Back
About RSIS
Introduction
Building the Foundations
Welcome Message
Board of Governors
Staff Profiles
Executive Deputy Chairman’s Office
Dean’s Office
Management
Distinguished Fellows
Faculty and Research
Associate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research Analysts
Visiting Fellows
Adjunct Fellows
Administrative Staff
Honours and Awards for RSIS Staff and Students
RSIS Endowment Fund
Endowed Professorships
Career Opportunities
Getting to RSIS
Research
Research Centres
Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)
Centre of Excellence for National Security
Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)
International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
Research Programmes
National Security Studies Programme (NSSP)
Social Cohesion Research Programme (SCRP)
Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
Other Research
Future Issues and Technology Cluster
Research@RSIS
Science and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
Graduate Education
Graduate Programmes Office
Exchange Partners and Programmes
How to Apply
Financial Assistance
Meet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other events
RSIS Alumni
Outreach
Global Networks
About Global Networks
RSIS Alumni
Executive Education
About Executive Education
SRP Executive Programme
Terrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
International Programmes
About International Programmes
Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)
Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)
International Conference on Cohesive Societies (ICCS)
International Strategy Forum-Asia (ISF-Asia)
Publications
RSIS Publications
Annual Reviews
Books
Bulletins and Newsletters
RSIS Commentary Series
Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
Commemorative / Event Reports
Future Issues
IDSS Papers
Interreligious Relations
Monographs
NTS Insight
Policy Reports
Working Papers
External Publications
Authored Books
Journal Articles
Edited Books
Chapters in Edited Books
Policy Reports
Working Papers
Op-Eds
Glossary of Abbreviations
Policy-relevant Articles Given RSIS Award
RSIS Publications for the Year
External Publications for the Year
Media
Cohesive Societies
Sustainable Security
Other Resource Pages
News Releases
Speeches
Video/Audio Channel
External Podcasts
Events
Contact Us
S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies Think Tank and Graduate School Ponder The Improbable Since 1966
Nanyang Technological University Nanyang Technological University
  • About RSIS
      IntroductionBuilding the FoundationsWelcome MessageBoard of GovernorsHonours and Awards for RSIS Staff and StudentsRSIS Endowment FundEndowed ProfessorshipsCareer OpportunitiesGetting to RSIS
      Staff ProfilesExecutive Deputy Chairman’s OfficeDean’s OfficeManagementDistinguished FellowsFaculty and ResearchAssociate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research AnalystsVisiting FellowsAdjunct FellowsAdministrative Staff
  • Research
      Research CentresCentre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)Centre of Excellence for National SecurityInstitute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
      Research ProgrammesNational Security Studies Programme (NSSP)Social Cohesion Research Programme (SCRP)Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
      Other ResearchFuture Issues and Technology ClusterResearch@RSISScience and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
  • Graduate Education
      Graduate Programmes OfficeExchange Partners and ProgrammesHow to ApplyFinancial AssistanceMeet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other eventsRSIS Alumni
  • Outreach
      Global NetworksAbout Global NetworksRSIS Alumni
      Executive EducationAbout Executive EducationSRP Executive ProgrammeTerrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
      International ProgrammesAbout International ProgrammesAsia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)International Conference on Cohesive Societies (ICCS)International Strategy Forum-Asia (ISF-Asia)
  • Publications
      RSIS PublicationsAnnual ReviewsBooksBulletins and NewslettersRSIS Commentary SeriesCounter Terrorist Trends and AnalysesCommemorative / Event ReportsFuture IssuesIDSS PapersInterreligious RelationsMonographsNTS InsightPolicy ReportsWorking Papers
      External PublicationsAuthored BooksJournal ArticlesEdited BooksChapters in Edited BooksPolicy ReportsWorking PapersOp-Eds
      Glossary of AbbreviationsPolicy-relevant Articles Given RSIS AwardRSIS Publications for the YearExternal Publications for the Year
  • Media
      Cohesive SocietiesSustainable SecurityOther Resource PagesNews ReleasesSpeechesVideo/Audio ChannelExternal Podcasts
  • Events
  • Contact Us
    • Connect with Us

      rsis.ntu
      rsis_ntu
      rsisntu
      rsisvideocast
      school/rsis-ntu
      rsis.sg
      rsissg
      RSIS
      RSS
      Subscribe to RSIS Publications
      Subscribe to RSIS Events

