Back
About RSIS
Introduction
Building the Foundations
Welcome Message
Board of Governors
Staff Profiles
Executive Deputy Chairman’s Office
Dean’s Office
Management
Distinguished Fellows
Faculty and Research
Associate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research Analysts
Visiting Fellows
Adjunct Fellows
Administrative Staff
Honours and Awards for RSIS Staff and Students
RSIS Endowment Fund
Endowed Professorships
Career Opportunities
Getting to RSIS
Research
Research Centres
Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)
Centre of Excellence for National Security
Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)
International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
Research Programmes
National Security Studies Programme (NSSP)
Social Cohesion Research Programme (SCRP)
Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
Other Research
Future Issues and Technology Cluster
Research@RSIS
Science and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
Graduate Education
Graduate Programmes Office
Exchange Partners and Programmes
How to Apply
Financial Assistance
Meet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other events
RSIS Alumni
Outreach
Global Networks
About Global Networks
RSIS Alumni
Executive Education
About Executive Education
SRP Executive Programme
Terrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
International Programmes
About International Programmes
Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)
Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)
International Conference on Cohesive Societies (ICCS)
International Strategy Forum-Asia (ISF-Asia)
Publications
RSIS Publications
Annual Reviews
Books
Bulletins and Newsletters
RSIS Commentary Series
Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
Commemorative / Event Reports
Future Issues
IDSS Papers
Interreligious Relations
Monographs
NTS Insight
Policy Reports
Working Papers
External Publications
Authored Books
Journal Articles
Edited Books
Chapters in Edited Books
Policy Reports
Working Papers
Op-Eds
Glossary of Abbreviations
Policy-relevant Articles Given RSIS Award
RSIS Publications for the Year
External Publications for the Year
Media
Cohesive Societies
Sustainable Security
Other Resource Pages
News Releases
Speeches
Video/Audio Channel
External Podcasts
Events
Contact Us
S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies Think Tank and Graduate School Ponder The Improbable Since 1966
Nanyang Technological University Nanyang Technological University
  • About RSIS
      IntroductionBuilding the FoundationsWelcome MessageBoard of GovernorsHonours and Awards for RSIS Staff and StudentsRSIS Endowment FundEndowed ProfessorshipsCareer OpportunitiesGetting to RSIS
      Staff ProfilesExecutive Deputy Chairman’s OfficeDean’s OfficeManagementDistinguished FellowsFaculty and ResearchAssociate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research AnalystsVisiting FellowsAdjunct FellowsAdministrative Staff
  • Research
      Research CentresCentre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)Centre of Excellence for National SecurityInstitute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
      Research ProgrammesNational Security Studies Programme (NSSP)Social Cohesion Research Programme (SCRP)Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
      Other ResearchFuture Issues and Technology ClusterResearch@RSISScience and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
  • Graduate Education
      Graduate Programmes OfficeExchange Partners and ProgrammesHow to ApplyFinancial AssistanceMeet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other eventsRSIS Alumni
  • Outreach
      Global NetworksAbout Global NetworksRSIS Alumni
      Executive EducationAbout Executive EducationSRP Executive ProgrammeTerrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
      International ProgrammesAbout International ProgrammesAsia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)International Conference on Cohesive Societies (ICCS)International Strategy Forum-Asia (ISF-Asia)
  • Publications
      RSIS PublicationsAnnual ReviewsBooksBulletins and NewslettersRSIS Commentary SeriesCounter Terrorist Trends and AnalysesCommemorative / Event ReportsFuture IssuesIDSS PapersInterreligious RelationsMonographsNTS InsightPolicy ReportsWorking Papers
      External PublicationsAuthored BooksJournal ArticlesEdited BooksChapters in Edited BooksPolicy ReportsWorking PapersOp-Eds
      Glossary of AbbreviationsPolicy-relevant Articles Given RSIS AwardRSIS Publications for the YearExternal Publications for the Year
  • Media
      Cohesive SocietiesSustainable SecurityOther Resource PagesNews ReleasesSpeechesVideo/Audio ChannelExternal Podcasts
  • Events
  • Contact Us
    • Connect with Us

      rsis.ntu
      rsis_ntu
      rsisntu
      rsisvideocast
      school/rsis-ntu
      rsis.sg
      rsissg
      RSIS
      RSS
      Subscribe to RSIS Publications
      Subscribe to RSIS Events

