Abstract

The disputes in the South China Sea have long been viewed as a litmus test for ASEAN’s capacity to maintain and enhance the region’s peace, security, and stability. Transforming the potentials for conflict to one of cooperation – without prejudice to the deeply held position of each of the claimant states – provided the underpinning for decades-long efforts involving ASEAN (collectively – both claimant and non-claimant states) and China. The ground-breaking 1992 ASEAN Declaration on the South China Sea and the frequently cited 2002 ASEAN-China Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea have been followed by a stream of statements and declarations, including on the yet to be agreed Code of Conduct (COC). The complexities of issues and interests clearly militate against early conclusion of the latter. However, with the passage of time, there is a real risk that the diplomatic processes are being far outpaced by events at sea. A growing disconnect is discernible between promises and reality. The potential for miscalculation, of so-called unintended conflict, is real. Not least, the sense of common ASEAN ownership of the issue seems fraying. In the face of such conditions, is it time for a reset? A renewed direct push by the leaders of ASEAN and China to once again place diplomacy at the forefront and conclude the COC – to turn their direct attention on the outstanding issues and provide political directives – and urgently realize the objective of the South China Sea as a sea of peace.

About the Speaker

Marty Natalegawa was appointed as Distinguished Visiting Fellow in the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies on 1 July 2022.

Dr Natalegawa holds a D.Phil. from the Australian National University; an M.Phil. from University of Cambridge; and a BSc (Hons) from the London School of Economics.

Dr Natalegawa served as Foreign Minister of Indonesia (2009 – 2014). Previously, he served as Permanent Representative/Ambassador of Indonesia to the United Nations (UN); Ambassador to the UK and also to Ireland. Within the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Indonesia, among others, he served as Director General for ASEAN Cooperation and Director for International Organizations.

Within ASEAN, he has been instrumental in pushing for the ASEAN Community and was an early advocate of an ASEAN role in the Indo-Pacific through the concept of “dynamic equilibrium”. Throughout, including as Foreign Minister, he actively promoted the management and resolution of potential conflicts in the region.

Within the context of the UN, he served, among others, as President of the Security Council in November 2007 and led Indonesia’s delegation at numerous multilateral negotiations, both within the UN and beyond. He was instrumental in securing Indonesia’s ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) in 2012.

He served in the UNSG’s High Level Panel on Global Response to Health Crises and UN President of the General Assembly’s 72nd Session Team of External Advisors.

He is a member of the UN Secretary-General’s High Level Advisory Board on Mediation. He also served as a member of the UN Secretary-General’s Advisory Board on Disarmament and the Board of Trustees of the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research.

He is also presently Asia Society Policy Institute Distinguished Fellow; a member of the International Academic Advisory Committee of the Oxford Centre for Islamic Studies; the Southeast Asia Advisory Board of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS – Washington, D.C.); Global Advisory Committee of the Jeju Forum; the Board of Directors of the Global Centre for Pluralism, Ottawa; and is a Prominent Research Scholar of the Bank of Indonesia Institute. He is also the Chairperson of the Asia Pacific Leaders Network (APLN) for nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament.

He is the author of “Does ASEAN Matter? A View from Within” (ISEAS Publishing – 2018).

Dr Natalegawa has been cited as “one of the most respected foreign policy and international security thinkers of his generation, both within Indonesia, in South-east Asia, and in the broader Asia-Pacific region”.