Back
About RSIS
Introduction
Building the Foundations
Welcome Message
Board of Governors
Staff Profiles
Executive Deputy Chairman’s Office
Dean’s Office
Management
Distinguished Fellows
Faculty and Research
Associate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research Analysts
Visiting Fellows
Adjunct Fellows
Administrative Staff
Honours and Awards for RSIS Staff and Students
RSIS Endowment Fund
Endowed Professorships
Career Opportunities
Getting to RSIS
Research
Research Centres
Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)
Centre of Excellence for National Security
Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)
International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
Research Programmes
National Security Studies Programme (NSSP)
Social Cohesion Research Programme (SCRP)
Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
Other Research
Future Issues and Technology Cluster
Research@RSIS
Science and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
Graduate Education
Graduate Programmes Office
Exchange Partners and Programmes
How to Apply
Financial Assistance
Meet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other events
RSIS Alumni
Outreach
Global Networks
About Global Networks
RSIS Alumni
Executive Education
About Executive Education
SRP Executive Programme
Terrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
International Programmes
About International Programmes
Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)
Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)
International Conference on Cohesive Societies (ICCS)
International Strategy Forum-Asia (ISF-Asia)
Publications
RSIS Publications
Annual Reviews
Books
Bulletins and Newsletters
RSIS Commentary Series
Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
Commemorative / Event Reports
Future Issues
IDSS Papers
Interreligious Relations
Monographs
NTS Insight
Policy Reports
Working Papers
External Publications
Authored Books
Journal Articles
Edited Books
Chapters in Edited Books
Policy Reports
Working Papers
Op-Eds
Glossary of Abbreviations
Policy-relevant Articles Given RSIS Award
RSIS Publications for the Year
External Publications for the Year
Media
Cohesive Societies
Sustainable Security
Other Resource Pages
News Releases
Speeches
Video/Audio Channel
External Podcasts
Events
Contact Us
S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies Think Tank and Graduate School Ponder The Improbable Since 1966
Nanyang Technological University Nanyang Technological University
  • About RSIS
      IntroductionBuilding the FoundationsWelcome MessageBoard of GovernorsHonours and Awards for RSIS Staff and StudentsRSIS Endowment FundEndowed ProfessorshipsCareer OpportunitiesGetting to RSIS
      Staff ProfilesExecutive Deputy Chairman’s OfficeDean’s OfficeManagementDistinguished FellowsFaculty and ResearchAssociate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research AnalystsVisiting FellowsAdjunct FellowsAdministrative Staff
  • Research
      Research CentresCentre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)Centre of Excellence for National SecurityInstitute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
      Research ProgrammesNational Security Studies Programme (NSSP)Social Cohesion Research Programme (SCRP)Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
      Other ResearchFuture Issues and Technology ClusterResearch@RSISScience and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
  • Graduate Education
      Graduate Programmes OfficeExchange Partners and ProgrammesHow to ApplyFinancial AssistanceMeet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other eventsRSIS Alumni
  • Outreach
      Global NetworksAbout Global NetworksRSIS Alumni
      Executive EducationAbout Executive EducationSRP Executive ProgrammeTerrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
      International ProgrammesAbout International ProgrammesAsia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)International Conference on Cohesive Societies (ICCS)International Strategy Forum-Asia (ISF-Asia)
  • Publications
      RSIS PublicationsAnnual ReviewsBooksBulletins and NewslettersRSIS Commentary SeriesCounter Terrorist Trends and AnalysesCommemorative / Event ReportsFuture IssuesIDSS PapersInterreligious RelationsMonographsNTS InsightPolicy ReportsWorking Papers
      External PublicationsAuthored BooksJournal ArticlesEdited BooksChapters in Edited BooksPolicy ReportsWorking PapersOp-Eds
      Glossary of AbbreviationsPolicy-relevant Articles Given RSIS AwardRSIS Publications for the YearExternal Publications for the Year
  • Media
      Cohesive SocietiesSustainable SecurityOther Resource PagesNews ReleasesSpeechesVideo/Audio ChannelExternal Podcasts
  • Events
  • Contact Us
    • Connect with Us

      rsis.ntu
      rsis_ntu
      rsisntu
      rsisvideocast
      school/rsis-ntu
      rsis.sg
      rsissg
      RSIS
      RSS
      Subscribe to RSIS Publications
      Subscribe to RSIS Events

