Back
About RSIS
Introduction
Building the Foundations
Welcome Message
Board of Governors
Staff Profiles
Executive Deputy Chairman’s Office
Dean’s Office
Management
Distinguished Fellows
Faculty and Research
Associate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research Analysts
Visiting Fellows
Adjunct Fellows
Administrative Staff
Honours and Awards for RSIS Staff and Students
RSIS Endowment Fund
Endowed Professorships
Career Opportunities
Getting to RSIS
Research
Research Centres
Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)
Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS)
Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)
International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
Research Programmes
National Security Studies Programme (NSSP)
Social Cohesion Research Programme (SCRP)
Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
Other Research
Future Issues and Technology Cluster
Research@RSIS
Science and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
Graduate Education
Graduate Programmes Office
Exchange Partners and Programmes
How to Apply
Financial Assistance
Meet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other events
RSIS Alumni
Outreach
Global Networks
About Global Networks
RSIS Alumni
International Programmes
About International Programmes
Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)
Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)
International Conference on Cohesive Societies (ICCS)
International Strategy Forum-Asia (ISF-Asia)
Executive Education
About Executive Education
SRP Executive Programme
Terrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
Public Education
About Public Education
Publications
RSIS Publications
Annual Reviews
Books
Bulletins and Newsletters
RSIS Commentary Series
Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
Commemorative / Event Reports
Future Issues
IDSS Papers
Interreligious Relations
Monographs
NTS Insight
Policy Reports
Working Papers
External Publications
Authored Books
Journal Articles
Edited Books
Chapters in Edited Books
Policy Reports
Working Papers
Op-Eds
Glossary of Abbreviations
Policy-relevant Articles Given RSIS Award
RSIS Publications for the Year
External Publications for the Year
Media
News Releases
Speeches
Video/Audio Channel
Events
Contact Us
S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies Think Tank and Graduate School Ponder The Improbable Since 1966
Nanyang Technological University Nanyang Technological University
  • About RSIS
      IntroductionBuilding the FoundationsWelcome MessageBoard of GovernorsHonours and Awards for RSIS Staff and StudentsRSIS Endowment FundEndowed ProfessorshipsCareer OpportunitiesGetting to RSIS
      Staff ProfilesExecutive Deputy Chairman’s OfficeDean’s OfficeManagementDistinguished FellowsFaculty and ResearchAssociate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research AnalystsVisiting FellowsAdjunct FellowsAdministrative Staff
  • Research
      Research CentresCentre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS)Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
      Research ProgrammesNational Security Studies Programme (NSSP)Social Cohesion Research Programme (SCRP)Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
      Other ResearchFuture Issues and Technology ClusterResearch@RSISScience and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
  • Graduate Education
      Graduate Programmes OfficeExchange Partners and ProgrammesHow to ApplyFinancial AssistanceMeet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other eventsRSIS Alumni
  • Outreach
      Global NetworksAbout Global NetworksRSIS Alumni
      International ProgrammesAbout International ProgrammesAsia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)International Conference on Cohesive Societies (ICCS)International Strategy Forum-Asia (ISF-Asia)
      Executive EducationAbout Executive EducationSRP Executive ProgrammeTerrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
      Public EducationAbout Public Education
  • Publications
      RSIS PublicationsAnnual ReviewsBooksBulletins and NewslettersRSIS Commentary SeriesCounter Terrorist Trends and AnalysesCommemorative / Event ReportsFuture IssuesIDSS PapersInterreligious RelationsMonographsNTS InsightPolicy ReportsWorking Papers
      External PublicationsAuthored BooksJournal ArticlesEdited BooksChapters in Edited BooksPolicy ReportsWorking PapersOp-Eds
      Glossary of AbbreviationsPolicy-relevant Articles Given RSIS AwardRSIS Publications for the YearExternal Publications for the Year
  • Media
      News ReleasesSpeechesVideo/Audio Channel
  • Events
  • Contact Us
    • Connect with Us

      rsis.ntu
      rsis_ntu
      rsisntu
      rsisvideocast
      school/rsis-ntu
      rsis.sg
      rsissg
      RSIS
      RSS
      Subscribe to RSIS Publications
      Subscribe to RSIS Events

