10 September 2024
Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses (CTTA) – Volume 16 Issue 04
A Declining but Persistent Threat in Southeast Asia and Beyond
Terrorism in Southeast Asia has declined considerably as both Al-Qaeda (AQ) and the Islamic State (IS)-aligned jihadist groups are struggling under persistent counterterrorism pressure from regional states. In July, Jemaah Islamiyah, a Southeast Asian jihadist group linked to AQ, announced it would disband and move away from violence after twenty years. Enhanced regional cooperation among security institutions, improved intelligence sharing, and a balanced focus on kinetic and non-kinetic responses to violent extremism have suppressed the threat levels. External factors like the decline of IS in the Middle East and AQ’s overall weakening have also played a role in the waning ideological appeal of regional threat groups in Southeast Asia.
At the same time, new and diverse forms of violent extremism have reared their ugly heads, like far-right extremism, lone-actor terrorism, as well as online self-radicalisation. The group-centric radicalisation of the past has been replaced by people radicalising within smaller networks or on their own, by consuming extremist content and absorbing ideological influences, while coping with identity crises pushing them to search for a sense of belonging and meaning in life. The declining number of terrorist plots in the region coupled with sporadic attacks underscore the weakened but persistent nature of the terrorist threat in the region.
Nonetheless, one game-changing event or situational stressor can reignite the old threat groups. Therefore, Southeast Asian governments need to be watchful and keep their guard high. Similarly in South Asia, the region’s fragile stability faces added threats following the recent political turmoil in Bangladesh. The current issue features three articles looking at Southeast Asia’s overall threat picture, deradicalisation efforts in Indonesia, and the emergence of a new militant group in Bangladesh, which, despite its dormancy, can bounce back by benefiting from Bangladesh’s recent political turmoil and re-emergence of some extremist clerics.
The first article by Greg Barton surveys the threat environment across Southeast Asia in 2024, assessing that counterterrorism efforts in the region have shown encouraging results in managing and containing the dynamic and persistent threat of terrorism. In June, JI’s core leadership announced that the group was disbanding as a militant network and shifting its focus towards non-violent religious education. Ongoing peace processes in the southern Philippines and southern Thailand, meanwhile, have resulted in the decommissioning of many fighters in the former and a sharp decline in violent attacks in the latter. Looking ahead, the author argues that the greatest danger in Southeast Asia comes from lone actors inspired and potentially assisted by a resilient IS, although the threat posed by AQ cannot be discounted either, especially in light of divisive sentiments surrounding the conflict in Gaza.
In the next article, Cameron Sumpter discusses the Indonesia Knowledge Hub (I-KHub), an online platform by the country’s National Counterterrorism Agency (BNPT), that plays a key role in preventing violent extremism under its National Action Plan (RAN PE). Initiated in 2020, I-KHub aims to coordinate and share data among provincial Preventing and Countering Violent Extremism (PCVE) stakeholders, fostering collaboration and local ownership. Regional PCVE action plans (RAD PE) have been developed in several provinces, though many often mirror the national plan rather than addressing specific local needs. Additionally, while the I-KHub platform also supports civil society organisations that are crucial in PCVE efforts, more needs to be done to sustain stakeholder collaboration and maintain momentum in Indonesia’s long-term PCVE initiatives.
The third article by Iftekharul Bashar examines the origins and evolution of an AQ-centric Bangladeshi militant group, Jama’atul Ansar Fil Hindal Sharqiya (JAHS), and the country’s response. The author notes that JAHS poses a significant asymmetric threat to Bangladesh due to its advanced training capabilities, strategic alliances, and ongoing radicalisation efforts. Despite the arrest of the group’s key leaders and apparent weakening, the prevailing instability and collapse of the law enforcement apparatus in Bangladesh raises concerns about its potential resurgence.
