Back
About RSIS
Introduction
Building the Foundations
Welcome Message
Board of Governors
Staff Profiles
Executive Deputy Chairman’s Office
Dean’s Office
Management
Distinguished Fellows
Faculty and Research
Associate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research Analysts
Visiting Fellows
Adjunct Fellows
Administrative Staff
Honours and Awards for RSIS Staff and Students
RSIS Endowment Fund
Endowed Professorships
Career Opportunities
Getting to RSIS
Research
Research Centres
Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)
Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS)
Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)
International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
Research Programmes
National Security Studies Programme (NSSP)
Social Cohesion Research Programme (SCRP)
Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
Other Research
Future Issues and Technology Cluster
Research@RSIS
Science and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
Graduate Education
Graduate Programmes Office
Exchange Partners and Programmes
How to Apply
Financial Assistance
Meet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other events
RSIS Alumni
Outreach
Global Networks
About Global Networks
RSIS Alumni
International Programmes
About International Programmes
Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)
Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)
International Conference on Cohesive Societies (ICCS)
International Strategy Forum-Asia (ISF-Asia)
Executive Education
About Executive Education
SRP Executive Programme
Terrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
PUBLIC EDUCATION
About Public Education
Publications
RSIS Publications
Annual Reviews
Books
Bulletins and Newsletters
RSIS Commentary Series
Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
Commemorative / Event Reports
Future Issues
IDSS Papers
Interreligious Relations
Monographs
NTS Insight
Policy Reports
Working Papers
External Publications
Authored Books
Journal Articles
Edited Books
Chapters in Edited Books
Policy Reports
Working Papers
Op-Eds
Glossary of Abbreviations
Policy-relevant Articles Given RSIS Award
RSIS Publications for the Year
External Publications for the Year
Media
News Releases
Speeches
Video/Audio Channel
Events
Contact Us
S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies Think Tank and Graduate School Ponder The Improbable Since 1966
Nanyang Technological University Nanyang Technological University
  • About RSIS
      IntroductionBuilding the FoundationsWelcome MessageBoard of GovernorsHonours and Awards for RSIS Staff and StudentsRSIS Endowment FundEndowed ProfessorshipsCareer OpportunitiesGetting to RSIS
      Staff ProfilesExecutive Deputy Chairman’s OfficeDean’s OfficeManagementDistinguished FellowsFaculty and ResearchAssociate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research AnalystsVisiting FellowsAdjunct FellowsAdministrative Staff
  • Research
      Research CentresCentre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS)Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
      Research ProgrammesNational Security Studies Programme (NSSP)Social Cohesion Research Programme (SCRP)Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
      Other ResearchFuture Issues and Technology ClusterResearch@RSISScience and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
  • Graduate Education
      Graduate Programmes OfficeExchange Partners and ProgrammesHow to ApplyFinancial AssistanceMeet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other eventsRSIS Alumni
  • Outreach
      Global NetworksAbout Global NetworksRSIS Alumni
      International ProgrammesAbout International ProgrammesAsia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)International Conference on Cohesive Societies (ICCS)International Strategy Forum-Asia (ISF-Asia)
      Executive EducationAbout Executive EducationSRP Executive ProgrammeTerrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
      PUBLIC EDUCATIONAbout Public Education
  • Publications
      RSIS PublicationsAnnual ReviewsBooksBulletins and NewslettersRSIS Commentary SeriesCounter Terrorist Trends and AnalysesCommemorative / Event ReportsFuture IssuesIDSS PapersInterreligious RelationsMonographsNTS InsightPolicy ReportsWorking Papers
      External PublicationsAuthored BooksJournal ArticlesEdited BooksChapters in Edited BooksPolicy ReportsWorking PapersOp-Eds
      Glossary of AbbreviationsPolicy-relevant Articles Given RSIS AwardRSIS Publications for the YearExternal Publications for the Year
  • Media
      News ReleasesSpeechesVideo/Audio Channel
  • Events
  • Contact Us
    • Connect with Us

      rsis.ntu
      rsis_ntu
      rsisntu
      rsisvideocast
      school/rsis-ntu
      rsis.sg
      rsissg
      RSIS
      RSS
      Subscribe to RSIS Publications
      Subscribe to RSIS Events

      Getting to RSIS

      Nanyang Technological University
      Block S4, Level B3,
      50 Nanyang Avenue,
      Singapore 639798

      Click here for direction to RSIS
Connect
Search
  • RSIS
  • Publication
  • RSIS Publications
  • Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis (CTTA) – Volume 7, Issue 01
  • Annual Reviews
  • Books
  • Bulletins and Newsletters
  • RSIS Commentary Series
  • Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
  • Commemorative / Event Reports
  • Future Issues
  • IDSS Papers
  • Interreligious Relations
  • Monographs
  • NTS Insight
  • Policy Reports
  • Working Papers

Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis (CTTA) – Volume 7, Issue 01
Rohan Gunaratna, Nodirbek Soliev, Abdul Basit, Stefanie Kam

01 February 2015

download pdf

From a terrorism and counterterrorism perspective, the year 2014 was particularly significant. This was due as much to the potential impact of drawdown of US and International Security Assistance Forces (ISAF) from Afghanistan as to the declaration of the establishment of a so-called Islamic Caliphate by the Islamic State of Iraq and Greater Syria (ISIS). While the former has emboldened old and established groups like Al Qaeda Central, the Afghan Taliban, the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, among others, the claim of the establishment of the “so called Islamic State” by ISIS seem to have galvanized disparate elements within the Muslim world, drawing fighters in thousands to Iraq and Syria and spurring radicalization and extremism in many countries in an unprecedented scale.

