Back
About RSIS
Introduction
Building the Foundations
Welcome Message
Board of Governors
Staff Profiles
Executive Deputy Chairman’s Office
Dean’s Office
Management
Distinguished Fellows
Faculty and Research
Associate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research Analysts
Visiting Fellows
Adjunct Fellows
Administrative Staff
Honours and Awards for RSIS Staff and Students
RSIS Endowment Fund
Endowed Professorships
Career Opportunities
Getting to RSIS
Research
Research Centres
Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)
Centre of Excellence for National Security
Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)
International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
Research Programmes
National Security Studies Programme (NSSP)
Social Cohesion Research Programme (SCRP)
Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
Other Research
Future Issues and Technology Cluster
Research@RSIS
Science and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
Graduate Education
Graduate Programmes Office
Exchange Partners and Programmes
How to Apply
Financial Assistance
Meet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other events
RSIS Alumni
Outreach
Global Networks
About Global Networks
RSIS Alumni
Executive Education
About Executive Education
SRP Executive Programme
Terrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
International Programmes
About International Programmes
Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)
Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)
International Conference on Cohesive Societies (ICCS)
International Strategy Forum-Asia (ISF-Asia)
Publications
RSIS Publications
Annual Reviews
Books
Bulletins and Newsletters
RSIS Commentary Series
Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
Commemorative / Event Reports
Future Issues
IDSS Papers
Interreligious Relations
Monographs
NTS Insight
Policy Reports
Working Papers
External Publications
Authored Books
Journal Articles
Edited Books
Chapters in Edited Books
Policy Reports
Working Papers
Op-Eds
Glossary of Abbreviations
Policy-relevant Articles Given RSIS Award
RSIS Publications for the Year
External Publications for the Year
Media
Cohesive Societies
Sustainable Security
Other Resource Pages
News Releases
Speeches
Video/Audio Channel
External Podcasts
Events
Contact Us
S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies Think Tank and Graduate School Ponder The Improbable Since 1966
Nanyang Technological University Nanyang Technological University
  • About RSIS
      IntroductionBuilding the FoundationsWelcome MessageBoard of GovernorsHonours and Awards for RSIS Staff and StudentsRSIS Endowment FundEndowed ProfessorshipsCareer OpportunitiesGetting to RSIS
      Staff ProfilesExecutive Deputy Chairman’s OfficeDean’s OfficeManagementDistinguished FellowsFaculty and ResearchAssociate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research AnalystsVisiting FellowsAdjunct FellowsAdministrative Staff
  • Research
      Research CentresCentre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)Centre of Excellence for National SecurityInstitute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
      Research ProgrammesNational Security Studies Programme (NSSP)Social Cohesion Research Programme (SCRP)Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
      Other ResearchFuture Issues and Technology ClusterResearch@RSISScience and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
  • Graduate Education
      Graduate Programmes OfficeExchange Partners and ProgrammesHow to ApplyFinancial AssistanceMeet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other eventsRSIS Alumni
  • Outreach
      Global NetworksAbout Global NetworksRSIS Alumni
      Executive EducationAbout Executive EducationSRP Executive ProgrammeTerrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
      International ProgrammesAbout International ProgrammesAsia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)International Conference on Cohesive Societies (ICCS)International Strategy Forum-Asia (ISF-Asia)
  • Publications
      RSIS PublicationsAnnual ReviewsBooksBulletins and NewslettersRSIS Commentary SeriesCounter Terrorist Trends and AnalysesCommemorative / Event ReportsFuture IssuesIDSS PapersInterreligious RelationsMonographsNTS InsightPolicy ReportsWorking Papers
      External PublicationsAuthored BooksJournal ArticlesEdited BooksChapters in Edited BooksPolicy ReportsWorking PapersOp-Eds
      Glossary of AbbreviationsPolicy-relevant Articles Given RSIS AwardRSIS Publications for the YearExternal Publications for the Year
  • Media
      Cohesive SocietiesSustainable SecurityOther Resource PagesNews ReleasesSpeechesVideo/Audio ChannelExternal Podcasts
  • Events
  • Contact Us
    • Connect with Us

      rsis.ntu
      rsis_ntu
      rsisntu
      rsisvideocast
      school/rsis-ntu
      rsis.sg
      rsissg
      RSIS
      RSS
      Subscribe to RSIS Publications
      Subscribe to RSIS Events

