Back
About RSIS
Introduction
Building the Foundations
Welcome Message
Board of Governors
Staff Profiles
Executive Deputy Chairman’s Office
Dean’s Office
Management
Distinguished Fellows
Faculty and Research
Associate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research Analysts
Visiting Fellows
Adjunct Fellows
Administrative Staff
Honours and Awards for RSIS Staff and Students
RSIS Endowment Fund
Endowed Professorships
Career Opportunities
Getting to RSIS
Research
Research Centres
Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)
Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS)
Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)
International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
Research Programmes
National Security Studies Programme (NSSP)
Social Cohesion Research Programme (SCRP)
Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
Other Research
Future Issues and Technology Cluster
Research@RSIS
Science and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
Graduate Education
Graduate Programmes Office
Exchange Partners and Programmes
How to Apply
Financial Assistance
Meet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other events
RSIS Alumni
Outreach
Global Networks
About Global Networks
RSIS Alumni
International Programmes
About International Programmes
Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)
Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)
International Conference on Cohesive Societies (ICCS)
International Strategy Forum-Asia (ISF-Asia)
Executive Education
About Executive Education
SRP Executive Programme
Terrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
Public Education
About Public Education
Publications
RSIS Publications
Annual Reviews
Books
Bulletins and Newsletters
RSIS Commentary Series
Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
Commemorative / Event Reports
Future Issues
IDSS Papers
Interreligious Relations
Monographs
NTS Insight
Policy Reports
Working Papers
External Publications
Authored Books
Journal Articles
Edited Books
Chapters in Edited Books
Policy Reports
Working Papers
Op-Eds
Glossary of Abbreviations
Policy-relevant Articles Given RSIS Award
RSIS Publications for the Year
External Publications for the Year
Media
News Releases
Speeches
Video/Audio Channel
Events
Contact Us
S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies Think Tank and Graduate School Ponder The Improbable Since 1966
Nanyang Technological University Nanyang Technological University
  • About RSIS
      IntroductionBuilding the FoundationsWelcome MessageBoard of GovernorsHonours and Awards for RSIS Staff and StudentsRSIS Endowment FundEndowed ProfessorshipsCareer OpportunitiesGetting to RSIS
      Staff ProfilesExecutive Deputy Chairman’s OfficeDean’s OfficeManagementDistinguished FellowsFaculty and ResearchAssociate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research AnalystsVisiting FellowsAdjunct FellowsAdministrative Staff
  • Research
      Research CentresCentre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS)Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
      Research ProgrammesNational Security Studies Programme (NSSP)Social Cohesion Research Programme (SCRP)Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
      Other ResearchFuture Issues and Technology ClusterResearch@RSISScience and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
  • Graduate Education
      Graduate Programmes OfficeExchange Partners and ProgrammesHow to ApplyFinancial AssistanceMeet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other eventsRSIS Alumni
  • Outreach
      Global NetworksAbout Global NetworksRSIS Alumni
      International ProgrammesAbout International ProgrammesAsia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)International Conference on Cohesive Societies (ICCS)International Strategy Forum-Asia (ISF-Asia)
      Executive EducationAbout Executive EducationSRP Executive ProgrammeTerrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
      Public EducationAbout Public Education
  • Publications
      RSIS PublicationsAnnual ReviewsBooksBulletins and NewslettersRSIS Commentary SeriesCounter Terrorist Trends and AnalysesCommemorative / Event ReportsFuture IssuesIDSS PapersInterreligious RelationsMonographsNTS InsightPolicy ReportsWorking Papers
      External PublicationsAuthored BooksJournal ArticlesEdited BooksChapters in Edited BooksPolicy ReportsWorking PapersOp-Eds
      Glossary of AbbreviationsPolicy-relevant Articles Given RSIS AwardRSIS Publications for the YearExternal Publications for the Year
  • Media
      News ReleasesSpeechesVideo/Audio Channel
  • Events
  • Contact Us
    • Connect with Us

      rsis.ntu
      rsis_ntu
      rsisntu
      rsisvideocast
      school/rsis-ntu
      rsis.sg
      rsissg
      RSIS
      RSS
      Subscribe to RSIS Publications
      Subscribe to RSIS Events

