US Presidential Election 2020 – Research and Analyses

February 2021

Adam Garfinkle, RSIS distinguished visiting fellow and founding editor of The American Interest, wrote that competitive politicisation of the United States foreign service and related agencies illustrates that institutional decay in the US is outliving the Trump era.
Read more in RSIS Commentary “Politicisation of US Foreign Service: Institutional Decay?”

January 2021

Chris Cheang, senior fellow at RSIS, wrote that given the tense relationship between Russia and the US in the last few years, it is tempting to assume that a divided, chaotic and increasingly inward-looking US, would be in Russia’s interest. However, this is a flawed assumption. The election of Joseph Biden as president is unlikely to change Russia’s perception.
Read more in RSIS Commentary “A Divided, Chaotic US: In Russia’s Interest?”

Cung Vu, visiting senior fellow at RSIS, wrote in his commentary that President Biden has announced his nomination of Eric Lander as his chief science advisor and director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) and at the same time elevated this dual-hatted position to a Cabinet rank. This reflects the desire of the new administration to give science a prominent role to guide its strategy and policy.
Read more in RSIS Commentary “Biden’s Science Policy: U-Turn from Trump”

Adam Garfinkle, RSIS distinguished visiting fellow and founding editor of The American Interest, wrote that the pre-Inaugural militarisation of Washington, DC is necessary under the circumstances, but may outlive its usefulness in due course. The optic, meanwhile, is disheartening.
Read more in RSIS Commentary “The Besieged Capital: Militarisation of Washington DC”

Irm Haleem, wrote that for a country that has historically presented itself as a secular, liberal democracy, the audacity of the storming of a US government building by such a mob not only shatters the image of America as the custodian of liberal democracy worldwide but presents itself as a kind of an American “blasphemy”.
Read more in RSIS Commentary “Rampage at the US Capitol: Historic Second Impeachment”

December 2020

PS Suryanarayana, adjunct senior fellow at RSIS, wrote that China’s centrality in US president-elect Joseph Biden’s likely foreign policy is universally expected. As he deals with China, India’s recent emergence as America’s ‘global partner’ may become relevant too. With the latest China-India border crisis remaining unresolved, a critical challenge awaits him in Asia.
Read more in RSIS Commentary “The Biden Presidency – Potential China-India Dilemma?”

Chris Cheang, senior fellow at RSIS, noted that President Putin congratulated US President-elect Joseph Biden on 15 December 2020, after the Electoral College confirmed his victory. Putin was the last world power leader to convey his good wishes. It signalled that Russia does not expect ties with the US under the Biden administration to deteriorate any further.
Read more in RSIS Commentary “Russo-US Ties Under the Biden Presidency”

November 2020

Deep K Datta-Ray, visiting senior fellow at RSIS, wrote that significant changes are underway as the fundamental premise in electoral politics and inter-state relations is moving towards an unorthodox model exemplified by Donald Trump, as he continues to break norms in a bid to build a dedicated support base. His antics have magnified the implications of the post-globalisation era.
Read more in RSIS Commentary “Post-Globalisation and Trump”

Tan See Seng, professor of International Relations at RSIS, wrote that many observers anticipate major reversals in US foreign policy following Joe Biden’s win in the US presidential election on 3 November 2020. But for the ASEAN region, Biden’s approach will likely be characterised by both change and continuity relative to that of the Trump administration.
Read more in RSIS Commentary “What Might ASEAN Expect from Biden?”

Zhang Baohui, professor of Political Science at Lingnan University, wrote that as Joe Biden fights to claim his presidency, analysts are already debating what changes in foreign policy he will introduce on China. Will he pursue a different China policy, shaped more by his personality? Or will he be constrained by the international system?
Read more in RSIS Commentary “The Biden Presidency: A Different China Policy?”

Nah Liang Tuang, research fellow with the Military Studies Programme at RSIS, wrote that with the incoming Biden administration, Pyongyang will likely remind Washington that the Kim regime will not be ignored or underestimated. The region should brace itself for North Korean destabilising action meant to communicate this.
Read more in RSIS Commentary “North Korea: Instability under Biden?”