      Getting to RSIS

      Nanyang Technological University
      Block S4, Level B3,
      50 Nanyang Avenue,
      Singapore 639798

      Click here for direction to RSIS

      Get in Touch

    Connect
    Search
    • RSIS
    • Publication
    • RSIS Publications
    • IP23086 | Anies Baswedan and the 2024 Presidential Election: Preserving the Right, Capturing the Middle
    • Annual Reviews
    • Books
    • Bulletins and Newsletters
    • RSIS Commentary Series
    • Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
    • Commemorative / Event Reports
    • Future Issues
    • IDSS Papers
    • Interreligious Relations
    • Monographs
    • NTS Insight
    • Policy Reports
    • Working Papers

    IP23086 | Anies Baswedan and the 2024 Presidential Election: Preserving the Right, Capturing the Middle
    Irman Gurmilang Lanti, Adhi Priamarizki

    29 November 2023

    download pdf


    There has been significant doubt over Anies Baswedan’s electability in the 2024 presidential election. However, surveys on Anies’s electability in the past two months indicated a slight but steady rise. IRMAN G. LANTI and ADHI PRIAMARIZKI discuss Anies’s presidential campaign strategy, its challenges, and opportunities.

       

     

     

    COMMENTARY

    After languishing in the polls as a distant third all year round, ex-Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan’s bid for the Indonesian presidency has caught a second wind among growing concerns about political dynasties and potential election interference by the incumbent president. Protest voters frustrated with the Indonesian political scene has started to flock to Anies, who is now in good position to compete with former Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo for second place. Having campaigned as an opposition candidate from the very beginning, Anies is better positioned than Ganjar to fly the opposition flag.

    Who is Anies Baswedan and how is he positioning his candidacy to expand his supporter base? How can he strengthen his electability moving into the official campaign season? These questions will be addressed in this piece.

    IP23086
    Indonesian presidential candidate Anies Baswedan’s popularity has been picking up in the latest polls for the 2024 presidential election. However, Anies still has a lot to do to increase his electability. Image by author.

    Anies: A Reluctant Religious Conservative

    Anies hails from a family of Muslim political activists. His grandfather, A. R. Baswedan, founded the Indonesian Arab Party and later joined Masyumi, a modernist Islamic party, in the 1950s. A student activist during his university years in Gajah Mada, Anies was part of the Islamic Student Union (HMI). Subsequently, he pursued further studies in the United States and developed an affinity for progressive issues such as democracy, pluralism, and gender equality.

    After returning to Indonesia, Anies became Indonesia’s youngest rector at the University of Paramadina, established by Nurcholish Madjid, a prominent progressive Islamic thinker in Indonesia. During his time at Paramadina, he pioneered the “Teach Indonesia” movement, funding young university students for one-year stints in remote regions to serve the local community as teachers. These progressive and reformist credentials led him to eventually join Jokowi’s first election campaign in 2014 as campaign spokesperson and subsequently as education minister.

    However, his track record as a progressive academic has been marred by the political compromises he made to win the 2017 Jakarta gubernatorial election. Anies saw an opportunity to exploit identity politics against incumbent Governor Ahok, a Chinese Christian, to gain the support of conservative Islamic groups. Although Anies later tried to govern Jakarta in an inclusive manner, his main constituents (progressive, minority, and educated voters) remained deeply ambivalent about how he came to power in 2017.

    Anies’s Coalition: Overcoming Strange Bedfellows

    Anies is supported by a three-party coalition consisting of the Nasdem (National Democrat) Party, the modernist Islamic party PKS (Partai Keadilan Sejahtera – Justice Prosperous Party), and the traditionalist Muslim party PKB (Partai Kebangkitan Bangsa – National Awakening Party). The latest survey results show that Anies is polling behind Prabowo in key provinces with large numbers of modernist and conservative Muslims (Banten, West Java, and West Sumatra). Anies is only doing well in Jakarta.

