Abstract

On 14 February 2024, Indonesians will go to the polls to cast their votes for the presidential election and choose the successor of incumbent President Joko Widodo (Jokowi). Voters will choose from three presidential candidates: Anies Baswedan – former Governor of Jakarta,  Lieutenant General (retired) Prabowo Subianto – Minister of Defence, and  Ganjar Pranowo – former Governor of Central Java. Prabowo has selected Gibran Rakabuming – Jokowi’s eldest son as his vice-presidential running mate. Meanwhile, Anies had chosen Muhaimin Iskandar (chair of the National Awakening Party (PKB)) and Ganjar picked Mahfud MD (Coordinating Minister for Political, Legal, and Security Affairs), as their respective VP running mates.

Already the campaigns have been marked by several ‘hot button’ issues, especially on the circumstances leading to Gibran’s VP nomination. Taking advantage of Jokowi’s high approval rating, the Prabowo-Gibran ticket is aiming for a ‘one-round’ election victory (receiving more 50 percent of the votes plus one) on 14 February.

This seminar will explore the following questions and more:

• Is the ‘one-round’ election scenario likely to happen? If it does not, who would be the two candidates likely to contest the second round?
• Which presidential candidate(s) would attract the most support from Indonesia’s multiple interest groups?
• How would Muslim voters’ matter in this election? Which candidate(s) would they support?
• What are the likely implications of the presidential election results on Indonesia’s domestic and foreign policy in the medium term?

About the Speaker

Irman Gurmilang Lanti is a Visiting Senior Fellow at the Indonesia Programme, RSIS. He is also a Senior Lecturer at the Faculty of Social and Political Sciences, Padjadjaran University, Bandung, Indonesia. He holds a PhD from the University of British Columbia (2004) and a Master of Arts from Elliott School of International Affairs (1996).

Dr Irman has an extensive network with Indonesians policymakers, senior politicians and leaders of Indonesia Islamic organizations. He held a number of senior positions in the Deepening Democracy project of the Governance Unit, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Indonesia Office, from 2006 to 2012. Dr Irman has worked as a researcher with a number of public policy think tanks, including the Centre for Information and Development Studies (CIDES), the Habibie Center, and the Indonesian Institute. His research interests include Islam in Indonesia; Indonesian politics; ASEAN and Southeast Asia politics; and International relations.