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    Dr Michael Raska

    Assistant Professor
    Education
    BA (Missouri Southern State College); MA (Yonsei University); PhD (LKYSPP, NUS)
    : [email protected]
    : +65 6592 3660
    : IDSS

    View the NTU Academic Profile here
    Will AI-Driven “Super-OODA Loops” Revolutionise Military Strategy and Operations?
    RSIS Commentary Series

    Dr Michael Raska

    Assistant Professor
    Education
    BA (Missouri Southern State College); MA (Yonsei University); PhD (LKYSPP, NUS)
    : [email protected]
    : +65 6592 3660
    : IDSS

    View the NTU Academic Profile here

    Following links control the content below

    • Biography
    • Areas of Expertise
    • Professional Activities
    • RSIS Publications
    • External Publications
    • Teaching Modules
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    Biography

    Michael Raska is Assistant Professor in the Military Transformations Programme at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University in Singapore. He is also a Non-Resident Senior Research Fellow at The Hague Center for Strategic Studies and a member of the Expert Advisory Group in the Global Commission on Responsible Artificial Intelligence in the Military Domain (GC REAIM).  His research and teaching focus on defence and military innovation, including the effects of emerging technologies such as AI on force planning and future warfighting concepts and next-generation hybrid conflicts and digital warfare.

    He is the author of Military Innovation and Small States: Creating Reverse Asymmetry (Routledge, 2016), co-editor of the AI Wave in Defence Innovation (Routledge, 2023), Defence Innovation and the 4th Industrial Revolution (Routledge, 2022), and Security, Strategy and Military Change in the 21st Century: Cross-Regional Perspectives (Routledge, 2015). He has published in journals such as the Journal of Strategic Studies, Strategic Studies Quarterly, Prism – Journal of Complex Operations, Georgetown Journal of Asian Affairs, Air Force Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs, Korea Journal of Defence Analysis, Pointer-Journal of Singapore Armed Forces, and Sirius – Journal of Strategic Analyses.

    His contributions also include chapters in edited volumes, policy reports, and commentaries, including collaborative projects with the Center for New American Security, Defence AI Observatory at the Helmut Schmidt University of the Bundeswehr, EU Institute for Security Studies, Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, Institute for Security Policy at Kiel University, International Institute for Strategic Studies, National Institute for Defence Studies Japan, Norwegian Institute of Defence Studies, Strategic Studies Institute at the US Army War College, Swedish Defence University, and UC Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation.

    His commentaries and op-eds have been published by the ASPI Strategist, Asia Times, Defense News, Diplomat, East Asia Forum, Lowy Interpreter, National Interest, RSIS Commentaries, RUSI Newsbrief, and newspapers including the Straits Times, Korea Herald, Jakarta Post, and others. His media interviews and news appearances include the AFP, BBC World News, Bloomberg, Channel News Asia, CNBC, CNN, Die Welt, The Economist, The Guardian, Financial Times, Reuters, South China Morning Post, Straits Times, Time, and other news channels.

    Dr Raska has previously taught courses, lectures, and seminars at the SAF Goh Keng Swee Command and Staff College and the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy. His recent teaching experiences include visiting fellowships at the Australian War College, and select professional military education institutions and defence colleges in Europe, Asia, and the U.S. In Singapore, he has contributed research and teaching for the Ministry of Defence, Defence Science and Technology Agency, and all branches of the Singapore Armed Forces, including the Special Operations Task Force, Republic of Singapore Air Force, Republic of Singapore Navy, and Digital and Intelligence Service.

    He is an alumni of the Columbia University Summer Workshop on Analysis of Military Operations and Strategy (SWAMOS 2012), Philip Merrill Center for Strategic Studies Workshop at Basin Harbor (2013), Hertog Summer Study Program (2014), and the Young Strategists Forum (2017). He holds a Ph.D. from the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore, where he was a recipient of the President’s Graduate Fellowship.

