01 February 2004
WP061 | Outlook on the Indonesian Parliamentary Election 2004
Abstract
Indonesia will be holding a series of general elections this year. The closest of which is
the parliamentary election. While much attention has been paid on the direct presidential
election, the parliamentary election is at least equally important, since only major parties
or coalition of parties would be able to nominate candidates for the presidential election.
Historically, the Indonesian politics have been organized around political groupings
known as the aliran, especially in conditions of unimpeded political competition. The
last election in 1999 marked a return of aliran politics after a long hiatus. The election
this year will not bring a major change to the structure of the aliran politics. The major
parties will still be those that have strong aliran bases, either in the nationalist, modernist
Muslim or traditionalist Muslim camps. Having said that, the election this year will see
an interesting dynamism, particularly in the nationalist camp, where the Sukarnoist
parties led by the PDI-P will face challenges from some Suhartoist parties. In the
modernist and traditionalist aliran, the race will be more structured and simple. A heated
struggle for the non-aliran votes will occur, especially within Golkar. In the near future,
a struggle for power in Golkar likely will take place and will probably change the outlook
of the election.
Abstract
Indonesia will be holding a series of general elections this year. The closest of which is
the parliamentary election. While much attention has been paid on the direct presidential
election, the parliamentary election is at least equally important, since only major parties
or coalition of parties would be able to nominate candidates for the presidential election.
Historically, the Indonesian politics have been organized around political groupings
known as the aliran, especially in conditions of unimpeded political competition. The
last election in 1999 marked a return of aliran politics after a long hiatus. The election
this year will not bring a major change to the structure of the aliran politics. The major
parties will still be those that have strong aliran bases, either in the nationalist, modernist
Muslim or traditionalist Muslim camps. Having said that, the election this year will see
an interesting dynamism, particularly in the nationalist camp, where the Sukarnoist
parties led by the PDI-P will face challenges from some Suhartoist parties. In the
modernist and traditionalist aliran, the race will be more structured and simple. A heated
struggle for the non-aliran votes will occur, especially within Golkar. In the near future,
a struggle for power in Golkar likely will take place and will probably change the outlook
of the election.