      Getting to RSIS

      Nanyang Technological University
      Block S4, Level B3,
      50 Nanyang Avenue,
      Singapore 639798

      Click here for direction to RSIS

      Get in Touch

    Connect
    Search
    • RSIS
    • Publication
    • RSIS Publications
    • CO13028 | Behind China’s “Grain Miracle”: More than Meets the Eye?
    • Annual Reviews
    • Books
    • Bulletins and Newsletters
    • RSIS Commentary Series
    • Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
    • Commemorative / Event Reports
    • Future Issues
    • IDSS Papers
    • Interreligious Relations
    • Monographs
    • NTS Insight
    • Policy Reports
    • Working Papers

    CO13028 | Behind China’s “Grain Miracle”: More than Meets the Eye?
    Zhang Hongzhou

    13 February 2013

    download pdf

    Synopsis

    China reports remarkable increase in grain production every year. Besides concerns over the reliability of its statistics, China’s “miraculous” grain production growth may not be sustainable.

    Commentary

    ACCORDING TO China’s official statistics the country’s grain production last year amounted to nearly 590 million tonnes, the ninth consecutive year of increase in its grain production. Against the backdrop of the global food crisis, China’s grain ‘miracle’ certainly contributes to global food security.

    However, there are domestic and international concerns over the reliability of the official grain production statistics and the sustainability of China’s grain production growth.

    Reliability of China’s statistics

    Official statistics on China’s agricultural sector are known to be unreliable. Over-reporting of grain production statistics during the Great Leap Forward period led to catastrophic famine and China’s over-reporting of its fisheries production in the late 1990s caused wide international concerns. Hence, it is not surprising that China’s current “Grain Miracle” is doubted. For several reasons, concerns over China’s recent grain production statistics are not unfounded.

    Firstly, China’s phenomenal grain production growth has been achieved in the period of notable decline of arable land, both in quantity and quality; rapid outflow of rural labour force as well as severe environmental pollution. Coincidentally, while China is celebrating the “grain miracle”, the country’s grain imports also reached a new historical high. In 2012, China’s grain imports reached 80 million tonnes, representing 14% of the domestic grain production in 2012. In the meantime, China imported nearly 14 million tonnes of staple grains (rice wheat and corn), a 156% increase over imports in the previous year.

    This dramatic increase in grain imports, including of rice, wheat and corn, soybeans and tuber crops, inevitably invites questions on the reliability of China’s grain statistics. Lastly, the Chinese authority’s reluctance to release its grain reserve data further contributes to doubts over its grain production statistics. Western media reports suggested that China had massively over-reported its grain production.

    To be fair, given China’s huge size and the fragmented nature of its agricultural sector, collecting agricultural statistics is inherently an extremely challenging task. And as grain issues are highly politicised in China, local government officials are inclined to exaggerate their grain production, which could lead to over-reporting of grain production at the national level.

    Sustainability of China’s grain production

    Notwithstanding concerns over the reliability of China’s statistics, it is undeniable that the country’s grain sector has made remarkable achievement in recent years for the simple reason that China has been almost unscathed by the global food crisis in 2008 and the dramatic rise of global food prices in the last two years. Still, an important question is the sustainability of China’s grain production capability. Towards this end, it is crucial to understand the contributing factors to China’s grain production miracle in recent years.

    China’s grain production increase is partially attributed to the expansion of grain production areas. From 2004 to 2012, China’s grain production area has increased by 12%, contributing to 32% of the country’s grain production increase. Since 2004, China has introduced a variety of policies such as the Direct Grain Subsidy to stimulate the country’s grain production. These policies together with dramatic rise of the rural labour cost have resulted in a significant shift in China’s agriculture production structure.

