Back
About RSIS
Introduction
Building the Foundations
Welcome Message
Board of Governors
Staff Profiles
Executive Deputy Chairman’s Office
Dean’s Office
Management
Distinguished Fellows
Faculty and Research
Associate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research Analysts
Visiting Fellows
Adjunct Fellows
Administrative Staff
Honours and Awards for RSIS Staff and Students
RSIS Endowment Fund
Endowed Professorships
Career Opportunities
Getting to RSIS
Research
Research Centres
Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)
Centre of Excellence for National Security
Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)
International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
Research Programmes
National Security Studies Programme (NSSP)
Social Cohesion Research Programme (SCRP)
Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
Other Research
Future Issues and Technology Cluster
Research@RSIS
Science and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
Graduate Education
Graduate Programmes Office
Exchange Partners and Programmes
How to Apply
Financial Assistance
Meet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other events
RSIS Alumni
Outreach
Global Networks
About Global Networks
RSIS Alumni
Executive Education
About Executive Education
SRP Executive Programme
Terrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
International Programmes
About International Programmes
Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)
Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)
International Conference on Cohesive Societies (ICCS)
International Strategy Forum-Asia (ISF-Asia)
Publications
RSIS Publications
Annual Reviews
Books
Bulletins and Newsletters
RSIS Commentary Series
Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
Commemorative / Event Reports
Future Issues
IDSS Papers
Interreligious Relations
Monographs
NTS Insight
Policy Reports
Working Papers
External Publications
Authored Books
Journal Articles
Edited Books
Chapters in Edited Books
Policy Reports
Working Papers
Op-Eds
Glossary of Abbreviations
Policy-relevant Articles Given RSIS Award
RSIS Publications for the Year
External Publications for the Year
Media
Cohesive Societies
Sustainable Security
Other Resource Pages
News Releases
Speeches
Video/Audio Channel
External Podcasts
Events
Contact Us
S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies Think Tank and Graduate School Ponder The Improbable Since 1966
Nanyang Technological University Nanyang Technological University
  • About RSIS
      IntroductionBuilding the FoundationsWelcome MessageBoard of GovernorsHonours and Awards for RSIS Staff and StudentsRSIS Endowment FundEndowed ProfessorshipsCareer OpportunitiesGetting to RSIS
      Staff ProfilesExecutive Deputy Chairman’s OfficeDean’s OfficeManagementDistinguished FellowsFaculty and ResearchAssociate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research AnalystsVisiting FellowsAdjunct FellowsAdministrative Staff
  • Research
      Research CentresCentre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)Centre of Excellence for National SecurityInstitute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
      Research ProgrammesNational Security Studies Programme (NSSP)Social Cohesion Research Programme (SCRP)Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
      Other ResearchFuture Issues and Technology ClusterResearch@RSISScience and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
  • Graduate Education
      Graduate Programmes OfficeExchange Partners and ProgrammesHow to ApplyFinancial AssistanceMeet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other eventsRSIS Alumni
  • Outreach
      Global NetworksAbout Global NetworksRSIS Alumni
      Executive EducationAbout Executive EducationSRP Executive ProgrammeTerrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
      International ProgrammesAbout International ProgrammesAsia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)International Conference on Cohesive Societies (ICCS)International Strategy Forum-Asia (ISF-Asia)
  • Publications
      RSIS PublicationsAnnual ReviewsBooksBulletins and NewslettersRSIS Commentary SeriesCounter Terrorist Trends and AnalysesCommemorative / Event ReportsFuture IssuesIDSS PapersInterreligious RelationsMonographsNTS InsightPolicy ReportsWorking Papers
      External PublicationsAuthored BooksJournal ArticlesEdited BooksChapters in Edited BooksPolicy ReportsWorking PapersOp-Eds
      Glossary of AbbreviationsPolicy-relevant Articles Given RSIS AwardRSIS Publications for the YearExternal Publications for the Year
  • Media
      Cohesive SocietiesSustainable SecurityOther Resource PagesNews ReleasesSpeechesVideo/Audio ChannelExternal Podcasts
  • Events
  • Contact Us
    • Connect with Us

      rsis.ntu
      rsis_ntu
      rsisntu
      rsisvideocast
      school/rsis-ntu
      rsis.sg
      rsissg
      RSIS
      RSS
      Subscribe to RSIS Publications
      Subscribe to RSIS Events