      Getting to RSIS

      Nanyang Technological University
      Block S4, Level B3,
      50 Nanyang Avenue,
      Singapore 639798

      Click here for direction to RSIS
Connect
Search
  • RSIS
  • Publication
  • RSIS Publications
  • CO13040 | Civil war in Syria: The Spillover Threat
  • Annual Reviews
  • Books
  • Bulletins and Newsletters
  • RSIS Commentary Series
  • Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
  • Commemorative / Event Reports
  • Future Issues
  • IDSS Papers
  • Interreligious Relations
  • Monographs
  • NTS Insight
  • Policy Reports
  • Working Papers

CO13040 | Civil war in Syria: The Spillover Threat
James M. Dorsey

06 March 2013

download pdf

Synopsis

A groundswell of Syrian refugees pouring into Jordan threatens to increase social and political tension as a result of greater claims to limited resources and differing perceptions of refugees’ rights and obligations. The risk for Jordan is heightened by the fact that it could upset King Abdullah’s cautious reform policy aimed at preventing widespread discontent from morphing into a popular revolt.

Commentary

THE UNENDING flow of Syrian refugees into Jordan has placed acute pressure on the kingdom’s ability to cope with the crisis. It threatens to increase social and political tension as a result of increased claims to limited resources and differing perceptions of refugees’ rights and obligations.

In Za’atari, the Syrian refugee camp in a desert just south of the Jordanian-Syrian border, there are 110,000 refugees from the brutal civil war between Bashar al-Assad and his opponents or about a quarter of the total number of Syrians in Jordan. This water-starved nation has seen its population grow by about eight percent as a result of the refugee influx. Jordanian and United Nations estimates suggest that the Syrian population could increase to 600,000 by April and up to a million by the end of the year.

A sense of entitlement

Consequently Jordan is facing an acute water crisis brought about by increasing demand for water by the refugees. Jordanian aid workers complain that the Syrians have little concept of water conservation, a sensitive issue. The Syrians see no problem in their bringing more water trucks to the camp. Underlying the exchange is the sense of entitlement among Syrian soccer players among the refugees that reflects the refugees’ belief that they are paying with their blood for being abandoned and betrayed by Jordan and the Arab world and the international community.

“This is not just a struggle for freedom in Syria, it’s a struggle for freedom for the Arabs,” said a Syrian soccer player without any sense of gratitude to his hosts. A soccer coach adds:”We would rather die than be humiliated; putting us in the middle of the desert is a humiliation.”

The concern about the potential fall-out of mounting claims on limited resources coupled with regular clashes between refugees and security forces in Za’atari, and growing worry that militant Islamists are emerging as a dominant resistance force, has prompted a review of Jordan’s policy that could increasingly rope it into the conflict.

Convinced that the Assad regime is trying to destabiise Jordan by targetting the Dera’a region in southern Syria and forcing its residents to flee across the border, Jordanian officials are looking for ways to help Syrian civilians stay on their side of the border. At the same time, they are preparing for a potential opening of the flood gates should rebel forces gain control of crossing points on the Syrian-Jordanian border.

Funnelling arms

Senior officials in King Abdullah’s court pore over detailed maps seeking to figure out ways of establishing a safe zone inside Syria similar to that created by Turkey on its border 30 kilometers inside Syria. The zone serves as a safe haven for refugees fleeing Aleppo and other confrontation points in the north of the country. That is a more difficult undertaking in southern Syria with Damascus close by as the focal point of a make-or-break battle between the rebels and Assad’s forces.

