05 January 2016
Assessing the Future Maritime Environment in Asia
Executive Summary
This workshop discussed factors that could determine the future maritime environment of Asia. It reviewed the strategic outlook for the region identifying the assertive actions by China, the strategic rivalry between China and the United States (U.S.), the lack of strategic trust in the region, the difficulties of resolving sovereignty disputes, and questions about the roles of India, Japan and Russia as important factors. Most participants tended to be optimistic about the future mainly because of the high levels of economic inter-dependence.
The workshop also assessed key issues that could influence the future maritime environment, including regional naval developments, marine environmental threats, and the ability (or inability) of existing regional institutions to manage the maritime challenges in the region. Concerns were evident about the ability of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and its associated forums to handle these challenges. The lack of strategic trust was extensively discussed with some ideas developed about the potential for considering trust at different levels—strategic trust at a higher political level and operational trust at an operational level to allow maritime cooperation on issues such as search and rescue, environmental protection and law enforcement to progress. Freedoms of Navigation (FON) emerged as a key issue at the workshop with some differing views being expressed as to their meaning and purpose.
The major challenge with determining the future maritime environment of the region is to develop measures that might move the region from the current trajectory of competition to one of cooperation. Two issues are significant—first, there is a need for a forum to take charge of civil maritime cooperation in the region (potentially the Expanded ASEAN Maritime Forum or EAMF), and second, there is a need to manage the consequences of larger and more capable navies in the region. This second requirement might fall to the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus (ADMM-Plus) forum.
Executive Summary
This workshop discussed factors that could determine the future maritime environment of Asia. It reviewed the strategic outlook for the region identifying the assertive actions by China, the strategic rivalry between China and the United States (U.S.), the lack of strategic trust in the region, the difficulties of resolving sovereignty disputes, and questions about the roles of India, Japan and Russia as important factors. Most participants tended to be optimistic about the future mainly because of the high levels of economic inter-dependence.
The workshop also assessed key issues that could influence the future maritime environment, including regional naval developments, marine environmental threats, and the ability (or inability) of existing regional institutions to manage the maritime challenges in the region. Concerns were evident about the ability of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and its associated forums to handle these challenges. The lack of strategic trust was extensively discussed with some ideas developed about the potential for considering trust at different levels—strategic trust at a higher political level and operational trust at an operational level to allow maritime cooperation on issues such as search and rescue, environmental protection and law enforcement to progress. Freedoms of Navigation (FON) emerged as a key issue at the workshop with some differing views being expressed as to their meaning and purpose.
The major challenge with determining the future maritime environment of the region is to develop measures that might move the region from the current trajectory of competition to one of cooperation. Two issues are significant—first, there is a need for a forum to take charge of civil maritime cooperation in the region (potentially the Expanded ASEAN Maritime Forum or EAMF), and second, there is a need to manage the consequences of larger and more capable navies in the region. This second requirement might fall to the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus (ADMM-Plus) forum.
