Military Transformations Programme
The Military Transformations Programme (MTP) was established in 2003. It aims to develop policy-relevant and scholarly expertise on issues arising from the development, adoption, and use of disruptive technologies by militaries.
Priority areas for MTP’s research include:
- Military innovation – understanding the impact of disruptive technologies on the development of new types of armaments and other military equipment that may lead to novel capabilities and advantages for militaries in the long term (i.e., out to 2040). These include advances in AI, autonomous systems and quantum technologies, among others, as well as their strategic and operational interactions.
- Military-strategic competition – assessing the relative strengths and weaknesses of militaries and their sources of competitive advantage derived from disruptive technologies, and the implications of this for regional strategic stability.
- Governance and norms – monitoring militaries’ approaches to governance of disruptive technologies across different domains, e.g., in cyberspace and outer space. This includes the emergence of non-binding norms, arms control measures, multilateral dialogue, and application of international law.
MTP Select Publications
Book Chapters
- Michael Raska, “The Contours of Singapore’s Defence Planning: Rethinking Deterrence, Defence Diplomacy, and Resilience” in Sweijs, T., Genugten S., and Osinga F., Defence Planning for Small and Middle Powers: Rethinking Force Development in an Age of Disruption (New York: Routledge, 2024).
- Michael Raska, “Reimagining Defense Innovation: Defense AI in Singapore” in Borchert, H., Schutz, T., and Verbovszky, J. The Very Long Game: 25 Case Studies on the Global State of Defense AI (Cham: Springer, 2024).
- Michael Raska and Malcolm Davis, “The ‘AI Wave’ in Space Operations: Implications for Future Warfare”, in Pekkanen S. and Blount PJ., The Oxford Handbook of Space Security (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2024).
Journal Articles
- Michael Raska, “Emerging Technologies, Defence Innovation, and Military Change: How will the AI Wave Change Warfare in East Asia?”, Georgetown Journal of Asian Affairs 10, pp. 50-60.
- Michael Raska, “Reshaping Air Power Doctrines: Creating AI-Enabled Super-OODA Loops”, Air Power Journal 3(2), pp.15-26.
Policy Reports
- Wichuta Teeratanabodee, “Public-Private Partnerships in Outer Space: Implications for the Defence and Security Sector”, RSIS Working Paper, March 2025.
Commentaries and Op-eds
- Michael Raska, “Israeli Forces Display the Power of AI, but it’s a Double-Edged Sword”, The Straits Times, 18 April 2024.
- Manoj Harjani, “Parsing the Inaugural China-US AI Talks”, IDSS Paper, 21 May 2024.
- Mei Ching Liu, “Military AI Governance: Moving Beyond Autonomous Weapon Systems”, IDSS Paper, 24 June 2024.
- Manoj Harjani, “Lavender’s impact: Time for an arms control agreement for AI?” PacNet, 13 June 2024.
- Michael Raska, “AI in Defence and Military Innovation: Advances and Challenges”, Focus, August 2024.
- Manoj Harjani, “AUKUS Pillar II: Shaping Regional Strategic Stability”, IDSS Paper, 31 July 2024.
- Manoj Harjani, “Envisioning a ‘Quad Plus’ in Southeast Asia”, Asia Dispatches, 20 August 2024.
- Mei Ching Liu, “The Unresolved Legal Status of Maritime Drones: (War)ships or Weapons?”, IDSS Paper, 15 November 2024.
- Michael Raska, “‘Double-Edged Sword’ Risk in AI Military Warfare,” Kyodo News, 17 November 2024.
- Manoj Harjani, “Military AI Governance in 2024: One Step Forward, Two Steps Back”, IDSS Paper, 10 January 2025.
- Manoj Harjani, “The REAIM “Blueprint for Action” Needs Skin in the Game”, IDSS Paper, 16 January 2025.
- Michael Raska, “Will AI-Driven Super-OODA Loops Revolutionise Military Strategy and Operations?”, RSIS Commentary, 20 January 2025.
