Back
About RSIS
Introduction
Building the Foundations
Welcome Message
Board of Governors
Staff Profiles
Executive Deputy Chairman’s Office
Dean’s Office
Management
Distinguished Fellows
Faculty and Research
Associate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research Analysts
Visiting Fellows
Adjunct Fellows
Administrative Staff
Honours and Awards for RSIS Staff and Students
RSIS Endowment Fund
Endowed Professorships
Career Opportunities
Getting to RSIS
Research
Research Centres
Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)
Centre of Excellence for National Security
Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)
International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
Research Programmes
National Security Studies Programme (NSSP)
Social Cohesion Research Programme (SCRP)
Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
Other Research
Future Issues and Technology Cluster
Research@RSIS
Science and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
Graduate Education
Graduate Programmes Office
Exchange Partners and Programmes
How to Apply
Financial Assistance
Meet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other events
RSIS Alumni
Outreach
Global Networks
About Global Networks
RSIS Alumni
Executive Education
About Executive Education
SRP Executive Programme
Terrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
International Programmes
About International Programmes
Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)
Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)
International Conference on Cohesive Societies (ICCS)
International Strategy Forum-Asia (ISF-Asia)
Publications
RSIS Publications
Annual Reviews
Books
Bulletins and Newsletters
RSIS Commentary Series
Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
Commemorative / Event Reports
Future Issues
IDSS Papers
Interreligious Relations
Monographs
NTS Insight
Policy Reports
Working Papers
External Publications
Authored Books
Journal Articles
Edited Books
Chapters in Edited Books
Policy Reports
Working Papers
Op-Eds
Glossary of Abbreviations
Policy-relevant Articles Given RSIS Award
RSIS Publications for the Year
External Publications for the Year
Media
Cohesive Societies
Sustainable Security
Other Resource Pages
News Releases
Speeches
Video/Audio Channel
External Podcasts
Events
Contact Us
S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies Think Tank and Graduate School Ponder The Improbable Since 1966
Nanyang Technological University Nanyang Technological University
  • About RSIS
      IntroductionBuilding the FoundationsWelcome MessageBoard of GovernorsHonours and Awards for RSIS Staff and StudentsRSIS Endowment FundEndowed ProfessorshipsCareer OpportunitiesGetting to RSIS
      Staff ProfilesExecutive Deputy Chairman’s OfficeDean’s OfficeManagementDistinguished FellowsFaculty and ResearchAssociate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research AnalystsVisiting FellowsAdjunct FellowsAdministrative Staff
  • Research
      Research CentresCentre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)Centre of Excellence for National SecurityInstitute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
      Research ProgrammesNational Security Studies Programme (NSSP)Social Cohesion Research Programme (SCRP)Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
      Other ResearchFuture Issues and Technology ClusterResearch@RSISScience and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
  • Graduate Education
      Graduate Programmes OfficeExchange Partners and ProgrammesHow to ApplyFinancial AssistanceMeet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other eventsRSIS Alumni
  • Outreach
      Global NetworksAbout Global NetworksRSIS Alumni
      Executive EducationAbout Executive EducationSRP Executive ProgrammeTerrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
      International ProgrammesAbout International ProgrammesAsia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)International Conference on Cohesive Societies (ICCS)International Strategy Forum-Asia (ISF-Asia)
  • Publications
      RSIS PublicationsAnnual ReviewsBooksBulletins and NewslettersRSIS Commentary SeriesCounter Terrorist Trends and AnalysesCommemorative / Event ReportsFuture IssuesIDSS PapersInterreligious RelationsMonographsNTS InsightPolicy ReportsWorking Papers
      External PublicationsAuthored BooksJournal ArticlesEdited BooksChapters in Edited BooksPolicy ReportsWorking PapersOp-Eds
      Glossary of AbbreviationsPolicy-relevant Articles Given RSIS AwardRSIS Publications for the YearExternal Publications for the Year
  • Media
      Cohesive SocietiesSustainable SecurityOther Resource PagesNews ReleasesSpeechesVideo/Audio ChannelExternal Podcasts
  • Events
  • Contact Us
    • Connect with Us

      rsis.ntu
      rsis_ntu
      rsisntu
      rsisvideocast
      school/rsis-ntu
      rsis.sg
      rsissg
      RSIS
      RSS
      Subscribe to RSIS Publications
      Subscribe to RSIS Events

