19 March 2024
Applying Antifragility to Policymaking
Executive Summary
The concept of antifragility coined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb describes a system that can thrive when exposed to disorder. This goes beyond robustness or resilience, which emphasise merely returning to the status quo after experiencing disorder. However, converting Taleb’s idea into practice and applying antifragility to policymaking is not quite straightforward, particularly where the costs of subjecting a system to disorder are high or pose a risk to human lives.
Using selected examples of Singapore’ s experience with water management, this report aims to provide a starting point for discussion of how antifragility can be meaningfully encouraged in various domains across the policymaking process. We argue that Singapore’s successful efforts to marshal its water resources in the face of existential vulnerability following independence from Malaysia provide us with a historical example of antifragility at work. The report concludes by analysing the challenges associated with operationalising antifragility across other policy domains. We offer preliminary suggestions to address the identified challenges, while acknowledging the need for further research to substantiate their efficacy.
Executive Summary
The concept of antifragility coined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb describes a system that can thrive when exposed to disorder. This goes beyond robustness or resilience, which emphasise merely returning to the status quo after experiencing disorder. However, converting Taleb’s idea into practice and applying antifragility to policymaking is not quite straightforward, particularly where the costs of subjecting a system to disorder are high or pose a risk to human lives.
Using selected examples of Singapore’ s experience with water management, this report aims to provide a starting point for discussion of how antifragility can be meaningfully encouraged in various domains across the policymaking process. We argue that Singapore’s successful efforts to marshal its water resources in the face of existential vulnerability following independence from Malaysia provide us with a historical example of antifragility at work. The report concludes by analysing the challenges associated with operationalising antifragility across other policy domains. We offer preliminary suggestions to address the identified challenges, while acknowledging the need for further research to substantiate their efficacy.
