Abstract

Donald Trump’s return to the White House on 24 January 2025 has ended the post-1945 Pax Americana which underpinned eighty years of relative global stability and expanding opportunity. Under the banner of ‘America First’, he has upended the rules of global commerce and endorsed the notion that big powers have spheres of influence, instilling fear among smaller states that they could once again fall victim to the predations of the large. His statements and actions have destroyed the political trust that had underpinned America’s alliances in Europe and Asia.

Will we now return to a more disordered world in which today’s big three – the United States, China and Russia – assert their power as they see fit, and smaller states cope as best they can? Or are we at the dawn of a new period, in which mid-sized states escape the orbit of the big and evolve into ‘middle powers’ that can help the world chart a different future?

To address these questions, the lecture will assess whether the big three are as powerful as they seem, and mid-sized and smaller countries as powerless as they fear. It will delve into the sources of international influence and national resilience in the second quarter of the twenty-first century; including the strengths and weaknesses of international institutions, and the impacts on the global balance of power of the ongoing energy transition and the race to harness transformative technological innovation. The lecture will also offer some broad recommendations for how the world’s emerging middle powers can work together to convert this period of uncertainty into a new balance of international power, one that lays some of the ghosts of the 20th century to rest.

About the Speaker

Robin Niblett is a Distinguished Fellow with Chatham House (the Royal Institute of International Affairs, London), where he was the Director and Chief Executive for 15 years (2007 – 2022).

In September 2026, he will become the Warden (head) of New College, University of Oxford, one of the university’s oldest and largest colleges.

Robin is also Distinguished Fellow with the Asia Society Policy Institute, and Senior Adviser to the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) in Washington DC, where he previously served as the Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, overseeing all research and operations, as well as Director of the Europe Program.

A leading expert on the relations between Europe, the US, and Asia, he is the author of The New Cold War: How the Contest Between the US and China Will Shape Our Century (Atlantic Books, 2024), as well as numerous Chatham House and CSIS reports on European, British and US foreign policy.

Alongside his policy work, Robin serves on the International Advisory Board of Brown Advisory, the US investment firm, and was Senior Adviser for geopolitics and international affairs with Hakluyt, the London-based strategic advisory firm, from 2022 through 2024.

Currently a member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Future Council on Geopolitics and its Co-Chair (2020-22), Robin has served as Chair and member of other WEF Councils since 2012.

Robin was appointed Knight Commander of the Order of St Michael and St George in The Queen’s Platinum Jubilee 2022 Birthday Honours for services to international relations and British foreign policy.