Southeast Asia
Even if there were no major attacks, the countries in Southeast Asia had to deal with the impact of ISIS. This was most evident in Indonesia and Malaysia with a number of citizens of respective countries found to be involved with ISIS – either joining the fight in Iraq or Syria or indulging in recruitment for the same or both. At the same time regional groups, especially in Indonesia, continue to target the “near enemy” – the government establishment and its security apparatus and personnel. In the Philippines, even as Manila proceeds to finalize the negotiated settlement with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), it had to deal with other armed groups in the country such as the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF), the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) and the Communists. Thailand continues to grapple with a fragile political process that has relegated Bangkok’s dealing with the Southern Thai militancy to the background. Finally, while Myanmar has been striding along on the routes to democratization, it is still grappling with myriad ethnic armed groups, not the least of which has been the Rohingiyas.

South Asia
Afghanistan underwent a smooth democratic transition in terms of its presidency and government. However, with rising levels of violence by the Taliban and no sign of a negotiated settlement between the warring parties, Afghanistan’s future has become more uncertain which portends significant challenges for the country, the region and the international community at large. In Bangladesh, old groups continue to present threats, whilst new outfits like Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) are also targeting the country. AQIS also has India in its sights, despite an overall decline in terrorist activity. The threat in India is further heightened with the growing influence of ISIS in the country and the spread of left-wing militancy. Pakistan continues to reel under its home-grown terrorist threat, the most significant being the massive attack on a school in Peshawar in December 2014, perpetrated by the Pakistan Taliban. In Sri Lanka, the revival of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Elam (LTTE), with challenges from Islamist and Sinhalese extremist groups have become an emerging concern.

Central and East Asia
Countries in Central Asia – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan – have two main concerns. The first is the drawdown of the US-led international forces from Afghanistan, and the second is the increasing number of Central Asians travelling to Syria and Iraq to fight along with the ISIS and other jihadist groups. At the same time, the violence in Xinjiang and other parts of China and the presence of Uighur militants in the Middle East and in Southeast Asia raised new concerns about the terrorist threat and Beijing’s response to the same.

Middle East
In 2014, events in the Middle East were completely dominated by the rise of ISIS which brought the involvement of the US and the countries in Europe and most importantly some of the Muslim countries in the region to the forefront. Despite significant losses in terms of territory, personnel and financing, ISIS threat is still not out. At the same time the Israeli-Palestinian conflict continues to be a major determinant of Middle East stability, as before. The resignation of the Yemeni President, the death of the Saudi King and the growing instability in Libya and Syria portend significant challenges for the region’s security in months ahead.

Africa
Egypt’s challenges stemmed from frequent attacks on civilians and security forces by non-state armed groups galvanized by political instability. The outlook for Libya remains bleak with diverse militias – once instrumental for the removal of Muammar Gadaffi – themselves becoming country’s greatest security concern. While Nigeria reeled under Boko Haram threats, Somalia was hammered with attacks by al-Shabaab, despite the killing of its leader Ahmed Abdi Godane in September 2014.

South America
In 2014, Colombia experienced a continuation of attacks from the insurgent groups and the country’s right-wing armed criminal groups, Bandas Criminales. Peace talks also continued with the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) despite skepticism about its successful outcome.

Looking Ahead
From a counterterrorism perspective, the response, either by concerned countries or collectively by the international community, remains deficient and often counterproductive as before. While many countries affected by the renewed violence lack capability, the support to these countries by the international community, especially by the US, has unfortunately been ambivalent. This is further complicated by the debate about the nature of the threat, especially from ISIS and Al Qaeda that respective counties confront and the issue of commitment of resources by countries like the US due to domestic constraints.

 

Categories: Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses / Conflict and Stability / International Politics and Security / Terrorism Studies / Middle East and North Africa (MENA) / Africa / Americas / Central Asia / East Asia and Asia Pacific / South Asia / Southeast Asia and ASEAN

From a terrorism and counterterrorism perspective, the year 2014 was particularly significant. This was due as much to the potential impact of drawdown of US and International Security Assistance Forces (ISAF) from Afghanistan as to the declaration of the establishment of a so-called Islamic Caliphate by the Islamic State of Iraq and Greater Syria (ISIS). While the former has emboldened old and established groups like Al Qaeda Central, the Afghan Taliban, the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, among others, the claim of the establishment of the “so called Islamic State” by ISIS seem to have galvanized disparate elements within the Muslim world, drawing fighters in thousands to Iraq and Syria and spurring radicalization and extremism in many countries in an unprecedented scale.