      Getting to RSIS

      Nanyang Technological University
      Block S4, Level B3,
      50 Nanyang Avenue,
      Singapore 639798

      Click here for direction to RSIS

      Get in Touch

    Connect
    Search
    • RSIS
    • Publication
    • RSIS Publications
    • CO13135 | Stalemate in Afghanistan Talks: Uncertainty Looms
    • Annual Reviews
    • Books
    • Bulletins and Newsletters
    • RSIS Commentary Series
    • Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
    • Commemorative / Event Reports
    • Future Issues
    • IDSS Papers
    • Interreligious Relations
    • Monographs
    • NTS Insight
    • Policy Reports
    • Working Papers

    CO13135 | Stalemate in Afghanistan Talks: Uncertainty Looms
    Sajjad Ashraf

    19 July 2013

    download pdf

    Synopsis

    While US–Taliban talks are stalemated before they even began, the Taliban are confident of victory inside Afghanistan. The US seeks to balance its residual force after 2014 with a peaceful withdrawal.

    Commentary

    THE US Department of State (DoS) recently released its Country Reports on Terrorism 2012. While generally favourable in its assessment of Singapore, the report does take issue with the level of contribution from Singapore security agencies in the areas of intelligence and law enforcement cooperation.THE DOHA talks proposed between the United States and Taliban on peaceful settlement in Afghanistan have become stalemated, possibly aborted, before the talks even begin. The impasse over a protocol issue: the name and flag of the Taliban political office, is a reflection of the larger conflict and reminder of the difficulties that lie ahead.

    Reports from Washington indicate that President Barack Obama is considering a complete American withdrawal by end of 2014. While various parties to the conflict trade accusations of duplicity and bad faith, the world awaits in trepidation whether there will be a negotiated settlement to the decades old Afghan conflict.

    Taliban’s growing legitimacy

    While the Taliban gained some international legitimacy with the announcement of American willingness to talk to them, the opening of the office and even if the negotiations ever begin, are unlikely to change the nature of war inside Afghanistan.

    Doha symbolises several missed chances of ending the war earlier. During the 2005 Asian Security Conference (Shangri-la Dialogue) in Singapore, when General Jamshed Ayaz, President, Institute of Regional Studies in Islamabad suggested talking to the Taliban, he was met with ridicule. Similarly, in April 2007 Kurt Beck, the head of the German Social Democratic Party was scorned as ‘clueless’ by Chancellor Angela Merkel when he suggested talking to the Taliban.

    At the Bonn Conference in December 2011, President Hamid Karzai scuttled the imminent announcement of Taliban-US talks. The US, which first accepted talking to the “good Taliban”, is now compelled to negotiate with their nemesis. The costs of this delay are enormous.

    Despite claims to the contrary a study released by the Bundeswehr – Germany’s military, at the end of May reports that the number of attacks on troops and civilians saw a year-on-year jump of some 25 percent in 2012. The victories and the West’s weariness of the war have made Taliban more confident that they can finally win the battle of wits against the foreign forces mainly represented by the US.

    The US-led plan of more than doubling the size of Afghan forces to 352, 000 quickly has resulted in poor selection, severe loss of training quality leading to battlefield defeats when facing the motivated and hardened Taliban fighters, according to a US military video.

    Karzai’s growing irrelevance

    The Taliban know that the US need for an orderly withdrawal by end 2014 compels Washington to negotiate with them. The Taliban’s approach therefore, is to completely disregard Karzai – the weakest player in the peace process. That makes him irrelevant but the very process of Doha negotiations, if it takes off, will eventually lead to his irrelevance.

    Mr. Karzai is a lame duck in a bind. He is wary of American intentions, which is why he does not want direct talks between the US and the Taliban. He needs the presence of American forces after 2014 also to shore up the successors he leaves behind. The Taliban will not acquiesce to this arrangement.