      Getting to RSIS

      Nanyang Technological University
      Block S4, Level B3,
      50 Nanyang Avenue,
      Singapore 639798

      Click here for direction to RSIS
Connect
Search
  • RSIS
  • Publication
  • RSIS Publications
  • CO11107 | ARF at 18: Crisis of Confidence or Oasis of Opportunity?
  • Annual Reviews
  • Books
  • Bulletins and Newsletters
  • RSIS Commentary Series
  • Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
  • Commemorative / Event Reports
  • Future Issues
  • IDSS Papers
  • Interreligious Relations
  • Monographs
  • NTS Insight
  • Policy Reports
  • Working Papers

CO11107 | ARF at 18: Crisis of Confidence or Oasis of Opportunity?
Benjamin Ho

19 July 2011

download pdf

Synopsis

The upcoming 18th ASEAN Regional Forum in Bali will once again provide the international platform for member countries to engage on security issues. Recent events have highlighted the difficulties in reconciling core differences.

Commentary

A CRISIS of confidence or an oasis of opportunity? This is the question that will engage the minds of those attending the upcoming 18th ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) to be held in Bali, Indonesia on 23 July 2011. Over the years, the ARF has seen its fair share of polarising opinions among government leaders and political analysts. Some have lauded the forum as a platform where political opinions can be robustly debated and defended; others have decried the meetings as simply yet another dialogue process with little constructive outcome to show for it.

Such ambivalence towards the role of multilateral forums like the ARF is not entirely unfounded, considering the historical circumstances surrounding the relationships between member nations and the varied interests – political or economic – that states are wont to maintain.

Difficulty in Reconciling Core Interests

The ongoing territorial dispute between China and various ASEAN countries in the South China Sea is a case in point. It highlights the difficulty at arriving at a consensus when core interests — in this case, territorial sovereignty — are involved. Such territorial claims, framed within the assumption that what is at stake is ultimately economic interest, makes it difficult for member countries to negotiate, much less agree with each other. Indeed if the 3.5 million square metres of the South China Sea are viewed as an economic pie that is being geographically defined, then policies which assume a zero-sum-game are certainly not surprising as states aim to get ahead at the expense of others.

Such an approach however, would necessarily lead to greater mistrust and suspicion among involved countries. What is needed instead are confidence-building measures among member states that go beyond the simple promise that regional cooperation would lead to economic benefits. This is not to downplay the importance of economic factors in international politics; rather, it is a challenge for Asia-Pacific countries to look beyond dollars and cents in their decision-making. Indeed, various commentators have challenged the arguments which focus primarily on economic reasons justifying regional cooperation. Their evidence suggests that economic factors in many instances have been less important in regionalism than states’ use of economic instruments to pursue political objectives.

CBMs: More Than Just Economics

Several confidence-building measures (CBMs) are needed then, if Asia-Pacific regionalism is to move beyond the limits of purely economic factors:

Firstly, the ARF needs to develop greater capacity for decision making, in particular among those involved in track two negotiations. Businesses, non-government organisations and financial institutions ought to be given some measure of autonomy from the state in their decision-making in relation to their own stated interests. At present, much of track two discussions are fronted by two distinct region-wide networks of think tanks — ASEAN-ISIS and CSCAP (ASEAN Institutes of Strategic and International Studies and Council for Security and Cooperation in Asia Pacific). More can be done to allow members of these organisations to engage in greater free-flowing and open discussions.

In a concept paper published following the 12th ARF held in 2005, it was proposed that the chairs of the respective organisations be given the opportunity to present written reports at the Inter-Sessional Support Group (ISG) meeting. However, the same report highlighted that the ISG co-chairs would “make every effort to ensure that Track II invitees do not raise sensitive issues”. Such limitations are not helpful to the overall conduct of multilateral discussions as substantial issues continue to remain untouched.