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    Areas of Expertise

    • Defence and Military Innovation – Theory and Concepts
      Comparative analysis and net assessments of defence innovation strategies, technologies, and capabilities.
    • AI Revolution in Military Affairs – Strategies and Capabilities
      Projecting the impact of AI and emerging technologies on international security and future conflicts; addressing responsible AI policy imperatives, challenges, and trajectories.
    • Cyber Conflicts and Digital Warfare
      Mapping security challenges posed by the cyber revolution, ranging from military cyber operations to hostile information campaigns and digital warfare.

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    Professional Activities

    • Senior Research Fellow (Non-Resident), The Hague Center for Strategic Studies, The Netherlands (2025)
    • Member, Academic Review Committee, NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence, Tallinn, Estonia (2025)
    • Visiting Lecturer, Australian War College, Canberra, Australia  (2023, 2024)
    • Selected as a member of the Expert Advisory Group for the Global Commission on Responsible Artificial Intelligence in the Military Domain (GC-REAIM), 2024.
    • Selected to provide expert testimony at the public hearing before the Select Committee on Deliberate Online Falsehoods, Singapore Parliament, 2018.
    • Selected as a participant in the Young Strategists Forum (YSF) by the German Marshall Fund of the United States, Tokyo, Japan, 2017.
    • Selected as a participant in the Opinion Leaders Program by the Japan Ministry of Defense, Tokyo, Japan, 2015.
    • Selected as a participant in the Hertog Summer Study Program by the Philip Merrill Center for Strategic Studies, San Diego, CA, USA, 2014.
    • Selected as a participant in the Summer Workshop on the Relationship between National Security and Technology in China by the Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, University of California, San Diego, CA, USA, 2013.
    • Selected as a participant in the Philip Merrill Center for Strategic Studies Basin Harbor Teaching Seminar, The Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), The Johns Hopkins University, 2013.
    • Selected as a participant in the Summer Workshop on Military Operations and Strategy (SWAMOS), Columbia / Cornell University, 2012.
    • Samsung Economic Research Institute, Center for Global Cooperation, Research Analyst, 2005-2006.
    • Fellow, Rothberg International School, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, 2004
    • Pacific Forum CSIS, Young Leaders Program, 2003.
    • Fellow, Air Power Program, GSIS Yonsei University, 2003.
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    RSIS Publications

      IDSS Papers

      • IP23007 | The Russia-Ukraine War: Lessons for Northeast Asia

        12 January, 2023

      • IP22010 | The Contours of Emerging Technologies and Future Warfare

        22 February, 2022

      Policy Reports

      • Countering the U.S. Third Offset Strategy: Russian Perspectives, Responses and Challenges

        24 January, 2017

      • Confronting Cybersecurity Challenges: Israel's Evolving Cyber Defence Strategy

        08 January, 2015

      • The AirSea Battle Debate and the Future of Conflict in East Asia

        01 February, 2013

      RSIS Commentary Series

      • Will AI-Driven “Super-OODA Loops” Revolutionise Military Strategy and Operations?

        20 January, 2025

      • Israeli Forces Display Power of AI, but it is a Double-edged Sword

        23 April, 2024

      • The Myth of a Technology Shield: Israel's Strategic Surprise and Lessons for Singapore

        11 October, 2023

      • Mapping North Korean Cyber Strategies

        30 December, 2022

      • The Future of Digital Warfare

        13 December, 2022

      • Is the Innovation Winter Coming?

        26 June, 2019

      • The SAF After Next Incarnation

        08 March, 2019

      • CO18105 | Singapore’s Next Frontier: In Search of Defence Innovation

        25 June, 2018

      • CO18071 | Cross-Domain Coercion: Contours of East Asia’s Future Conflicts

        24 April, 2018

      • CO17205 | North Korea Threat and Asian Markets: A Paradox?

