Back
About RSIS
Introduction
Building the Foundations
Welcome Message
Board of Governors
Staff Profiles
Executive Deputy Chairman’s Office
Dean’s Office
Management
Distinguished Fellows
Faculty and Research
Associate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research Analysts
Visiting Fellows
Adjunct Fellows
Administrative Staff
Honours and Awards for RSIS Staff and Students
RSIS Endowment Fund
Endowed Professorships
Career Opportunities
Getting to RSIS
Research
Research Centres
Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)
Centre of Excellence for National Security
Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)
International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
Research Programmes
National Security Studies Programme (NSSP)
Social Cohesion Research Programme (SCRP)
Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
Other Research
Future Issues and Technology Cluster
Research@RSIS
Science and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
Graduate Education
Graduate Programmes Office
Exchange Partners and Programmes
How to Apply
Financial Assistance
Meet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other events
RSIS Alumni
Outreach
Global Networks
About Global Networks
RSIS Alumni
Executive Education
About Executive Education
SRP Executive Programme
Terrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
International Programmes
About International Programmes
Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)
Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)
International Conference on Cohesive Societies (ICCS)
International Strategy Forum-Asia (ISF-Asia)
Publications
RSIS Publications
Annual Reviews
Books
Bulletins and Newsletters
RSIS Commentary Series
Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
Commemorative / Event Reports
Future Issues
IDSS Papers
Interreligious Relations
Monographs
NTS Insight
Policy Reports
Working Papers
External Publications
Authored Books
Journal Articles
Edited Books
Chapters in Edited Books
Policy Reports
Working Papers
Op-Eds
Glossary of Abbreviations
Policy-relevant Articles Given RSIS Award
RSIS Publications for the Year
External Publications for the Year
Media
Cohesive Societies
Sustainable Security
Other Resource Pages
News Releases
Speeches
Video/Audio Channel
External Podcasts
Events
Contact Us
S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies Think Tank and Graduate School Ponder The Improbable Since 1966
Nanyang Technological University Nanyang Technological University
  • About RSIS
      IntroductionBuilding the FoundationsWelcome MessageBoard of GovernorsHonours and Awards for RSIS Staff and StudentsRSIS Endowment FundEndowed ProfessorshipsCareer OpportunitiesGetting to RSIS
      Staff ProfilesExecutive Deputy Chairman’s OfficeDean’s OfficeManagementDistinguished FellowsFaculty and ResearchAssociate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research AnalystsVisiting FellowsAdjunct FellowsAdministrative Staff
  • Research
      Research CentresCentre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)Centre of Excellence for National SecurityInstitute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
      Research ProgrammesNational Security Studies Programme (NSSP)Social Cohesion Research Programme (SCRP)Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
      Other ResearchFuture Issues and Technology ClusterResearch@RSISScience and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
  • Graduate Education
      Graduate Programmes OfficeExchange Partners and ProgrammesHow to ApplyFinancial AssistanceMeet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other eventsRSIS Alumni
  • Outreach
      Global NetworksAbout Global NetworksRSIS Alumni
      Executive EducationAbout Executive EducationSRP Executive ProgrammeTerrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
      International ProgrammesAbout International ProgrammesAsia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)International Conference on Cohesive Societies (ICCS)International Strategy Forum-Asia (ISF-Asia)
  • Publications
      RSIS PublicationsAnnual ReviewsBooksBulletins and NewslettersRSIS Commentary SeriesCounter Terrorist Trends and AnalysesCommemorative / Event ReportsFuture IssuesIDSS PapersInterreligious RelationsMonographsNTS InsightPolicy ReportsWorking Papers
      External PublicationsAuthored BooksJournal ArticlesEdited BooksChapters in Edited BooksPolicy ReportsWorking PapersOp-Eds
      Glossary of AbbreviationsPolicy-relevant Articles Given RSIS AwardRSIS Publications for the YearExternal Publications for the Year
  • Media
      Cohesive SocietiesSustainable SecurityOther Resource PagesNews ReleasesSpeechesVideo/Audio ChannelExternal Podcasts
  • Events
  • Contact Us
    • Connect with Us

      rsis.ntu
      rsis_ntu
      rsisntu
      rsisvideocast
      school/rsis-ntu
      rsis.sg
      rsissg
      RSIS
      RSS
      Subscribe to RSIS Publications
      Subscribe to RSIS Events

      Getting to RSIS

      Nanyang Technological University
      Block S4, Level B3,
      50 Nanyang Avenue,
      Singapore 639798