Events
- Responsible AI in the Military Domain (REAIM) Regional Consultations Asia, 26-27 February 2024.
- MTP Webinar Series on “Emerging Issues in Military AI”, October 2024.
- MTP Conference on “Navigating Uncertainty: Arms Control in an Age of Disruptive Technologies”, 7-8 November 2024.
- MTP Webinar on “The Space-Cyber Nexus”, 4 February 2025.
- Asia-Pacific Consultation on the Application of International Humanitarian Law to Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems, 11-13 February 2025.
Invited Presentations
- Michael Raska, Lecturer, “Changing Technology and Future Warfare”, Lecture at 22 CSC Strategic Studies Module, SAFTI, Singapore, 21 February 2024.
- Michael Raska, Lecturer, “Changing Domains: The Cyber/Info Realms”, Lecture at 22 CSC Strategic Studies Module, SAFTI, Singapore, 22 February 2024.
- Michael Raska, Speaker, Session 1: AI Fundamentals and Key Policy Issues, Risks, and Opportunities in the Military Domain, Responsible AI in the Military Domain (REAIM) Regional Consultations Asia, Singapore, 26 February 2024.
- Manoj Harjani, Speaker, “AI Governance and ASEAN”, Roundtable Discussion on AI Policy in Asia, Konrad Adenauer Stiftung – Regional Programme Political Dialogue Asia, Singapore, 4 March 2024.
- Manoj Harjani, Organiser and Moderator, RSIS Roundtable on “Quantum Sensing and Future Warfare”, online, 6 March 2024.
- Manoj Harjani, Organiser and Speaker, RSIS Workshop on “Responsible AI Efforts Among Asian Militaries”, online, 7 March 2024.
- Manoj Harjani, Organiser and Speaker, RSIS Virtual Workshop on “Implementing Post-Quantum Cryptography: Challenges and Security Implications”, online, 14 March 2024.
- Michael Raska, Global Commission on Responsible AI in Military Domain (GC REAIM) – Inaugural Plenary Meetings, Online, 21 April and 20 May 2024.
- Michael Raska, Speaker, “The AI Wave in the PLA: Enablers and Constraints,” Sinopsis Prague Workshop, “Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific in the Changing World,” Prague, Czech Republic, April 25-26, 2024.
- Michael Raska, Lecturer, “Defence Innovation, Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Conflicts in East Asia,” Command and Staff College, Defence Academy, Royal Brunei Armed Forces, 20 May 2024.
- Michael Raska, Speaker, “Aiming for Errors: Future Battlefields and the Challenge of AI”, 37th Asia-Pacific Roundtable, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, 5 June 2024.
- Michael Raska, Speaker, “Harnessing AI for Defence: Strategies for Developing Countries”, Philippine Air Force Symposium 2024, Manila, Philippines, 14 June 2024.
- Manoj Harjani, Speaker, “Quad Plus and Southeast Asia”, Strengthening Indo-Pacific Collaboration for Development, World Learning and DCN Global, 8 June 2024.
- Michael Raska, Visiting Fellow and Lecturer, “Future War Unit (AWC 754), 2024 Defence and Strategic Studies Course,” Australian War College, Canberra, Australia, 19-23 August 2024.
- Michael Raska, Panel Speaker, “Towards Action on Military AI Risks in the Cyber Domain”, RAND Europe and NATO CCDCOE Breakout Session, Responsible AI in Military Domain (REAIM Summit), Seoul, Korea, 9-10 September 2024.
- Michael Raska, Panel Speaker, “Mirror, Mirror on the Wall…Multinational Perspectives on Developing and Adopting Responsible Defense AI”, RAND Europe and NATO CCDCOE Breakout Session, Responsible AI in Military Domain (REAIM Summit), Seoul, Korea, 9-10 September 2024.
- Michael Raska, Panel Speaker, “The Future of Cutting-Edge Military Technology and Defence Industry,” Seoul Defence Dialogue 2024, Seoul, Korea, 11-12 September 2024.