        01 November, 2017

      • CO17165 | Strategic Contours of China’s Arms Exports

        11 September, 2017

      • CO17102 | 4G SAF: Creating New Advantages

        24 May, 2017

      • CO16223 | China's Quantum Satellite Experiments: Strategic and Military Implications

        05 September, 2016

      • CO16156 | Cyber Conflicts and Singapore’s ‘Total Defence’ Strategy

        23 June, 2016

      • CO16093 | Tailored Deterrence: Influencing North Korean Decision-Making

        22 April, 2016

      • CO16032 | The Real Star Wars: Improving Satellite Defences

        11 February, 2016

      • CO15262 | Hybrid Warfare with Chinese Characteristics

        02 December, 2015

      • C015172 | Cyber-Enabled Hybrid Conflicts in East Asia

        17 August, 2015

      • CO15091 | Russia’s Concept of Hybrid Wars: Implications for Small States

        14 April, 2015

      • CO15045 | Decoding China’s Cyber Warfare Strategies

        04 March, 2015

      • CO14229 | Back to the Future: China’s Defence Industry Innovation Paths

        19 November, 2014

      • CO14192 | Building a Cyber Iron Dome: Israel’s Cyber Defensive Envelope

        02 October, 2014

      • CO14130 | Toward Stealth and Sea Denial: Submarine Modernization in East Asia

        07 July, 2014

      • CO14030 | SINGAPORE AIRSHOW: China’s Aviation Industry on the Horizon?

        13 February, 2014

      • CO14026 | SINGAPORE AIRSHOW: East Asia’s Changing Security Dynamics: The Role of Airpower

        11 February, 2014

      • CO14008 | Rethinking Asia-Europe Security Cooperation

        15 January, 2014

      • CO13163 | China's [Secret] Civil-Military Megaprojects

        02 September, 2013

      • CO13119 | Information Warfare 3.0: Weapons of Mass Effectiveness

        28 June, 2013

      • CO13101 | Australia's Evolving 'Smart Power' Strategy

        28 May, 2013

      • CO13052 | South Korea's Security Predicaments: Preparing for 'Hybrid Conflict'

        02 April, 2013

      • CO13013 | Submarine Trends in Asia Pacific: Air-Independent Propulsion A Game Changer?

        24 January, 2013

      • CO12219 | Creating Reverse Asymmetry: Patterns of IDF's Military Innovation

        05 December, 2012

      • CO12194 | China's Defence Aviation Industry: Searching for Innovation

        17 October, 2012

      • CO12158 | Decoding the Air-Sea Battle Concept: Operational Consequences and Allied Concerns

        23 August, 2012

      • CO12105 | Ascertaining China’s Strategy for the Korean Peninsula: Implications for the U.S.-ROK Alliance

        20 June, 2012

      • CO12039 | Iran’s Nuclear Conundrum: Israel’s Strategic Options

        12 March, 2012

      • CO12031 | From Copier to Innovator? China’s Ballistic Missile Modernisation

        21 February, 2012

      Commemorative / Event Reports

      • Future Conflicts - Lessons Learned from Ukraine

        25 January, 2023

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    External Publications

    Authored Books

    • Military Innovation in Small States: Creating a Reverse Asymmetry. : Routledge, 2015
    • Creating Reverse Asymmetry: Military Innovation in Small States (London: Routledge, 2015 Forthcoming).

