Abstract

Thailand’s southern conflict continues to receive limited attention both nationally and internationally, despite producing one of the highest casualty rates in Southeast Asia. Since the resurgence of violent insurgency in 2004, more than 7,700 people have been killed and 14,700 injured in over 23,400 violent incidents.  In 2013, Thailand launched a formal peace dialogue with the Patani Malay National Revolutionary Front (BRN), which contributed significantly to a decline in violence. However, incidents have gradually increased in recent years, underscoring Bangkok’s inability to bring a permanent end to this protract, low-intensity conflict.

The political will of national leaders remains crucial in advancing a negotiated settlement and achieving sustainable peace. Thailand’s February 2026 general election produced a conservative, nationalist-leaning outcome, with the Bhumjaithai emerging as the core party in forming a new coalition government.  Drawing upon two-decades of monitoring developments in the violent ravaged region, this talk examines the trajectory of the Thai government’s approach to the southern conflict and explores what the recent conservative surge may mean for the prospect of conflict resolution in the Deep South.

About the Speaker

Rungrawee Chalermsripinyorat is a lecturer at the Institute for Peace Studies, Prince of Songkla University, in southern Thailand.  Her research focuses on peace processes, religion and conflict, civil society and peacebuilding and security sector reform, with a geographical emphasis on southern Thailand and Southeast Asia. Dr Rungrawee previously served as a political analyst with the Brussels-based think tank, the International Crisis Group. She holds an MA in Southeast Asian Studies from the National University of Singapore, an MA in Conflict Resolution in Divided Societies from King’s College London and a PhD in International, Political and Strategic Studies from the Australian National University.