      Getting to RSIS

      Nanyang Technological University
      Block S4, Level B3,
      50 Nanyang Avenue,
      Singapore 639798

      Click here for direction to RSIS

      Get in Touch

    Connect
    Search
    • RSIS
    • Publication
    • RSIS Publications
    • CO10032 | Thai Balance of Power: Pi Ta Khon, Spirit Houses, and Political Nerve
    • Annual Reviews
    • Books
    • Bulletins and Newsletters
    • RSIS Commentary Series
    • Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
    • Commemorative / Event Reports
    • Future Issues
    • IDSS Papers
    • Interreligious Relations
    • Monographs
    • NTS Insight
    • Policy Reports
    • Working Papers

    CO10032 | Thai Balance of Power: Pi Ta Khon, Spirit Houses, and Political Nerve
    Antonio L Rappa

    15 March 2010

    download pdf

    Commentary

    The Abhisit government continues to hold sway despite the haunting by Thaksin’s Red Shirts. Both camps are wrestling for power although Abhisit appears to hold the upper hand. Will the masses be able to tilt this delicate balance of power?

    THE THAI GHOST FESTIVAL or Pi Ta Khon is rooted in Isan culture but celebrated throughout Thailand before and after the Songkran. Pi Ta Khon participants wear red masks and play loud music that can wake the dead.

    However, the Red Shirts want to resurrect Thaksin Shinawatra and eagerly await his return. Since he was deposed by a bloodless coup in 2006, Thaksin has had his foreign assets frozen, become divorced, convicted for graft, and had his money divided in two unequal halves. He has also been named “an honorary citizen” of Cambodia, bought and sold an English football club, and remains in self-imposed exile in Dubai. Why does Thaksin remain a critical player in the political balance of power, and why do hundreds of thousands willingly protest on his behalf?

    Moral authority

    Protesting in Thailand is a means of showing dissatisfaction. The people never assemble to show love, except for their king. They rally against prime ministers appointed by fiat. While the current prime minister possesses moral authority, his majesty, the king, is full of it. Thai people adore their king despite the presence of punitive lèse majesté laws. Nevertheless, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva is supported by the army, the Bangkok economic elite, and the Privy Council. Therefore, the longer Abhisit retains power, the weaker Thaksin becomes.

    Several factors keep Thaksin airborne. First, Abhisit will be deposed if the Thai economy comes to a halt for more than a month. Second, the military may stage another coup if Abhisit loses political nerve. Thirdly, if the king withdraws his support for the government, there will be radical political change.

    The military has a mind of its own. Generals come and go like last year’s rice harvest. Once the generals get wind of royal disaffection, they will take flight. One colonel I interviewed recently said that it is better not to be a general until the political situation is clear.

    Rural Power Bases

    What can Abhisit do to remain in power? War with Cambodia will incur the wrath of the Vietnamese, the Chinese and of course, the redoubtable rhetoric of ASEAN. War with Myanmar will make Thaksin a hero. A full scale military operation in Yala, Narathiwat and Pattani will worsen the insurgency. Abhisit would do well to retain the support of the king, the army and the economic elite.

    However, Thaksin has massive support in the rural areas. The peasants have not forgotten his genuine help as prime minister. Sunday’s planned protest organised by Jatuporn Promphan comes with a warning to Deputy Prime Minister (DPM) Suthep Thuagsuban. The DPM has to “find a new home” if the Internal Security Act is invoked against the rural masses.

    Balance of Power

    Civil disobedience by Thaksin’s ghost warriors will not disappear overnight. If Abhisit is not careful, the balance of political power will shift in favour of Thaksin. Abhisit has one foot in the grave and the other on a slippery Thai mango skin. One wrong move will plunge the Oxford-educated leader into the cemetery of political history. History has not been kind to Thai prime ministers who ignore the writing on the wall.