    The Americans who are in a “we are getting out; make our departure easier” mode know if they allow Karzai to stop the Taliban from entering the political process, he jeopardises orderly American withdrawal. In that situation the American decision makers will jettison Karzai to get their troops home safe.

    For now American interests are met keeping Karzai insecure to the extent where he is compelled to agree on leaving behind sufficient American forces and sign the status of forces terms with the United States. As the recent videoconference between Presidents Obama and Karzai seems to have made little headway in resolving the impasse, the US will balance its desire to maintain residual force after 2014 with America’s need for peaceful withdrawal.

    Uncertain future

    With daring Taliban activity even inside Kabul’s Red Zone, Kabul’s structures are creaking. “Once American troops are withdrawn, the existing government will collapse,” says William Polk a veteran US foreign policy commentator. People associated with the current regime are attempting to get their families out and consequently property prices are falling in Kabul, confirms Tino Weibezahl the head of Kabul office of Konrad Adenauer Foundation.

    Much of the Western world fails to appreciate that in a country where no foreign invasion has ever been able to hold, the Taliban represent resistance to attempts to westernise a society strongly rooted in its culture and traditions. By firing up yearning for freedom they have maintained a psychological grip over the Afghan population.

    By providing an effective underground governance structure in much of Afghanistan, “the seeds of their return were planted long ago,” says Gérard Challand, the French expert in armed conflict studies, a regular visitor to Afghanistan.

    With imminent American withdrawal by end 2014 most Afghanis are now attuned to the coming reality that the Taliban will outlast the US presence, challenge the corrupt and fractured US-installed administration in Kabul and eventually prevail.  Afghanistan is set for a period of uncertainty in the interim.

    About the Author

    Sajjad Ashraf is an adjunct professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore and a visiting senior research fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore. He served as Pakistan’s High Commissioner to Singapore 2004-2008.

    Categories: RSIS Commentary Series

    Synopsis

    While US–Taliban talks are stalemated before they even began, the Taliban are confident of victory inside Afghanistan. The US seeks to balance its residual force after 2014 with a peaceful withdrawal.

    Commentary

    THE US Department of State (DoS) recently released its Country Reports on Terrorism 2012. While generally favourable in its assessment of Singapore, the report does take issue with the level of contribution from Singapore security agencies in the areas of intelligence and law enforcement cooperation.THE DOHA talks proposed between the United States and Taliban on peaceful settlement in Afghanistan have become stalemated, possibly aborted, before the talks even begin. The impasse over a protocol issue: the name and flag of the Taliban political office, is a reflection of the larger conflict and reminder of the difficulties that lie ahead.

    Reports from Washington indicate that President Barack Obama is considering a complete American withdrawal by end of 2014. While various parties to the conflict trade accusations of duplicity and bad faith, the world awaits in trepidation whether there will be a negotiated settlement to the decades old Afghan conflict.

    Taliban’s growing legitimacy

    While the Taliban gained some international legitimacy with the announcement of American willingness to talk to them, the opening of the office and even if the negotiations ever begin, are unlikely to change the nature of war inside Afghanistan.

    Doha symbolises several missed chances of ending the war earlier. During the 2005 Asian Security Conference (Shangri-la Dialogue) in Singapore, when General Jamshed Ayaz, President, Institute of Regional Studies in Islamabad suggested talking to the Taliban, he was met with ridicule. Similarly, in April 2007 Kurt Beck, the head of the German Social Democratic Party was scorned as ‘clueless’ by Chancellor Angela Merkel when he suggested talking to the Taliban.

    At the Bonn Conference in December 2011, President Hamid Karzai scuttled the imminent announcement of Taliban-US talks. The US, which first accepted talking to the “good Taliban”, is now compelled to negotiate with their nemesis. The costs of this delay are enormous.