    This circumstance requires Anies’s coalition parties, notably PKB and PKS, to maximise their political machinery to improve the former Jakarta governor’s chance of winning the presidential race. In East Java, a province where PKB dominates, Anies is trailing behind the other candidates. There is no clear sign that Anies is attractive to the traditionalist Muslims in the province. Additionally, the inclusion of Mahfud MD, a native of Madura, as Ganjar Pranowo’s vice-presidential candidate has toughened the East Java battleground.

    Despite the bleak progress, PKB can still overcome the situation by maximising the contribution of its cadre and key figures. Indikator’s November survey indicated that PKB votes are the most fragmented in comparison to PKS and Nasdem in supporting their presidential candidate pair. Thus, internal consolidation, including the party’s influence over local Islamic boarding schools, will be key for PKB to maximise its political machinery.

    Unlike PKB, PKS has been showing a relatively united front in supporting Anies’s candidacy. Nonetheless, PKS does not possess superb electoral dominance. While PKS dominates in the urban areas of West Java and West Sumatera, and owns significant vote share in Jakarta, it is not enough to single-handedly rule them.

    On the other hand, the possibility of securing a larger Muslim vote share from the alliance of PKB and PKS remains to be seen. However, these two parties can help secure some Muslim segments that are closely associated with each of them. PKS and PKB were also in the same team back in the 2009 presidential election, when they supported President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s re-election.

    Preserving the Right, Capturing the Middle

    Anies’s coalition seems to believe that for him to win enough votes to head to the runoff election, he needs to consolidate support not just from his Islamist base and voters who disapprove of Jokowi’s government (~20-25% of voters) but also from those who like his technocratic track record and progressive ideas.

    However, Anies has established a reputation of being involved with the far right of the Islamic spectrum primarily during his campaign in the 2017 Jakarta gubernatorial election. Thus, capturing the middle voters will be beneficial in increasing his electability. His quest to gain the middle ground is reflected in the way he supported religious and ethnic minorities’ activities during his time as governor of Jakarta.

    He also attempts to portray himself as the face of an educated and modern Indonesian, which contradicts Jokowi’s image of an ordinary person (orang biasa). Another interesting point is Anies’s liberal idea of global citizenship during his foreign policy speech at a seminar conducted by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Indonesia. Furthermore, he has been highlighting the current administration’s failure in ensuring inclusive economic development.

    In addition to his attempt to capture the middle, Anies also entertains his conservative Islamic sympathisers. Recently, two Islamic hardliner groups, 212 Alumni Association (PA 212) and National Cleric’s Fatwa Defender Movement (GNPF Ulama), convened the ijtima ulama (cleric congregation) and declared support for the Anies-Muhaiman pair. The event hinted at continued relations between Anies and those hardliners. It is implicitly acknowledged that these hardliners have nowhere to go but Anies’s camp, as they labelled Prabowo a traitor when he joined Jokowi’s cabinet and are against the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP)’s nationalist-secularist ideology. Moreover, the 212 network currently has no cause to champion and is experiencing a generational shift of charismatic clerics, making it a weaker movement compared to the one in 2017.

    Momentum and Opportunities

    A couple months ago, Anies’s idea of proposing change perhaps gained little traction among Indonesians. However, the recent Constitutional Court saga and Jokowi’s political dynasty have provided a small window of momentum for Anies.

    Anies may gain additional momentum if he can take advantage of economic populist issues, notably the widening income inequality, and double down on his platform as a progressive technocratic reformer. Regardless of the outcome, Anies’s participation in the 2024 presidential election can solidify his voter base, which will come in handy for his future political endeavours.

     

    Irman G. LANTI and Adhi PRIAMARIZKI are Visiting Senior Fellow and Research Fellow respectively at the Indonesia Programme, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University.

