Back
About RSIS
Introduction
Building the Foundations
Welcome Message
Board of Governors
Staff Profiles
Executive Deputy Chairman’s Office
Dean’s Office
Management
Distinguished Fellows
Faculty and Research
Associate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research Analysts
Visiting Fellows
Adjunct Fellows
Administrative Staff
Honours and Awards for RSIS Staff and Students
RSIS Endowment Fund
Endowed Professorships
Career Opportunities
Getting to RSIS
Research
Research Centres
Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)
Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS)
Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)
International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
Research Programmes
National Security Studies Programme (NSSP)
Social Cohesion Research Programme (SCRP)
Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
Other Research
Future Issues and Technology Cluster
Research@RSIS
Science and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
Graduate Education
Graduate Programmes Office
Exchange Partners and Programmes
How to Apply
Financial Assistance
Meet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other events
RSIS Alumni
Outreach
Global Networks
About Global Networks
RSIS Alumni
International Programmes
About International Programmes
Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)
Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)
International Conference on Cohesive Societies (ICCS)
International Strategy Forum-Asia (ISF-Asia)
Executive Education
About Executive Education
SRP Executive Programme
Terrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
Public Education
About Public Education
Publications
RSIS Publications
Annual Reviews
Books
Bulletins and Newsletters
RSIS Commentary Series
Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
Commemorative / Event Reports
Future Issues
IDSS Papers
Interreligious Relations
Monographs
NTS Insight
Policy Reports
Working Papers
External Publications
Authored Books
Journal Articles
Edited Books
Chapters in Edited Books
Policy Reports
Working Papers
Op-Eds
Glossary of Abbreviations
Policy-relevant Articles Given RSIS Award
RSIS Publications for the Year
External Publications for the Year
Media
News Releases
Speeches
Video/Audio Channel
Events
Contact Us
S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies Think Tank and Graduate School Ponder The Improbable Since 1966
Nanyang Technological University Nanyang Technological University
  • About RSIS
      IntroductionBuilding the FoundationsWelcome MessageBoard of GovernorsHonours and Awards for RSIS Staff and StudentsRSIS Endowment FundEndowed ProfessorshipsCareer OpportunitiesGetting to RSIS
      Staff ProfilesExecutive Deputy Chairman’s OfficeDean’s OfficeManagementDistinguished FellowsFaculty and ResearchAssociate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research AnalystsVisiting FellowsAdjunct FellowsAdministrative Staff
  • Research
      Research CentresCentre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS)Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
      Research ProgrammesNational Security Studies Programme (NSSP)Social Cohesion Research Programme (SCRP)Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
      Other ResearchFuture Issues and Technology ClusterResearch@RSISScience and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
  • Graduate Education
      Graduate Programmes OfficeExchange Partners and ProgrammesHow to ApplyFinancial AssistanceMeet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other eventsRSIS Alumni
  • Outreach
      Global NetworksAbout Global NetworksRSIS Alumni
      International ProgrammesAbout International ProgrammesAsia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)International Conference on Cohesive Societies (ICCS)International Strategy Forum-Asia (ISF-Asia)
      Executive EducationAbout Executive EducationSRP Executive ProgrammeTerrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
      Public EducationAbout Public Education
  • Publications
      RSIS PublicationsAnnual ReviewsBooksBulletins and NewslettersRSIS Commentary SeriesCounter Terrorist Trends and AnalysesCommemorative / Event ReportsFuture IssuesIDSS PapersInterreligious RelationsMonographsNTS InsightPolicy ReportsWorking Papers
      External PublicationsAuthored BooksJournal ArticlesEdited BooksChapters in Edited BooksPolicy ReportsWorking PapersOp-Eds
      Glossary of AbbreviationsPolicy-relevant Articles Given RSIS AwardRSIS Publications for the YearExternal Publications for the Year
  • Media
      News ReleasesSpeechesVideo/Audio Channel
  • Events
  • Contact Us
    • Connect with Us

      rsis.ntu
      rsis_ntu
      rsisntu
      rsisvideocast
      school/rsis-ntu
      rsis.sg
      rsissg
      RSIS
      RSS
      Subscribe to RSIS Publications
      Subscribe to RSIS Events

      Getting to RSIS

      Nanyang Technological University
      Block S4, Level B3,
      50 Nanyang Avenue,
      Singapore 639798