      Click here for direction to RSIS

      Get in Touch

    Connect
    Search
    • RSIS
    • Publication
    • RSIS Publications
    • CO12011 | US sanctions against Iran: Enough to go Nuclear?
    • Annual Reviews
    • Books
    • Bulletins and Newsletters
    • RSIS Commentary Series
    • Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
    • Commemorative / Event Reports
    • Future Issues
    • IDSS Papers
    • Interreligious Relations
    • Monographs
    • NTS Insight
    • Policy Reports
    • Working Papers

    CO12011 | US sanctions against Iran: Enough to go Nuclear?
    Sajjad Ashraf

    13 January 2012

    download pdf

    Synopsis

    Fresh US sanctions and Iran’s belligerent response have heightened tensions in the Persian Gulf. While Iran believes its revolution is under siege it is undeterred from pursuing its nuclear programme and believes it can survive the sanctions.

    Commentary

    THE LATEST round of US sanctions against Iran has earned a belligerent response from Tehran and heightened tensions in the Persian Gulf. As the sanctions came into force Iran threatened to block the Straits of Hormuz, through which nearly 30 per cent seaborne oil passes. Last month Iran launched naval exercises and successfully test fired long range missiles in the Gulf. Iran simultaneously expressed its readiness to talk to the United Nations’ P-5 and Germany over the concerns relating to its nuclear programme.

    The Iranian reaction was prompted by the belief of President Ahmedinejad’s government that the US wants a regime change in Tehran, including by military means. Iran sees the active US military deployment in the Gulf and the increased arming of its regional rivals as evidence of US designs to encircle Iran. These, ordinary Iranians feel, are sufficient grounds for Iran to acquire nuclear weapons. A 2010 University of Maryland survey found 38 per cent of Iranians supporting the building of nuclear weapons. Given the threat Iran feels now these numbers have surely gone up.

    Siege mentality

    The Iranian regime has noticed that the US adopts differing stances towards its adversaries and in its pursuit of curtailing the use of nuclear power. The US, they understand, waged war against non-nuclear Iraq but has chosen to pursue patient diplomacy with the nuclear armed North Korea and Pakistan. The Iranians believe that their revolution is under attack.

    Their siege mentality is buttressed by the following factors: Iran continues to have prickly relations with most of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states – all of them supported by the West. Iran is outspent militarily by at least three of its neighbours – Saudi Arabia, Israel and Turkey – all aligned to the US. The other states in the region are also arming themselves heavily with US-supplied weaponry. Following isolation and sanctions by the West, the Iranian conventional forces are equipped with obsolete weaponry compared to those of its regional adversaries.

    While much is made of the IAEA reports condemning Iran, the latest IAEA Board of Governors Report released in November 2011 continues “to verify the non-diversion of declared nuclear material at [Iran’s] nuclear facilities”. And yet, Iran’s intentions continue to be doubted by the Western powers while Iran insists on exercising its “inalienable” right to nuclear power for peaceful purposes as provided under the Non-proliferation Treaty.

    Sanctions not hurting?

    The US claims that Iran’s bomb will substantially improve its ability to intimidate the smaller, oil rich but militarily vulnerable states in the region. However Iran argues that it has only gone for military action for defensive purposes, recalling the war against Saddam Hussein’s Iraq in the 1980s.

    Iran understands that nuclear weaponry will not be able to cow the smaller states especially if they are backed by the US power. The real problem, according to Tehran, is US hegemonic ambition. Nevertheless there is little public support for the Iranian position in the Gulf states.

    Meanwhile, according to Iranian sources, sanctions are not hurting Iran too much. It is selling 2.4 million barrels of oil a day at above US$100 barrel. As for the sanction against Iran’s Central Bank, they say many banks, unaffiliated with the US, are ready to trade; and so are new suppliers in many countries. While the use of these circuitous routes has pushed up prices, the money flow from rising energy prices offsets the costs. Given the Russian and Chinese reservations over the new UN sanctions Iran does not yet seem to be heading for a national collapse.

    The US impression that the Iranian leadership will disintegrate under pressure is a serious miscalculation. With the string of US military bases around it, Iran obviously is resentful that it remains under siege by the West. The West’s posturing and sanctions actually bring consequences opposite to the ones sought by the US and these powers.

    About the Author

    Sajjad Ashraf, Pakistan’s High Commissioner to Singapore 2004-2008, contributed this article specially to RSIS Commentaries. He is now an adjunct professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore and a Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. 

    Categories: RSIS Commentary Series

    Synopsis

    Fresh US sanctions and Iran’s belligerent response have heightened tensions in the Persian Gulf. While Iran believes its revolution is under siege it is undeterred from pursuing its nuclear programme and believes it can survive the sanctions.

