Abstract

Strong geopolitical competition coupled with rapid military-technological developments generates both risks and opportunities for small and middle powers (SMPs) in Europe and Asia. At the same time, the character of war is undergoing profound change, as illustrated by current, recent, and emerging conflict theatres worldwide. These dynamics compel defence planners to reassess strategic postures and recalibrate force structures. Drawing on insights from visits to Armenia, Taiwan, and Ukraine, this roundtable explores the challenges of contemporary warfare and their implications for SMPs. The discussion features Dr Tim Sweijs (author of The War of Tomorrow, and editor of Defence Planning for Small and Middle Powers and Beyond Ukraine: Debating the Future of War)

About the Speaker

Dr Tim Sweijs is the Director of Research at The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS). His work is multidisciplinary in nature and straddles political science, science and technology, strategic studies, and war studies. He is the initiator, creator and author of numerous books, articles and studies on strategic foresight, interstate coercion (compellence and deterrence), war’s past, present and future, emerging technologies, international norms and regimes, alliances and alignments, defence and national security planning for small and middle powers, and strategy and capability development.

At HCSS, he is responsible for the overall research portfolio of the entire institute, spearheading a staff of over 30 researchers and a large network of affiliated subject matter experts, working on international and national security. He has advised international organisations, governments and defence departments across the globe. He has provided expert testimony to the United Nations Security Council, the European Parliament, the Dutch Parliament, as well as to NATO’s Parliamentary Assembly. He regularly comments on international affairs in national and international media and guest-lectures at the Netherlands Defence Academy, Leiden University, and King’s College London.

Dr Sweijs is also a Research Affiliate at the Center for International Strategy, Technology and Policy in the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs at the Georgia Institute for Technology in the United States. He serves as a board member at the European Initiative for Security Studies where he chairs the War, Coercion and Statecraft Working Group. He is also the Scientific Advisor to the Secretariat of the Global Commission on Responsible  Artificial Intelligence in the Military Domain, an initiative of the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He holds degrees in War Studies (PhD, MA), International Relations (Msc) and Philosophy (BA) from King’s College, London and the University of Amsterdam.

Recent book projects include De Oorlog van Morgen [The War of Tomorrow] (Balans 2025), Beyond Ukraine: Debating the Future of War (Oxford University Press / Hurst 2024), Defence Planning for Small and Middle Powers: Rethinking Force Development in An Age of Disruption (Routledge 2024), The Use and Utility of Ultimata in Coercive Diplomacy (Palgrave Macmillan 2023) (www.coercivediplomacy.com), Deterrence in the 21st Century: Insights from Theory and Practice (Asser-Springer 2021) and The Conduct of War in the 21st Century Kinetic, Connected and Synthetic (Routledge 2021).