Secondly, greater flexibility needs to be accorded to the practice of ARF diplomacy, especially in fields that seem to be the proprietary right of states. For instance, military and security challenges are viewed as diplomatic issues which require formal government intervention. This approach is flawed as it fails to recognise the wide range of diplomatic tools that can be otherwise used.

The ARF has also been criticised by scholars as evolving into a highly formal and inflexible forum, which runs counter to the spirit (of informality) envisaged for the forum. Furthermore, the fact that consultative approaches – instead of military methods – remain the preferred means whereby Asian countries resolve their disagreements suggests that the solutions to some of the existing diplomatic problems may lie less with institutions and more with concerned personalities.

Thirdly, greater cultural capital needs to be cultivated among ARF member nations. Indeed, if the ARF is meant to function as a confidence-building platform whereby dialogue and socialisation are emphasised, then member nations need to be sensitive to the various historical-social-cultural factors behind the decisions of their neighbours. For instance, the fact that East Asia was viewed as a bulwark against Soviet communism in the United States’ containment strategy formulated in the aftermath of World War II helps one understand the multifaceted support that states in the region received from the US economically and militarily. Likewise, China’s seemingly assertive approach ought to be understood from the vantage point of its claim to be the Middle Kingdom (of the world) and its history of being colonised by Western powers.

Such confidence-building measures then, are not an academic exercise nor should they be dismissed as topics for leisurely conversation. As an old Chinese maxim goes, any big historical event is always made possible by three conditions — heavenly timing, geographic advantages and human harmony. If the rise of Asia proves to be more than a political cliché, then much of how this rise is being conducted will depend on how its members decide to live with each other.

About the Author

Benjamin Ho Tze Ern is an Associate Research Fellow in the Centre for Multilateralism Studies at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University. 

Categories: RSIS Commentary Series / International Politics and Security / Regionalism and Multilateralism / East Asia and Asia Pacific / Southeast Asia and ASEAN

Synopsis

The upcoming 18th ASEAN Regional Forum in Bali will once again provide the international platform for member countries to engage on security issues. Recent events have highlighted the difficulties in reconciling core differences.

Commentary

A CRISIS of confidence or an oasis of opportunity? This is the question that will engage the minds of those attending the upcoming 18th ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) to be held in Bali, Indonesia on 23 July 2011. Over the years, the ARF has seen its fair share of polarising opinions among government leaders and political analysts. Some have lauded the forum as a platform where political opinions can be robustly debated and defended; others have decried the meetings as simply yet another dialogue process with little constructive outcome to show for it.

Such ambivalence towards the role of multilateral forums like the ARF is not entirely unfounded, considering the historical circumstances surrounding the relationships between member nations and the varied interests – political or economic – that states are wont to maintain.

Difficulty in Reconciling Core Interests

The ongoing territorial dispute between China and various ASEAN countries in the South China Sea is a case in point. It highlights the difficulty at arriving at a consensus when core interests — in this case, territorial sovereignty — are involved. Such territorial claims, framed within the assumption that what is at stake is ultimately economic interest, makes it difficult for member countries to negotiate, much less agree with each other. Indeed if the 3.5 million square metres of the South China Sea are viewed as an economic pie that is being geographically defined, then policies which assume a zero-sum-game are certainly not surprising as states aim to get ahead at the expense of others.

Such an approach however, would necessarily lead to greater mistrust and suspicion among involved countries. What is needed instead are confidence-building measures among member states that go beyond the simple promise that regional cooperation would lead to economic benefits. This is not to downplay the importance of economic factors in international politics; rather, it is a challenge for Asia-Pacific countries to look beyond dollars and cents in their decision-making. Indeed, various commentators have challenged the arguments which focus primarily on economic reasons justifying regional cooperation. Their evidence suggests that economic factors in many instances have been less important in regionalism than states’ use of economic instruments to pursue political objectives.