    Commentary

    THE LATEST round of US sanctions against Iran has earned a belligerent response from Tehran and heightened tensions in the Persian Gulf. As the sanctions came into force Iran threatened to block the Straits of Hormuz, through which nearly 30 per cent seaborne oil passes. Last month Iran launched naval exercises and successfully test fired long range missiles in the Gulf. Iran simultaneously expressed its readiness to talk to the United Nations’ P-5 and Germany over the concerns relating to its nuclear programme.

    The Iranian reaction was prompted by the belief of President Ahmedinejad’s government that the US wants a regime change in Tehran, including by military means. Iran sees the active US military deployment in the Gulf and the increased arming of its regional rivals as evidence of US designs to encircle Iran. These, ordinary Iranians feel, are sufficient grounds for Iran to acquire nuclear weapons. A 2010 University of Maryland survey found 38 per cent of Iranians supporting the building of nuclear weapons. Given the threat Iran feels now these numbers have surely gone up.

    Siege mentality

    The Iranian regime has noticed that the US adopts differing stances towards its adversaries and in its pursuit of curtailing the use of nuclear power. The US, they understand, waged war against non-nuclear Iraq but has chosen to pursue patient diplomacy with the nuclear armed North Korea and Pakistan. The Iranians believe that their revolution is under attack.

    Their siege mentality is buttressed by the following factors: Iran continues to have prickly relations with most of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states – all of them supported by the West. Iran is outspent militarily by at least three of its neighbours – Saudi Arabia, Israel and Turkey – all aligned to the US. The other states in the region are also arming themselves heavily with US-supplied weaponry. Following isolation and sanctions by the West, the Iranian conventional forces are equipped with obsolete weaponry compared to those of its regional adversaries.

    While much is made of the IAEA reports condemning Iran, the latest IAEA Board of Governors Report released in November 2011 continues “to verify the non-diversion of declared nuclear material at [Iran’s] nuclear facilities”. And yet, Iran’s intentions continue to be doubted by the Western powers while Iran insists on exercising its “inalienable” right to nuclear power for peaceful purposes as provided under the Non-proliferation Treaty.

    Sanctions not hurting?

    The US claims that Iran’s bomb will substantially improve its ability to intimidate the smaller, oil rich but militarily vulnerable states in the region. However Iran argues that it has only gone for military action for defensive purposes, recalling the war against Saddam Hussein’s Iraq in the 1980s.

    Iran understands that nuclear weaponry will not be able to cow the smaller states especially if they are backed by the US power. The real problem, according to Tehran, is US hegemonic ambition. Nevertheless there is little public support for the Iranian position in the Gulf states.

    Meanwhile, according to Iranian sources, sanctions are not hurting Iran too much. It is selling 2.4 million barrels of oil a day at above US$100 barrel. As for the sanction against Iran’s Central Bank, they say many banks, unaffiliated with the US, are ready to trade; and so are new suppliers in many countries. While the use of these circuitous routes has pushed up prices, the money flow from rising energy prices offsets the costs. Given the Russian and Chinese reservations over the new UN sanctions Iran does not yet seem to be heading for a national collapse.

    The US impression that the Iranian leadership will disintegrate under pressure is a serious miscalculation. With the string of US military bases around it, Iran obviously is resentful that it remains under siege by the West. The West’s posturing and sanctions actually bring consequences opposite to the ones sought by the US and these powers.

    About the Author

    Sajjad Ashraf, Pakistan’s High Commissioner to Singapore 2004-2008, contributed this article specially to RSIS Commentaries. He is now an adjunct professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore and a Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. 

    Categories: RSIS Commentary Series

    Popular Links

    About RSISResearch ProgrammesGraduate EducationPublicationsEventsAdmissionsCareersVideo/Audio ChannelRSIS Intranet

    Connect with Us

    rsis.ntu
    rsis_ntu
    rsisntu
    rsisvideocast
    school/rsis-ntu
    rsis.sg
    rsissg
    RSIS
    RSS
    Subscribe to RSIS Publications
    Subscribe to RSIS Events

    Getting to RSIS

    Nanyang Technological University
    Block S4, Level B3,
    50 Nanyang Avenue,
    Singapore 639798

    Click here for direction to RSIS

    Get in Touch

      Copyright © S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. All rights reserved.
      Privacy Statement / Terms of Use
      Help us improve

        Rate your experience with this website
        123456
        Not satisfiedVery satisfied
        What did you like?
        0/255 characters
        What can be improved?
        0/255 characters
        Your email
        Please enter a valid email.
        Thank you for your feedback.
        This site uses cookies to offer you a better browsing experience. By continuing, you are agreeing to the use of cookies on your device as described in our privacy policy. Learn more
        OK
        Latest Book
        more info