    Internal squabbles among Abhisit’s army generals are an indication of internal dissent. In late January 2010, Major General Khattiya Sawasdipol, popularly known as Seh Daeng, was suspended and charged for illegal possession of weapons in an alleged plan to attack Army HQ. An armoury of an Engineer Brigade was looted. Over 3,000 rounds of ammunition and small arms were stolen from an area under the command of the 4th Army Region. Bombings occur across Bangkok itself. When I lived near the government quarter of the city last year, a bomb explosion ripped off the arm of an army staff sergeant in a bloody mess just outside my house.

    In a city of 11 million people, the government estimates that 100,000 people will protest soon. The protest leaders predict over 500,000 will change the course of Thai politics. Angry rice farmers will protest because of the falling rice prices. An Ayutthaya Farmers’ Association representative Kwanchai Mahachuenjai says that they will have their own protests. There are also close to 20,000 unhappy Buddhist monks who are known to have a multiplier effect on public protests in this predominantly Buddhist nation.

    Spirit Houses

    Pi Ta Kon participants often wear red to strike fear in their enemies. If Abhisit cannot overcome the Red Shirt onslaught, he will lose political power, and there will be another military coup. Thaksin will only return to the country if the army openly supports him and the relatively neutral courts allow him a fair trial. The other possibility is that the security forces will adequately manage the mass protests but not without incident.

    Thai people construct ornate “spirit houses” in their front yards where ghosts can live. This is to prevent spirits from bothering their residents. The problem today is that the owners of Thailand have neglected their spirit houses. And the ghosts have nowhere to live. Much depends on whether Abhisit is superstitious and if his lieutenants are afraid of ghosts. The outcome of the protests will, in the end, be a test of political nerve.

    About the Author

    Antonio L. Rappa is Senior Fellow with the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University. He is also Deputy Head, Management and Security Studies, SIM University. 

    Categories: RSIS Commentary Series / Southeast Asia and ASEAN

    Commentary

    The Abhisit government continues to hold sway despite the haunting by Thaksin’s Red Shirts. Both camps are wrestling for power although Abhisit appears to hold the upper hand. Will the masses be able to tilt this delicate balance of power?

    THE THAI GHOST FESTIVAL or Pi Ta Khon is rooted in Isan culture but celebrated throughout Thailand before and after the Songkran. Pi Ta Khon participants wear red masks and play loud music that can wake the dead.

    However, the Red Shirts want to resurrect Thaksin Shinawatra and eagerly await his return. Since he was deposed by a bloodless coup in 2006, Thaksin has had his foreign assets frozen, become divorced, convicted for graft, and had his money divided in two unequal halves. He has also been named “an honorary citizen” of Cambodia, bought and sold an English football club, and remains in self-imposed exile in Dubai. Why does Thaksin remain a critical player in the political balance of power, and why do hundreds of thousands willingly protest on his behalf?

    Moral authority

    Protesting in Thailand is a means of showing dissatisfaction. The people never assemble to show love, except for their king. They rally against prime ministers appointed by fiat. While the current prime minister possesses moral authority, his majesty, the king, is full of it. Thai people adore their king despite the presence of punitive lèse majesté laws. Nevertheless, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva is supported by the army, the Bangkok economic elite, and the Privy Council. Therefore, the longer Abhisit retains power, the weaker Thaksin becomes.

    Several factors keep Thaksin airborne. First, Abhisit will be deposed if the Thai economy comes to a halt for more than a month. Second, the military may stage another coup if Abhisit loses political nerve. Thirdly, if the king withdraws his support for the government, there will be radical political change.

    The military has a mind of its own. Generals come and go like last year’s rice harvest. Once the generals get wind of royal disaffection, they will take flight. One colonel I interviewed recently said that it is better not to be a general until the political situation is clear.