    Journal Articles

    • “Emerging Technologies, Defence Innovation & Military Change: How will the AI Wave Change Warfare in East Asia?” in Georgetown Journal of Asian Affairs, 10, 2024, p50-59
    • “Chinese and Russian Military Modernization and the Fourth Industrial Revolution” (with Richard A. Bitzinger) in SIRIUS - Journal of Strategic Analysis, 2022. p.303-317
    • “The Sixth RMA Wave: Disruption in Military Affairs?” in Journal of Strategic Studies, 2020
    • “North Korea’s Evolving Cyber Strategies: Continuity and Change” in SIRIUS – Zeitschrift für Strategische Analysen, Vol. 4, No. 2, 2020, pp. 144-158
    • “Strategic Contours of China’s Arms Transfers” (with Richard Bitzinger) in Strategic Studies Quarterly, 14, 1, 2020. pp. 91-116
    • “Strategic Competition for Emerging Military Technologies: Comparative Paths and Patterns” in PRISM, 8, 3, 2020, 64-81
    • “Strategic Competition and Future Conflicts in the Indo-Pacific Region” in The Air Force Journal of Indo–Pacific Affairs , Vol. 2, No. 2, 2019, pp. 83-97
    • “Cybersecurity in Southeast Asia” (with Benjamin Ang) in Asia Centre, 2018. 1-9
    • “Locating China’s Place in the Global Defense Economy” (with Michael Raska, et.al.), in Forging China’s Military Might: A New Framework for Assessing Innovation (Tai Ming Cheung, ed.), Johns Hopkins University Press, 2014
    • “RMA Diffusion Paths and Patterns in South Korea’s Military Modernization,” Korean Journal of Defense Analysis 23, no. 3 (2011): 369-385.
    • “Five Waves of RMA Theory,” Pointer - Journal of Singapore Armed Forces 36, no.3 (2011): 1-12
    • “Beyond the Bomb in the Basement: Israel’s Nuclear Predicament & Policy Options,” The Asian Journal of Public Affairs 1, no.2 (2011):22-33.
    • “The Concept of Reverse Asymmetry: Israel’s Military Innovation,” RUSI Newsbrief 33, no.1 (2013).
    • “The Air-Sea Battle Debate and the Future of Conflict in East Asia,” RUSI Newsbrief 32, no.6 (2012).

    Edited Books / Special Issues

    • The AI Wave in Defence Innovation Assessing Military Artificial Intelligence Strategies, Capabilities, and Trajectories (with Richard Bitzinger), Eds. Singapore: Routledge, 2023
    • Defence Innovation and the 4th Industrial Revolution: Security Challenges, Emerging Technologies, and Military Implications (with Katarzyna Zysk, and Ian Bowers), Eds. Singapore: Routledge, 2022
    • Security, Strategy and Military Change in the 21st Century: Cross-Regional Perspectives (with Jo Inge Bekkevold, and Ian Bowers), Eds. : Routledge, 2015

