Back
About RSIS
Introduction
Building the Foundations
Welcome Message
Board of Governors
Staff Profiles
Executive Deputy Chairman’s Office
Dean’s Office
Management
Distinguished Fellows
Faculty and Research
Associate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research Analysts
Visiting Fellows
Adjunct Fellows
Administrative Staff
Honours and Awards for RSIS Staff and Students
RSIS Endowment Fund
Endowed Professorships
Career Opportunities
Getting to RSIS
Research
Research Centres
Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)
Centre of Excellence for National Security
Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)
International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
Research Programmes
National Security Studies Programme (NSSP)
Social Cohesion Research Programme (SCRP)
Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
Other Research
Future Issues and Technology Cluster
Research@RSIS
Science and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
Graduate Education
Graduate Programmes Office
Exchange Partners and Programmes
How to Apply
Financial Assistance
Meet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other events
RSIS Alumni
Outreach
Global Networks
About Global Networks
RSIS Alumni
Executive Education
About Executive Education
SRP Executive Programme
Terrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
International Programmes
About International Programmes
Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)
Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)
International Conference on Cohesive Societies (ICCS)
International Strategy Forum-Asia (ISF-Asia)
Publications
RSIS Publications
Annual Reviews
Books
Bulletins and Newsletters
RSIS Commentary Series
Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
Commemorative / Event Reports
Future Issues
IDSS Papers
Interreligious Relations
Monographs
NTS Insight
Policy Reports
Working Papers
External Publications
Authored Books
Journal Articles
Edited Books
Chapters in Edited Books
Policy Reports
Working Papers
Op-Eds
Glossary of Abbreviations
Policy-relevant Articles Given RSIS Award
RSIS Publications for the Year
External Publications for the Year
Media
Cohesive Societies
Sustainable Security
Other Resource Pages
News Releases
Speeches
Video/Audio Channel
External Podcasts
Events
Contact Us
S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies Think Tank and Graduate School Ponder The Improbable Since 1966
Nanyang Technological University Nanyang Technological University
  • About RSIS
      IntroductionBuilding the FoundationsWelcome MessageBoard of GovernorsHonours and Awards for RSIS Staff and StudentsRSIS Endowment FundEndowed ProfessorshipsCareer OpportunitiesGetting to RSIS
      Staff ProfilesExecutive Deputy Chairman’s OfficeDean’s OfficeManagementDistinguished FellowsFaculty and ResearchAssociate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research AnalystsVisiting FellowsAdjunct FellowsAdministrative Staff
  • Research
      Research CentresCentre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)Centre of Excellence for National SecurityInstitute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
      Research ProgrammesNational Security Studies Programme (NSSP)Social Cohesion Research Programme (SCRP)Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
      Other ResearchFuture Issues and Technology ClusterResearch@RSISScience and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
  • Graduate Education
      Graduate Programmes OfficeExchange Partners and ProgrammesHow to ApplyFinancial AssistanceMeet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other eventsRSIS Alumni
  • Outreach
      Global NetworksAbout Global NetworksRSIS Alumni
      Executive EducationAbout Executive EducationSRP Executive ProgrammeTerrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
      International ProgrammesAbout International ProgrammesAsia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)International Conference on Cohesive Societies (ICCS)International Strategy Forum-Asia (ISF-Asia)
  • Publications
      RSIS PublicationsAnnual ReviewsBooksBulletins and NewslettersRSIS Commentary SeriesCounter Terrorist Trends and AnalysesCommemorative / Event ReportsFuture IssuesIDSS PapersInterreligious RelationsMonographsNTS InsightPolicy ReportsWorking Papers
      External PublicationsAuthored BooksJournal ArticlesEdited BooksChapters in Edited BooksPolicy ReportsWorking PapersOp-Eds
      Glossary of AbbreviationsPolicy-relevant Articles Given RSIS AwardRSIS Publications for the YearExternal Publications for the Year
  • Media
      Cohesive SocietiesSustainable SecurityOther Resource PagesNews ReleasesSpeechesVideo/Audio ChannelExternal Podcasts
  • Events
  • Contact Us
    • Connect with Us

      rsis.ntu
      rsis_ntu
      rsisntu
      rsisvideocast
      school/rsis-ntu
      rsis.sg
      rsissg
      RSIS
      RSS
      Subscribe to RSIS Publications
      Subscribe to RSIS Events