      Getting to RSIS

      Nanyang Technological University
      Block S4, Level B3,
      50 Nanyang Avenue,
      Singapore 639798

      Click here for direction to RSIS

      Get in Touch

    Connect
    Search
    • RSIS
    • Publication
    • RSIS Publications
    • CO18089 | Seeing Through The Fog of Trade War
    • Annual Reviews
    • Books
    • Bulletins and Newsletters
    • RSIS Commentary Series
    • Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
    • Commemorative / Event Reports
    • Future Issues
    • IDSS Papers
    • Interreligious Relations
    • Monographs
    • NTS Insight
    • Policy Reports
    • Working Papers

    CO18089 | Seeing Through The Fog of Trade War
    Evan Rogerson

    30 May 2018

    download pdf

    Synopsis

    In the US, trade policy is making the headlines, and maybe the headlines are making trade policy. Other governments need to look beyond the rhetoric and continue to work on the co-operative structures that can eventually contribute to rebuilding a broad trade consensus.

    Commentary

    LIKE BAD money driving out good, the reality TV show of the Trump administration has been driving out thoughtful conversation across the policy spectrum, trade included. Trump’s trade policies are undoubtedly more nakedly unilateral than those of his predecessors, but the underlying issues have been emerging for some time.

    For more than half a century  trade was a largely bipartisan issue in industrialised countries, support for the rules-based multilateral system established in 1948 was a given, and governments generally approached that system in a pragmatic way. It suited governments to have a system where trade issues could be handled in a relatively low-key way and to uphold the rules, in word if not always in deed.

    The Unravelling of Postwar Trade Consensus

    So, for example, they avoided pushing disputes over use of the security exception in Article 21 of the GATT to the limit, aware that to do so could break a system that remained useful to all. Disputes could be lengthy and intense, such as the US-EU banana case, but they remained essentially trade disputes, conducted within the multilateral rules.

    Seattle in 1999 showed that the politics of trade were becoming more volatile, but the events of that year had only a limited impact on policymakers. Indeed, two years later came the high point of the postwar trade consensus. The 2001 launch of the Doha Development Round was based on the assumption that opening up trading opportunities within agreed rules was beneficial for developing and developed countries alike and that the multilateral system could become more genuinely inclusive.

    As we know, it did not work out that way. One key reason was the other major event of Doha in 2001- the accession of China to the WTO. The rapid rise of China as a major trading power in the following years, and the reactions to it, showed the fragility of the Doha consensus. China’s exports to the US sustained consumer purchasing power but also fuelled anxiety about competition and deficits.

    Well before Trump, the US and other advanced economies became increasingly resistant to treating China and other emerging powers, like India, as developing countries on the same basis as poorer economies. They in turn became more defensive. This was the rock on which the last serious attempt to save the Round sank in 2008. The Doha consensus sank with it. In the ten years since, its place has been inadequately filled by a range of unilateral, bilateral and plurilateral initiatives, realised or planned, of varying quality and credibility.

    The Exploding Trade Universe

    The most significant new plurilateral initiative so far is the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) whose continuation and success despite US withdrawal was a rare item of good news. Hopes for the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) have been boosted by the success of CPTPP, though an end-year deadline still seems ambitious in view of the interests to be reconciled, not least those of India and China and their competing regional visions.

    The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), on the other hand, remains mired in a renegotiation whose goalposts appear to be in perpetual motion. Further out on the time horizon are the ASEAN trade agenda, AFTA, and the African Free Trade Agreement.

    Then there are proposals that appear to come from the political needs of the moment rather than any serious policy analysis. Talk of a Commonwealth trade agreement is the outstanding example. The chances of it going anywhere can be rated even lower than those of the US rejoining CPTPP any time soon.