      Getting to RSIS

      Nanyang Technological University
      Block S4, Level B3,
      50 Nanyang Avenue,
      Singapore 639798

      Click here for direction to RSIS

      Get in Touch

    Connect
    Search
    • RSIS
    • Publication
    • RSIS Publications
    • CO13136 | The US Bogeyman in Post-coup Egypt
    • Annual Reviews
    • Books
    • Bulletins and Newsletters
    • RSIS Commentary Series
    • Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
    • Commemorative / Event Reports
    • Future Issues
    • IDSS Papers
    • Interreligious Relations
    • Monographs
    • NTS Insight
    • Policy Reports
    • Working Papers

    CO13136 | The US Bogeyman in Post-coup Egypt
    James M. Dorsey

    22 July 2013

    download pdf

    Synopsis

    The military overthrow of President Mohammed Morsi has presented the Obama administration with a dilemma. While the US saw its tacit backing for the Saudi-backed military intervention as a way of steering Egypt towards a more consensual transition to democracy, the military viewed its toppling of Morsi as an opportunity to deal a body blow to the Muslim Brotherhood. Consequently the US has become the bogeyman of both the revolutionary youth movement and the Brothers.

    Commentary

    THE SAUDI-supported military overthrow of Egyptian president Mohammed Morsi on 3 July 2013 following massive demonstrations against him throughout Cairo and Egypt presented the United States with a dilemma. The Obama administration was hard-pressed to deflect the perception of US’ tacit support for the coup while calling for an inclusive electoral process that would enable the Muslim Brotherhood to contest again for parliamentary and presidential seats which they had been elected to before.

    The US refusal to call the ouster of Morsi a coup, combined with its long-standing financial assistance to various pro-democracy groups, was perceived as proof that the US backed efforts to create an illiberal democracy in Egypt.

    Between democracy and stability

    Such an outcome would prevent the return to power of Islamists who would challenge the military’s efforts to contain the wave of change sweeping across the Middle East and North Africa. Such a nuanced US message is hard to convey in a zero-sum environment where anti-Morsi forces see the Morsi government as not inclusive while the Muslim Brotherhood view Morsi’s overthrow as illegal.

    The US reaction to the Egypt coup shows that its policy hinges on two ideas: democracy and stability, which constitutes the dilemma. As a result this perpetually causes it problems in the region. Moreover it has limited options because the Saudis are countering the efforts of any potential cut-off of US aid while what constitutes US power has changed. A small but significant sign of this change is that both the Brotherhood and the Tamarud (Rebel) youth movement that had petitioned Morsi’s resignation refused to meet the US Deputy Secretary of State William Burns when he visited Cairo last week; he could only meet the military leaders.

    The US parted ways with Saudi Arabia on Egypt when the military coupled its toppling of Morsi with a crackdown on the Brotherhood, with mass arrests, legal proceedings, targeting of Brotherhood-affiliated businesses and closure of Islamist media. The US tacitly agreed to the removal of Morsi but not a witchhunt against the Brotherhood which will lead to an illiberal democracy at best, and further volatility rather than a way out of the crisis.

    The mass protest by the Brotherhood as well as its resolve to fight the coup and what it sees as the illegal ouster of Morsi in the streets of Cairo and other Egyptian cities demonstrates that it may be down but it is certainly not out. The crackdown as well as the nature of the military-approved roadmap for Egypt’s return to an elected government guarantees that the country will be at best a guided democracy – restricted or controlled behind-the-scenes by the military.

    Ignore the economy at your peril 

    The Obama administration’s message is further called into question by the fact that its support for pro-democracy groups included aid to non-governmental organisations (NGOs) that served as fronts for anti-Morsi politicians and even a former US-based police officer who advocated violence. The US position is likely to be complicated as the broad anti-Morsi coalition — whose left-wing, liberal, Salafi, pro-ancien regime and youth wings agree on little else besides Morsi’s downfall — inevitably falls apart.