    Categories: IDSS Papers / General / Country and Region Studies / Southeast Asia and ASEAN


    There has been significant doubt over Anies Baswedan’s electability in the 2024 presidential election. However, surveys on Anies’s electability in the past two months indicated a slight but steady rise. IRMAN G. LANTI and ADHI PRIAMARIZKI discuss Anies’s presidential campaign strategy, its challenges, and opportunities.

       

     

     

    COMMENTARY

    After languishing in the polls as a distant third all year round, ex-Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan’s bid for the Indonesian presidency has caught a second wind among growing concerns about political dynasties and potential election interference by the incumbent president. Protest voters frustrated with the Indonesian political scene has started to flock to Anies, who is now in good position to compete with former Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo for second place. Having campaigned as an opposition candidate from the very beginning, Anies is better positioned than Ganjar to fly the opposition flag.

    Who is Anies Baswedan and how is he positioning his candidacy to expand his supporter base? How can he strengthen his electability moving into the official campaign season? These questions will be addressed in this piece.

    IP23086
    Indonesian presidential candidate Anies Baswedan’s popularity has been picking up in the latest polls for the 2024 presidential election. However, Anies still has a lot to do to increase his electability. Image by author.

    Anies: A Reluctant Religious Conservative

    Anies hails from a family of Muslim political activists. His grandfather, A. R. Baswedan, founded the Indonesian Arab Party and later joined Masyumi, a modernist Islamic party, in the 1950s. A student activist during his university years in Gajah Mada, Anies was part of the Islamic Student Union (HMI). Subsequently, he pursued further studies in the United States and developed an affinity for progressive issues such as democracy, pluralism, and gender equality.

    After returning to Indonesia, Anies became Indonesia’s youngest rector at the University of Paramadina, established by Nurcholish Madjid, a prominent progressive Islamic thinker in Indonesia. During his time at Paramadina, he pioneered the “Teach Indonesia” movement, funding young university students for one-year stints in remote regions to serve the local community as teachers. These progressive and reformist credentials led him to eventually join Jokowi’s first election campaign in 2014 as campaign spokesperson and subsequently as education minister.

    However, his track record as a progressive academic has been marred by the political compromises he made to win the 2017 Jakarta gubernatorial election. Anies saw an opportunity to exploit identity politics against incumbent Governor Ahok, a Chinese Christian, to gain the support of conservative Islamic groups. Although Anies later tried to govern Jakarta in an inclusive manner, his main constituents (progressive, minority, and educated voters) remained deeply ambivalent about how he came to power in 2017.

    Anies’s Coalition: Overcoming Strange Bedfellows

    Anies is supported by a three-party coalition consisting of the Nasdem (National Democrat) Party, the modernist Islamic party PKS (Partai Keadilan Sejahtera – Justice Prosperous Party), and the traditionalist Muslim party PKB (Partai Kebangkitan Bangsa – National Awakening Party). The latest survey results show that Anies is polling behind Prabowo in key provinces with large numbers of modernist and conservative Muslims (Banten, West Java, and West Sumatra). Anies is only doing well in Jakarta.

    This circumstance requires Anies’s coalition parties, notably PKB and PKS, to maximise their political machinery to improve the former Jakarta governor’s chance of winning the presidential race. In East Java, a province where PKB dominates, Anies is trailing behind the other candidates. There is no clear sign that Anies is attractive to the traditionalist Muslims in the province. Additionally, the inclusion of Mahfud MD, a native of Madura, as Ganjar Pranowo’s vice-presidential candidate has toughened the East Java battleground.

    Despite the bleak progress, PKB can still overcome the situation by maximising the contribution of its cadre and key figures. Indikator’s November survey indicated that PKB votes are the most fragmented in comparison to PKS and Nasdem in supporting their presidential candidate pair. Thus, internal consolidation, including the party’s influence over local Islamic boarding schools, will be key for PKB to maximise its political machinery.

