Professor Da Wei, Director of the Centre for International Security and Strategy (CISS) and Professor of International Relations at Tsinghua University, spoke at an RSIS seminar on 13 January where he analysed the evolving international order and forecasted US-China relations under a potential second Trump administration. He discussed the impact of nationalism, the decline of globalisation, and shifts in global power dynamics, while suggesting diplomatic solutions.
Professor Da examined the past 16 years of US leadership, emphasising the transformative effects of Trump’s presidency. The second Trump administration may contribute to the end of hyper-globalisation and the liberal international order, intensifying trends of nationalism and populism. Biden’s efforts to restore the US-led order largely fell short, while economic nationalism further eroded the global economic framework. The transition to a multi-centric global political and security system necessitates solutions that address emerging challenges rather than clinging to nostalgia for the past.
The seminar highlighted the historical influence of international order on US-China relations. As the old foundations erode, a new framework for cooperation is essential, focusing on consensus over frustration. Optimism for normalisation persists but faces obstacles, including Republican hostility to China and Trump’s unpredictability. Internal contestations within Trump’s team, ranging from hawkish figures to pragmatic officials, will shape China policy. Xi Jinping’s effective personal diplomacy could influence Trump’s views, particularly during the critical first months of his presidency. But whether Xi has the desire to personally engage with Trump remains unknown.
Having learned from Trump’s first term, China is more prepared with refined strategies and communication. Despite economic challenges, it remains stable and seeks opportunities for cooperation on issues like trade, Taiwan, and Ukraine, while mitigating risks such as escalating trade wars and worsening bilateral ties. Globally, the evolving US-China relationship will influence power dynamics, impacting Europe, Russia, and others, making careful monitoring essential to anticipate policy shifts and outcomes.
