Abstract

The 17th Sabah State Election (PRN17), scheduled for nomination on 15 November and polling on 29 November 2025, is unfolding within a highly complex and competitive political arena involving major federal and state-level coalitions, national and local Sabahan parties, and independent candidates. With 73 seats contested and 37 required to form a simple majority, PRN17 represents an inflection point in Sabah’s political trajectory.

Core issues expected to influence voter behaviour include demands for full implementation of the Malaysia Agreement 1963 (MA63), state autonomy, revenue distribution arrangements, and petroleum royalty claims. Voter sentiment has also been affected by ongoing corruption scandals which have eroded trust toward the incumbent coalition, especially among young and urban voters. Situated in the post “Langkah Kinabalu” 2023 context that produced anti-party hopping legislation, PRN17 serves as a critical test of Sabahans’ aspirations for political reform, institutional stability, and the degree of autonomy desired vis-à-vis federal-centred coalition frameworks.

This webinar picks up from our scene-setting webinar in February 2025 on PRN17. Speaker Mr Hisommudin Bakar will share findings from his study, which aims to (1) identify voting patterns across demographic and geographic segments throughout all state constituencies; and (2) analyse key variables shaping electoral decisions including candidate attributes, campaign machinery strength, and dominant issue framing. Integrating quantitative surveys and qualitative in-depth interviews, the study provides empirical grounds for understanding the dynamics and forecasting the outcome of PRN17. At this webinar, he will present his key empirical findings, synthesis, and substantive meaning extracted from the dynamics of the Sabah State Election campaign observed thus far.

About the Speaker

Hisommudin Bakar is Executive Director of ILHAM Centre, an independent Malaysian research organisation specialising in political studies, voter behaviour, and public opinion analysis. Under his leadership, ILHAM Centre has become one of the most referenced national institutions in Malaysia for empirical election analysis; informing policymakers, academic institutions, media organisations, political actors, and international research communities.

Since 2006, he has led more than 150 field-based studies involving general elections, state elections, and major socio-political surveys, including the Sabah State Election 2020, Malaysia’s 14th and 15th General Elections, and other critical state-level studies. Most recently, he is leading ILHAM Centre’s comprehensive empirical research for the upcoming Sabah State Election 2025, scheduled for polling on 29 November, making Sabah the latest strategic testing ground to analyse voting behaviour, issue framing, youth sentiment, and political realignment post-GE15. His research approach integrates both quantitative and qualitative methodologies to accurately capture the pulse of Malaysian society, including advanced election projection modelling, opinion swing mapping, and assessment of campaign and machinery mobilisation dynamics.

He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Shariah and Islamic Political Science from the University of Malaya, and a Master of Philosophy (MPhil) in Strategic and Security Studies from Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia. He is currently expanding ILHAM’s research agenda to regional and global platforms with focus on next-generation political research methodology, including AI-driven analytics and adaptive political forecasting.