Irm Haleem, assistant professor in the Strategic Studies Programme at RSIS, wrote that ultimately, the conclusion of the 2020 US Presidential Election depends on how the American system lives up to the challenges of the time – the coronavirus pandemic and its unprecedented disruption of society and economy, and the ego of Donald Trump. There are three possibilities ahead.
Read more in RSIS Commentary “Flaws of the Individual or the System”

October 2020

Adam Garfinkle, RSIS distinguished visiting fellow and founding editor of The American Interest, wrote that political polling in the United States is neither as reliable nor as harmless as most observers suppose. Technology has made that more true than ever in recent years.
Read more in RSIS Commentary “Polling the Politicians: Pitfalls and Perils”

September 2020

Tan See Seng, professor of International Relations at RSIS, wrote that should Joe Biden become the next president of America, what might his China policy look like? A Biden approach to Xi Jinping’s China could have three possible dimensions.
Read more in RSIS Commentary “How Will Biden Respond to China?”

Adam Garfinkle, RSIS distinguished visiting fellow and founding editor of The American Interest, wrote that although several presidential elections in American history have been troubled procedurally, no election looks as doomed to cause trouble as the one to be held, presumably, on 3 November 2020.
Read more in RSIS Commentary “An Election Doomed to Cause Harm?”

January 2021

Alexander R Arifianto, research fellow with the Indonesia Programme at RSIS, wrote that Joe Biden’s victory in November’s US presidential election signals possible changes in the country’s Indo-Pacific strategy and its bilateral relationships with ASEAN members. Its relationship with Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest democracy, will be of utmost importance if the new US administration hopes to achieve its goal of promoting democratic norms and values in the region.
Read more in the article “Climbing Down From A Summit Of Democratic Expectations” in Eurasia Review

December 2020

Adam Garfinkle, distinguished visiting fellow at RSIS, wrote that the Electoral College has sealed Joe Biden’s presidential victory, but the assault on US democratic institutions threatens a new normal for future elections and signals a dangerous erosion of foundational civic attitudes.
Read more in the article “Only Winners and Losers in America’s Zero-sum Politics” in The Straits Times

Collin Koh, research fellow and coordinator of United States Programme at RSIS, wrote that China has been building its military presence in the South China Sea for some years now. Much of that happened under Obama’s watch.
Read more in article “Trump’s Playbook on China in the South China Sea has Some Lessons for the Biden Administration” in Channel NewsAsia Online

November 2020

Joseph Liow Chinyong, dean of the College of Humanities, Arts and Social Sciences, Tan Kah Kee Chair in Comparative and International Politics, and research adviser at RSIS, wrote that in seeking to rebuild ties, the new team in Washington has to factor in how the political landscape has changed in the past four years.
Read more in article “A Reshuffled Deck Awaiting the Biden Administration in Asia” in The Straits Times

Joseph Liow Chinyong, dean of the College of Humanities, Arts and Social Sciences, Tan Kah Kee Chair in Comparative and International Politics, and research adviser at RSIS, wrote that President-elect Joe Biden will restore a more traditional style of diplomacy to the US, but domestic considerations will weigh heavily on American foreign policy — and Washington’s approach to Southeast Asia.
Read more in article “Now More than Ever, Southeast Asia Values a Firm American Security Presence” in ThinkChina

Han Fook Kwang, senior fellow at RSIS, wrote that the world, including Singapore, cannot turn its back on the US, but it needs to understand it because it has an outsized role in determining critical issues that matter to all of us, including its relationship with China, climate change and the pandemic. Leaders must have strong character shaped by a moral purpose to serve the people. In a divided world, these qualities matter more than ever.
Read more in article “Lesson for Singapore from US Election” in The Straits Times

Adrian Ang U-Jin, research fellow with the US Programme at RSIS, wrote that it may well be over bar the crying and shouting, but all signs point to the final ten weeks of the Trump presidency being disruptive, a fitting if unfortunate end to an administration that began its term with the theme of “American chaos.”
Read more in article “The Trump Transition” in Election Watch (The University of Melbourne)