HTML Article Versions
Greg Barton – Southeast Asia’s Threat Environment in 2024
Cameron Sumpter – Decentralising and Coordinating P/CVE through the Indonesia Knowledge Hub (I-KHub)
A Declining but Persistent Threat in Southeast Asia and Beyond
Terrorism in Southeast Asia has declined considerably as both Al-Qaeda (AQ) and the Islamic State (IS)-aligned jihadist groups are struggling under persistent counterterrorism pressure from regional states. In July, Jemaah Islamiyah, a Southeast Asian jihadist group linked to AQ, announced it would disband and move away from violence after twenty years. Enhanced regional cooperation among security institutions, improved intelligence sharing, and a balanced focus on kinetic and non-kinetic responses to violent extremism have suppressed the threat levels. External factors like the decline of IS in the Middle East and AQ’s overall weakening have also played a role in the waning ideological appeal of regional threat groups in Southeast Asia.
At the same time, new and diverse forms of violent extremism have reared their ugly heads, like far-right extremism, lone-actor terrorism, as well as online self-radicalisation. The group-centric radicalisation of the past has been replaced by people radicalising within smaller networks or on their own, by consuming extremist content and absorbing ideological influences, while coping with identity crises pushing them to search for a sense of belonging and meaning in life. The declining number of terrorist plots in the region coupled with sporadic attacks underscore the weakened but persistent nature of the terrorist threat in the region.
Nonetheless, one game-changing event or situational stressor can reignite the old threat groups. Therefore, Southeast Asian governments need to be watchful and keep their guard high. Similarly in South Asia, the region’s fragile stability faces added threats following the recent political turmoil in Bangladesh. The current issue features three articles looking at Southeast Asia’s overall threat picture, deradicalisation efforts in Indonesia, and the emergence of a new militant group in Bangladesh, which, despite its dormancy, can bounce back by benefiting from Bangladesh’s recent political turmoil and re-emergence of some extremist clerics.
The first article by Greg Barton surveys the threat environment across Southeast Asia in 2024, assessing that counterterrorism efforts in the region have shown encouraging results in managing and containing the dynamic and persistent threat of terrorism. In June, JI’s core leadership announced that the group was disbanding as a militant network and shifting its focus towards non-violent religious education. Ongoing peace processes in the southern Philippines and southern Thailand, meanwhile, have resulted in the decommissioning of many fighters in the former and a sharp decline in violent attacks in the latter. Looking ahead, the author argues that the greatest danger in Southeast Asia comes from lone actors inspired and potentially assisted by a resilient IS, although the threat posed by AQ cannot be discounted either, especially in light of divisive sentiments surrounding the conflict in Gaza.
In the next article, Cameron Sumpter discusses the Indonesia Knowledge Hub (I-KHub), an online platform by the country’s National Counterterrorism Agency (BNPT), that plays a key role in preventing violent extremism under its National Action Plan (RAN PE). Initiated in 2020, I-KHub aims to coordinate and share data among provincial Preventing and Countering Violent Extremism (PCVE) stakeholders, fostering collaboration and local ownership. Regional PCVE action plans (RAD PE) have been developed in several provinces, though many often mirror the national plan rather than addressing specific local needs. Additionally, while the I-KHub platform also supports civil society organisations that are crucial in PCVE efforts, more needs to be done to sustain stakeholder collaboration and maintain momentum in Indonesia’s long-term PCVE initiatives.
The third article by Iftekharul Bashar examines the origins and evolution of an AQ-centric Bangladeshi militant group, Jama’atul Ansar Fil Hindal Sharqiya (JAHS), and the country’s response. The author notes that JAHS poses a significant asymmetric threat to Bangladesh due to its advanced training capabilities, strategic alliances, and ongoing radicalisation efforts. Despite the arrest of the group’s key leaders and apparent weakening, the prevailing instability and collapse of the law enforcement apparatus in Bangladesh raises concerns about its potential resurgence.
HTML Article Versions
Greg Barton – Southeast Asia’s Threat Environment in 2024
Cameron Sumpter – Decentralising and Coordinating P/CVE through the Indonesia Knowledge Hub (I-KHub)
