South Asia’s Diverse and Evolving Threat Landscape amid rising tensions in the Middle East

Alongside Africa and the Middle East, South Asia remains one of the most-affected regions by insurgencies and terrorism shaped by external powers’ interventions in Afghanistan, inter and intra state rivalries, sectarian fissures, governance deficits and the presence of global militant groups like Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State of Khorasan (ISK). While the Taliban’s 2021 return to power in Afghanistan emboldened some regional groups like Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham’s (HTS) success in capturing Syria by ousting the Bashar al-Assad regime has attracted mixed responses from South Asian militant groups.

Critically, South Asian groups have responded to key geopolitical events, such as the May 7-10 India-Pakistan tensions, the Gaza situation, HTS’ rise to power in Syria according to their ideological worldviews and narrow operational agendas to fuel recruitment, funding and radicalisation. Their reactions underscore increasing localisation and regionalisation by appropriating external influences to their local contexts and requirements.

Hostilities between regional rivals Israel and Iran also escalated this month, with air, missile and drone strikes exchanged over 12 days. Though Tehran and Tel Aviv agreed to a ceasefire on June 24, a volatile and tense security environment persists. Any future outbreak and expansion of the Israel-Iran tensions across the Middle East will likely revive sectarian militancy in parts of Pakistan and Afghanistan across the Sunni-Shia divide. If the conflict lingers on, the anti-Iran Sunni secessionist groups like Jaish al-Adl, active in the Sistan-and-Balochistan province near the Iran-Pakistan border, view the invasion of Iran as an opportunity to step up their attacks.

The weakening of Iranian state authority and the emerging governance vacuum in border areas could turn into fertile grounds for militant groups, including ISK and Pakistani Baloch separatist movement. In retaliation, the pro-Iran Shia militias like the Fatemiyoun and the Zainabiyoun brigades could reactivate to defend Shia and Iranian interests in the region. If this were to happen, it will not only create new challenges for the regimes in Pakistan and Afghanistan, but also contribute to overall regional instability and a volatile security environment.

In light of this, the current issue features four salient articles:  the varied reactions of South Asian militant groups to HTS’ takeover of Syria; India’s Operation Sindoor targeting “terror camps” in Pakistan following the April 22 Pahalgam attack in India-administered Kashmir; the remaking of sectarian violence  in Pakistan’s Kurram tribal district against the backdrop of the Iran-Israel tensions and Bangladesh’s counterterrorism challenges after the ouster of former prime minister Sheikh Hasina Wajid in August 2024.

In the first article, Abdul Sayed analyses the reactions of militant groups in Afghanistan and Pakistan following HTS’ takeover of Syria in December 2024. Among local and global jihadist entities such as the Pakistani Taliban and regional branches of Al Qaeda and Islamic State, HTS’s rise to power broadly reaffirmed their jihadist doctrine and pursuit of armed struggle to achieve strategic objectives. According to the author, the messaging of the various groups regarding the HTS takeover has been related to their specific aims and objectives, underpinned by AQ and IS’ adversarial stance towards its leader Abu Muhammad al Julani. The primary focus, however, remains the pursuit of local goals with minimal interest in developments beyond the region, and underscores the localised orientation of the jihadi landscape in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region.

Next, Sudha Ramachandran examines the efficacy of ‘Operation Sindoor’ in the deterrence of cross-border terrorism between India and Pakistan. In response to the April 2025 terrorist attack at Pahalgam in India’s Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), India launched a series of kinetic measures targeting terrorist camps and military bases in Pakistan. While India has faced a protracted struggle with cross-border terrorism since the first India-Pakistan war, it had mostly dealt with this issue through non-kinetic measures. The rise to power of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) under Narendra Modi in 2014, however, marked a shift towards more offensive measures. By examining India and Pakistan’s shared history of cross-border conflict in J&K, the author argues that though ‘Operation Sindoor’ was successful in damaging terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan, it is likely insufficient in deterring future cross-border terrorism.

Thirdly, Iftikhar Firdous assesses the reemergence of Sunni-Shia violence in Pakistan’s Kurram tribal district among rival sectarian tribes, with broader implications across the country. The case study is particularly relevant in the wake of the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict, which could result in a strong sectarian backlash by the Iranian proxies in the country. In this respect, Pakistan’s position on the Iran-Israel conflict will shape the reactions of Iranian proxy groups, especially in Kurram. According to the author, while Kurram’s sectarian strife has metastasized over the last two decades from a local to regional issue with strong links to developments in Syria, an intermingling of sectarian identities, land disputes and external interference account for the current phase of tensions. As such, local conflict resolution interventions have become somewhat ineffective.

Lastly, Iftekharul Bashar explores how the impact of political instability and leadership transitions could reinvigorate the Islamist terrorist threat in Bangladesh. The breakdown in law enforcement, with mass prison escapes – including that of several high-profile militants – as well as public demonstrations, observed in the country since last year are concerning. Amidst such chaos, limited resources have contributed to a lack of focus on counter-terrorism efforts by the interim government. Extremist organisations have exploited the instability through the spread of radical ideologies and attempts to recruit more youths. The author argues that urgent measures are needed to reduce the threat of religious extremism, including community-driven efforts, comprehensive institutional reforms and a renewed commitment to inclusivity, human rights and the rule of law.