- Michael Raska, Speaker and Panel Organiser, “The Very Long Game Global State of Defence AI,” The Annual Baltic Conference on Defence (ABCD Conference), Tallinn, Estonia, 24 September.
- Michael Raska, Panel Speaker, “World in Turmoil: Global Security Flashpoints and Influence on Europe”, The Annual Baltic Conference on Defence (ABCD Conference), Tallinn, Estonia, 25 September.
- Manoj Harjani, Speaker, “AI and the Futures of Warfare”, Expert Insight Series, Takshashila Institution, virtual, 18 July 2024.
- Manoj Harjani, Speaker, “Human-Centred Test and Evaluation of Military AI”, Responsible AI in the Military Domain (REAIM) Summit, Seoul, Korea, 9 September 2024.
- Manoj Harjani, Co-Organiser, “Exploring Alternative Futures of Military AI Governance”, Responsible AI in the Military Domain (REAIM) Summit, Seoul, Korea, 10 September 2024.
- Manoj Harjani, Speaker, “AI and the Futures of Warfare”, 12th RINSA Seminar, Research Institute for National Security Affairs, Seoul, Korea, 12 September 2024.
- Manoj Harjani, Speaker, “The Geopolitical and Research Implications of AI in Warfare”, Sustainable Security in 2024 and Beyond – The Role of AI, TRENDS Research and Advisory and University of Tokyo, virtual, 19 September 2024.
- Mei Ching Liu, Panel Speaker, “The Evolution of Warfare and International Humanitarian Law: Looking Back, Looking Forward”, 75th Anniversary of the Geneva Conventions, Embassy of Switzerland in Singapore and the International Committee of the Red Cross, Singapore, 21 October 2024.
- Michael Raska, Panel Speaker, “Armaments Diplomacy: Strategies for Small and Medium Powers”, CSS/ETH Zurich Workshop, Zurich, Switzerland, 11 November 2024.
- Michael Raska, Panel Speaker, “The AI Wave in Defence Innovation – Impact on Modern Naval Forces”, Saudi International Maritime Security Forum, Dammam, Saudi Arabia, 19-21 November 2024.
- Manoj Harjani, Speaker, “Session 4: Cybersecurity and Risk Management”, Converge: The Indo-Pacific Critical Technologies Forum 2024, Pacific Forum, Tokyo, 10 October 2024.
- Manoj Harjani, Speaker, “Techno-Nationalism: A Passing Trend or the New Reality”, Responsible Quantum Technologies: Impact of Geopolitics in the Indo-Pacific Region, RSIS, Singapore, 16 October 2024.
Programme Staff
Mr Manoj Harjani
Research Fellow
Coordinator, Military Transformations Programme, IDSS
DID: 6513 8299
Email: [email protected]
Dr Michael Raska
Assistant Professor
Military Transformations Programme, IDSS
DID: 6592 3660
Email: [email protected]
Ms Mei Ching Liu
Associate Research Fellow
Military Transformations Programme, IDSS
DID: 6904 1338
Email: [email protected]
MTP Select Publications (2020-2023)
Books
- Michael Raska and Richard A. Bitzinger (eds), The AI Wave in Defence Innovation: Assessing Military Artificial Intelligence Strategies, Capabilities, and Trajectories (New York: Routledge 2023).
- Richard A. Bitzinger (co-editor), Defence Industries in the 21st Century: A Comparative Analysis (London: Routledge 2020).
Book Chapters
- Richard A. Bitzinger and Michael Raska, “Chinese and Russian Military Modernization and the 4IR”, in Kirchberger, S., Sinjen, S., and Wörmer, N. (eds.) Russia-China Relations: Emerging Alliance or Eternal Rivals? (Switzerland: Springer Nature, 2022).
- Michael Raska, “North Korea’s Evolving Cyber Strategies and Operations: Toward Weapons of Mass Effectiveness”, in Snyder, S. and Park K. (eds.) North Korea’s Foreign Policy: The Kim Jong-un Regime in a Hostile World. (Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2022), 173-200.