    On the other hand, major bilateral agreements, particularly EU-Japan, but also EU-Canada, are important not only for their depth and the volume of trade they cover. They also position the EU to take a more outward-looking leadership role in trade policy that its leaders, especially President Macron and Chancellor Merkel, seem keen to assume.

    The Centre Cannot Hold

    After ten years of centrifugal movement the trading system is now more fractured than at any time since 1945. Negotiation has effectively moved out of the multilateral arena, and this includes the negotiation of new trade rules. This makes the “spaghetti bowl” problem that experts have long warned about a looming reality.

    Worse still, the crucial and irreplaceable function of the WTO system, the dispute settlement mechanism, is approaching crisis point over the continuing US blockage of new appointments to the Appellate Body (AB). The American position relates to a view that the system is weighted against them, which does not at all square with the fact that they have won most of their cases.

    It is hard to see how other governments can accept the kind of realignment that the US seems intent upon. All that is clear is that if the impasse is not resolved by October the AB  ̶  and hence the dispute settlement system  ̶  will no longer be able to function. This is a more serious threat to the rules-based trading system than even the rumblings of trade war.

    Rebuilding Consensus Amid Limited Options

    The options available to other governments to deal with this threat are limited. Perhaps the best hope is to agree on some superficial changes that will enable Trump to proclaim a victory, as he did with NATO.

    Beyond the immediate menaces, the long-term need is to work to rebuild a new trade consensus. It will have to bridge the industrialised/emerging economy divide, deal with key trade realities such as digital commerce and respond more effectively to social and environmental needs.

    The work that has been done in CPTPP, and is being done in RCEP, can help point the way. These negotiations have spanned a wide range of economic levels and responded to concerns that the paralysed WTO cannot take up. Keeping on with them and extending their coverage is the only alternative we have at present.

    About the Author

    Evan Rogerson is an Adjunct Senior Fellow with the Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS) at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore.

    Categories: RSIS Commentary Series / Country and Region Studies / International Political Economy / Global
    comments powered by Disqus

    Synopsis

    In the US, trade policy is making the headlines, and maybe the headlines are making trade policy. Other governments need to look beyond the rhetoric and continue to work on the co-operative structures that can eventually contribute to rebuilding a broad trade consensus.

    Commentary

    LIKE BAD money driving out good, the reality TV show of the Trump administration has been driving out thoughtful conversation across the policy spectrum, trade included. Trump’s trade policies are undoubtedly more nakedly unilateral than those of his predecessors, but the underlying issues have been emerging for some time.

    For more than half a century  trade was a largely bipartisan issue in industrialised countries, support for the rules-based multilateral system established in 1948 was a given, and governments generally approached that system in a pragmatic way. It suited governments to have a system where trade issues could be handled in a relatively low-key way and to uphold the rules, in word if not always in deed.

    The Unravelling of Postwar Trade Consensus

    So, for example, they avoided pushing disputes over use of the security exception in Article 21 of the GATT to the limit, aware that to do so could break a system that remained useful to all. Disputes could be lengthy and intense, such as the US-EU banana case, but they remained essentially trade disputes, conducted within the multilateral rules.

    Seattle in 1999 showed that the politics of trade were becoming more volatile, but the events of that year had only a limited impact on policymakers. Indeed, two years later came the high point of the postwar trade consensus. The 2001 launch of the Doha Development Round was based on the assumption that opening up trading opportunities within agreed rules was beneficial for developing and developed countries alike and that the multilateral system could become more genuinely inclusive.

    As we know, it did not work out that way. One key reason was the other major event of Doha in 2001- the accession of China to the WTO. The rapid rise of China as a major trading power in the following years, and the reactions to it, showed the fragility of the Doha consensus. China’s exports to the US sustained consumer purchasing power but also fuelled anxiety about competition and deficits.

    Well before Trump, the US and other advanced economies became increasingly resistant to treating China and other emerging powers, like India, as developing countries on the same basis as poorer economies. They in turn became more defensive. This was the rock on which the last serious attempt to save the Round sank in 2008. The Doha consensus sank with it. In the ten years since, its place has been inadequately filled by a range of unilateral, bilateral and plurilateral initiatives, realised or planned, of varying quality and credibility.