    Farmers respond to the government’s stimulus policies by allocating more resources, quite often diverting them from other agricultural products to the production of grains. This leads to the structural shift in agriculture from non-grain crops to grains. The share of grain production area has increased from 99.4 million hectares in 2003 to 110 million hectares in 2011. This structural change, which causes fluctuations in the production of non-grain agricultural products, is contributing to demand and supply imbalances of non-grain agricultural products, leading to rapid rises and falls of the prices of those non-grain agricultural products.

    The remaining two-thirds of grain production, the authorities claimed, was contributed by average grain yield growth – China’s average grain yield increased by 22% in the same period. Yet, a careful analysis of the data tends to suggest that China’s average yield increase is credited to the expansion of the country’s staple-grains (rice, wheat and maize) production.

    However while grain in the Chinese context includes not only staple-grains but also soybeans and root tubers, China’s grain support policies only focus on production of staple-grains. This has resulted in significant difference in profitability among different grain crops, in particular, between soybean and root tubers and staple-grains, which is leading to a structural shift within China’s grain production, particularly from soybean to maize.

    In the past nine years, China’s maize production area increased by 45%, accounting for 92% of the country’s total grain production areas increase. In the meantime, maize production increased by nearly 80%, making up close to 60% of the country’s total grain production increase.

    Structural shift

    As soybean is included in China’s grain production, this dramatic shift from soybean to maize production has major statistical implications. Given China’s soybean yield is only one-third of the yield of maize, the structural shift results in a significant increase in the country’s average grain yield. However, this yield increase has only statistical meanings; it is highly unrealistic for China’s grain production growth to be sustained through expansion of staple-grain production area given severe land shortage and limited space for further reduction in China’s domestic soybean production areas.

    Faced with severe food and water shortages, over-emphasising grain self-sufficiency not only brings huge economic and social costs, but also jeopardises long term sustainability of China’s agricultural sector. China will have to revise its food security strategy by further integrating itself into the global food system, and actively utilising both domestic and international resources to safeguard its food security.

    About the Author

    Zhang Hongzhou is a Senior Analyst with the China Programme at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University.

    Categories: RSIS Commentary Series

    Synopsis

    China reports remarkable increase in grain production every year. Besides concerns over the reliability of its statistics, China’s “miraculous” grain production growth may not be sustainable.

    Commentary

    ACCORDING TO China’s official statistics the country’s grain production last year amounted to nearly 590 million tonnes, the ninth consecutive year of increase in its grain production. Against the backdrop of the global food crisis, China’s grain ‘miracle’ certainly contributes to global food security.

    However, there are domestic and international concerns over the reliability of the official grain production statistics and the sustainability of China’s grain production growth.

    Reliability of China’s statistics

    Official statistics on China’s agricultural sector are known to be unreliable. Over-reporting of grain production statistics during the Great Leap Forward period led to catastrophic famine and China’s over-reporting of its fisheries production in the late 1990s caused wide international concerns. Hence, it is not surprising that China’s current “Grain Miracle” is doubted. For several reasons, concerns over China’s recent grain production statistics are not unfounded.

    Firstly, China’s phenomenal grain production growth has been achieved in the period of notable decline of arable land, both in quantity and quality; rapid outflow of rural labour force as well as severe environmental pollution. Coincidentally, while China is celebrating the “grain miracle”, the country’s grain imports also reached a new historical high. In 2012, China’s grain imports reached 80 million tonnes, representing 14% of the domestic grain production in 2012. In the meantime, China imported nearly 14 million tonnes of staple grains (rice wheat and corn), a 156% increase over imports in the previous year.

    This dramatic increase in grain imports, including of rice, wheat and corn, soybeans and tuber crops, inevitably invites questions on the reliability of China’s grain statistics. Lastly, the Chinese authority’s reluctance to release its grain reserve data further contributes to doubts over its grain production statistics. Western media reports suggested that China had massively over-reported its grain production.

    To be fair, given China’s huge size and the fragmented nature of its agricultural sector, collecting agricultural statistics is inherently an extremely challenging task. And as grain issues are highly politicised in China, local government officials are inclined to exaggerate their grain production, which could lead to over-reporting of grain production at the national level.

