Abstract 

The Johor state election is scheduled for 11 July 2026, with early voting on 7 July and candidate nominations on 27 June. The United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), which leads the Barisan Nasional coalition, is expected to be returned to power, with the key question being the size of its winning margin. The performance of Barisan Nasional, vis-à-vis that of its federal partner, Pakatan Harapan led by PM Anwar Ibrahim, and Malay-majority opposition Perikatan Nasional led by Parti Islam se-Malaysia (PAS) will be keenly watched. How Barisan and Harapan manage the outcome of the state election will in turn shape their continued working relationship at the federal level.

This webinar will analyse party strategies, the issues at stake, and voter sentiment in Johor. It will also consider cooperation and competition dynamics among the contesting coalitions. It will discuss the potential outcomes and their implications for political stability, policy continuity, and federal–state relations. It will also consider coalition durability, and electoral competitiveness as the country heads towards the next state and general elections.

About the Speaker

Ibrahim “Ben” Suffian is Programs Director at Merdeka Center, an opinion research firm which he co-founded. Ben is a prominent analyst and commentator on Malaysian politics, widely respected for his work at the Center.  Through its public opinion surveys and analyses on politics and public policy, the Center seeks to improve the quality of public debate, widen public participation in the political process, and contribute to the formation of a more coherent civil society.