Southeast Asia
Even if there were no major attacks, the countries in Southeast Asia had to deal with the impact of ISIS. This was most evident in Indonesia and Malaysia with a number of citizens of respective countries found to be involved with ISIS – either joining the fight in Iraq or Syria or indulging in recruitment for the same or both. At the same time regional groups, especially in Indonesia, continue to target the “near enemy” – the government establishment and its security apparatus and personnel. In the Philippines, even as Manila proceeds to finalize the negotiated settlement with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), it had to deal with other armed groups in the country such as the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF), the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) and the Communists. Thailand continues to grapple with a fragile political process that has relegated Bangkok’s dealing with the Southern Thai militancy to the background. Finally, while Myanmar has been striding along on the routes to democratization, it is still grappling with myriad ethnic armed groups, not the least of which has been the Rohingiyas.

South Asia
Afghanistan underwent a smooth democratic transition in terms of its presidency and government. However, with rising levels of violence by the Taliban and no sign of a negotiated settlement between the warring parties, Afghanistan’s future has become more uncertain which portends significant challenges for the country, the region and the international community at large. In Bangladesh, old groups continue to present threats, whilst new outfits like Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) are also targeting the country. AQIS also has India in its sights, despite an overall decline in terrorist activity. The threat in India is further heightened with the growing influence of ISIS in the country and the spread of left-wing militancy. Pakistan continues to reel under its home-grown terrorist threat, the most significant being the massive attack on a school in Peshawar in December 2014, perpetrated by the Pakistan Taliban. In Sri Lanka, the revival of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Elam (LTTE), with challenges from Islamist and Sinhalese extremist groups have become an emerging concern.

Central and East Asia
Countries in Central Asia – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan – have two main concerns. The first is the drawdown of the US-led international forces from Afghanistan, and the second is the increasing number of Central Asians travelling to Syria and Iraq to fight along with the ISIS and other jihadist groups. At the same time, the violence in Xinjiang and other parts of China and the presence of Uighur militants in the Middle East and in Southeast Asia raised new concerns about the terrorist threat and Beijing’s response to the same.

Middle East
In 2014, events in the Middle East were completely dominated by the rise of ISIS which brought the involvement of the US and the countries in Europe and most importantly some of the Muslim countries in the region to the forefront. Despite significant losses in terms of territory, personnel and financing, ISIS threat is still not out. At the same time the Israeli-Palestinian conflict continues to be a major determinant of Middle East stability, as before. The resignation of the Yemeni President, the death of the Saudi King and the growing instability in Libya and Syria portend significant challenges for the region’s security in months ahead.

Africa
Egypt’s challenges stemmed from frequent attacks on civilians and security forces by non-state armed groups galvanized by political instability. The outlook for Libya remains bleak with diverse militias – once instrumental for the removal of Muammar Gadaffi – themselves becoming country’s greatest security concern. While Nigeria reeled under Boko Haram threats, Somalia was hammered with attacks by al-Shabaab, despite the killing of its leader Ahmed Abdi Godane in September 2014.

South America
In 2014, Colombia experienced a continuation of attacks from the insurgent groups and the country’s right-wing armed criminal groups, Bandas Criminales. Peace talks also continued with the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) despite skepticism about its successful outcome.

Looking Ahead
From a counterterrorism perspective, the response, either by concerned countries or collectively by the international community, remains deficient and often counterproductive as before. While many countries affected by the renewed violence lack capability, the support to these countries by the international community, especially by the US, has unfortunately been ambivalent. This is further complicated by the debate about the nature of the threat, especially from ISIS and Al Qaeda that respective counties confront and the issue of commitment of resources by countries like the US due to domestic constraints.

 

Categories: Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses / Conflict and Stability / International Politics and Security / Terrorism Studies

Popular Links

About RSISResearch ProgrammesGraduate EducationPublicationsEventsAdmissionsCareersVideo/Audio ChannelRSIS Intranet

Connect with Us

rsis.ntu
rsis_ntu
rsisntu
rsisvideocast
school/rsis-ntu
rsis.sg
rsissg
RSIS
RSS
Subscribe to RSIS Publications
Subscribe to RSIS Events

Getting to RSIS

Nanyang Technological University
Block S4, Level B3,
50 Nanyang Avenue,
Singapore 639798

Click here for direction to RSIS

Get in Touch

    Copyright © S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. All rights reserved.
    Privacy Statement / Terms of Use
    Help us improve

      Rate your experience with this website
      123456
      Not satisfiedVery satisfied
      What did you like?
      0/255 characters
      What can be improved?
      0/255 characters
      Your email
      Please enter a valid email.
      Thank you for your feedback.
      This site uses cookies to offer you a better browsing experience. By continuing, you are agreeing to the use of cookies on your device as described in our privacy policy. Learn more
      OK
      Latest Book
      more info