    Sustainability of China’s grain production

    Notwithstanding concerns over the reliability of China’s statistics, it is undeniable that the country’s grain sector has made remarkable achievement in recent years for the simple reason that China has been almost unscathed by the global food crisis in 2008 and the dramatic rise of global food prices in the last two years. Still, an important question is the sustainability of China’s grain production capability. Towards this end, it is crucial to understand the contributing factors to China’s grain production miracle in recent years.

    China’s grain production increase is partially attributed to the expansion of grain production areas. From 2004 to 2012, China’s grain production area has increased by 12%, contributing to 32% of the country’s grain production increase. Since 2004, China has introduced a variety of policies such as the Direct Grain Subsidy to stimulate the country’s grain production. These policies together with dramatic rise of the rural labour cost have resulted in a significant shift in China’s agriculture production structure.

    Farmers respond to the government’s stimulus policies by allocating more resources, quite often diverting them from other agricultural products to the production of grains. This leads to the structural shift in agriculture from non-grain crops to grains. The share of grain production area has increased from 99.4 million hectares in 2003 to 110 million hectares in 2011. This structural change, which causes fluctuations in the production of non-grain agricultural products, is contributing to demand and supply imbalances of non-grain agricultural products, leading to rapid rises and falls of the prices of those non-grain agricultural products.

    The remaining two-thirds of grain production, the authorities claimed, was contributed by average grain yield growth – China’s average grain yield increased by 22% in the same period. Yet, a careful analysis of the data tends to suggest that China’s average yield increase is credited to the expansion of the country’s staple-grains (rice, wheat and maize) production.

    However while grain in the Chinese context includes not only staple-grains but also soybeans and root tubers, China’s grain support policies only focus on production of staple-grains. This has resulted in significant difference in profitability among different grain crops, in particular, between soybean and root tubers and staple-grains, which is leading to a structural shift within China’s grain production, particularly from soybean to maize.

    In the past nine years, China’s maize production area increased by 45%, accounting for 92% of the country’s total grain production areas increase. In the meantime, maize production increased by nearly 80%, making up close to 60% of the country’s total grain production increase.

    Structural shift

    As soybean is included in China’s grain production, this dramatic shift from soybean to maize production has major statistical implications. Given China’s soybean yield is only one-third of the yield of maize, the structural shift results in a significant increase in the country’s average grain yield. However, this yield increase has only statistical meanings; it is highly unrealistic for China’s grain production growth to be sustained through expansion of staple-grain production area given severe land shortage and limited space for further reduction in China’s domestic soybean production areas.

    Faced with severe food and water shortages, over-emphasising grain self-sufficiency not only brings huge economic and social costs, but also jeopardises long term sustainability of China’s agricultural sector. China will have to revise its food security strategy by further integrating itself into the global food system, and actively utilising both domestic and international resources to safeguard its food security.

    About the Author

    Zhang Hongzhou is a Senior Analyst with the China Programme at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University.

    Categories: RSIS Commentary Series

    Popular Links

    About RSISResearch ProgrammesGraduate EducationPublicationsEventsAdmissionsCareersVideo/Audio ChannelRSIS Intranet

    Connect with Us

    rsis.ntu
    rsis_ntu
    rsisntu
    rsisvideocast
    school/rsis-ntu
    rsis.sg
    rsissg
    RSIS
    RSS
    Subscribe to RSIS Publications
    Subscribe to RSIS Events

    Getting to RSIS

    Nanyang Technological University
    Block S4, Level B3,
    50 Nanyang Avenue,
    Singapore 639798

    Click here for direction to RSIS

    Get in Touch

      Copyright © S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. All rights reserved.
      Privacy Statement / Terms of Use
      Help us improve

        Rate your experience with this website
        123456
        Not satisfiedVery satisfied
        What did you like?
        0/255 characters
        What can be improved?
        0/255 characters
        Your email
        Please enter a valid email.
        Thank you for your feedback.
        This site uses cookies to offer you a better browsing experience. By continuing, you are agreeing to the use of cookies on your device as described in our privacy policy. Learn more
        OK
        Latest Book
        more info