As a result, Jordan has quietly started allowing arms funded by Saudi Arabia and others to reach the rebels through its territory in a bid to strengthen rebel forces in Damascus and the south. It hopes that they will contribute to stemming the exodus as well as redress the balance between Islamist militants and moderates within the armed resistance.

Amid an 80% drop in trade with Syria and reduced transit trade to Europe and the Gulf, and increased shipping costs for Jordanian exports, the potential for rising social tension is enhanced by the pain of austerity measures promised by the government to maintain the support of the International Monetary Fund for Jordan’s economic reforms and stepped up budgetary pressure as a result of more people benefitting from subsidised pricing of bread, electricity and gas and greater stress on education and health care. Already schools are forced to revert to a double shift system abandoned a decade ago while officials predict power blackouts in the near future.

Past the breaking point

The potential for increased social tension in Jordan is fuelled by a sense among both officials and the public that Jordan as the host of the largest number of refugees in the region is paying the price for what they see as reckless Saudi and Qatari support for the more militant opposition forces. Some Gulf states moreover have yet to live up to their pledges to help Jordan fund the cost of the refugee influx.

Back in Za’atari, the Syrian coach alongside UN agencies and international and Jordanian NGOs including the Asian Football Development Project, employ soccer to reduce tensions, focus energies, empower conservative women from rural Syria and forge a sense of community in a makeshift town that ranks among the country’s top four urban centres and has already witnessed damage of hundreds of thousands of dollars  as a result of vandalism.

With frustration prompting refugees to bite the hand that feeds them and irritation mounting among Jordanians as King Abdullah seeks to manage external threats and domestic discontent, Jordanian planning minister Jafar Abed Hassan voices a concern among officials and the public alike: “We’ve passed the breaking point. I don’t see who is going to provide answers.”

About the Author

James M. Dorsey is Senior Fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, co-director of the Institute of Fan Culture of the University of Würzburg, and the author of The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer blog.

Categories: RSIS Commentary Series / Conflict and Stability / Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

Synopsis

A groundswell of Syrian refugees pouring into Jordan threatens to increase social and political tension as a result of greater claims to limited resources and differing perceptions of refugees’ rights and obligations. The risk for Jordan is heightened by the fact that it could upset King Abdullah’s cautious reform policy aimed at preventing widespread discontent from morphing into a popular revolt.

Commentary

THE UNENDING flow of Syrian refugees into Jordan has placed acute pressure on the kingdom’s ability to cope with the crisis. It threatens to increase social and political tension as a result of increased claims to limited resources and differing perceptions of refugees’ rights and obligations.

In Za’atari, the Syrian refugee camp in a desert just south of the Jordanian-Syrian border, there are 110,000 refugees from the brutal civil war between Bashar al-Assad and his opponents or about a quarter of the total number of Syrians in Jordan. This water-starved nation has seen its population grow by about eight percent as a result of the refugee influx. Jordanian and United Nations estimates suggest that the Syrian population could increase to 600,000 by April and up to a million by the end of the year.

A sense of entitlement

Consequently Jordan is facing an acute water crisis brought about by increasing demand for water by the refugees. Jordanian aid workers complain that the Syrians have little concept of water conservation, a sensitive issue. The Syrians see no problem in their bringing more water trucks to the camp. Underlying the exchange is the sense of entitlement among Syrian soccer players among the refugees that reflects the refugees’ belief that they are paying with their blood for being abandoned and betrayed by Jordan and the Arab world and the international community.

“This is not just a struggle for freedom in Syria, it’s a struggle for freedom for the Arabs,” said a Syrian soccer player without any sense of gratitude to his hosts. A soccer coach adds:”We would rather die than be humiliated; putting us in the middle of the desert is a humiliation.”

The concern about the potential fall-out of mounting claims on limited resources coupled with regular clashes between refugees and security forces in Za’atari, and growing worry that militant Islamists are emerging as a dominant resistance force, has prompted a review of Jordan’s policy that could increasingly rope it into the conflict.