    With the exception of the supporters of former autocrat, Hosni Mubarak, who was toppled by a popular revolt in March 2011, few members of the coalition are likely to be happy with a government that may well roll back hard-fought freedoms acquired two years ago.

    Initial indications from the interim government suggest a return to Mubarak-era economics that sparked the uprising in the first place. Anti-Morsi forces have failed to heed a key lesson from Morsi’s failure: ignore the economy at your peril. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait – Gulf states hostile to the Brotherhood – have thrown the military and the government a life line with US$12 billion in immediate aid. This has allowed it to entertain rejecting, like its predecessor, a US$4.8 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan that would have forced it to introduce the unpopular reforms needed to tackle the economy’s structural problems.

    A no-win situation

    The US’ dilemma is indicative of the contradiction between the Obama administration’s rhetoric and its policy as well as its struggle to balance lofty ideals — promotion of democracy and human rights — with perceived short-term interests. Wholehearted support for change in the Middle East and North Africa would put the US at odds with almost all its Arab allies that are governed by repressive, autocratic leaders and could endanger continued Egyptian adherence to the peace treaty with Israel.

    The contradictions mean that the US in effect responds to developments on the ground on a case-by-case basis. By definition, that ambiguity makes it a target against the backdrop of a policy that for decades saw autocrats as guarantors of stability at the expense of increasingly disenfranchised and discontented populace seeking social justice and greater freedom.

    US options in Egypt are limited. Saudi Arabia has already pledged to compensate Egypt should the US cut off its US$1.5 billion in primarily military aid. Moreover, US power is globally reduced by the fact that the world has changed. It no longer deals primarily with dependent, poor nations playing both ends of the cold war. These countries have become largely middle-income nations, and have alternative options in a multi-polar world. As a result the US faces a no-win situation in Egypt.

    About the Author

    James M. Dorsey is Senior Fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, co-director of the Institute of Fan Culture of the University of Würzburg and the author of the blog, The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer.

    Categories: RSIS Commentary Series / International Politics and Security / Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

    Synopsis

    The military overthrow of President Mohammed Morsi has presented the Obama administration with a dilemma. While the US saw its tacit backing for the Saudi-backed military intervention as a way of steering Egypt towards a more consensual transition to democracy, the military viewed its toppling of Morsi as an opportunity to deal a body blow to the Muslim Brotherhood. Consequently the US has become the bogeyman of both the revolutionary youth movement and the Brothers.

    Commentary

    THE SAUDI-supported military overthrow of Egyptian president Mohammed Morsi on 3 July 2013 following massive demonstrations against him throughout Cairo and Egypt presented the United States with a dilemma. The Obama administration was hard-pressed to deflect the perception of US’ tacit support for the coup while calling for an inclusive electoral process that would enable the Muslim Brotherhood to contest again for parliamentary and presidential seats which they had been elected to before.

    The US refusal to call the ouster of Morsi a coup, combined with its long-standing financial assistance to various pro-democracy groups, was perceived as proof that the US backed efforts to create an illiberal democracy in Egypt.

    Between democracy and stability

    Such an outcome would prevent the return to power of Islamists who would challenge the military’s efforts to contain the wave of change sweeping across the Middle East and North Africa. Such a nuanced US message is hard to convey in a zero-sum environment where anti-Morsi forces see the Morsi government as not inclusive while the Muslim Brotherhood view Morsi’s overthrow as illegal.

    The US reaction to the Egypt coup shows that its policy hinges on two ideas: democracy and stability, which constitutes the dilemma. As a result this perpetually causes it problems in the region. Moreover it has limited options because the Saudis are countering the efforts of any potential cut-off of US aid while what constitutes US power has changed. A small but significant sign of this change is that both the Brotherhood and the Tamarud (Rebel) youth movement that had petitioned Morsi’s resignation refused to meet the US Deputy Secretary of State William Burns when he visited Cairo last week; he could only meet the military leaders.

    The US parted ways with Saudi Arabia on Egypt when the military coupled its toppling of Morsi with a crackdown on the Brotherhood, with mass arrests, legal proceedings, targeting of Brotherhood-affiliated businesses and closure of Islamist media. The US tacitly agreed to the removal of Morsi but not a witchhunt against the Brotherhood which will lead to an illiberal democracy at best, and further volatility rather than a way out of the crisis.

