09 June 2023
Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses (CTTA) – Volume 15 Issue 03
Editorial Note: Southeast Asia’s Weak but Resilient and Evolving Threat Environment
After the collapse of the so-called Islamic State (IS)’s territorial Caliphate in the Middle East and the severe impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global economy and travel movements, the Southeast Asian terrorist landscape has weakened significantly. Likewise, successful counterterrorism operations of regional states, sharp monitoring of the cyberspace, actionable intelligence disrupting terrorist plots as well as arrests and surrenders of militants across Southeast Asia have also contributed to the declining trend of terrorism. However, the terrorist threat persists, evolving along different trajectories and becoming more diffuse and difficult to detect.
The appeal of IS’s ideological narrative has arguably weakened among some Southeast Asian violent extremist groups. Moreover, the region’s oldest and most organised jihadist network Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), has seemingly moved away from violence, although it still harbours ambitions of establishing a radical Islamic state in Indonesia. Growing religious conservatism has also increased the influence of some regional hardline Islamist groups, and attempts by some states to marginalise them, which potentially has a further radicalisation effect.
Likewise, the Southeast Asian diasporic networks, particularly those in Syrian camps with active exposure to IS’ propaganda, constitute future asymmetric security threats to the region. Against this backdrop, the current issue features five articles looking into various dimensions of the Southeast Asian threat landscape, discussing its evolution and future trajectories.
The first article by Navhat Nuraniyah examines the variation in Islamists’ responses to state repression following the 2016 anti-Ahok mass mobilisation in Indonesia. Focusing on the case studies of Hizb ut-Tahrir Indonesia (HTI) and the Islamic Defenders Front (FPI), the author explores why the former chose strategic withdrawal and the latter overt resistance. She argues that organisational dynamics and characteristics provide a better explanation for radicalisation, or a lack thereof, compared to external clampdowns or theological doctrine. The article also considers the potential for militant splinters in both groups, pointing to FPI as carrying a higher risk of producing violent offshoots.
Next, Amy Chew studies the evolution of Jemaah Islamiyah (JI)’s tactics since Para Wijayanto’s leadership. From the violent attacks of the past, the group increasingly today seeks to infiltrate state institutions such as political parties, mass organisations and government agencies, among others, to further its cause. The author highlights a number of recent arrests to underscore the spread of JI’s influence across Indonesia’s political, religious and social spheres. Potential strategies to mitigate JI’s security threat are also discussed, especially in the lead-up to the 2024 legislative and presidential elections.
The third article by Nur Huda Ismail explores radicalisation among segments of Indonesia’s diaspora community, in conjunction with the proliferation of social media and the shift in the Islamic State (IS)’s online strategy to promote a decentralised virtual caliphate. The author identifies two particular groups, Indonesian domestic migrant workers and Indonesian nationals in Syrian displaced persons camps, as vulnerable targets of online pro-IS propaganda. He concludes by underscoring the need to amplify the credible voices of moderate Islamic groups and rehabilitated former militants to counter radical narratives online.
In the fourth article, Rueben Dass and Thomas Koruth Samuel study the decrease in terrorism-related activity in Malaysia since the pandemic. According to the authors, the country remains a potential target for terrorist groups, even as security services have assessed them to currently have limited abilities to carry out attacks. This is attributed to the elimination of influential Malaysian terrorist leaders, the dismantling of terrorist cells, and the movement disruptions caused by the pandemic. Nonetheless, Malaysian authorities remain cautious and proactive in their counter-terrorism efforts.
Finally, Nurhati Tangging and Kenneth Yeo evaluate the combatant surrender programme in the Philippines that was initiated in 2018. The programme has facilitated the reintegration of a number of terrorist surrenders, particularly between 2020 and 2022. The study explores the motivations of terrorists, highlighting factors such as exposure to violence and coercion. It also examines the terminology used for surrendered combatants and the rehabilitation efforts by local Civil Society Organisations (CSOs). The research concludes that the programme effectively reduces terrorism but challenges persist, including the need for continued government financial support to ensure its sustainability, and alternative funding options.
