Abstract

This seminar will examine China’s current political economy which prioritizes security, control, and industrial resilience over fast GDP growth or profit. At the same time, it is trying to curb overcapacity and destructive price wars through an “anti-involution” campaign. Consumption remains weak, so growth still relies heavily on exports and state investment. Real estate and local banking risks are being managed through targeted, modest interventions rather than broad stimulus. The seminar will also look at future trends, including the potential impact of President Xi’s expected fourth term (2027-2032) and factional politics on China’s political economy.

About the Speaker

Tan Kong Yam is Emeritus Professor of Economics at the Nanyang Technological University in Singapore. He was a board member of Changi Airport Group (2014-2024).

From 1985-88, he was an assistant director in the Monetary Authority of Singapore in charge of exchange rate policy. He was the chief assistant to Dr Goh Keng Swee, the late deputy Prime Minister of Singapore invited by Mr Deng Xiaoping to advise China on economic development strategy (1985-95).

From 2002 to 2005, he was a senior economist at the World Bank office in Beijing where he worked on the 11th Five Year Plan with the State Council. Prior to that, he was the chief economist of the Singapore government (1999-2002).

He was also the director of the Asia Competitiveness Institute at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy (2010-2020). In 2018, the Institute completed a major study project on “Business Environment of 28 Indian States” for PM Modi’s office.

He has taught in the mayor program in NTU for over 10 years. His students are mayors and senior government officials from China doing their MPA program in Singapore. He has taught over 6,000 officials, businessmen and entrepreneurs from China in various programs over the past 25 years.

He is a graduate of Princeton (1975-79, class of 1931 scholar, Paul Volcker Thesis prize) and Stanford University where he completed his Master and PhD in three years (1980-83).

His research interests are in international trade and finance, economic reforms in China. He has published twelve books and articles in major international journals. He has also consulted for many organizations including Temasek, GIC, IBM, China Construction Bank.