Mr Tomas Jermalavičius, a Visiting Senior Fellow with the Military Transformations Programme (MTP) at RSIS, delivered a seminar on “Global Implications of the War in Ukraine” on 24 November 2025. Mr Jermalavičius is the Head of Studies and Research Fellow at the International Centre for Defence and Security (ICDS) in Tallinn, Estonia.
The seminar began with a brief history of Russia’s war against Ukraine, tracing its origins to the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Mr Jermalavičius also gave an overview of Russian rationales for the conflict, describing the collapse of the Soviet Union at the end of the Cold War. He highlighted that Russia remained a major power despite the collapse and drew a comparison with Japan and Germany at the end of World War II.
Mr Jermalavičius also described China’s role in the conflict. He argued that China is both an enabler and a restrainer of the war, citing how China has become Russia’s largest oil supplier while simultaneously urging restraint when Russia issued nuclear threats. He also weighed in on the influence of the current Trump administration. He highlighted that the Trump administration has helped to unite the Baltic states in the face of Russian threats, prompting these states to increase their defence spending.
During the Q&A segment, Mr Jermalavičius addressed Singapore’s role. He emphasised that Singapore has adopted the right approach in implementing its Total Defence strategy, and that it upholds a rules-based order and respect for international law. However, he urged that more needs to be done to uphold the responsibility and accountability for the war against Ukraine.
In discussing a potential peace plan mediated by the United States, Mr Jermalavičius highlighted that European states should do more to maximise pressure against Russia. Mr Jermalavičius was sceptical of Russian nuclear threats, describing such threats as a psychological game aimed at North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) member states. He urged NATO to maintain its status as a nuclear alliance.
