Back
About RSIS
Introduction
Building the Foundations
Welcome Message
Board of Governors
Staff Profiles
Executive Deputy Chairman’s Office
Dean’s Office
Management
Distinguished Fellows
Faculty and Research
Associate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research Analysts
Visiting Fellows
Adjunct Fellows
Administrative Staff
Honours and Awards for RSIS Staff and Students
RSIS Endowment Fund
Endowed Professorships
Career Opportunities
Getting to RSIS
Research
Research Centres
Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)
Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS)
Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)
International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
Research Programmes
National Security Studies Programme (NSSP)
Social Cohesion Research Programme (SCRP)
Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
Other Research
Future Issues and Technology Cluster
Research@RSIS
Science and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
Graduate Education
Graduate Programmes Office
Exchange Partners and Programmes
How to Apply
Financial Assistance
Meet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other events
RSIS Alumni
Outreach
Global Networks
About Global Networks
RSIS Alumni
International Programmes
About International Programmes
Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)
Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)
International Conference on Cohesive Societies (ICCS)
International Strategy Forum-Asia (ISF-Asia)
Executive Education
About Executive Education
SRP Executive Programme
Terrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
Public Education
About Public Education
Publications
RSIS Publications
Annual Reviews
Books
Bulletins and Newsletters
RSIS Commentary Series
Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
Commemorative / Event Reports
Future Issues
IDSS Papers
Interreligious Relations
Monographs
NTS Insight
Policy Reports
Working Papers
External Publications
Authored Books
Journal Articles
Edited Books
Chapters in Edited Books
Policy Reports
Working Papers
Op-Eds
Glossary of Abbreviations
Policy-relevant Articles Given RSIS Award
RSIS Publications for the Year
External Publications for the Year
Media
News Releases
Speeches
Video/Audio Channel
Events
Contact Us
S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies Think Tank and Graduate School Ponder The Improbable Since 1966
Nanyang Technological University Nanyang Technological University
  • About RSIS
      IntroductionBuilding the FoundationsWelcome MessageBoard of GovernorsHonours and Awards for RSIS Staff and StudentsRSIS Endowment FundEndowed ProfessorshipsCareer OpportunitiesGetting to RSIS
      Staff ProfilesExecutive Deputy Chairman’s OfficeDean’s OfficeManagementDistinguished FellowsFaculty and ResearchAssociate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research AnalystsVisiting FellowsAdjunct FellowsAdministrative Staff
  • Research
      Research CentresCentre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS)Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
      Research ProgrammesNational Security Studies Programme (NSSP)Social Cohesion Research Programme (SCRP)Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
      Other ResearchFuture Issues and Technology ClusterResearch@RSISScience and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
  • Graduate Education
      Graduate Programmes OfficeExchange Partners and ProgrammesHow to ApplyFinancial AssistanceMeet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other eventsRSIS Alumni
  • Outreach
      Global NetworksAbout Global NetworksRSIS Alumni
      International ProgrammesAbout International ProgrammesAsia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)International Conference on Cohesive Societies (ICCS)International Strategy Forum-Asia (ISF-Asia)
      Executive EducationAbout Executive EducationSRP Executive ProgrammeTerrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
      Public EducationAbout Public Education
  • Publications
      RSIS PublicationsAnnual ReviewsBooksBulletins and NewslettersRSIS Commentary SeriesCounter Terrorist Trends and AnalysesCommemorative / Event ReportsFuture IssuesIDSS PapersInterreligious RelationsMonographsNTS InsightPolicy ReportsWorking Papers
      External PublicationsAuthored BooksJournal ArticlesEdited BooksChapters in Edited BooksPolicy ReportsWorking PapersOp-Eds
      Glossary of AbbreviationsPolicy-relevant Articles Given RSIS AwardRSIS Publications for the YearExternal Publications for the Year
  • Media
      News ReleasesSpeechesVideo/Audio Channel
  • Events
  • Contact Us
    • Connect with Us

      rsis.ntu
      rsis_ntu
      rsisntu
      rsisvideocast
      school/rsis-ntu
      rsis.sg
      rsissg
      RSIS
      RSS
      Subscribe to RSIS Publications
      Subscribe to RSIS Events

      Getting to RSIS

      Nanyang Technological University
      Block S4, Level B3,
      50 Nanyang Avenue,
      Singapore 639798

      Click here for direction to RSIS
Connect
Search
  • RSIS
  • Publication
  • RSIS Publications
  • CO13024 | Rise of China and India: Global Game Changer?
  • Annual Reviews
  • Books
  • Bulletins and Newsletters
  • RSIS Commentary Series
  • Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
  • Commemorative / Event Reports
  • Future Issues
  • IDSS Papers
  • Interreligious Relations
  • Monographs
  • NTS Insight
  • Policy Reports
  • Working Papers

CO13024 | Rise of China and India: Global Game Changer?
Sajjad Ashraf

07 February 2013

download pdf

Synopsis

Relations between China and India have grown apace including in military cooperation. As they become the largest economies in the world this century they will together be the main drivers of the global economy.