Adam Garfinkle, distinguished visiting fellow at RSIS, discussed the beauties, tragedies, and occasional madness of America. For example, two signal beauties stand out from the recent election – the first is that the American system of the separation of powers has produced a deeply rooted independent judiciary, one that in this case will render it impossible for the Republicans to steal the presidential election via big lies about mail-in ballots, legal chicanery, and mob intimidation.
Read more in the article “The Beauties, Tragedies and Madness of the US Presidential Election” in The Straits Times

Ong Keng Yong, Executive Deputy Chairman at RSIS, wrote that regardless of who the next US president is, then, the current strategic environment—defined by a more-inward looking America and a more aggressive China—presents significant challenges to advancing a meaningful US-ASEAN strategic partnership.
Read more in article “Lingering Challenges in the US-ASEAN Strategic Partnership” in Council of Councils

Nah Liang Tuang, research fellow with the Military Studies Programme at RSIS, wrote that Pyongyang will want to remind the Biden administration that the North is not to be ignored. The region should brace for destabilising action..
Read more in article “How Will North Korea Greet the Biden Administration?” in The Diplomat

October 2020

Raffaello Pantucci, senior fellow with the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research at RSIS, wrote that the stage has been set for the continuation of a persistent problem in America that will continue to cloud and confuse the political debate and sadly result in domestic terrorism.
Read more in article “In the US, Terror is Increasingly Coming from Inside the Country” in The Straits Times

Joseph Liow Chinyong, dean of the College of Humanities, Arts and Social Sciences, Tan Kah Kee Chair in Comparative and International Politics, and research adviser at RSIS, said changes are needed no matter who becomes the 46th president of the United States after the Nov 3 election.
Read more in article “US’ Asia Policy – 3 Areas for a Rethink” in The Straits Times

Evan Resnick, assistant professor at RSIS, wrote that all of US President Donald Trump’s predecessors shrewdly attempted to balance their foreign policy between idealism and realism. Trump is the first president to eschew both idealism and realism, with deleterious consequences.
Read more in the article “Donald Trump’s ‘Exceptional’ Foreign Policy” in Eurasia Review

Joseph Liow Chinyong and Amanda Trea Phua, RSIS’ research advisor and senior analyst with the United States Programme respectively at RSIS, wrote that in terms of the larger canvass of American foreign policy however, the fact is that ultimately, even in the event of a Biden victory in the November elections, any prospect of a more robust and predictable policy towards Asia could well be determined by, and dependent on, a degree of domestic political consensus in the US that today is all but elusive.
Read more in the article “Contemplating US Policy on China and the Indo-Pacific: Some Thoughts Regarding a Possible Biden Administration” in The Asan Forum

Adam Garfinkle, distinguished visiting fellow at RSIS, wrote that the outlook is grim given Republican anxieties and actions ahead of Nov 3 polls. Trump’s illness adds new complexities to the situation.
Read more in the article “Is the End Nigh for American Democracy?” in The Straits Times

September 2020

Michael Raska, assistant professor and coordinator of the Military Transformations Programme at RSIS, wrote that ultimately, the line between low-end and high-end North Korean cyberspace operations has been blurred, and the question is whether they are sufficient to degrade US cyber defenses. With the ongoing political and economic crisis in the US, however, unrestricted cyber operations may increase the propensity for a strategic surprise.
Read more in the article “Could North Korea Hack into US Elections?” in The Korea Herald

July 2020

Adam Garfinkle, distinguished visiting fellow at RSIS, wrote that democrats need new thinking for new circumstances. The conditions are not there for a return to the US grand strategy of old.
Read more in the article “Joe Biden’s New/Old Statecraft” in The Straits Times

January 2021

Hoo Tiang Boon, assistant professor with the China Programme, and coordinator of the MSc (Asian Studies) Progamme at RSIS, said that some Trump-era policies could even serve as useful “bargaining chips” against China.
Read more in The Straits Times “US, China Test the Line on Taiwan”

Adrian Ang U-Jin, research fellow with the US Programme at RSIS, pointed out three reasons on why the Democrats insists on impeaching Trump. One of the reasons is that the Democrats believe that Trump must be punished for his actions that caused the Capitol riots. They believe that the constitutional order must be maintained, and that no one can harm the country without being punished to prevent others from following suit.
Read more in Lianhe Zaobao “Three Reasons the Democrats Insists on Impeaching Trump, But Success Rate is Low”

Adrian Ang U-Jin, research fellow with the US Programme at RSIS, gave an interview on BFM 89.9 business station, where he discussed on the Capitol Siege.
Listen to the Radio Interview “The Capitol, Stormed”

Adrian Ang U-Jin, research fellow with the US Programme at RSIS, discussed the Capitol Siege during a video interview with Astro Awani.
Watch the Video Interview “Capitol Siege (Part 3) – US, A Weakened Superpower?”