HTML Article Versions
Amy Chew – JI’s Infiltration of State Institutions in Change of Tactics
Nur Huda Ismail – Online Radicalisation of the Indonesian Diaspora
Nurhati Tangging and Kenneth Yeo – Reintegrating Former Terrorist Combatants in Mindanao
Editorial Note: Southeast Asia’s Weak but Resilient and Evolving Threat Environment
After the collapse of the so-called Islamic State (IS)’s territorial Caliphate in the Middle East and the severe impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global economy and travel movements, the Southeast Asian terrorist landscape has weakened significantly. Likewise, successful counterterrorism operations of regional states, sharp monitoring of the cyberspace, actionable intelligence disrupting terrorist plots as well as arrests and surrenders of militants across Southeast Asia have also contributed to the declining trend of terrorism. However, the terrorist threat persists, evolving along different trajectories and becoming more diffuse and difficult to detect.
The appeal of IS’s ideological narrative has arguably weakened among some Southeast Asian violent extremist groups. Moreover, the region’s oldest and most organised jihadist network Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), has seemingly moved away from violence, although it still harbours ambitions of establishing a radical Islamic state in Indonesia. Growing religious conservatism has also increased the influence of some regional hardline Islamist groups, and attempts by some states to marginalise them, which potentially has a further radicalisation effect.
Likewise, the Southeast Asian diasporic networks, particularly those in Syrian camps with active exposure to IS’ propaganda, constitute future asymmetric security threats to the region. Against this backdrop, the current issue features five articles looking into various dimensions of the Southeast Asian threat landscape, discussing its evolution and future trajectories.
The first article by Navhat Nuraniyah examines the variation in Islamists’ responses to state repression following the 2016 anti-Ahok mass mobilisation in Indonesia. Focusing on the case studies of Hizb ut-Tahrir Indonesia (HTI) and the Islamic Defenders Front (FPI), the author explores why the former chose strategic withdrawal and the latter overt resistance. She argues that organisational dynamics and characteristics provide a better explanation for radicalisation, or a lack thereof, compared to external clampdowns or theological doctrine. The article also considers the potential for militant splinters in both groups, pointing to FPI as carrying a higher risk of producing violent offshoots.
Next, Amy Chew studies the evolution of Jemaah Islamiyah (JI)’s tactics since Para Wijayanto’s leadership. From the violent attacks of the past, the group increasingly today seeks to infiltrate state institutions such as political parties, mass organisations and government agencies, among others, to further its cause. The author highlights a number of recent arrests to underscore the spread of JI’s influence across Indonesia’s political, religious and social spheres. Potential strategies to mitigate JI’s security threat are also discussed, especially in the lead-up to the 2024 legislative and presidential elections.
The third article by Nur Huda Ismail explores radicalisation among segments of Indonesia’s diaspora community, in conjunction with the proliferation of social media and the shift in the Islamic State (IS)’s online strategy to promote a decentralised virtual caliphate. The author identifies two particular groups, Indonesian domestic migrant workers and Indonesian nationals in Syrian displaced persons camps, as vulnerable targets of online pro-IS propaganda. He concludes by underscoring the need to amplify the credible voices of moderate Islamic groups and rehabilitated former militants to counter radical narratives online.
In the fourth article, Rueben Dass and Thomas Koruth Samuel study the decrease in terrorism-related activity in Malaysia since the pandemic. According to the authors, the country remains a potential target for terrorist groups, even as security services have assessed them to currently have limited abilities to carry out attacks. This is attributed to the elimination of influential Malaysian terrorist leaders, the dismantling of terrorist cells, and the movement disruptions caused by the pandemic. Nonetheless, Malaysian authorities remain cautious and proactive in their counter-terrorism efforts.
Finally, Nurhati Tangging and Kenneth Yeo evaluate the combatant surrender programme in the Philippines that was initiated in 2018. The programme has facilitated the reintegration of a number of terrorist surrenders, particularly between 2020 and 2022. The study explores the motivations of terrorists, highlighting factors such as exposure to violence and coercion. It also examines the terminology used for surrendered combatants and the rehabilitation efforts by local Civil Society Organisations (CSOs). The research concludes that the programme effectively reduces terrorism but challenges persist, including the need for continued government financial support to ensure its sustainability, and alternative funding options.
HTML Article Versions
Amy Chew – JI’s Infiltration of State Institutions in Change of Tactics
Nur Huda Ismail – Online Radicalisation of the Indonesian Diaspora
Nurhati Tangging and Kenneth Yeo – Reintegrating Former Terrorist Combatants in Mindanao