      Click here for direction to RSIS
Connect
Search
  • RSIS
  • Publication
  • RSIS Publications
  • CO15283 | Forecast 2016: IS as a Networked Globalised Threat
  • Annual Reviews
  • Books
  • Bulletins and Newsletters
  • RSIS Commentary Series
  • Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
  • Commemorative / Event Reports
  • Future Issues
  • IDSS Papers
  • Interreligious Relations
  • Monographs
  • NTS Insight
  • Policy Reports
  • Working Papers

CO15283 | Forecast 2016: IS as a Networked Globalised Threat
Rohan Gunaratna

30 December 2015

download pdf

Synopsis

Global terrorism will continue to pose the pre-eminent national security threat to the world in 2016. The most severe and imminent will come from Al Qaeda led by Dr Ayman Al Zawahiri, and Islamic State (IS) led by Dr Abu Bakr al Baghdadi. Its ideological and operational dimensions present a formidable challenge to both social stability and security of states.

Commentary

WITH THE rise of Islamic State in June 2014, the world faced an unprecedented and an ever-expanding global threat. Throughout 2015, IS operational capabilities and influence spread worldwide from its epicentre in Iraq and Syria. In 2016, IS is likely to expand its reach to Africa and Asia creating satellite provinces of the Caliphate known as wilayats. These provinces will seek to implement the IS rule of beheadings, mass executions, destruction of historical sites, and pillaging the world witnessed in Iraq and Syria.

In 2016, IS will inspire, instigate and direct attacks in Muslim and non-Muslim countries. In battlefields, IS will hit hardened targets and off the battlefields, IS will hit soft targets. To exercise and expand control in Muslim lands, IS will collaborate with local groups and individuals to hit Shia and Sunni coalition targets. IS will seek to strike targets outside the core area in the new year. Most governments are in denial of the IS threat, unprepared or underprepared to deal with the looming threat.

The IS-centric threat landscape

A new global terrorist threat landscape will emerge in 2016. The Al Qaeda-centric threat landscape is being supplanted by an IS-centric threat landscape. IS rival Al Qaeda has not disappeared off the global terrorism screen, but it has diminished in size, strength and influence. Ideologically both groups are similar but IS is more brutal and barbaric especially against fellow Muslims who have resisted it, thus turning most Muslims and their governments against IS.

IS is likely to grow despite military, diplomatic, political, economic and information operations against it by coalitions led by the United States, Saudi Arabia and Russia. The sectarian and geopolitical rivalry between Saudi-Iranian and US-Russia coalitions in Syria created the opportunities for the rise of IS. While the West, with Turkey and Sunni states oppose the Assad regime, Russia, Iran, and Shia-dominated Iraq and Lebanon support the regime.

Ideology, legacy, and politics preclude a victory against IS and compound the threat. After losing their wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, western nations are reluctant to deploy ground troops. Despite the looming threat, IS cruelty and terrifying threats have deterred Arab countries from fielding ground troops. Except the weakened Syrian and Iraqi armies, the only ground forces effectively fighting IS are the Shia militia, Kurdish and Turkmen fighters.

Understanding IS strategy

Today, IS is a global movement of hundreds of thousand of followers and supporters, with an estimated 80,000 in the eight branches in the principal theatre. According to western security and intelligence estimates IS grew from 30,000 in 2014 to 50,000 fighters in the core area of Iraq and Syria in 2015. With IS declaration of new provinces, the number of branches will increase and membership will grow in 2016.

After reclaiming territory and proclaiming the Caliphate, the IS strategy is to govern the areas it controls in Iraq and Syria with strict Shariah law and expand in Muslim territories from Morocco to the Philippines. IS declared branches after it accepted the pledges of allegiance from local groups. With over 30 groups pledging allegiance to Abu Bakr al Baghdadi in Africa and Asia, IS is likely to accept and declare more branches in North Africa and Southeast Asia in 2016.

Today, IS HQ in Al Raqqah support eight IS branches. Of the IS branches, Wilayat Gharb Afriqiya (North Africa) is the strongest with 9000 members while IS Wilayat al-Haramayn (Saudi Arabia) is about 100 members. Between November 2014 and September 2015, the UK authorities recorded IS having staged 270 attacks. Of these 117 were in West Africa, 47 in Libya, 58 in Sinai, 28 in Yemen, six in Saudi Arabia, one in the Caucasus, eight in Khorasan and five in Algeria. IS iconography spread both in the virtual and real world creating pockets of self radicalised and militarised supporters worldwide.

IS strategy is to firstly, establish control of territory and administer the caliphate; secondly, expand the Caliphate into liberated areas; and thirdly, exploit and destabilise areas. By establishing the caliphate concept, IS is promoting the idea to generate more resources including manpower. By either undermining competing groups and co-opting like-minded others, IS is creating support, resources and capability for future expansion.