    Chapters in Edited Books

    • “Defence Planning for Small and Middle Powers Rethinking Force Development in an Age of Disruption” in T. Sweijs, S. Genugten, F. Osinga, Defence Planning for Small and Middle Powers: Rethinking Force Development in an Age of Disruption. New York: Routledge, 2024, To be updated
    • “Reimagining Defense Innovation: Defense AI in Singapore” in H. Borchert, T. Schutz, and J. Verbovzsky, The Very Long Game: 25 Case Studies on the Global State of Defence AI. Berlin: Springer Nature, 2024, To be updated
    • “The ‘AI Wave’ in Space Operations: Implications for Future Warfare” (with Malcolm Davis) in S. Pekkanen, P.J. Blount, The Oxford Handbook of Space Security. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2024, To be updated
    • “The ‘AI Wave’ in Space Operations: Implications for Future Warfare” (with Malcolm Davis) in Saadia M. Pekkanen and P.J. Blount, The Oxford Handbook of Space Security. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2024, Page to be updated
    • “North Korea’s Evolving Cyber Strategies: Continuity and Change” in Michael Raska, North Korea’s Evolving Cyber Strategies: Continuity and Change. United States: Rowman and Littlefield, 2023, p173-200.
    • “North Korea’s Evolving Cyber Strategies and Operations: Toward Weapons of Mass Effectiveness” in Scott A. Snyder, Kyung-Ae Park, North Korea’s Foreign Policy: The Kim Jong-un Regime in a Hostile World. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2022, p.173-200
    • “Chinese and Russian Military Modernization and the 4IR” (with Richard A. Bitzinger) in Sarah Kirchberger, Svenja Sinjen, and Nils Wörmer, Russia-China Relations: Emerging Alliance or Eternal Rivals?. Switzerland: Springer Cham, 2022, p.121-140
    • “The AI Wave in Military Affairs: Enablers and Constraints” in The National Institute for Defense Studies (No specific individual(s) identified), Technological Innovation and Security: The Impact on the Strategic Environment in East Asia. Tokyo: The National Institute for Defense Studies, 2022, p.89-101
    • “Defence Innovation and the 4th Industrial Revolution” in Michael Raska, Katarzyna Zysk, Ian Bowers, Defence Innovation and the 4th Industrial Revolution. New York: Routledge, 2022, p1-202
    • “China’s Political Warfare in Taiwan: Strategies, Methods, and Global Implication” (with Gulizar Haciyakupoglu) in M. Weissmann, N. Nilsson, P. Thunholm and B. Palmertz (eds.) , Hybrid Warfare: Security and Asymmetric Conflict in International Relations. London, United Kingdom: I.B. Tauris, 2021, Chp 12
    • “China as an Arms Exporter: The Strategic Contours of China’s Arms Transfers” (with Richard Bitzinger) in Laurence Lustgarten (Ed.), Law and the Arms Trade Weapons, Blood and Rules. Oxford, United Kingdom: Hart Publishing, 2020, pp. 323-342
    • Michael Raska, "South Korea's Military-Innovation Trajectories," In: Cronin, Patrick (ed.), Breakthrough on the Peninsula: Third Offset Strategies and the Future Defense of Korea (Washington D.C.: Center for New American Security, 2016), 23-39.
    • Koh, Swee Lean, Collin; Richard A. Bitzinger; Michael Raska; Kelvin Wong Ka Weng. “Locating China’s Place in the Global Defense Economy” in Tai Ming Cheung (ed.), Forging China’s Military Might: A New Framework for Assessing Innovation, pp. 169-212. Baltimore, Maryland: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2014.
    • “Locating China’s Place in Global Defense Economy,” with Richard Bitzinger et. al., in Forging China’s Military Might: A New Framework for Assessing Innovation, ed. Tai Ming Cheung (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2013).
    • “China’s Strategic Imprint on the Korean Peninsula: Crisis Scenarios and Implications for the US-ROK Alliance,” in Contending for the Asia-Pacific: New Dynamics in US-China Relations, eds. Mingjiang Li and Kalyan Kemburi (London: Routledge, 2014).
    • “Capacity for Innovation: Technological Drivers of China’s Future Military Modernization,” with Richard Bitzinger, in The PLA in the 2025, eds. Roy Kamphausen and David Lai (Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, 2014 Forthcoming).
    • “Debating Military Innovation: Conceptual Approaches,” in Managing Military Change: Strategic Thinking, Reforms and Adaptation in a Changing Security Environment, eds. Jo Inge Bekkevold and Dahiya Rumel (Oslo: Norwegian Institute for Defense Studies, 2014 Forthcoming).
    • “SSK Submarine Modernization in East Asia: The Role of Air Independent Propulsion Systems,” in Emerging Critical Technologies and their Impact on Asia-Pacific Security, ed. Richard Bitzinger (London: Palgrave, 2014 Forthcoming).
    • “China’s Military Aviation Industry: In Search of Innovation,” in The Chinese Defense Economy Policy Briefs: Sector-by-Sector Assessments and the Role of Military End Users, ed. Tai Ming Cheung (San Diego: Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, 2013)