- Michael Raska, “The AI Wave in Military Affairs: Enablers and Constraints”, in The National Institute for Defense Studies, Technological Innovation and Security: The Impact on the Strategic Environment in East Asia, (Tokyo: NIDS The National Institute for Defense Studies, 2022), 89-101.
- George Christou and Michael Raska, “EU-Asia Cybersecurity”, in Thomas Christiansen, Emil Kirchner, and See Seng Tan (eds.) The European Union’s Security Relations with Asian Partners (London: Palgrave Macmillan 2021), 209-230.
- Gulizar Haciyakupoglu and Michael Raska, “China’s Political Warfare in Taiwan: Strategies, Methods, and Global Implications”, in Mikael Weissmann et. al. (eds.), Hybrid Warfare: Security and Asymmetric Conflict in International Relations (London: I.B. Tauris, 2021), 173-194.
Journal Articles
- Richard A. Bitzinger and Michael Raska, “Chinese and Russian Military Modernisation and the 4IR”, SIRIUS – Journal of Strategic Analyses (German), 6(3), 303-317.
- Michael Raska, Katarzyna Zysk, and Ian Bowers (eds.), “Defence Innovation and the 4th Industrial Revolution: Security Challenges, Technologies, and National Responses”, Journal of Strategic Studies, 44/4 (2021).
- Michael Raska, “The sixth RMA wave: Disruption in Military Affairs?”, Journal of Strategic Studies, Journal of Strategic Studies, 44/4 (2021): 456-479.
- Zoe Stanley-Lockman, “From Closed to Open Systems: How the US Military Services Pursue Innovation”, Journal of Strategic Studies, Journal of Strategic Studies, 44/4 (2021): 480-514.
- Richard Bitzinger, “China’s Military-Civil Fusion Strategy: Development, Procurement, and Secrecy”, Asia Policy, 16/1 (2021): 1-64.
- Michael Raska, “North Korea’s Evolving Cyber Strategies: Continuity and Change”, SIRIUS – Journal of Strategic Analyses, 4/2 (2020): 144-158.
- Michael Raska, “Strategic Competition for Emerging Military Technologies: Comparative Paths and Patterns”, PRISM – Journal of Complex Operations, 8/3 (2020): 65-81.
Policy Reports
- Richard A. Bitzinger, Wichuta Teeratanabodee, and Michael Raska, “Future Conflicts – Lessons Learned from Ukraine”, RSIS/MTP Workshop Report, 23 January 2023.
- Zoe Stanley-Lockman and Andrea Gilli, “Ethical Purpose: Ethics and Values” and “Technological Superiority” in Andrea Gilli (ed.) NATO-Mation”: Strategies for Leading in the Age of Artificial Intelligence, NATO Defence College, December 2020.
- Zoe Stanley-Lockman, “Hunt for the Unmanned Red October: The Rise of Underwater Drones” in Florence Gaub (ed.) Conflicts to Come: 15 scenarios for 2030, European Union Institute for Security Studies 2020.
- Zoe Stanley-Lockman, “Futureproofing Transatlantic Relations: The Case for Stronger Technology Cooperation,” in Simona Soare (ed.) Turning the Tide: How to Rescue Transatlantic Relations, European Union Institute for Security Studies,
- Malcolm Davis, “Australia as a Rising Middle Power”, RSIS Working Papers, 23 April 2020.
Commentaries and Op-eds
- Wichuta Teeratanabodee, “How Japan can edge out China to become a world leader in cleaning up space junk”, South China Morning Post, 9 July 2023.
- Manoj Harjani, “Is an AUKUS Expansion on the Cards?”, IDSS Paper, 24 May 2023.
- Wichuta Teeratanabodee, “Inaugural Summit on Responsible AI in the Military Domain: Limitations and Proposed Pathways”, IDSS Paper, 23 March 2023.
- Michael Raska, “Everything Everywhere All at Once: The Challenge of Defence Supply Chains”, The Straits Times, 21 March 2023.
- Michael Raska, “Rethinking the AI wave in digital warfare”, East Asia Forum, 7 February 2023.
