SECURITY CHALLENGES AND RESPONSES IN THE ASIA–PACIFIC

Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen, I am delighted to be here today to deliver the Keynote Address at the Opening Session of the First General Meeting of the Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific (CSCAP).

Regional Security Situation

It is often said that the 21′ Century belongs to the Asia-Pacific. The projections support this claim. The Asia-Pacific countries are enjoying a period of rapid economic growth. By the year 2010, it is projected that East Asia alone will account for one-third of the global production growth. East Asian countries are also expected to generate up to 40% of the world’s new purchasing power and demand for imports. The Asia-Pacific region is projected to out-perform other regions of the world in economic growth.

The prospects are bright. But whether the Asia-Pacific fulfils its potential depends on whether there is a stable and secure international and regional environment. Countries cannot concentrate on economic development unless there is peace and stability.

The strategic landscape of the Asia-Pacific region has undergone fundamental changes over the past few years. The situation is likely to remain dynamic in the foreseeable future. Fortunately, the outlook is an optimistic one. While there are some areas of contention, the countries in the region are acutely aware that it is in their own interest to help maintain a regional environment which is conducive to further economic growth and development. This means broadening avenues of cooperation, and minimising or better managing issues which could lead to tension and hostilities. We see evidence of this in regional initiatives at the Track One or official level through forums such as the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum and the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF). At the Track Two or non-governmental level, discussions and cooperation are also taking place in forums such as CSCAP and the Western Pacific Naval Symposium (WPNS), which have as their objective the enhancement of regional security.

As the Asia-Pacific countries develop economically and the political relationships evolve and stabilise, the geostrategic landscape in the region will begin to take a more definite shape. The key challenge for all the Asia-Pacific countries is to manage the transition in a way that will foster a stable and peaceful environment.

The regional security landscape will be determined in large part by the triangular relationship among the three major players in the region, namely, the United States, China and Japan. How the relationship between each pair of countries develops will have a significant impact on security and stability not only of the two countries involved but also of the third country and the region.

As the sole superpower in the world today, the US plays a pivotal role. For many years, the military presence of the US has been a key factor for stability in the region. In the years ahead, the US military presence will be no less significant a factor for regional stability. The US military presence contributes to a stable environment which is conducive for economic activity and economic development. It is therefore reassuring that the US has acknowledged that it has vital interests in the Asia-Pacific and will continue to maintain the current level of military presence in the region. Only last week, President Clinton reiterated how the United States’ interests, both its security and its prosperity, are very closely tied to the future of the Asia-Pacific region.

President Clinton also recognised the vital importance of the relationship between the US and China. A strong China, with a significant political and economic status in global affair’s and potentially a military capability to match, is something the rest of the world will have to co-exist with. Whether we co-exist happily and work together for mutual benefit or whether the future will be characterised by tension and conflict will depend as much on how the US and the rest of the world deal with China as on China itself.

Japan too will have an important role to play in determining the future geopolitical landscape in the Asia-Pacific region. We are happy to note that the US-Japan security alliance will continue to be an important element contributing to regional peace and stability. The development of the relationship between Japan and China can be one of potentially vast economic benefit to both countries, Friendly relations marked by economic cooperation between Japan and China can also be an important underpinning for regional peace and stability.

Potential Areas of Tension

With the three major players — the United States, China and Japan — all committed to stability and cooperation, the outlook for the Asia-Pacific region is a bright one. But we cannot deny that there are areas of potential conflict in the region which could flare up quickly.

The situation on the Korean Peninsula is obviously of great concern to everyone.

The dispute over the Spratly islands is another potential hotspot. The Spratlys dispute is not only about sovereignty. It is also about the right of international shipping to navigate the waters around the Spratlys. The freedom of navigation is an issue of vital importance to Singapore and other countries in the region. We hope that the various claimants will abide by internationally accepted codes of conduct and resolve their territorial dispute by peaceful means. In the meantime, confidence-building measures and cooperative activities can help to reduce tensions.

A third area of uncertainty is the Taiwan Strait. This is a major area of concern as any conflict in the Strait will alter the strategic balance and have serious adverse effects on the whole region. The crisis last year demonstrated how quickly the situation can destabilise. Cool heads and rational calculations are necessary to manage this potentially difficult situation.

Responding to the Challenges

No country in the region would want to see the trend of dynamic economic growth disrupted and the promise of a better life for its people unfulfilled. It is therefore of great concern to all of us that regional peace and stability be preserved. So it is important for us to work together with one another as partners in the effort to enhance regional security and stability.

Singapore believes that regional stability and security can best be ensured by having a security architecture comprising strong bilateral relationships interwoven with multilateral security arrangements. Strong bilateral relationships should be fostered not only between countries in the region but also between regional countries and those outside the region which have an interest in the stability of the region. This network of bilateral relationships should be complemented by multilateral arrangements such as ASEAN, the ARF, APEC, and the Five Power Defence Arrangements (FPDA). Such relationships and arrangements help develop understanding and trust between and among countries, and foster an environment in which difficult issues can be discussed and disagreements resolved.

Bilateral Relationships

Strong bilateral relationships are the basic building blocks in the regional security architecture. Singapore enjoys close ties with many regional countries and cooperate with them in many sectors, including in the defence sector. These are relationships which go back many years. Over the years, the interactions and cooperation have fostered understanding and rapport and deepened the friendship between Singapore and our regional friends. Our defence cooperation extends to military training in countries such as Indonesia, Thailand and Brunei as our friends generously offer facilities which enable the Singapore Armed Forces to overcome the lack of training space in Singapore.

Singapore’s defence ties with friendly countries extend to countries outside ASEAN. Australia, New Zealand and the United States are Asia-Pacific countries with which Singapore has extensive defence cooperation within the context of strong bilateral relations. In these countries, the Singapore Armed Forces have access to valuable training facilities. Australia and New Zealand are our partners in the FPDA. In the case of the US, Singapore has allowed the US forces to use military facilities here so as to facilitate the US military presence in the region, which we regard as an important contribution to regional peace and stability. Our bilateral relationships with our friends, as well as the web of bilateral relationships our friends have among themselves, are all important threads in the strong fabric of regional peace and stability.

Multilateral Arrangements

Strong multilateral arrangements are equally important. ASEAN has shown how much can be achieved through cooperation for the benefit of its members and the region as a whole. ASEAN provides a forum for member countries to engage in frank discussions of issues, including security issues., The evolution of a tradition of consultation and consensus has helped to develop a higher level of understanding and trust among the member states. Cooperation in such things as the ASEAN Free Trade Area has brought about economic benefits for member states, and are in themselves confidence-building measures. A notable effort by ASEAN to promote regional stability is the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapons Free Zone (SEANWFZ) initiative. The SEANWFZ Treaty has now entered into force. It represents the contribution of ASEAN states to nuclear non-proliferation, and is consistent with ASEAN’s goal of making Southeast Asia a Zone of Peace; Freedom and Neutrality.

ASEAN is also the driving force behind the ASEAN Regional Forum. The ARF has elicited a significant level of interest because it is a forum for both regional and extra-regional countries to discuss security issues of common concern and interest. The ARF helps build up trust and fosters greater confidence among its members, so that any differences we may have are more likely to be resolved peacefully without the use of force. The ARF thus adds an important layer to the regional security framework.