Back
About RSIS
Introduction
Building the Foundations
Welcome Message
Board of Governors
Staff Profiles
Executive Deputy Chairman’s Office
Dean’s Office
Management
Distinguished Fellows
Faculty and Research
Associate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research Analysts
Visiting Fellows
Adjunct Fellows
Administrative Staff
Honours and Awards for RSIS Staff and Students
RSIS Endowment Fund
Endowed Professorships
Career Opportunities
Getting to RSIS
Research
Research Centres
Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)
Centre of Excellence for National Security
Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)
International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
Research Programmes
National Security Studies Programme (NSSP)
Social Cohesion Research Programme (SCRP)
Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
Other Research
Future Issues and Technology Cluster
Research@RSIS
Science and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
Graduate Education
Graduate Programmes Office
Exchange Partners and Programmes
How to Apply
Financial Assistance
Meet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other events
RSIS Alumni
Outreach
Global Networks
About Global Networks
RSIS Alumni
Executive Education
About Executive Education
SRP Executive Programme
Terrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
International Programmes
About International Programmes
Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)
Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)
International Conference on Cohesive Societies (ICCS)
International Strategy Forum-Asia (ISF-Asia)
Publications
RSIS Publications
Annual Reviews
Books
Bulletins and Newsletters
RSIS Commentary Series
Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
Commemorative / Event Reports
Future Issues
IDSS Papers
Interreligious Relations
Monographs
NTS Insight
Policy Reports
Working Papers
External Publications
Authored Books
Journal Articles
Edited Books
Chapters in Edited Books
Policy Reports
Working Papers
Op-Eds
Glossary of Abbreviations
Policy-relevant Articles Given RSIS Award
RSIS Publications for the Year
External Publications for the Year
Media
Cohesive Societies
Sustainable Security
Other Resource Pages
News Releases
Speeches
Video/Audio Channel
External Podcasts
Events
Contact Us
S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies Think Tank and Graduate School Ponder The Improbable Since 1966
Nanyang Technological University Nanyang Technological University
  • About RSIS
      IntroductionBuilding the FoundationsWelcome MessageBoard of GovernorsHonours and Awards for RSIS Staff and StudentsRSIS Endowment FundEndowed ProfessorshipsCareer OpportunitiesGetting to RSIS
      Staff ProfilesExecutive Deputy Chairman’s OfficeDean’s OfficeManagementDistinguished FellowsFaculty and ResearchAssociate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research AnalystsVisiting FellowsAdjunct FellowsAdministrative Staff
  • Research
      Research CentresCentre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)Centre of Excellence for National SecurityInstitute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
      Research ProgrammesNational Security Studies Programme (NSSP)Social Cohesion Research Programme (SCRP)Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
      Other ResearchFuture Issues and Technology ClusterResearch@RSISScience and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
  • Graduate Education
      Graduate Programmes OfficeExchange Partners and ProgrammesHow to ApplyFinancial AssistanceMeet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other eventsRSIS Alumni
  • Outreach
      Global NetworksAbout Global NetworksRSIS Alumni
      Executive EducationAbout Executive EducationSRP Executive ProgrammeTerrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
      International ProgrammesAbout International ProgrammesAsia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)International Conference on Cohesive Societies (ICCS)International Strategy Forum-Asia (ISF-Asia)
  • Publications
      RSIS PublicationsAnnual ReviewsBooksBulletins and NewslettersRSIS Commentary SeriesCounter Terrorist Trends and AnalysesCommemorative / Event ReportsFuture IssuesIDSS PapersInterreligious RelationsMonographsNTS InsightPolicy ReportsWorking Papers
      External PublicationsAuthored BooksJournal ArticlesEdited BooksChapters in Edited BooksPolicy ReportsWorking PapersOp-Eds
      Glossary of AbbreviationsPolicy-relevant Articles Given RSIS AwardRSIS Publications for the YearExternal Publications for the Year
  • Media
      Cohesive SocietiesSustainable SecurityOther Resource PagesNews ReleasesSpeechesVideo/Audio ChannelExternal Podcasts
  • Events
  • Contact Us
    • Connect with Us

      rsis.ntu
      rsis_ntu
      rsisntu
      rsisvideocast
      school/rsis-ntu
      rsis.sg
      rsissg
      RSIS
      RSS
      Subscribe to RSIS Publications
      Subscribe to RSIS Events

      Getting to RSIS

      Nanyang Technological University
      Block S4, Level B3,
      50 Nanyang Avenue,
      Singapore 639798

      Click here for direction to RSIS

      Get in Touch

    Connect
    Search
    • RSIS
    • Publication
    • RSIS Publications
    • CO13226 | Energy Security: Southeast Asia Revives Nuclear Power Plans
    • Annual Reviews
    • Books
    • Bulletins and Newsletters
    • RSIS Commentary Series
    • Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
    • Commemorative / Event Reports
    • Future Issues
    • IDSS Papers
    • Interreligious Relations
    • Monographs
    • NTS Insight
    • Policy Reports
    • Working Papers

    CO13226 | Energy Security: Southeast Asia Revives Nuclear Power Plans
    Barry Desker

    11 December 2013

    download pdf

    Synopsis

    Southeast Asian states are moving to push ahead with nuclear power plants in an about-turn from the focus on safety risk in the search for energy security. For Singapore, having nuclear power plants close by would represent a significant risk.

