23 January 2015
The Global Arms Industry in 2030 (and Beyond)
Introduction
The global arms industry is a dynamic phenomenon, a constantly moving target. It expands and contracts, it has phases of growth and prosperity and phases of crisis and decline, both on a historical and on a regional basis, and often the two are not in sync with each other. This makes sweeping generalisations about the current and future likely state of the global arms industry—and about the process of global armaments production in general—difficult. The 1990s were a period of relative downturn and contraction, while the first decade of the 21st century appeared to be one of stabilisation and growth. The question today is, will the global arms industry over the next 15 years resemble more the 1990s or the 2000s, or will it be something totally different? Will the expansion continue or is a contraction sure to follow, given the highly cyclical nature of this particular business sector? And in any event, bust or boom, how will the global arms industry evolve and transform, in terms of size, structure, ownership, etc.? How will such influences as dual-use technologies, globalisation, cyber, and the possible emergence of new major players affect the global arms industry?
With these thoughts in mind, the Military Transformations Programme within the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies hosted a one-day workshop on “The Global Arms Industry in 2030 (and Beyond),” held on 10 November 2014, in Singapore. The workshop brought together a diverse collection of expert analysts from Asia, North America, Europe and Australia to address the potential effects of various macro-economic and geopolitical drivers affecting the global arms industry out to 2030 and beyond, and to also explore how national defence industrial bases might—or might not—change over the course of the next 15 years or so.
The workshop was divided into two broad areas of exploration and discussion. The first section addressed several global factors that are affecting the arms industry, including the impact of dual-use technologies, globalisation, the impact of cyber-based technologies as a new form of “armaments,” and whether or not the development and production of nuclear weapons is a useful course of action. The second section comprised case studies of major arms-producing states or regions—such as the United States, Western Europe, Russia and China—and the potential rise of “new suppliers” with their potential impact on international arms trade.
Introduction
The global arms industry is a dynamic phenomenon, a constantly moving target. It expands and contracts, it has phases of growth and prosperity and phases of crisis and decline, both on a historical and on a regional basis, and often the two are not in sync with each other. This makes sweeping generalisations about the current and future likely state of the global arms industry—and about the process of global armaments production in general—difficult. The 1990s were a period of relative downturn and contraction, while the first decade of the 21st century appeared to be one of stabilisation and growth. The question today is, will the global arms industry over the next 15 years resemble more the 1990s or the 2000s, or will it be something totally different? Will the expansion continue or is a contraction sure to follow, given the highly cyclical nature of this particular business sector? And in any event, bust or boom, how will the global arms industry evolve and transform, in terms of size, structure, ownership, etc.? How will such influences as dual-use technologies, globalisation, cyber, and the possible emergence of new major players affect the global arms industry?
With these thoughts in mind, the Military Transformations Programme within the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies hosted a one-day workshop on “The Global Arms Industry in 2030 (and Beyond),” held on 10 November 2014, in Singapore. The workshop brought together a diverse collection of expert analysts from Asia, North America, Europe and Australia to address the potential effects of various macro-economic and geopolitical drivers affecting the global arms industry out to 2030 and beyond, and to also explore how national defence industrial bases might—or might not—change over the course of the next 15 years or so.
The workshop was divided into two broad areas of exploration and discussion. The first section addressed several global factors that are affecting the arms industry, including the impact of dual-use technologies, globalisation, the impact of cyber-based technologies as a new form of “armaments,” and whether or not the development and production of nuclear weapons is a useful course of action. The second section comprised case studies of major arms-producing states or regions—such as the United States, Western Europe, Russia and China—and the potential rise of “new suppliers” with their potential impact on international arms trade.
