Caught between interdependencies and a need for self-sufficiency, local ripple effects from international conflicts, the promises and perils of emerging technologies, and the unpredictability of extreme climate events – states are navigating an increasingly amorphous global landscape. For national security practitioners and policymakers, the devising of strategies and responses to threats is taking on a new complexity. The geopolitical fallout from the Israel-Hamas and the Russia-Ukraine conflicts has states assessing a range of national security policy responses, particularly for middle powers that manoeuvre spaces and strategies amidst big power contestations. Where it concerns ground operations, the spectre of grey zone tactics persists and evolves, interfering with security matters ranging from economics and trade, sensitive and strategic technology, and social cohesion. As global supply chains recover from the shock of COVID-19, new challenges arise in the wake of geopolitical tensions that reinforce and reshape existing alliances. Game changers in the form of AI and unpredictable extreme climate events have pushed security policymaking into unfamiliar territory fraught with uncertainty and conflicting voices.

In this milieu, we focus on emerging national security risks in relation to energy, economics and trade, supply chains, technology and digitalisation, social resilience, and the information domain. We consider how states’ existing economic and cultural clout could evolve, and where middle powers could find flex in the face of changing power dynamics. Would this create new national security dimensions, which would in turn require new approaches to risk assessment? We also ask how governments could effectively communicate these uncertainties to their populations and enhance resilience. Finally, we examine fresh possibilities for cooperation by states to help each other secure their own interests, and if emerging technologies present solutions.

Panel 1

Conflicts Abroad; Effects at Home: Security Implications and Lessons for States

Abstract: Amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas conflicts, there are myriad possible knock-on effects for states regarding energy security and international trade; existing religious, racial, ideological divides in societies; and communication and information domains. AI and climate change both have further potential to exacerbate these already disruptive knock-on effects. What lessons can be learned/need to be understood by national security agencies in approaching these threats in formulating policy responses, and how should these responses be communicated?

Panel 2

Looking for Latitude: Strategising Opportunities for Middle Powers in Uncertain Times

Abstract: Middle powers share mutual interests and challenges but are often limited in terms of manoeuvring space and strategies by big power contestation. The changing landscape of power dynamics – including ripple effects from the ongoing kinetic conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East – may result in middle powers feeling compelled to pick sides. However, it also presents opportunities for middle powers to flex their clout in multilaterals and blocs. How can middle powers now find the ground to address mutual national security challenges including technology security, climate security, and information security?

Panel 3

Navigating the Fog of Grey Zone Tactics

Abstract: ‘Grey zone’ tactics are deployed in the economic, technological/digital, social cohesion, and information domains. They contribute to an increasingly complex warfare landscape – particularly where AI and climate change serve as potential tactics force multipliers. What countermeasures could national security agencies mount in response to such tactics, and are there best practices or case studies to be adopted? Furthermore, how can states collaborate/leverage existing interdependencies on mounting countermeasures and deterrence?

Panel 4

International Developments in Supply Chain Resilience Amid De-Globalisation

Abstract: As the pandemic recedes into history, current global kinetic conflicts loom large. While COVID provided valuable lessons on supply chain security, it remains to be seen if these lessons remain relevant, or if they are evolving. What is the state of play for supply chain security for critical supplies, materials, and technology; what and where are the current vulnerabilities? Furthermore, how might climate change be a concurrent game changer in states’ efforts to secure supply chains, and what multilateral solutions could help states secure their national interests?

Panel 5

Securing the Energy Commons in the Face of Climate Change

Abstract: As states begin to make the transition to sustainable energy sources, new opportunities for investment present themselves. However, new security risks also appear to be emerging. These include geopolitical risks arising from the transition to sustainable energy sources, as well as the potential for cleantech companies to become dominant and monopolistic players in the domain (i.e., the ‘new digital giants’), which would bring risks to the energy commons due to their outsized influence. What could states do individually and collectively to optimise equitable access to clean energy for their populations? Further, where/what are the alliances on cooperation on cleantech – would these lead to monopolies, and exclude the developing world from the benefits of innovation?