    Op-Eds

    • “Israeli Forces Display the Power of AI, but it is a Double-edged Sword”, The Straits Times, 17 April 2024
    • “Israel-Hamas Conflict Risks Getting Lost in the Digital Fog of War”, The Straits Times, 2 November 2023
    • “Why Hamas’ Deadly Surprise Attack on Israel Matters to Singapore”, Channel News Asia, 11 October 2023
    • “Everything Everywhere All at Once: The Challenge of Defence Supply Chains”, The Straits Times, 21 March 2023
    • “Rethinking the AI wave in digital warfare”, East Asia Forum, 7 February 2023
    • “The Seoul Drone Scare’s Message for Asia’s Military Planners”, The Straits Times, 16 January 2023
    • “Rethinking Defence Planning In An Age Of Disruption”, The Straits Times, 11 October 2021
    • “Could North Korea Hack Into US Elections?”, The Korea Herald, 25 September 2020
    • “North Korea’s Evolving Cyber Warfare Strategy”, East Asia Forum, 24 September 2020
    • “AI’s Impact on Military Power” (with Richard Bitzinger), The Straits Times, 25 June 2019
    • “How will SAF Look Like after its Next Incarnation?”, Today Online, 19 March 2019
    • “Singapore’s Next-Frontier Defence Innovations”, The Straits Times, 27 June 2018
    • “Cybersecurity in Southeast Asia” (with Benjamin Ang), Observatoire Asie du Sud-Est , 22 May 2018
    • “A Nimble 4G SAF Needs Space for Mavericks”, The Straits Times, 13 May 2017
    • “How China Plans to Win the Next Great Big War In Asia”, The National Interest, 9 March 2017
    • “China’s Evolving Cyber Warfare Strategies”, Asia Times, 8 March 2017
    • “Strategy for Handling North Korea Nukes: Tailored Deterrence”, Asia Times, 13 January 2017
    • “Challenges Ahead in Xi’s Bid to Reform China’s Military”, Asia Times, 11 January 2017
    • “Rethinking Trump’s Policy Options for North Korea” (with Jana Hajzlerova), Asia Times, 21 December 2016
    • “Where Quantum Satellites Fit in PLA Strategy”, The Lowy Interpreter, 8 September 2016
    • “PLA Reforms: Toward Winning ‘Informationised Local Wars’”, The Lowy Interpreter, 3 February 2016
    • “China and the ‘Three Warfares’”, The Diplomat, 18 December 2015
    • “Revealed: The New Battleground in China’s Future Wars”, The National Interest, 10 March 2015
    • “Submarine Modernization in East Asia”, The Diplomat, 14 July 2014
    • “Strategic Rivalries Escalate in East Asia”, The Korea Herald, 28 April 2014
    • “The Ambiguous “China Threat””, Project Syndicate, 24 November 2012
    • “China on the Launch Pad”, Project Syndicate, 6 June 2012
    • “Transforming South Korea’s Defence Capabilities”, East Asia Forum, 28 May 2012
    • “What is China’s Strategy for North Korea?” Aljazeera, May 15, 2014.
    • “Singapore’s Smart Army,” East Asia Forum, March 1, 2014.
    • “East Asia’s Changing Security Dynamics and the Role of Airpower,” Defense News, February 3, 2014.
    • “Time to Rethink Asia-Europe Security Cooperation?” The Korea Herald, January 19, 2014.
    • “Scientific Innovation and Chinese Military Modernization,” The Diplomat, September 3, 2013.
    • “Australia's Evolving 'Smart Power' Strategy,” The Jakarta Post, June 7, 2013.
    • “Information Warfare on the Korean Peninsula,” ASPI Strategist, March 13, 2013.
    • “Integrating Information Warfare into U.S.-ROK Defense Strategy,” The Korea Herald, March 4, 2013.
    • “China’s Defense Aviation Industry: Toward Stealth Innovation?” with Alanna Krolikowski, East Asia Forum, March 11, 2013.
    • “South Korea’s Changing Security Paradigm,” Project Syndicate, February 10, 2013.
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    Teaching Modules

    • S6038: Conflicts in the Digital Age: Information and Cyberwarfare
    • IR6036: International Relations of Korea: Searching For Security, Autonomy, and Independence
    • S6010: The Revolution in Military Affairs and Force Transformation in the 21st Century

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