      Getting to RSIS

      Nanyang Technological University
      Block S4, Level B3,
      50 Nanyang Avenue,
      Singapore 639798

      Click here for direction to RSIS

      Get in Touch

    Connect
    Search
    • RSIS
    • Publication
    • RSIS Publications
    • CO13009 | The Return of Shinzo Abe: Implications for Indo-Japanese Relations
    • Annual Reviews
    • Books
    • Bulletins and Newsletters
    • RSIS Commentary Series
    • Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
    • Commemorative / Event Reports
    • Future Issues
    • IDSS Papers
    • Interreligious Relations
    • Monographs
    • NTS Insight
    • Policy Reports
    • Working Papers

    CO13009 | The Return of Shinzo Abe: Implications for Indo-Japanese Relations
    Tomoko Kiyota

    17 January 2013

    download pdf

    Synopsis

    The newly elected Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe has aroused expectations that his second term in office will lead to deeper Indo-Japanese ties. While there is indeed considerable scope for this, Abe has to address several domestic challenges.

    Commentary

    THE LIBERAL Democratic Party of Japan (LDP), which won 294 seats in the 480-member Lower House in the December 2012 elections, returned to power after over three years in opposition. The LDP leader, Shinzo Abe, has reassumed the position of prime minister five years after he resigned from the post.

    Besides being known to be ‘nationalistic’ and ‘conservative’ in outlook, Abe is also remembered by many as being ‘pro-India’ in foreign policy. During his first term from September 2006 to September 2007, he promoted the Quadrilateral Initiative which was deemed by observers as an attempt by Japan, India, Australia and the United States to encircle China.

    Enhancement of strong Indo-Japanese ties?

    Japan and India also signed a joint statement on a Roadmap for Strategic and Global Partnership in August 2007 during Abe’s visit to New Delhi. Soon after the latest election, Abe told interviewers that he sought to expand the Japan-US security partnership to India and Australia. There are thus renewed expectations that the two countries will work further to enhance Indo-Japanese ties. However, it may not be easy for him to promote further cooperation with India in concrete terms, especially in the security sphere.

    To begin with, it is questionable if he can sign new significant agreements and treaties with India. Tokyo and New Delhi already have many treaties and agreements including the “Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation between Japan and India,” signed in October 2008 under PM Taro Aso, and the “Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement” signed in February 2011 under PM Naoto Kan. In the security and energy spheres, there are hopes that cooperation would take place in the fields of nuclear and military technologies.

    Although former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh agreed in November 2012 to continue dialogue on civil nuclear technology cooperation there are obstacles, such as India’s nuclear liability law and non-membership of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, as well as the Japanese public’s opposition against nuclear power after the Fukushima disaster.

    On the other hand, the previous Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) government eased Japan’s Arms Export Ban in December 2011, and opened up new opportunities for Japanese defence industries to potentially participate in the co-development of weapons with India. On this matter, Abe will have to seek the agreement of his Indian counterparts not to use the co-developed weapons in international conflicts, and not to sell them to the third parties, without prior agreement of Japan. Since India has fought several border conflicts with neighbouring countries even in recent history, Abe will also have to overcome Japanese domestic objections. Both will be likely to take a long time, possibly even beyond Abe’s current tenure.

    Apart from such treaties, there are other ways to engage in substantive cooperation, like having more regular and practical joint military exercises. The Japan Maritime Self-Defence Forces has conducted several joint operations including the multilateral Exercise Malabar with the US, Australia and Singapore, and the first bilateral Japan-India Maritime Exercise (JIMEX) with the Indian Navy in 2012. Since 2000, Japan and India have also agreed to implement joint exercises between the two coast guards annually. Both activities have potential to expand into areas such as land and air forces joint operations, beyond counter piracy or disaster relief exercises.