IS co-opted likeminded groups and inspired individuals to attack both coalition and domestic targets. With challenges to foreign recruits travelling to Syria and Iraq to join the Caliphate, IS strategy in 2016 will be both vertical and horizontal from building the caliphate in Syria and Iraq to global expansion.

Response

National security agencies in partnership with law enforcement authorities and military forces should map the threat in the immediate (1-2 years); mid (2-5 years) and long term (5-10 years); craft national, regional and global strategies; and guide governments on how to fight the threat. Today, to protect their own countries, security and intelligence services are overstretched: they are diverting a bulk of their resources to preventing attacks.

The United Kingdom’s Security Service Director-General Sir Andrew Parker said on 28 October 2015 that in the past 12 months, Britain had thwarted six plots in the UK and seven plots overseas. The heightened threat led to one fifth of MI5’s 4000 strong staff focused on preventing attacks. Although the mandate of internal services has been traditionally limited to operating on domestic soil, it is essential for all services to function worldwide to counter the networked and globalised threat. Most affected nations doubled the numerical staff strength of their services to fight Al Qaeda after 9/11.

Considering the trajectory of the growth of IS and its influence in 2015, concerned nations should double their existing budgets in 2016 and increase the strengths of counterterrorism officers in the next decade. In preparation for a long war, governments should create counter terrorism divisions in their foreign ministries and justice departments.

While national security agencies should be in the forefront of the initiatives to fight the threat, governments should strengthen government-community partnerships to protect communities and build public-private sector partnerships to protect infrastructure as well.

About the Author

Rohan Gunaratna is Head of the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR) and Professor of Security Studies at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) the Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. This also appeared in The Straits Times.

Categories: RSIS Commentary Series / Country and Region Studies / International Political Economy / International Politics and Security / Terrorism Studies / Africa / Central Asia / Middle East and North Africa (MENA) / Global

Synopsis

Global terrorism will continue to pose the pre-eminent national security threat to the world in 2016. The most severe and imminent will come from Al Qaeda led by Dr Ayman Al Zawahiri, and Islamic State (IS) led by Dr Abu Bakr al Baghdadi. Its ideological and operational dimensions present a formidable challenge to both social stability and security of states.

Commentary

WITH THE rise of Islamic State in June 2014, the world faced an unprecedented and an ever-expanding global threat. Throughout 2015, IS operational capabilities and influence spread worldwide from its epicentre in Iraq and Syria. In 2016, IS is likely to expand its reach to Africa and Asia creating satellite provinces of the Caliphate known as wilayats. These provinces will seek to implement the IS rule of beheadings, mass executions, destruction of historical sites, and pillaging the world witnessed in Iraq and Syria.

In 2016, IS will inspire, instigate and direct attacks in Muslim and non-Muslim countries. In battlefields, IS will hit hardened targets and off the battlefields, IS will hit soft targets. To exercise and expand control in Muslim lands, IS will collaborate with local groups and individuals to hit Shia and Sunni coalition targets. IS will seek to strike targets outside the core area in the new year. Most governments are in denial of the IS threat, unprepared or underprepared to deal with the looming threat.

The IS-centric threat landscape

A new global terrorist threat landscape will emerge in 2016. The Al Qaeda-centric threat landscape is being supplanted by an IS-centric threat landscape. IS rival Al Qaeda has not disappeared off the global terrorism screen, but it has diminished in size, strength and influence. Ideologically both groups are similar but IS is more brutal and barbaric especially against fellow Muslims who have resisted it, thus turning most Muslims and their governments against IS.

IS is likely to grow despite military, diplomatic, political, economic and information operations against it by coalitions led by the United States, Saudi Arabia and Russia. The sectarian and geopolitical rivalry between Saudi-Iranian and US-Russia coalitions in Syria created the opportunities for the rise of IS. While the West, with Turkey and Sunni states oppose the Assad regime, Russia, Iran, and Shia-dominated Iraq and Lebanon support the regime.

Ideology, legacy, and politics preclude a victory against IS and compound the threat. After losing their wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, western nations are reluctant to deploy ground troops. Despite the looming threat, IS cruelty and terrifying threats have deterred Arab countries from fielding ground troops. Except the weakened Syrian and Iraqi armies, the only ground forces effectively fighting IS are the Shia militia, Kurdish and Turkmen fighters.