    Despite claims to the contrary a study released by the Bundeswehr – Germany’s military, at the end of May reports that the number of attacks on troops and civilians saw a year-on-year jump of some 25 percent in 2012. The victories and the West’s weariness of the war have made Taliban more confident that they can finally win the battle of wits against the foreign forces mainly represented by the US.

    The US-led plan of more than doubling the size of Afghan forces to 352, 000 quickly has resulted in poor selection, severe loss of training quality leading to battlefield defeats when facing the motivated and hardened Taliban fighters, according to a US military video.

    Karzai’s growing irrelevance

    The Taliban know that the US need for an orderly withdrawal by end 2014 compels Washington to negotiate with them. The Taliban’s approach therefore, is to completely disregard Karzai – the weakest player in the peace process. That makes him irrelevant but the very process of Doha negotiations, if it takes off, will eventually lead to his irrelevance.

    Mr. Karzai is a lame duck in a bind. He is wary of American intentions, which is why he does not want direct talks between the US and the Taliban. He needs the presence of American forces after 2014 also to shore up the successors he leaves behind. The Taliban will not acquiesce to this arrangement.

    The Americans who are in a “we are getting out; make our departure easier” mode know if they allow Karzai to stop the Taliban from entering the political process, he jeopardises orderly American withdrawal. In that situation the American decision makers will jettison Karzai to get their troops home safe.

    For now American interests are met keeping Karzai insecure to the extent where he is compelled to agree on leaving behind sufficient American forces and sign the status of forces terms with the United States. As the recent videoconference between Presidents Obama and Karzai seems to have made little headway in resolving the impasse, the US will balance its desire to maintain residual force after 2014 with America’s need for peaceful withdrawal.

    Uncertain future

    With daring Taliban activity even inside Kabul’s Red Zone, Kabul’s structures are creaking. “Once American troops are withdrawn, the existing government will collapse,” says William Polk a veteran US foreign policy commentator. People associated with the current regime are attempting to get their families out and consequently property prices are falling in Kabul, confirms Tino Weibezahl the head of Kabul office of Konrad Adenauer Foundation.

    Much of the Western world fails to appreciate that in a country where no foreign invasion has ever been able to hold, the Taliban represent resistance to attempts to westernise a society strongly rooted in its culture and traditions. By firing up yearning for freedom they have maintained a psychological grip over the Afghan population.

    By providing an effective underground governance structure in much of Afghanistan, “the seeds of their return were planted long ago,” says Gérard Challand, the French expert in armed conflict studies, a regular visitor to Afghanistan.

    With imminent American withdrawal by end 2014 most Afghanis are now attuned to the coming reality that the Taliban will outlast the US presence, challenge the corrupt and fractured US-installed administration in Kabul and eventually prevail.  Afghanistan is set for a period of uncertainty in the interim.

    About the Author

    Sajjad Ashraf is an adjunct professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore and a visiting senior research fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore. He served as Pakistan’s High Commissioner to Singapore 2004-2008.

    Categories: RSIS Commentary Series

    Popular Links

    About RSISResearch ProgrammesGraduate EducationPublicationsEventsAdmissionsCareersVideo/Audio ChannelRSIS Intranet

    Connect with Us

    rsis.ntu
    rsis_ntu
    rsisntu
    rsisvideocast
    school/rsis-ntu
    rsis.sg
    rsissg
    RSIS
    RSS
    Subscribe to RSIS Publications
    Subscribe to RSIS Events

    Getting to RSIS

    Nanyang Technological University
    Block S4, Level B3,
    50 Nanyang Avenue,
    Singapore 639798

    Click here for direction to RSIS

    Get in Touch

      Copyright © S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. All rights reserved.
      Privacy Statement / Terms of Use
      Help us improve

        Rate your experience with this website
        123456
        Not satisfiedVery satisfied
        What did you like?
        0/255 characters
        What can be improved?
        0/255 characters
        Your email
        Please enter a valid email.
        Thank you for your feedback.
        This site uses cookies to offer you a better browsing experience. By continuing, you are agreeing to the use of cookies on your device as described in our privacy policy. Learn more
        OK
        Latest Book
        more info