- Michael Raska, “The Seoul Drone Scare’s Message for Asia’s Military Planners”, The Straits Times, 16 January 2023.
- Michael Raska, “The Russia-Ukraine War: Lessons for Northeast Asia”, IDSS Paper, 12 January 2023.
- Michael Raska, “Mapping North Korean Cyber Strategies”, RSIS Commentary, 30 December 2022.
- Michael Raska, “The Future of Digital Warfare”, RSIS Commentary, 13 December 2022.
- Wichuta Teeratanabodee, “Mitigating Risks to Space Sustainability”, IDSS Paper, 9 December 2022.
- Wichuta Teeratanabodee, “The Environmental Impact of Military AI”, IDSS Paper, 15 July 2022.
- Wichuta Teeratanabodee, “Military AI Governance in East Asia: Advances and Challenges”, IDSS Paper, 23 June 2022.
- Michael Raska and Richard A. Bitzinger, “The Contours of Emerging Technologies and Future Warfare”, IDSS Paper, 22 February 2022.
Events
- MTP Conference on “Beyond Nuclear: Disruptive Technologies and Strategic Stability in the 21st Century”, November 2023.
- MTP Roundtable on “China’s Defence and Military Innovation Paths” by Dean Cheng, 3 May 2023.
- MTP Workshop on “Future Conflicts – Lessons Learned from Ukraine”, 22-23 November 2022.
- MTP Virtual Roundtable on “Small States, Emerging Technologies and Space Innovation: Creating Space Resiliency” by Gaetan Petit and Grégoire Bourban
- MTP Virtual Roundtable on “How the war in Ukraine is affecting Russian AI research and development” by Samuel Bendett, 11 May 2022.
Invited Presentations
- Michael Raska and Wichuta Teeratanabodee. Delivered a presentation on “The AI Wave in Defence Innovation” at the Responsible AI in the Military Domain Summit, organised by the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 15-16 February 2023.
- Michael Raska. Invited as a Delegate at the IISS Advanced Technology Workshop, organised by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, 12-15 March 2022.
MTP Select Publications (Pre-2020)
Books
- Richard A. Bitzinger, Arming Asia: Technonationalism and its Impact on Local Defense Industries (New York, NY: Routledge 2017).
- Michael Raska, Military Innovation of Small States: Creating a Reverse Asymmetry (New York, NY: Routledge 2016).
- Michael Raska (co-editor), Security, Strategy and Military Change in the 21st Century: Cross-Regional Perspectives (New York, NY: Routledge, 2015).
Book Chapters
- Michael Raska, “Diesel-Electric Submarine Modernisation in Asia: The Role of Air-Independent Propulsion Systems” in Richard Bitzinger (ed.) Emerging Critical Technologies and Security in the Asia-Pacific (London: Palgrave-Macmillan, 2016), 91-106.
- Michael Raska and Richard Bitzinger, “Capacity for Innovation: Technological Drivers in China’s Future Military Modernisation”, in: Roy Kamphausen and David Lai (eds.) The PLA in 2025 (Washington D.C.: The National Bureau of Asian Research, 2015), 129-162.
Journal Articles
- Michael Raska, “Strategic Competition and Future Conflicts in the Indo-Pacific Region”, Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs, 2/2 (2019): 83-97.
Policy Reports
- Michael Raska, “China’s Strategy and the Defence Sector: Advances and Challenges”, in Richard Bitzinger and Nicu Popescu (eds.) The Defence Industry in Russia and China, European Institute for Security Studies, 2017.
- Michael Raska, “Military-Cyber Capabilities in the Asia-Pacific,” in International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment 2017: Key Developments and Trends. London: IISS, 125-140.
- Michael Raska and Vasily Kashin, “Countering the U.S. Third Offset Strategy: Russian Perspectives, Responses, and Challenges,” RSIS Policy Report, 2017.
- Michael Raska, “South Korea’s Military Innovation Trajectories,” in Patrick Cronin (ed.) Breakthrough on the Peninsula: Third Offset Strategies and the Future of Defence of Korea, Center for New American Security, 2016.
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