    Commentary

    AS 2014 approaches, Southeast Asian states are proceeding with plans to push ahead with nuclear power plants, supported by generous terms provided by the governments of South Korea, Japan, China, Russia and France, which would provide the technology.

    Singapore has concluded that the safety risks are too high and current technology is not advanced enough to embark on the use of nuclear power technology in Singapore. In a parliamentary statement in October 2012, the Government announced that it will not pursue the nuclear option at the present time. This makes Singapore an exception in Southeast Asia.

    Regional about-turn

    Vietnam is the most advanced with two Russian-built reactors to be completed by 2020 followed by two Japanese reactors in southern Ninh Thuan province. Another six reactors are proposed. In Thailand, two reactors are planned and four are proposed. Malaysia plans to build two reactors in coastal areas of southern Johor. Indonesia is considering smaller reactors on Bangka island and in West Kalimantan. The Philippines is debating re-commissioning a nuclear plant built in Bataan by the Westinghouse Corporation of the United States in the 1980s, but never operational because of safety concerns. It was built close to a seismic fault line near the then-dormant Mount Pinatubo and was at the centre of intensive corruption investigations.

    These developments mark a major about-turn in the region. Like the rest of the world, there was a fundamental re-thinking in Southeast Asia following the Fukushima tsunami and destruction of its nuclear power plants in March 2011. The safety risks of nuclear power led to a major shift in perceptions in developed countries. Germany took the lead in moving to close down existing nuclear power facilities. However, barely two and a half years later, the nuclear power lobby has been effective in getting governments in Southeast Asia to re-assess and to proceed with their original plans.

    The effectiveness of such lobbying occurs because of the shared perspectives of the builders of nuclear power plants attracted by the possibility of new customers to replace vanishing developed country consumers, governments keen to reduce their reliance on imported energy and domestic scientific lobbies eager to deploy cutting edge technology. The search for energy security is at the heart of the turn to nuclear energy. Although there is consumer resistance because of the fear of nuclear accidents, consumers are unorganised, with critics of nuclear power usually in civil society groups at the margins of policy making.

    Ironically, this move to nuclear energy occurs at a time when the world of energy scarcity envisaged a decade ago is being overturned by the development of clean coal technologies, shale oil and gas discoveries, the exploitation of geo-thermal and bio-fuel resources and advances in solar and wind power technology. These resources are abundantly available in Southeast Asia but there is a gap in awareness. Policy-makers are driven by mental models of a world whose future seemed clearly charted a decade ago. Sharply increasing fossil fuel prices at that time made nuclear power an attractive policy option, especially as governments had to meet the challenge of growing budget deficits with rising fuel subsidies.

    Energy security search

    Energy security is identified with energy independence, the avoidance of the need to import energy. While the cost of nuclear power remains high, the rapidly increasing exploitation of shale gas will drive down energy costs in the region, especially as Australian sources come on-stream. Clean coal technologies pioneered by China and the United States will also reduce the carbon emissions of coal-fired power plants, although there will be a time lag before widespread adoption occurs. However, the mantra of energy security helps to drive policy-makers to search for the holy grail.

    Indonesia is a classic example. Policy makers backed by the National Nuclear Energy Agency (BATAN) are pushing nuclear power despite the country’s abundant resources of coal, geo-thermal energy as well as solar and wind power. It is also a major source of bio-fuels as the world’s leading palm oil producer. While nuclear power advocates in Indonesia will take a back seat as the 2014 elections approach as it is a vote loser, expect a re-play of the 2009 scenario.

    Then, nuclear power advocates emerged soon after the elections even though it was absent from electoral debates and candidates of all parties sought to re-assure voters in central Java, a key area of political competition because of its huge population, that they did not support nuclear power.

    Since the mid-1980s, BATAN has pushed for the development of a nuclear power plant on the slopes of the Muria peninsula, a dormant volcano in a seismically active area in north central Java. Its plans were first delayed by the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis and later by the strong opposition of the local population in a newly democratic Indonesia. BATAN is now contemplating smaller nuclear plants in Bangka island, just south of Batam, and in West Kalimantan.