James Char, associate research fellow with the China Programme at RSIS, said that even though the US-China rivalry will likely soften somewhat after Joe Biden assumes power, Beijing will continue to be wary of Washington as it pushes ahead with enhancing its military capabilities to challenge US supremacy in the western Pacific.
Read more in The Straits Times “Xi Jinping’s Priorities for 2021: The Economy and COVID-19”

December 2020

Evan Resnick, assistant professor at RSIS, gave an interview on Channel NewsAsia’s Asia First, where he discussed about the US politics following the Presidential Election.
Watch the Video Interview “US Politics” (01:15:00 to 01:22:05)

Adrian Ang U-Jin, research fellow with the US Programme at RSIS, said that compared to next Monday’s Electoral College voting day, the “safe harbor” deadline on December 8 is more critical. This is because Congress must confirm the election results of all states within the safe harbor period before reviewing the Electoral College votes in January. After Safe Harbor Day, state courts generally no longer accept new lawsuits challenging the election results
Read more in Lianhe Zaobao “The US Electoral College To be Voted on Monday to Determine the 46th President”

Tan See Seng, professor of International Relations at RSIS, wrote that US joining the CPTPP is unlikely to happen immediately, given resistance to trade deals within Biden’s own party. But there are some basic steps Biden can take to put the US back on an equal footing in the region. For starters, Biden will do well just to show up regularly at the ASEAN meetings, which Obama wasn’t able to do due to his inability to avoid the fiscal cliff in the US, and which Trump refused to do, preferring instead to send [Vice-President Mike] Pence.
Read more in South China Morning Post “China’s ASEAN Influence Sets Stage For New Superpower Battleground with US, as the Ball Shifts to Biden’s Court”

James Dorsey, senior fellow at RSIS, gave an interview on BFM 89.9 business station, where he discussed on the Iran nuclear deal following President-elect Joe Biden has already made overtures to restart negotiations.
Listen to the Radio Interview “Cleaning Up a Mess”

November 2020

Li Mingjiang, associate professor and coordinator of China Programme at RSIS, discussed on the US-China relations in a video interview with Mediacorp Focus.
Watch the video interview “US-China Relations” (4:45 onwards)

Collin Koh, research fellow and coordinator US Programme at RSIS, said the immediate priorities for the Biden administration will likely be domestic to try to unify a fractured, deeply polarised country.
Read more in Channel NewsAsia Online “The Big Read: A Fractious America and a Few Urgent Matters of Global Proportions Await Joe Biden”

Collin Koh, research fellow and coordinator US Programme at RSIS, said while Mr Biden’s first 100 days will likely take a domestic focus, issues such as Covid-19 and others have a strong linkage to external dimensions. Pandemic control will necessitate cooperation with other countries.
Read more in TODAY “The Big Read in Short: Joe Biden’s Massive to-do List”

Evan Resnick, assistant professor at RSIS, assessed that while Biden is likely to continue to pressure China to reform its economy and level the playing field, he is not a fan of protectionism, and will work aggressively to rescind the tariffs because they are counterproductive, and end the trade war that Trump started.
Read more in The Korea Herald “Biden Will be Tough on China, But Likely to Rescind Tariffs, Experts Say”

Li Mingjiang, associate professor and coordinator of China Programme at RSIS, said there was even a chance that China and the US could find common ground on trade. He said Biden administration may not always suppress China as the Trump administration has done, including Trump’s tariffs on imports.[Biden] might lower or even cancel some tariffs, and cooperate with China in certain ways to stabilise the global financial market.
Read more in South China Morning Post “Under Joe Biden, US and China Could Work Together on COVID-19, Climate Change, Analysts Say”

