Abstract

Like most governments around the world, Beijing is closely watching the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Guided by its “bottom-line thinking,” Beijing is preparing for a potential second “Trump shock.” While both the Republican and Democratic parties have reached a broad consensus on China since Trump’s first term—viewing China as America’s principal strategic competitor and implementing a “new containment strategy”—from Beijing’s perspective, a second Trump administration would likely bring greater unpredictability and instability compared to a Kamala Harris presidency. This volatility could have a more disruptive impact on U.S.-China relations and the global order at large.

In light of its dealings with the Trump administration during his first term and the hardline positions Trump and his key advisers have adopted on the campaign trail, Beijing anticipates that a second Trump presidency would portend even tougher and more confrontational policies. These would likely target China in key areas such as trade, technology, military security, and ideology, posing serious threats to China’s sovereignty, security, and developmental interests. How Beijing defines its overarching objectives and strategic responses, how it diversifies its policy toolkit across political, economic, military, and diplomatic fronts, and how it coordinates with other nations to mitigate the impact of a second “Trump shock” will have far-reaching consequences for U.S.-China relations, regional stability, and global prosperity in coming years.

About the Speaker

Chen Dongxiao is the President of Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (SIIS). Dr Chen got his PhD from Fudan University. He receives a special government subsidy of the State Council. Dr Chen specialises in the studies of United Nations, China’s foreign policy and China-US relations. He has led numerous research projects commissioned by China National Foundation of Social Sciences Studies, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Finance, Taiwan Affairs Office of State Council and so on. Dr Chen has published extensively on the UN reform and China’s multilateral diplomacy. He is the chief editor of China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies (CQISS), a flagship English journal on China’s diplomacy published by SIIS and World Scientific Publishing House (Singapore). He is also the adjunct professor of Shanghai International Studies University.

Dr Chen is the high level advisor of Independent Team of Advisory (ITA) for ECOSOC Dialogue on longer-term positioning of United Nations Development System (2016), the member of ASEAN Regional Forum’s (ARF) Expert and Eminent Person (EEP), senior advisor on economic diplomacy for China’s Foreign Ministry, senior advisor of International Business Leaders Advisory Council for the Mayor of Shanghai (IBLAC). He also holds the position as Vice Chair of China National Association of International Relations.