    Abe’s challenges

    However, Abe will again face obstacles with such initiatives. Firstly, since Japan’s Self-Defence Forces still has to overcome the legal and Constitutional restrictions in order to step up cooperation with India, it is necessary for Abe to review the structure of Japan’s national security system. Remarkably, the LDP promised to amend the Constitution and change the name of Self-Defence Force (Jieitai) to National Defence Force (Kokubogun). This is a big difference in Japanese because “gun” means the armed force while “tai” means a team. Nonetheless, such developments are highly dependent on the result of the Upper House elections due in summer 2013, because a two-thirds majority vote in both houses is required to amend the Constitution while the opposition DPJ has a majority in the Upper House.

    In this context, his ability to manage the domestic political challenges must also be factored into Tokyo’s policy towards New Delhi. Abe has to concentrate on tasks such as the reconstruction of the Tohoku region following the March 2011 earthquake; whether to join the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade talks; and recovery of the Japanese economy. In addition, he will also have to settle the American base re-location problem which impacts relations with Japan’s most important ally, the US.

    Secondly, he has to deal with China’s strong reaction towards closer ties between Japan and India. The Quadrilateral Initiative involving Japan, US, Australia and India during his previous tenure faded away in part because it provoked China’s discomfort; it is possible that any similar initiative will encounter the same problem. As Abe also mentioned during his interview, the enhancement of Indo-Japanese ties is necessary to strengthen Japanese diplomatic power to cope well with China.

    However, if the Indo-Japanese ties remains symbolic, China will not see those relations in terms of Japanese diplomatic power. If Abe likes to enhance the ties with India in more concrete terms to encounter China’s assertiveness, he will have to manage China’s strong reaction. Abe therefore has to balance Japan’s diplomatic and strategic orientations cautiously.

    Ultimately, whether Abe is able to take Indo-Japanese relations to the next level will depend on his China policy, as well as his ability to manage the domestic political challenges. All these depend on how long he is able to stay as prime minister this time round, giving Japan’s “revolving door” political system.

    About the Author    

    Tomoko Kiyota is currently a Visiting Fellow at the Department of Geopolitics and International Relations, Manipal University, Karnataka, India, and a doctoral candidate at the Graduate School of International Cooperation Studies, Takushoku University, Tokyo. He contributed this article specially to RSIS Commentaries.

    Categories: RSIS Commentary Series

    Synopsis

    The newly elected Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe has aroused expectations that his second term in office will lead to deeper Indo-Japanese ties. While there is indeed considerable scope for this, Abe has to address several domestic challenges.

    Commentary

    THE LIBERAL Democratic Party of Japan (LDP), which won 294 seats in the 480-member Lower House in the December 2012 elections, returned to power after over three years in opposition. The LDP leader, Shinzo Abe, has reassumed the position of prime minister five years after he resigned from the post.

    Besides being known to be ‘nationalistic’ and ‘conservative’ in outlook, Abe is also remembered by many as being ‘pro-India’ in foreign policy. During his first term from September 2006 to September 2007, he promoted the Quadrilateral Initiative which was deemed by observers as an attempt by Japan, India, Australia and the United States to encircle China.

    Enhancement of strong Indo-Japanese ties?

    Japan and India also signed a joint statement on a Roadmap for Strategic and Global Partnership in August 2007 during Abe’s visit to New Delhi. Soon after the latest election, Abe told interviewers that he sought to expand the Japan-US security partnership to India and Australia. There are thus renewed expectations that the two countries will work further to enhance Indo-Japanese ties. However, it may not be easy for him to promote further cooperation with India in concrete terms, especially in the security sphere.

    To begin with, it is questionable if he can sign new significant agreements and treaties with India. Tokyo and New Delhi already have many treaties and agreements including the “Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation between Japan and India,” signed in October 2008 under PM Taro Aso, and the “Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement” signed in February 2011 under PM Naoto Kan. In the security and energy spheres, there are hopes that cooperation would take place in the fields of nuclear and military technologies.

    Although former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh agreed in November 2012 to continue dialogue on civil nuclear technology cooperation there are obstacles, such as India’s nuclear liability law and non-membership of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, as well as the Japanese public’s opposition against nuclear power after the Fukushima disaster.

    On the other hand, the previous Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) government eased Japan’s Arms Export Ban in December 2011, and opened up new opportunities for Japanese defence industries to potentially participate in the co-development of weapons with India. On this matter, Abe will have to seek the agreement of his Indian counterparts not to use the co-developed weapons in international conflicts, and not to sell them to the third parties, without prior agreement of Japan. Since India has fought several border conflicts with neighbouring countries even in recent history, Abe will also have to overcome Japanese domestic objections. Both will be likely to take a long time, possibly even beyond Abe’s current tenure.