Evan Resnick, assistant professor at RSIS, said that under Joe Biden, we are likely to see a more coherent and probably more confrontational policy on geopolitical issues, and that will probably make the Chinese quite nervous.
Read more in The Straits Times “Biden Win Heralds Sharper China Strategy by US”

Li Mingjiang, associate professor and coordinator of China Programme at RSIS, analysed that though the main trend of US-China competition will not change, he believes Biden will better balance the relations with China. Biden cannot avoid cooperating with China if he aims to recover US global influence. Biden is also not going to be as “pro-Taiwan” as Trump, so a safer and more stable Taiwan Strait could be fostered.
Read more in Lianhe Zaobao “Biden Likely to Reboot Cooperation with China”

James Dorsey, senior fellow at RSIS, said when Joe Biden takes office on January 20, he will take on vastly changed parameters from Israel to Iran. On Israel, he said it is unlikely to see a reversal of Jerusalem and see them move the embassy back to Tel Aviv.
Read more in Asia Times “Biden Inherits ‘Facts on the Ground’ in the Mideast”

Li Mingjiang, associate professor and coordinator of China Programme at RSIS, said the latest Chinese official statement (from Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Le Yucheng) shows that Beijing is paying great attention to the vote-counting process in the US election and sending signals on Sino-US relations and its policies to the US.
Read more in Lianhe Zaobao “Vice Foreign Minister Le Yucheng: China Hopes to Work with the New US President to Manage Differences”

Adrian Ang U-Jin, research fellow with the US Programme at RSIS, gave an interview on Astro Awani, where he spoke on the uncertainty surrounding the US Presidential Election.
Listen to the Radio Interview “US Elections (Part 1) – Messy Interregnum till Inauguration?”

Joseph Liow Chinyong, dean of the College of Humanities, Arts and Social Sciences, Tan Kah Kee Chair in Comparative and International Politics, and research adviser at RSIS, said if Biden is elected, one of his priorities will be to re-practise the multilateralism and regionalism that the US has abandoned under Trump’s leadership, and work hard to return the US to the free trade agenda.
Read more in Lianhe Zaobao “If Biden is Elected, the United States will Return to Traditional Foreign Policy”

Adrian Ang U-Jin, research fellow with the US Programme at RSIS, said the shift in population distribution has been the biggest factor in Arizona’s “red-to-blue” transition, with the majority of people moving in recent years with higher education and a more diverse demographic, changing the reality that most people in the state supported the Republican Party in the past
Read more in Lianhe Zaobao “Three Swing States Lead Increased Biden’s Odds of Winning”

Adrian Ang U-Jin, research fellow with the US Programme at RSIS, expressed his surprise that the US presidential election was still unable to come to a conclusion. He believes that Trump is able to maintain a strong combat effectiveness over the severe coronavirus, economic difficulties and social unrest and other unfavorable factors for two reasons. First, it benefits from the advantages that must have always had to fight for re-election; second, the voters are more concerned about economic issues.
Read more in Lianhe Zaobao “By Actively Campaigning to Reach Out to Minority Communities, Trump’s Strategy Worked to Flip the Polls”

Adrian Ang U-Jin, research fellow with the US Programme at RSIS, said the US Congress will continue to be stuck in a certain degree of impasse no matter who is elected president. Even if Biden is elected president and the Democrats win 50 seats in the Senate, it may not be enough to ensure that the party’s ambitious bills can be passed.
Read more in Lianhe Zaobao “The Structure of the US Congress is Expected to Maintain the Two Parties and One House Each. Democratic Party’s Advantage in the House of Representatives May be Reduced”

Adrian Ang U-Jin, research fellow with the US Programme at RSIS, said no matter who is elected president, the US Congress will continue to be stuck in a certain degree of impasse. Even if Biden is elected president and the Democrats wins 50 seats in the Senate, it may not be enough to ensure that the party’s ambitious bill will pass.
Read more in Lianhe Zaobao “Democrats is Expected to Retain the House of Representatives But it is Difficult to Get the Senate”

Adrian Ang U-Jin, research fellow with the US Programme at RSIS, gave an interview on BFM 89.9 business station, where he shared his insights on what we should be looking out for in this highly contested race.
Listen to the Radio Interview “The Night Before US Election 2020” (3:30 onwards)

