The face of terrorism is evolving amid the persistence of jihadist militancy and the rise and expansion of right-wing extremism in the West. One year on, the COVID-19 pandemic has acted more as an accelerant and a facilitator rather than a game-changer for various forms of terrorism across the ideological spectrum. Though there was an explosion of extremist rhetoric based on the coronavirus feeding into the broader misinformation and disinformation space, research indicates that the militant violence downward trajectory which started in 2016 has continued into 2020 as well. Likewise, no substantial variations were observable in terrorist recruitment and financing too. However, the long-term impact of COVID-19 on terrorism is hard to pinpoint. Extremist groups can potentially exploit the post-pandemic economic uncertainties and public disenfranchisement, particularly of youth, to forward their agendas and interests.

One of the key challenges that has gained prominence during COVID-19 is the threat of mixed ideologies where would-be-extremists, mostly self-radicalised, pick and choose disparate elements across the ideological spectrum to vent their anger and frustration. Identifying such individuals and specifying the nature of their threat to national security has been daunting.  A case in point is the threat posed by the Involuntary Celibate (incel) movement. United by extreme misogyny or their hatred for women, incel members have moved from the fringes of the far-right extremist movement in the West into the mainstream.

Against this backdrop, this current issue has focused on the evolving and emerging terrorist threats amid uncertainties and confusion created by the COVID-19 pandemic. The first article by Raffaello Pantucci examines the actual impact of the contagion on terrorism by looking at four distinct categories: militant violence, ideological narratives, recruitment and fundraising. The author notes that despite loud rhetoric and a plethora of conspiracy theories, the impact of the contagion on pre-existing trends of violent extremism has been somewhat limited. Though terrorist groups, across the ideological spectrum, initially jumped onto the COVID-19 bandwagon by incorporating it in their extremist propaganda for ideological substantiation and validation, their narratives in subsequent months were more about day-to-day affairs than the coronavirus. Likewise, government lockdowns restricted terrorist groups’ physical mobility and fundraising capabilities; yet, no significant change has been visible which could be attributed to the pandemic.

In the following article, Jacob Ware casts a spotlight on the threat from the incel (or involuntary celibates) movement in Asia. According to the author, while some extreme-right factions such as the incel have been growing and becoming more mainstream in the West, the threat remains limited in Asia. The incels have metastasised in recent years from a small online support network into a significant subculture of the online “manosphere.” The incel rhetoric has also become increasingly misogynistic, sexualised and violent. Although there have been several incel-linked attacks in North America and Europe to date, it remains largely a fringe threat that is isolated to the West. Nonetheless, the author argues that the international reach of online forums, including those pushing extremist subcultures, means the incels could find a receptive audience in some Asian societies. As such, regional law enforcement and security agencies need to be aware of the movement, its ideological and geographical trends and possibilities for incel-inspired violence.

In the third article, Reuben Ananthan Santhana Dass assesses the threat of bioterrorism in light of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. According to the author, the devastating social, economic and physical impact of the global health crisis has potentially reignited interest among transnational extremist and terrorist groups such as the Islamic State (IS), in developing, acquiring and deploying biological weapons. However, while recent technological advances have arguably made the development of such weapons easier, cheaper and more accessible, the author argues it is unlikely that threat groups currently possess the know-how to plan and execute large-scale and centrally-directed bio-terror attacks. But the prospect of lone-actor driven and low-impact bio-terror attacks cannot be discounted. As such, countries need to fortify their bio-defense capabilities, especially as the pandemic has highlighted numerous preparedness gaps, including in data sharing, medical equipment availability and testing capacity.

Finally, Prakoso Permono and Muhamad Syauqillah examine the growing incidents of Indonesian pro-IS groups targeting the Chinese Indonesian community. The authors note that while there is a long history of the Chinese Indonesian community being targeted for attacks, there is a lack of official acknowledgment of or research into the problem, even though this has worsened over the last few years and during the pandemic. The authors cite both external and internal factors which have led to a growing number of anti-Chinese terrorist plots in the country. In the eyes of the jihadists, external crises involving overseas Muslims such as the fate of Uyghur and Rohingya Muslims in their respective countries are depicted as oppression by the Chinese or groups broadly associated with Chinese ethnicity. Indonesian jihadists do not distinguish between Chinese nationals and Indonesian Chinese and often target the latter for their retribution. The authors also highlight internal factors such as longstanding socio-economic disparities between the pribumi and Chinese communities, which are exacerbated by conspiracy theories which underpin extremist anti-Chinese narratives. In addition to newspaper sources, the authors use court verdicts on convicted Indonesian terrorists and information obtained through interviews to demonstrate the extent of anti-Chinese jihadist activity in Indonesia.