    The mass protest by the Brotherhood as well as its resolve to fight the coup and what it sees as the illegal ouster of Morsi in the streets of Cairo and other Egyptian cities demonstrates that it may be down but it is certainly not out. The crackdown as well as the nature of the military-approved roadmap for Egypt’s return to an elected government guarantees that the country will be at best a guided democracy – restricted or controlled behind-the-scenes by the military.

    Ignore the economy at your peril 

    The Obama administration’s message is further called into question by the fact that its support for pro-democracy groups included aid to non-governmental organisations (NGOs) that served as fronts for anti-Morsi politicians and even a former US-based police officer who advocated violence. The US position is likely to be complicated as the broad anti-Morsi coalition — whose left-wing, liberal, Salafi, pro-ancien regime and youth wings agree on little else besides Morsi’s downfall — inevitably falls apart.

    With the exception of the supporters of former autocrat, Hosni Mubarak, who was toppled by a popular revolt in March 2011, few members of the coalition are likely to be happy with a government that may well roll back hard-fought freedoms acquired two years ago.

    Initial indications from the interim government suggest a return to Mubarak-era economics that sparked the uprising in the first place. Anti-Morsi forces have failed to heed a key lesson from Morsi’s failure: ignore the economy at your peril. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait – Gulf states hostile to the Brotherhood – have thrown the military and the government a life line with US$12 billion in immediate aid. This has allowed it to entertain rejecting, like its predecessor, a US$4.8 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan that would have forced it to introduce the unpopular reforms needed to tackle the economy’s structural problems.

    A no-win situation

    The US’ dilemma is indicative of the contradiction between the Obama administration’s rhetoric and its policy as well as its struggle to balance lofty ideals — promotion of democracy and human rights — with perceived short-term interests. Wholehearted support for change in the Middle East and North Africa would put the US at odds with almost all its Arab allies that are governed by repressive, autocratic leaders and could endanger continued Egyptian adherence to the peace treaty with Israel.

    The contradictions mean that the US in effect responds to developments on the ground on a case-by-case basis. By definition, that ambiguity makes it a target against the backdrop of a policy that for decades saw autocrats as guarantors of stability at the expense of increasingly disenfranchised and discontented populace seeking social justice and greater freedom.

    US options in Egypt are limited. Saudi Arabia has already pledged to compensate Egypt should the US cut off its US$1.5 billion in primarily military aid. Moreover, US power is globally reduced by the fact that the world has changed. It no longer deals primarily with dependent, poor nations playing both ends of the cold war. These countries have become largely middle-income nations, and have alternative options in a multi-polar world. As a result the US faces a no-win situation in Egypt.

    About the Author

    James M. Dorsey is Senior Fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, co-director of the Institute of Fan Culture of the University of Würzburg and the author of the blog, The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer.

    Categories: RSIS Commentary Series / International Politics and Security

    Popular Links

    About RSISResearch ProgrammesGraduate EducationPublicationsEventsAdmissionsCareersVideo/Audio ChannelRSIS Intranet

    Connect with Us

    rsis.ntu
    rsis_ntu
    rsisntu
    rsisvideocast
    school/rsis-ntu
    rsis.sg
    rsissg
    RSIS
    RSS
    Subscribe to RSIS Publications
    Subscribe to RSIS Events

    Getting to RSIS

    Nanyang Technological University
    Block S4, Level B3,
    50 Nanyang Avenue,
    Singapore 639798

    Click here for direction to RSIS

    Get in Touch

      Copyright © S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. All rights reserved.
      Privacy Statement / Terms of Use
      Help us improve

        Rate your experience with this website
        123456
        Not satisfiedVery satisfied
        What did you like?
        0/255 characters
        What can be improved?
        0/255 characters
        Your email
        Please enter a valid email.
        Thank you for your feedback.
        This site uses cookies to offer you a better browsing experience. By continuing, you are agreeing to the use of cookies on your device as described in our privacy policy. Learn more
        OK
        Latest Book
        more info