Commentary

IN A parallel development with the rise of Asia, bilateral relations between the two largest countries, China and India, have improved remarkably since the late 1980s. Trade volume, which was about US$3 billion at the turn of the century has soared to US$80 billion, making China India’s largest trading partner and India China’s biggest trading partner in South Asia. They aim to increase their trade to US$100 billion by 2015.

Underscoring the importance of China-India relations Mr Xi Jinping, the new General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party and President-in-waiting of China, in a letter to Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, assured that China “expects to carry out close cooperation with India to create a brighter future of their bilateral relations”. The world, he added, has enough space for the two and “needs their common development”

Boom in economic activity

In a sign of their growing engagement China and India announced a resumption of joint military exercises at the conclusion of their joint defence dialogue in mid-January. Reacting to the news, the leader of the Opposition in the Indian Parliament Shushma Swaraj said the future generations are assured of peace and prosperity.

Indian business circles are ecstatic about the growing China-India business relationship. The common people of India, as elsewhere, are happy benefitting from the mass of cheap Chinese products. Together, China and India as factory and service centre respectively to the world, are on track to drive much of the global economy this century. This volume of business activity reflects the two countries’ mutual political guiding principles that “economic and trade relations are conducive to the increase of mutual trust…”

The IMF estimates that the Chinese total GDP may over-take the US by 2017. By the middle of this century China and India will be the biggest economies in the world. Together the two have a GDP of approximately US$ 10 trillion and are expected to make up around 30 per cent of the world GDP in 2015 lifting the continent and far beyond with them.

China has become the world’s second largest oil importer after the US importing roughly 5.5 million barrels per day (BPD), while India at number four imports approximately 2.3 million BPD. The bulk of their oil originates from the Persian Gulf and Africa. As economic powerhouses both need to cooperate in ensuring the security of sea-lanes.

New strategic environment?

China and India are ancient civilisations, known for their immense contribution to human knowledge, growing peacefully across Himalayas. People from both countries have spread afar peacefully taking along with them Chinese and Indian cultures to the far corners of the world with no histories of colonizing others. In the new strategic environment of a globalised world the two countries are poised to take their cooperation to a new level.

While there are many convergences between China and India there still remain several disputes, which need to be managed and defused carefully. The short 1962 border war is an aberration in centuries of peaceful existence, leaving behind an unpleasant legacy of disputed border from Arunachal Pradesh in the east to Kashmir in the west. There are differences over Tibet and rivers flowing from there and over how India deals with Pakistan – China’s important ally.

India watches warily as the Chinese build ports in Pakistan, Sri Lanka and establish their presence in Seychelles and along the east coast of Africa. The Chinese are concerned at India-Vietnam oil explorations in South China Sea, which China claims as its territorial waters.

Differences and partnerships

The differences have not deterred the two countries from developing economic partnership as a precursor to solving more intractable issues, such as their border disputes. China is convinced that America’s “pivot” to Asia policy is meant to contain China. It’s worrisome for China when influential US analysts like Robert Kaplan openly promote India “to act as a counter-balance to the rising Chinese power.”

That is why very early in his term Mr. Xi chose to send a personal letter to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh acknowledging India as a key interlocutor for maintaining peace and security in the region. An alignment where China feels “contained” is not in India’s interest nor Asia’s; indeed their being adversaries will hinder the Asian century.

Having decided under Deng Xiaoping to single-mindedly pursue economic development, China has in 30 years lifted over 650 million Chinese out of poverty and is well on the way to global leadership. India too has released its economic potential by liberalising its economy and boasts a middle class population of over 350 million. The two need to complement each other.

This “democratisation of human spirit” amongst the third of mankind, as one Asian thinker calls it, channeled constructively together by China and India, can be the game changer for the good of the world. This should not be sacrificed for big power politics.

About the Author

Sajjad Ashraf, who was Pakistan’s High Commissioner to Singapore, 2004-2008 is an Adjunct Professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore. He wrote this specially for RSIS Commentaries.

Categories: RSIS Commentary Series

Synopsis

Relations between China and India have grown apace including in military cooperation. As they become the largest economies in the world this century they will together be the main drivers of the global economy.

Commentary

IN A parallel development with the rise of Asia, bilateral relations between the two largest countries, China and India, have improved remarkably since the late 1980s. Trade volume, which was about US$3 billion at the turn of the century has soared to US$80 billion, making China India’s largest trading partner and India China’s biggest trading partner in South Asia. They aim to increase their trade to US$100 billion by 2015.