    Apart from such treaties, there are other ways to engage in substantive cooperation, like having more regular and practical joint military exercises. The Japan Maritime Self-Defence Forces has conducted several joint operations including the multilateral Exercise Malabar with the US, Australia and Singapore, and the first bilateral Japan-India Maritime Exercise (JIMEX) with the Indian Navy in 2012. Since 2000, Japan and India have also agreed to implement joint exercises between the two coast guards annually. Both activities have potential to expand into areas such as land and air forces joint operations, beyond counter piracy or disaster relief exercises.

    Abe’s challenges

    However, Abe will again face obstacles with such initiatives. Firstly, since Japan’s Self-Defence Forces still has to overcome the legal and Constitutional restrictions in order to step up cooperation with India, it is necessary for Abe to review the structure of Japan’s national security system. Remarkably, the LDP promised to amend the Constitution and change the name of Self-Defence Force (Jieitai) to National Defence Force (Kokubogun). This is a big difference in Japanese because “gun” means the armed force while “tai” means a team. Nonetheless, such developments are highly dependent on the result of the Upper House elections due in summer 2013, because a two-thirds majority vote in both houses is required to amend the Constitution while the opposition DPJ has a majority in the Upper House.

    In this context, his ability to manage the domestic political challenges must also be factored into Tokyo’s policy towards New Delhi. Abe has to concentrate on tasks such as the reconstruction of the Tohoku region following the March 2011 earthquake; whether to join the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade talks; and recovery of the Japanese economy. In addition, he will also have to settle the American base re-location problem which impacts relations with Japan’s most important ally, the US.

    Secondly, he has to deal with China’s strong reaction towards closer ties between Japan and India. The Quadrilateral Initiative involving Japan, US, Australia and India during his previous tenure faded away in part because it provoked China’s discomfort; it is possible that any similar initiative will encounter the same problem. As Abe also mentioned during his interview, the enhancement of Indo-Japanese ties is necessary to strengthen Japanese diplomatic power to cope well with China.

    However, if the Indo-Japanese ties remains symbolic, China will not see those relations in terms of Japanese diplomatic power. If Abe likes to enhance the ties with India in more concrete terms to encounter China’s assertiveness, he will have to manage China’s strong reaction. Abe therefore has to balance Japan’s diplomatic and strategic orientations cautiously.

    Ultimately, whether Abe is able to take Indo-Japanese relations to the next level will depend on his China policy, as well as his ability to manage the domestic political challenges. All these depend on how long he is able to stay as prime minister this time round, giving Japan’s “revolving door” political system.

    About the Author    

    Tomoko Kiyota is currently a Visiting Fellow at the Department of Geopolitics and International Relations, Manipal University, Karnataka, India, and a doctoral candidate at the Graduate School of International Cooperation Studies, Takushoku University, Tokyo. He contributed this article specially to RSIS Commentaries.

    Categories: RSIS Commentary Series

    Popular Links

    About RSISResearch ProgrammesGraduate EducationPublicationsEventsAdmissionsCareersVideo/Audio ChannelRSIS Intranet

    Connect with Us

    rsis.ntu
    rsis_ntu
    rsisntu
    rsisvideocast
    school/rsis-ntu
    rsis.sg
    rsissg
    RSIS
    RSS
    Subscribe to RSIS Publications
    Subscribe to RSIS Events

    Getting to RSIS

    Nanyang Technological University
    Block S4, Level B3,
    50 Nanyang Avenue,
    Singapore 639798

    Click here for direction to RSIS

    Get in Touch

      Copyright © S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. All rights reserved.
      Privacy Statement / Terms of Use
      Help us improve

        Rate your experience with this website
        123456
        Not satisfiedVery satisfied
        What did you like?
        0/255 characters
        What can be improved?
        0/255 characters
        Your email
        Please enter a valid email.
        Thank you for your feedback.
        This site uses cookies to offer you a better browsing experience. By continuing, you are agreeing to the use of cookies on your device as described in our privacy policy. Learn more
        OK
        Latest Book
        more info