    However, neither proposal is cost-effective. As the main users of electricity are on Java, undersea cables would be used to transmit the power generated with a significant transmission loss. In any case, plentiful coal is available in Kalimantan and coal-fired plants using state of the art clean coal technologies are significantly cheaper to operate than nuclear power plants with the latest technology.

    Nuclear power risks

    While BATAN has been fixated with the nuclear power option in 2011, Indonesia’s deputy minister of energy and mineral resources, Widjajono Partowidagdo, noted that Indonesia was not ready to build a nuclear power plant because of the level of corruption and weak supervision in the country. Indonesia’s asal bapak senang (keep the boss happy) bureaucratic culture is a deterrent to developing a safety culture. Indonesia is not alone.

    Significantly, Japan’s Nuclear Accident Independent Investigation Commission (NAICC) report cited in the Japanese Diet’s report on the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster noted that Japanese cultural conventions such as ‘reflexive obedience’, ‘stick with the programme’ insular perspectives, cliquish behaviour and the tendency not to question authority could have an impact on safety management and governance. Such attitudes also characterise Southeast Asian societies beyond Indonesia and highlight a major risk as programmes for the development of nuclear power plants move ahead.

    For Singapore, the commissioning of nuclear power plants in southern Johor or Bangka would represent a significant risk, even if these sites are stable from the seismic perspective. Although advocates of nuclear power technology, especially the exporters of nuclear power plants, argue that the technology used will be more advanced than in the Fukushima reactors, they have not focused on Southeast Asia’s bureaucratic culture of obedience and deference as well as the willingness to take short cuts and compromise on quality and efficiency.

    Interestingly, Widjajono said in the same comment that a nuclear power plant may be feasible on the island of Batam if built and managed in cooperation with Singapore. However, even in Singapore, similar problems of deference, lack of oversight and cutbacks on maintenance can occur as the failings of our MRT system demonstrated in 2011-12.

    About the Author

    Barry Desker is Dean of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (NTS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.

    Categories: RSIS Commentary Series / Energy Security

    Synopsis

    Southeast Asian states are moving to push ahead with nuclear power plants in an about-turn from the focus on safety risk in the search for energy security. For Singapore, having nuclear power plants close by would represent a significant risk.

    Commentary

    AS 2014 approaches, Southeast Asian states are proceeding with plans to push ahead with nuclear power plants, supported by generous terms provided by the governments of South Korea, Japan, China, Russia and France, which would provide the technology.

    Singapore has concluded that the safety risks are too high and current technology is not advanced enough to embark on the use of nuclear power technology in Singapore. In a parliamentary statement in October 2012, the Government announced that it will not pursue the nuclear option at the present time. This makes Singapore an exception in Southeast Asia.

    Regional about-turn

    Vietnam is the most advanced with two Russian-built reactors to be completed by 2020 followed by two Japanese reactors in southern Ninh Thuan province. Another six reactors are proposed. In Thailand, two reactors are planned and four are proposed. Malaysia plans to build two reactors in coastal areas of southern Johor. Indonesia is considering smaller reactors on Bangka island and in West Kalimantan. The Philippines is debating re-commissioning a nuclear plant built in Bataan by the Westinghouse Corporation of the United States in the 1980s, but never operational because of safety concerns. It was built close to a seismic fault line near the then-dormant Mount Pinatubo and was at the centre of intensive corruption investigations.

    These developments mark a major about-turn in the region. Like the rest of the world, there was a fundamental re-thinking in Southeast Asia following the Fukushima tsunami and destruction of its nuclear power plants in March 2011. The safety risks of nuclear power led to a major shift in perceptions in developed countries. Germany took the lead in moving to close down existing nuclear power facilities. However, barely two and a half years later, the nuclear power lobby has been effective in getting governments in Southeast Asia to re-assess and to proceed with their original plans.

    The effectiveness of such lobbying occurs because of the shared perspectives of the builders of nuclear power plants attracted by the possibility of new customers to replace vanishing developed country consumers, governments keen to reduce their reliance on imported energy and domestic scientific lobbies eager to deploy cutting edge technology. The search for energy security is at the heart of the turn to nuclear energy. Although there is consumer resistance because of the fear of nuclear accidents, consumers are unorganised, with critics of nuclear power usually in civil society groups at the margins of policy making.

    Ironically, this move to nuclear energy occurs at a time when the world of energy scarcity envisaged a decade ago is being overturned by the development of clean coal technologies, shale oil and gas discoveries, the exploitation of geo-thermal and bio-fuel resources and advances in solar and wind power technology. These resources are abundantly available in Southeast Asia but there is a gap in awareness. Policy-makers are driven by mental models of a world whose future seemed clearly charted a decade ago. Sharply increasing fossil fuel prices at that time made nuclear power an attractive policy option, especially as governments had to meet the challenge of growing budget deficits with rising fuel subsidies.