    Unlike PKB, PKS has been showing a relatively united front in supporting Anies’s candidacy. Nonetheless, PKS does not possess superb electoral dominance. While PKS dominates in the urban areas of West Java and West Sumatera, and owns significant vote share in Jakarta, it is not enough to single-handedly rule them.

    On the other hand, the possibility of securing a larger Muslim vote share from the alliance of PKB and PKS remains to be seen. However, these two parties can help secure some Muslim segments that are closely associated with each of them. PKS and PKB were also in the same team back in the 2009 presidential election, when they supported President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s re-election.

    Preserving the Right, Capturing the Middle

    Anies’s coalition seems to believe that for him to win enough votes to head to the runoff election, he needs to consolidate support not just from his Islamist base and voters who disapprove of Jokowi’s government (~20-25% of voters) but also from those who like his technocratic track record and progressive ideas.

    However, Anies has established a reputation of being involved with the far right of the Islamic spectrum primarily during his campaign in the 2017 Jakarta gubernatorial election. Thus, capturing the middle voters will be beneficial in increasing his electability. His quest to gain the middle ground is reflected in the way he supported religious and ethnic minorities’ activities during his time as governor of Jakarta.

    He also attempts to portray himself as the face of an educated and modern Indonesian, which contradicts Jokowi’s image of an ordinary person (orang biasa). Another interesting point is Anies’s liberal idea of global citizenship during his foreign policy speech at a seminar conducted by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Indonesia. Furthermore, he has been highlighting the current administration’s failure in ensuring inclusive economic development.

    In addition to his attempt to capture the middle, Anies also entertains his conservative Islamic sympathisers. Recently, two Islamic hardliner groups, 212 Alumni Association (PA 212) and National Cleric’s Fatwa Defender Movement (GNPF Ulama), convened the ijtima ulama (cleric congregation) and declared support for the Anies-Muhaiman pair. The event hinted at continued relations between Anies and those hardliners. It is implicitly acknowledged that these hardliners have nowhere to go but Anies’s camp, as they labelled Prabowo a traitor when he joined Jokowi’s cabinet and are against the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP)’s nationalist-secularist ideology. Moreover, the 212 network currently has no cause to champion and is experiencing a generational shift of charismatic clerics, making it a weaker movement compared to the one in 2017.

    Momentum and Opportunities

    A couple months ago, Anies’s idea of proposing change perhaps gained little traction among Indonesians. However, the recent Constitutional Court saga and Jokowi’s political dynasty have provided a small window of momentum for Anies.

    Anies may gain additional momentum if he can take advantage of economic populist issues, notably the widening income inequality, and double down on his platform as a progressive technocratic reformer. Regardless of the outcome, Anies’s participation in the 2024 presidential election can solidify his voter base, which will come in handy for his future political endeavours.

     

    Irman G. LANTI and Adhi PRIAMARIZKI are Visiting Senior Fellow and Research Fellow respectively at the Indonesia Programme, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University.

    Categories: IDSS Papers / General / Country and Region Studies

    Popular Links

    About RSISResearch ProgrammesGraduate EducationPublicationsEventsAdmissionsCareersVideo/Audio ChannelRSIS Intranet

    Connect with Us

    rsis.ntu
    rsis_ntu
    rsisntu
    rsisvideocast
    school/rsis-ntu
    rsis.sg
    rsissg
    RSIS
    RSS
    Subscribe to RSIS Publications
    Subscribe to RSIS Events

    Getting to RSIS

    Nanyang Technological University
    Block S4, Level B3,
    50 Nanyang Avenue,
    Singapore 639798

    Click here for direction to RSIS

    Get in Touch

      Copyright © S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. All rights reserved.
      Privacy Statement / Terms of Use
      Help us improve

        Rate your experience with this website
        123456
        Not satisfiedVery satisfied
        What did you like?
        0/255 characters
        What can be improved?
        0/255 characters
        Your email
        Please enter a valid email.
        Thank you for your feedback.
        This site uses cookies to offer you a better browsing experience. By continuing, you are agreeing to the use of cookies on your device as described in our privacy policy. Learn more
        OK
        Latest Book
        more info