Abstract

Israel and Iran have been locked in a vicious cycle of hostility for more than four decades. Their recent moves in countering each other directly have taken a dangerous regional and global turn in a highly polarised world. Israel has engaged in a strategy to change the regional order in its favour and Iran has sought to preserve the status quo in pursuit of its interests. Both protagonists see each other as an existential threat. They have tested one another’s strength and vulnerability, and their conflict entails the risk of igniting an uncontrollable regional inferno with global implications. Yet, neither has found it imperative to divert from a path of confrontation, with potential major power involvement. Their enmity represents a clash of not only ideological and geopolitical perceptions but also what each side regards as a paradigm for mutual deterrence based on a regional balance of power.

To make sense of the Israeli-Iranian animosity and its likely trajectory, this seminar focuses critically on three fundamental issues. They are the variables that have brought the two rivals to serious blows; the factors that could have prevented them from catapulting in this direction; and prospects for the future of their relations as well as regional stability and security. The aim is not to provide a comprehensive picture but rather a snapshot of how divergent approaches to national and regional security by the two foes have once again positioned the hydro-carbon rich but volatile Middle East for potentially unsettling changes that could shake the global order.

About the Speaker

Amin Saikal is an Adjunct Senior Fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU), an Emeritus Professor of Middle Eastern and Central Asian Studies, and the Founding Director of the Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Australian National University (ANU). He also serves as an Adjunct Professor of Social Sciences at the University of Western Australia.

Professor Saikal is a recipient of the Order of Australia (AM) for his contributions to international education and for founding the Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies. He is a Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences in Australia (FASSA) and the winner of the Peter Baume Award, ANU’s highest honor for distinguished academic achievement.

His recent books include How to Lose a War: The Story of America’s Intervention in Afghanistan (Yale University Press, 2024), Iran Rising: The Survival and Future of the Islamic Republic (Princeton University Press, 2021), Islam Beyond Borders: Umma in World Politics (Cambridge University Press, 2019), and The Spectre of Afghanistan: The Security of Central Asia (Bloomsbury, 2021). His previous works cover a wide range of geopolitical and historical topics, with notable titles such as Modern Afghanistan: A History of Struggle and Survival (I.B. Tauris, 2012) and The Rise and Fall of the Shah: Iran from Autocracy to Religious Rule (Princeton University Press, 2009).

A prolific writer, Professor Saikal has contributed articles to leading academic journals and has written numerous opinion pieces for major global outlets, including The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Guardian, and Project Syndicate. He is also a frequent commentator on global media networks such as BBC, ABC, and CNA, providing insights into Middle Eastern and Central Asian affairs.