    The Exploding Trade Universe

    The most significant new plurilateral initiative so far is the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) whose continuation and success despite US withdrawal was a rare item of good news. Hopes for the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) have been boosted by the success of CPTPP, though an end-year deadline still seems ambitious in view of the interests to be reconciled, not least those of India and China and their competing regional visions.

    The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), on the other hand, remains mired in a renegotiation whose goalposts appear to be in perpetual motion. Further out on the time horizon are the ASEAN trade agenda, AFTA, and the African Free Trade Agreement.

    Then there are proposals that appear to come from the political needs of the moment rather than any serious policy analysis. Talk of a Commonwealth trade agreement is the outstanding example. The chances of it going anywhere can be rated even lower than those of the US rejoining CPTPP any time soon.

    On the other hand, major bilateral agreements, particularly EU-Japan, but also EU-Canada, are important not only for their depth and the volume of trade they cover. They also position the EU to take a more outward-looking leadership role in trade policy that its leaders, especially President Macron and Chancellor Merkel, seem keen to assume.

    The Centre Cannot Hold

    After ten years of centrifugal movement the trading system is now more fractured than at any time since 1945. Negotiation has effectively moved out of the multilateral arena, and this includes the negotiation of new trade rules. This makes the “spaghetti bowl” problem that experts have long warned about a looming reality.

    Worse still, the crucial and irreplaceable function of the WTO system, the dispute settlement mechanism, is approaching crisis point over the continuing US blockage of new appointments to the Appellate Body (AB). The American position relates to a view that the system is weighted against them, which does not at all square with the fact that they have won most of their cases.

    It is hard to see how other governments can accept the kind of realignment that the US seems intent upon. All that is clear is that if the impasse is not resolved by October the AB  ̶  and hence the dispute settlement system  ̶  will no longer be able to function. This is a more serious threat to the rules-based trading system than even the rumblings of trade war.

    Rebuilding Consensus Amid Limited Options

    The options available to other governments to deal with this threat are limited. Perhaps the best hope is to agree on some superficial changes that will enable Trump to proclaim a victory, as he did with NATO.

    Beyond the immediate menaces, the long-term need is to work to rebuild a new trade consensus. It will have to bridge the industrialised/emerging economy divide, deal with key trade realities such as digital commerce and respond more effectively to social and environmental needs.

    The work that has been done in CPTPP, and is being done in RCEP, can help point the way. These negotiations have spanned a wide range of economic levels and responded to concerns that the paralysed WTO cannot take up. Keeping on with them and extending their coverage is the only alternative we have at present.

    About the Author

    Evan Rogerson is an Adjunct Senior Fellow with the Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS) at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore.

    Categories: RSIS Commentary Series / Country and Region Studies / International Political Economy

    Popular Links

    About RSISResearch ProgrammesGraduate EducationPublicationsEventsAdmissionsCareersVideo/Audio ChannelRSIS Intranet

    Connect with Us

    rsis.ntu
    rsis_ntu
    rsisntu
    rsisvideocast
    school/rsis-ntu
    rsis.sg
    rsissg
    RSIS
    RSS
    Subscribe to RSIS Publications
    Subscribe to RSIS Events

    Getting to RSIS

    Nanyang Technological University
    Block S4, Level B3,
    50 Nanyang Avenue,
    Singapore 639798

    Click here for direction to RSIS

    Get in Touch

      Copyright © S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. All rights reserved.
      Privacy Statement / Terms of Use
      Help us improve

        Rate your experience with this website
        123456
        Not satisfiedVery satisfied
        What did you like?
        0/255 characters
        What can be improved?
        0/255 characters
        Your email
        Please enter a valid email.
        Thank you for your feedback.
        This site uses cookies to offer you a better browsing experience. By continuing, you are agreeing to the use of cookies on your device as described in our privacy policy. Learn more
        OK
        Latest Book
        more info