Convinced that the Assad regime is trying to destabiise Jordan by targetting the Dera’a region in southern Syria and forcing its residents to flee across the border, Jordanian officials are looking for ways to help Syrian civilians stay on their side of the border. At the same time, they are preparing for a potential opening of the flood gates should rebel forces gain control of crossing points on the Syrian-Jordanian border.

Funnelling arms

Senior officials in King Abdullah’s court pore over detailed maps seeking to figure out ways of establishing a safe zone inside Syria similar to that created by Turkey on its border 30 kilometers inside Syria. The zone serves as a safe haven for refugees fleeing Aleppo and other confrontation points in the north of the country. That is a more difficult undertaking in southern Syria with Damascus close by as the focal point of a make-or-break battle between the rebels and Assad’s forces.

As a result, Jordan has quietly started allowing arms funded by Saudi Arabia and others to reach the rebels through its territory in a bid to strengthen rebel forces in Damascus and the south. It hopes that they will contribute to stemming the exodus as well as redress the balance between Islamist militants and moderates within the armed resistance.

Amid an 80% drop in trade with Syria and reduced transit trade to Europe and the Gulf, and increased shipping costs for Jordanian exports, the potential for rising social tension is enhanced by the pain of austerity measures promised by the government to maintain the support of the International Monetary Fund for Jordan’s economic reforms and stepped up budgetary pressure as a result of more people benefitting from subsidised pricing of bread, electricity and gas and greater stress on education and health care. Already schools are forced to revert to a double shift system abandoned a decade ago while officials predict power blackouts in the near future.

Past the breaking point

The potential for increased social tension in Jordan is fuelled by a sense among both officials and the public that Jordan as the host of the largest number of refugees in the region is paying the price for what they see as reckless Saudi and Qatari support for the more militant opposition forces. Some Gulf states moreover have yet to live up to their pledges to help Jordan fund the cost of the refugee influx.

Back in Za’atari, the Syrian coach alongside UN agencies and international and Jordanian NGOs including the Asian Football Development Project, employ soccer to reduce tensions, focus energies, empower conservative women from rural Syria and forge a sense of community in a makeshift town that ranks among the country’s top four urban centres and has already witnessed damage of hundreds of thousands of dollars  as a result of vandalism.

With frustration prompting refugees to bite the hand that feeds them and irritation mounting among Jordanians as King Abdullah seeks to manage external threats and domestic discontent, Jordanian planning minister Jafar Abed Hassan voices a concern among officials and the public alike: “We’ve passed the breaking point. I don’t see who is going to provide answers.”

About the Author

James M. Dorsey is Senior Fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, co-director of the Institute of Fan Culture of the University of Würzburg, and the author of The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer blog.

Categories: RSIS Commentary Series / Conflict and Stability

Popular Links

About RSISResearch ProgrammesGraduate EducationPublicationsEventsAdmissionsCareersVideo/Audio ChannelRSIS Intranet

Connect with Us

rsis.ntu
rsis_ntu
rsisntu
rsisvideocast
school/rsis-ntu
rsis.sg
rsissg
RSIS
RSS
Subscribe to RSIS Publications
Subscribe to RSIS Events

Getting to RSIS

Nanyang Technological University
Block S4, Level B3,
50 Nanyang Avenue,
Singapore 639798

Click here for direction to RSIS

Get in Touch

    Copyright © S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. All rights reserved.
    Privacy Statement / Terms of Use
    Help us improve

      Rate your experience with this website
      123456
      Not satisfiedVery satisfied
      What did you like?
      0/255 characters
      What can be improved?
      0/255 characters
      Your email
      Please enter a valid email.
      Thank you for your feedback.
      This site uses cookies to offer you a better browsing experience. By continuing, you are agreeing to the use of cookies on your device as described in our privacy policy. Learn more
      OK
      Latest Book
      more info