Understanding IS strategy

Today, IS is a global movement of hundreds of thousand of followers and supporters, with an estimated 80,000 in the eight branches in the principal theatre. According to western security and intelligence estimates IS grew from 30,000 in 2014 to 50,000 fighters in the core area of Iraq and Syria in 2015. With IS declaration of new provinces, the number of branches will increase and membership will grow in 2016.

After reclaiming territory and proclaiming the Caliphate, the IS strategy is to govern the areas it controls in Iraq and Syria with strict Shariah law and expand in Muslim territories from Morocco to the Philippines. IS declared branches after it accepted the pledges of allegiance from local groups. With over 30 groups pledging allegiance to Abu Bakr al Baghdadi in Africa and Asia, IS is likely to accept and declare more branches in North Africa and Southeast Asia in 2016.

Today, IS HQ in Al Raqqah support eight IS branches. Of the IS branches, Wilayat Gharb Afriqiya (North Africa) is the strongest with 9000 members while IS Wilayat al-Haramayn (Saudi Arabia) is about 100 members. Between November 2014 and September 2015, the UK authorities recorded IS having staged 270 attacks. Of these 117 were in West Africa, 47 in Libya, 58 in Sinai, 28 in Yemen, six in Saudi Arabia, one in the Caucasus, eight in Khorasan and five in Algeria. IS iconography spread both in the virtual and real world creating pockets of self radicalised and militarised supporters worldwide.

IS strategy is to firstly, establish control of territory and administer the caliphate; secondly, expand the Caliphate into liberated areas; and thirdly, exploit and destabilise areas. By establishing the caliphate concept, IS is promoting the idea to generate more resources including manpower. By either undermining competing groups and co-opting like-minded others, IS is creating support, resources and capability for future expansion.

IS co-opted likeminded groups and inspired individuals to attack both coalition and domestic targets. With challenges to foreign recruits travelling to Syria and Iraq to join the Caliphate, IS strategy in 2016 will be both vertical and horizontal from building the caliphate in Syria and Iraq to global expansion.

Response

National security agencies in partnership with law enforcement authorities and military forces should map the threat in the immediate (1-2 years); mid (2-5 years) and long term (5-10 years); craft national, regional and global strategies; and guide governments on how to fight the threat. Today, to protect their own countries, security and intelligence services are overstretched: they are diverting a bulk of their resources to preventing attacks.

The United Kingdom’s Security Service Director-General Sir Andrew Parker said on 28 October 2015 that in the past 12 months, Britain had thwarted six plots in the UK and seven plots overseas. The heightened threat led to one fifth of MI5’s 4000 strong staff focused on preventing attacks. Although the mandate of internal services has been traditionally limited to operating on domestic soil, it is essential for all services to function worldwide to counter the networked and globalised threat. Most affected nations doubled the numerical staff strength of their services to fight Al Qaeda after 9/11.

Considering the trajectory of the growth of IS and its influence in 2015, concerned nations should double their existing budgets in 2016 and increase the strengths of counterterrorism officers in the next decade. In preparation for a long war, governments should create counter terrorism divisions in their foreign ministries and justice departments.

While national security agencies should be in the forefront of the initiatives to fight the threat, governments should strengthen government-community partnerships to protect communities and build public-private sector partnerships to protect infrastructure as well.

About the Author

Rohan Gunaratna is Head of the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR) and Professor of Security Studies at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) the Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. This also appeared in The Straits Times.

Categories: RSIS Commentary Series / Country and Region Studies / International Political Economy / International Politics and Security / Terrorism Studies

Popular Links

About RSISResearch ProgrammesGraduate EducationPublicationsEventsAdmissionsCareersVideo/Audio ChannelRSIS Intranet

Connect with Us

rsis.ntu
rsis_ntu
rsisntu
rsisvideocast
school/rsis-ntu
rsis.sg
rsissg
RSIS
RSS
Subscribe to RSIS Publications
Subscribe to RSIS Events

Getting to RSIS

Nanyang Technological University
Block S4, Level B3,
50 Nanyang Avenue,
Singapore 639798

Click here for direction to RSIS

Get in Touch

    Copyright © S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. All rights reserved.
    Privacy Statement / Terms of Use
    Help us improve

      Rate your experience with this website
      123456
      Not satisfiedVery satisfied
      What did you like?
      0/255 characters
      What can be improved?
      0/255 characters
      Your email
      Please enter a valid email.
      Thank you for your feedback.
      This site uses cookies to offer you a better browsing experience. By continuing, you are agreeing to the use of cookies on your device as described in our privacy policy. Learn more
      OK
      Latest Book
      more info