Underscoring the importance of China-India relations Mr Xi Jinping, the new General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party and President-in-waiting of China, in a letter to Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, assured that China “expects to carry out close cooperation with India to create a brighter future of their bilateral relations”. The world, he added, has enough space for the two and “needs their common development”

Boom in economic activity

In a sign of their growing engagement China and India announced a resumption of joint military exercises at the conclusion of their joint defence dialogue in mid-January. Reacting to the news, the leader of the Opposition in the Indian Parliament Shushma Swaraj said the future generations are assured of peace and prosperity.

Indian business circles are ecstatic about the growing China-India business relationship. The common people of India, as elsewhere, are happy benefitting from the mass of cheap Chinese products. Together, China and India as factory and service centre respectively to the world, are on track to drive much of the global economy this century. This volume of business activity reflects the two countries’ mutual political guiding principles that “economic and trade relations are conducive to the increase of mutual trust…”

The IMF estimates that the Chinese total GDP may over-take the US by 2017. By the middle of this century China and India will be the biggest economies in the world. Together the two have a GDP of approximately US$ 10 trillion and are expected to make up around 30 per cent of the world GDP in 2015 lifting the continent and far beyond with them.

China has become the world’s second largest oil importer after the US importing roughly 5.5 million barrels per day (BPD), while India at number four imports approximately 2.3 million BPD. The bulk of their oil originates from the Persian Gulf and Africa. As economic powerhouses both need to cooperate in ensuring the security of sea-lanes.

New strategic environment?

China and India are ancient civilisations, known for their immense contribution to human knowledge, growing peacefully across Himalayas. People from both countries have spread afar peacefully taking along with them Chinese and Indian cultures to the far corners of the world with no histories of colonizing others. In the new strategic environment of a globalised world the two countries are poised to take their cooperation to a new level.

While there are many convergences between China and India there still remain several disputes, which need to be managed and defused carefully. The short 1962 border war is an aberration in centuries of peaceful existence, leaving behind an unpleasant legacy of disputed border from Arunachal Pradesh in the east to Kashmir in the west. There are differences over Tibet and rivers flowing from there and over how India deals with Pakistan – China’s important ally.

India watches warily as the Chinese build ports in Pakistan, Sri Lanka and establish their presence in Seychelles and along the east coast of Africa. The Chinese are concerned at India-Vietnam oil explorations in South China Sea, which China claims as its territorial waters.

Differences and partnerships

The differences have not deterred the two countries from developing economic partnership as a precursor to solving more intractable issues, such as their border disputes. China is convinced that America’s “pivot” to Asia policy is meant to contain China. It’s worrisome for China when influential US analysts like Robert Kaplan openly promote India “to act as a counter-balance to the rising Chinese power.”

That is why very early in his term Mr. Xi chose to send a personal letter to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh acknowledging India as a key interlocutor for maintaining peace and security in the region. An alignment where China feels “contained” is not in India’s interest nor Asia’s; indeed their being adversaries will hinder the Asian century.

Having decided under Deng Xiaoping to single-mindedly pursue economic development, China has in 30 years lifted over 650 million Chinese out of poverty and is well on the way to global leadership. India too has released its economic potential by liberalising its economy and boasts a middle class population of over 350 million. The two need to complement each other.

This “democratisation of human spirit” amongst the third of mankind, as one Asian thinker calls it, channeled constructively together by China and India, can be the game changer for the good of the world. This should not be sacrificed for big power politics.

About the Author

Sajjad Ashraf, who was Pakistan’s High Commissioner to Singapore, 2004-2008 is an Adjunct Professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore. He wrote this specially for RSIS Commentaries.

Categories: RSIS Commentary Series

Popular Links

About RSISResearch ProgrammesGraduate EducationPublicationsEventsAdmissionsCareersVideo/Audio ChannelRSIS Intranet

Connect with Us

rsis.ntu
rsis_ntu
rsisntu
rsisvideocast
school/rsis-ntu
rsis.sg
rsissg
RSIS
RSS
Subscribe to RSIS Publications
Subscribe to RSIS Events

Getting to RSIS

Nanyang Technological University
Block S4, Level B3,
50 Nanyang Avenue,
Singapore 639798

Click here for direction to RSIS

Get in Touch

    Copyright © S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. All rights reserved.
    Privacy Statement / Terms of Use
    Help us improve

      Rate your experience with this website
      123456
      Not satisfiedVery satisfied
      What did you like?
      0/255 characters
      What can be improved?
      0/255 characters
      Your email
      Please enter a valid email.
      Thank you for your feedback.
      This site uses cookies to offer you a better browsing experience. By continuing, you are agreeing to the use of cookies on your device as described in our privacy policy. Learn more
      OK
      Latest Book
      more info