CBMs: More Than Just Economics

Several confidence-building measures (CBMs) are needed then, if Asia-Pacific regionalism is to move beyond the limits of purely economic factors:

Firstly, the ARF needs to develop greater capacity for decision making, in particular among those involved in track two negotiations. Businesses, non-government organisations and financial institutions ought to be given some measure of autonomy from the state in their decision-making in relation to their own stated interests. At present, much of track two discussions are fronted by two distinct region-wide networks of think tanks — ASEAN-ISIS and CSCAP (ASEAN Institutes of Strategic and International Studies and Council for Security and Cooperation in Asia Pacific). More can be done to allow members of these organisations to engage in greater free-flowing and open discussions.

In a concept paper published following the 12th ARF held in 2005, it was proposed that the chairs of the respective organisations be given the opportunity to present written reports at the Inter-Sessional Support Group (ISG) meeting. However, the same report highlighted that the ISG co-chairs would “make every effort to ensure that Track II invitees do not raise sensitive issues”. Such limitations are not helpful to the overall conduct of multilateral discussions as substantial issues continue to remain untouched.

Secondly, greater flexibility needs to be accorded to the practice of ARF diplomacy, especially in fields that seem to be the proprietary right of states. For instance, military and security challenges are viewed as diplomatic issues which require formal government intervention. This approach is flawed as it fails to recognise the wide range of diplomatic tools that can be otherwise used.

The ARF has also been criticised by scholars as evolving into a highly formal and inflexible forum, which runs counter to the spirit (of informality) envisaged for the forum. Furthermore, the fact that consultative approaches – instead of military methods – remain the preferred means whereby Asian countries resolve their disagreements suggests that the solutions to some of the existing diplomatic problems may lie less with institutions and more with concerned personalities.

Thirdly, greater cultural capital needs to be cultivated among ARF member nations. Indeed, if the ARF is meant to function as a confidence-building platform whereby dialogue and socialisation are emphasised, then member nations need to be sensitive to the various historical-social-cultural factors behind the decisions of their neighbours. For instance, the fact that East Asia was viewed as a bulwark against Soviet communism in the United States’ containment strategy formulated in the aftermath of World War II helps one understand the multifaceted support that states in the region received from the US economically and militarily. Likewise, China’s seemingly assertive approach ought to be understood from the vantage point of its claim to be the Middle Kingdom (of the world) and its history of being colonised by Western powers.

Such confidence-building measures then, are not an academic exercise nor should they be dismissed as topics for leisurely conversation. As an old Chinese maxim goes, any big historical event is always made possible by three conditions — heavenly timing, geographic advantages and human harmony. If the rise of Asia proves to be more than a political cliché, then much of how this rise is being conducted will depend on how its members decide to live with each other.

About the Author

Benjamin Ho Tze Ern is an Associate Research Fellow in the Centre for Multilateralism Studies at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University. 

Categories: RSIS Commentary Series / International Politics and Security / Regionalism and Multilateralism

Popular Links

About RSISResearch ProgrammesGraduate EducationPublicationsEventsAdmissionsCareersVideo/Audio ChannelRSIS Intranet

Connect with Us

rsis.ntu
rsis_ntu
rsisntu
rsisvideocast
school/rsis-ntu
rsis.sg
rsissg
RSIS
RSS
Subscribe to RSIS Publications
Subscribe to RSIS Events

Getting to RSIS

Nanyang Technological University
Block S4, Level B3,
50 Nanyang Avenue,
Singapore 639798

Click here for direction to RSIS

Get in Touch

    Copyright © S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. All rights reserved.
    Privacy Statement / Terms of Use
    Help us improve

      Rate your experience with this website
      123456
      Not satisfiedVery satisfied
      What did you like?
      0/255 characters
      What can be improved?
      0/255 characters
      Your email
      Please enter a valid email.
      Thank you for your feedback.
      This site uses cookies to offer you a better browsing experience. By continuing, you are agreeing to the use of cookies on your device as described in our privacy policy. Learn more
      OK
      Latest Book
      more info