Collin Koh, research fellow and coordinator US Programme at RSIS , said Taiwan was concerned that a Biden administration might lead to a cooling in ties, especially after the recent flurry of arms sales and high-level exchanges between the two sides.
Read more in South China Morning Post “US Presidential Election: Taiwan on Alert for Post-Poll Impact on Ties with Mainland China”

Joseph Chinyong Liow, dean of the College of Humanities, Arts and Social Sciences, Tan Kah Kee Chair in Comparative and International Politics, and research adviser at RSIS, noted that there are some who have misgivings about what China is doing, especially in regard to issues such as the South China Sea or along the border with India. But at the same time these states do not want to jeopardise relations with China because the economic relations they have are broader and deeper and they don’t want to compromise this relationship.
Read more in Al Jazeera “US-China Rivalry Set to Persist Whoever Wins the White House”

October 2020

Adam Garfinkle, distinguished visiting fellow at RSIS, discussed on the US Presidential Election 2020 during a video interview with Lianhe Zaobao online.
Watch the Video Interview “The Battle of White House 2020 – Trump and Biden’s Election in Swing States”

Adrian Ang U-Jin, research fellow with the US Programme at RSIS, noted that even though the impact of US Presidential Election might not be immediately apparent to Singaporeans, the election does have an impact on Singapore and the region of Southeast Asia.
Read more in Mothership “Does the US Election Matter to S’pore? Why should We Care?”

Adrian Ang U-Jin, research fellow with the US Programme at RSIS, is of the view that Biden will be the next American leader. He shared that while there are a good number of Democrats and pundits traumatised by the experience of 2016, there is good evidence to suggest that we will not see a repeat of 2016.
Read more in Mothership “S’porean Expert on US Politics Says Biden will Win Election”

Joseph Liow Chinyong, dean of the College of Humanities, Arts and Social Sciences, Tan Kah Kee Chair in Comparative and International Politics, and research adviser at RSIS, said the US general election is essentially a referendum on the current president. If Mr Trump wins, it will show that most voters support the policies he introduced. Tan See Seng, professor of International Relations at RSIS, said Mr Trump administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy will force ASEAN to choose between the US and China, and may further push Southeast Asian governments closer to China.
Read more in Lianhe Zaobao “Looking at the U.S. Elections from Southeast Asia”

Adrian Ang U-Jin, research fellow with the US Programme at RSIS, discussed on the US Presidential Election 2020 during a video interview with Lianhe Zaobao online.
Watch the Video Interview “The Battle of White House 2020 – Trump Lost to Coronavirus?” (16:35 to 23:41)

September 2020

Adrian Ang U-Jin, research fellow with the US Programme at RSIS, gave an interview on BFM 89.9 business station, where he discussed on the investigation into Trump’s tax payments and how it might affect his bid for a second term.
Listen to the Radio Interview “Will Trump’s Taxes Affect his Election Campaign?” (7:10 onwards)

August 2020

Joseph Chinyong Liow, dean of the College of Humanities, Arts and Social Sciences, Tan Kah Kee Chair in Comparative and International Politics, and research adviser at RSIS, noted that Trump is renowned for his unpredictability, his officials are a mix of ideologues and hardliners – that’s not particularly encouraging towards cooling tensions with China.
Read more in The Straits Times “How South-east Asia Regards Donald Trump and Joe Biden”

• CSIS-GRIPS-RSIS Panel Webinar on “The US Presidential Election and the Implication for the Situation in East Asia”, 3 December 2020
• RSIS Webinar by Dr Adam Garfinkle on “Does the US Need a New Security Framework/Architecture for Renewed Great Power Rivalry?”, 26 November 2020
• Dr Adrian Ang in “The Trend: 2020 US Presidential Election Edition” organised by Affin Hwang Capital Asset Management, 24 October 2020
• RSIS Webinar by Dr Adam Garfinkle on “The Evolving US-China Strategic Competition in Technology”, 23 October 2020
• RSIS Webinar by Dr Adam Garfinkle on “Nationalism, Ideology, and US-China Relations”, 24 September 2020

• Pre-Election Podcast by US Programme, RSIS, 27 October 2020