    Rural Power Bases

    What can Abhisit do to remain in power? War with Cambodia will incur the wrath of the Vietnamese, the Chinese and of course, the redoubtable rhetoric of ASEAN. War with Myanmar will make Thaksin a hero. A full scale military operation in Yala, Narathiwat and Pattani will worsen the insurgency. Abhisit would do well to retain the support of the king, the army and the economic elite.

    However, Thaksin has massive support in the rural areas. The peasants have not forgotten his genuine help as prime minister. Sunday’s planned protest organised by Jatuporn Promphan comes with a warning to Deputy Prime Minister (DPM) Suthep Thuagsuban. The DPM has to “find a new home” if the Internal Security Act is invoked against the rural masses.

    Balance of Power

    Civil disobedience by Thaksin’s ghost warriors will not disappear overnight. If Abhisit is not careful, the balance of political power will shift in favour of Thaksin. Abhisit has one foot in the grave and the other on a slippery Thai mango skin. One wrong move will plunge the Oxford-educated leader into the cemetery of political history. History has not been kind to Thai prime ministers who ignore the writing on the wall.

    Internal squabbles among Abhisit’s army generals are an indication of internal dissent. In late January 2010, Major General Khattiya Sawasdipol, popularly known as Seh Daeng, was suspended and charged for illegal possession of weapons in an alleged plan to attack Army HQ. An armoury of an Engineer Brigade was looted. Over 3,000 rounds of ammunition and small arms were stolen from an area under the command of the 4th Army Region. Bombings occur across Bangkok itself. When I lived near the government quarter of the city last year, a bomb explosion ripped off the arm of an army staff sergeant in a bloody mess just outside my house.

    In a city of 11 million people, the government estimates that 100,000 people will protest soon. The protest leaders predict over 500,000 will change the course of Thai politics. Angry rice farmers will protest because of the falling rice prices. An Ayutthaya Farmers’ Association representative Kwanchai Mahachuenjai says that they will have their own protests. There are also close to 20,000 unhappy Buddhist monks who are known to have a multiplier effect on public protests in this predominantly Buddhist nation.

    Spirit Houses

    Pi Ta Kon participants often wear red to strike fear in their enemies. If Abhisit cannot overcome the Red Shirt onslaught, he will lose political power, and there will be another military coup. Thaksin will only return to the country if the army openly supports him and the relatively neutral courts allow him a fair trial. The other possibility is that the security forces will adequately manage the mass protests but not without incident.

    Thai people construct ornate “spirit houses” in their front yards where ghosts can live. This is to prevent spirits from bothering their residents. The problem today is that the owners of Thailand have neglected their spirit houses. And the ghosts have nowhere to live. Much depends on whether Abhisit is superstitious and if his lieutenants are afraid of ghosts. The outcome of the protests will, in the end, be a test of political nerve.

    About the Author

    Antonio L. Rappa is Senior Fellow with the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University. He is also Deputy Head, Management and Security Studies, SIM University. 

    Categories: RSIS Commentary Series

    Popular Links

    About RSISResearch ProgrammesGraduate EducationPublicationsEventsAdmissionsCareersVideo/Audio ChannelRSIS Intranet

    Connect with Us

    rsis.ntu
    rsis_ntu
    rsisntu
    rsisvideocast
    school/rsis-ntu
    rsis.sg
    rsissg
    RSIS
    RSS
    Subscribe to RSIS Publications
    Subscribe to RSIS Events

    Getting to RSIS

    Nanyang Technological University
    Block S4, Level B3,
    50 Nanyang Avenue,
    Singapore 639798

    Click here for direction to RSIS

    Get in Touch

      Copyright © S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. All rights reserved.
      Privacy Statement / Terms of Use
      Help us improve

        Rate your experience with this website
        123456
        Not satisfiedVery satisfied
        What did you like?
        0/255 characters
        What can be improved?
        0/255 characters
        Your email
        Please enter a valid email.
        Thank you for your feedback.
        This site uses cookies to offer you a better browsing experience. By continuing, you are agreeing to the use of cookies on your device as described in our privacy policy. Learn more
        OK
        Latest Book
        more info