25 January 2023
Future Conflicts – Lessons Learned from Ukraine
Executive Summary
Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine has busted many myths, perhaps none more than the myth that, over the past decade or so, Russia has successfully transformed and modernised its armed forces. Nevertheless, since the start of the Russian offensive in Ukraine on February 24, 2022, military analysts and strategic thinkers have been observing the conflict’s developments, trying to ascertain potential lessons learned. Much of the discussion, however, has been limited to Western and Russian debates, with implications on the future of Asian armies nearly absent.
This workshop sought to redress this deficiency. The RSIS Military Transformations Programme (MTP) has long explored long-range trends and developments regarding future warfare in East Asia. MTP has focused on issues such as future forms of hybrid warfare, emerging technologies, and the future of defence innovation. This workshop specifically sought to address how the ongoing war in Ukraine might impact future warfare in East Asia, particularly:
- How is the character and conduct of warfare in the 21st Century evolving, based on outcomes so far in the Russo-Ukrainian war?
- How might lessons from the Russo-Ukrainian war manifest themselves in terms of military competitions as they affect the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait?
- Are there specific lessons that militaries in Northeast and Southeast Asia may draw from the Russo-Ukrainian war in terms of future defence modernisation and transformation plans?
Executive Summary
Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine has busted many myths, perhaps none more than the myth that, over the past decade or so, Russia has successfully transformed and modernised its armed forces. Nevertheless, since the start of the Russian offensive in Ukraine on February 24, 2022, military analysts and strategic thinkers have been observing the conflict’s developments, trying to ascertain potential lessons learned. Much of the discussion, however, has been limited to Western and Russian debates, with implications on the future of Asian armies nearly absent.
This workshop sought to redress this deficiency. The RSIS Military Transformations Programme (MTP) has long explored long-range trends and developments regarding future warfare in East Asia. MTP has focused on issues such as future forms of hybrid warfare, emerging technologies, and the future of defence innovation. This workshop specifically sought to address how the ongoing war in Ukraine might impact future warfare in East Asia, particularly:
- How is the character and conduct of warfare in the 21st Century evolving, based on outcomes so far in the Russo-Ukrainian war?
- How might lessons from the Russo-Ukrainian war manifest themselves in terms of military competitions as they affect the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait?
- Are there specific lessons that militaries in Northeast and Southeast Asia may draw from the Russo-Ukrainian war in terms of future defence modernisation and transformation plans?