    Energy security search

    Energy security is identified with energy independence, the avoidance of the need to import energy. While the cost of nuclear power remains high, the rapidly increasing exploitation of shale gas will drive down energy costs in the region, especially as Australian sources come on-stream. Clean coal technologies pioneered by China and the United States will also reduce the carbon emissions of coal-fired power plants, although there will be a time lag before widespread adoption occurs. However, the mantra of energy security helps to drive policy-makers to search for the holy grail.

    Indonesia is a classic example. Policy makers backed by the National Nuclear Energy Agency (BATAN) are pushing nuclear power despite the country’s abundant resources of coal, geo-thermal energy as well as solar and wind power. It is also a major source of bio-fuels as the world’s leading palm oil producer. While nuclear power advocates in Indonesia will take a back seat as the 2014 elections approach as it is a vote loser, expect a re-play of the 2009 scenario.

    Then, nuclear power advocates emerged soon after the elections even though it was absent from electoral debates and candidates of all parties sought to re-assure voters in central Java, a key area of political competition because of its huge population, that they did not support nuclear power.

    Since the mid-1980s, BATAN has pushed for the development of a nuclear power plant on the slopes of the Muria peninsula, a dormant volcano in a seismically active area in north central Java. Its plans were first delayed by the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis and later by the strong opposition of the local population in a newly democratic Indonesia. BATAN is now contemplating smaller nuclear plants in Bangka island, just south of Batam, and in West Kalimantan.

    However, neither proposal is cost-effective. As the main users of electricity are on Java, undersea cables would be used to transmit the power generated with a significant transmission loss. In any case, plentiful coal is available in Kalimantan and coal-fired plants using state of the art clean coal technologies are significantly cheaper to operate than nuclear power plants with the latest technology.

    Nuclear power risks

    While BATAN has been fixated with the nuclear power option in 2011, Indonesia’s deputy minister of energy and mineral resources, Widjajono Partowidagdo, noted that Indonesia was not ready to build a nuclear power plant because of the level of corruption and weak supervision in the country. Indonesia’s asal bapak senang (keep the boss happy) bureaucratic culture is a deterrent to developing a safety culture. Indonesia is not alone.

    Significantly, Japan’s Nuclear Accident Independent Investigation Commission (NAICC) report cited in the Japanese Diet’s report on the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster noted that Japanese cultural conventions such as ‘reflexive obedience’, ‘stick with the programme’ insular perspectives, cliquish behaviour and the tendency not to question authority could have an impact on safety management and governance. Such attitudes also characterise Southeast Asian societies beyond Indonesia and highlight a major risk as programmes for the development of nuclear power plants move ahead.

    For Singapore, the commissioning of nuclear power plants in southern Johor or Bangka would represent a significant risk, even if these sites are stable from the seismic perspective. Although advocates of nuclear power technology, especially the exporters of nuclear power plants, argue that the technology used will be more advanced than in the Fukushima reactors, they have not focused on Southeast Asia’s bureaucratic culture of obedience and deference as well as the willingness to take short cuts and compromise on quality and efficiency.

    Interestingly, Widjajono said in the same comment that a nuclear power plant may be feasible on the island of Batam if built and managed in cooperation with Singapore. However, even in Singapore, similar problems of deference, lack of oversight and cutbacks on maintenance can occur as the failings of our MRT system demonstrated in 2011-12.

    About the Author

    Barry Desker is Dean of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (NTS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.

    Categories: RSIS Commentary Series / Energy Security

    Popular Links

    About RSISResearch ProgrammesGraduate EducationPublicationsEventsAdmissionsCareersVideo/Audio ChannelRSIS Intranet

    Connect with Us

    rsis.ntu
    rsis_ntu
    rsisntu
    rsisvideocast
    school/rsis-ntu
    rsis.sg
    rsissg
    RSIS
    RSS
    Subscribe to RSIS Publications
    Subscribe to RSIS Events

    Getting to RSIS

    Nanyang Technological University
    Block S4, Level B3,
    50 Nanyang Avenue,
    Singapore 639798

    Click here for direction to RSIS

    Get in Touch

      Copyright © S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. All rights reserved.
      Privacy Statement / Terms of Use
      Help us improve

        Rate your experience with this website
        123456
        Not satisfiedVery satisfied
        What did you like?
        0/255 characters
        What can be improved?
        0/255 characters
        Your email
        Please enter a valid email.
        Thank you for your feedback.
        This site uses cookies to offer you a better browsing experience. By continuing, you are agreeing to the use of cookies on your device as described in our privacy policy. Learn more
        OK
        Latest Book
        more info