Back
About RSIS
Introduction
Building the Foundations
Welcome Message
Board of Governors
Staff Profiles
Executive Deputy Chairman’s Office
Dean’s Office
Management
Distinguished Fellows
Faculty and Research
Associate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research Analysts
Visiting Fellows
Adjunct Fellows
Administrative Staff
Honours and Awards for RSIS Staff and Students
RSIS Endowment Fund
Endowed Professorships
Career Opportunities
Getting to RSIS
Research
Research Centres
Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)
Centre of Excellence for National Security
Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)
International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
Research Programmes
National Security Studies Programme (NSSP)
Social Cohesion Research Programme (SCRP)
Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
Other Research
Future Issues and Technology Cluster
Research@RSIS
Science and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
Graduate Education
Graduate Programmes Office
Exchange Partners and Programmes
How to Apply
Financial Assistance
Meet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other events
RSIS Alumni
Outreach
Global Networks
About Global Networks
RSIS Alumni
Executive Education
About Executive Education
SRP Executive Programme
Terrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
International Programmes
About International Programmes
Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)
Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)
International Conference on Cohesive Societies (ICCS)
International Strategy Forum-Asia (ISF-Asia)
Publications
RSIS Publications
Annual Reviews
Books
Bulletins and Newsletters
RSIS Commentary Series
Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
Commemorative / Event Reports
Future Issues
IDSS Papers
Interreligious Relations
Monographs
NTS Insight
Policy Reports
Working Papers
External Publications
Authored Books
Journal Articles
Edited Books
Chapters in Edited Books
Policy Reports
Working Papers
Op-Eds
Glossary of Abbreviations
Policy-relevant Articles Given RSIS Award
RSIS Publications for the Year
External Publications for the Year
Media
Cohesive Societies
Sustainable Security
Other Resource Pages
News Releases
Speeches
Video/Audio Channel
External Podcasts
Events
Contact Us
S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies Think Tank and Graduate School Ponder The Improbable Since 1966
Nanyang Technological University Nanyang Technological University
  • About RSIS
      IntroductionBuilding the FoundationsWelcome MessageBoard of GovernorsHonours and Awards for RSIS Staff and StudentsRSIS Endowment FundEndowed ProfessorshipsCareer OpportunitiesGetting to RSIS
      Staff ProfilesExecutive Deputy Chairman’s OfficeDean’s OfficeManagementDistinguished FellowsFaculty and ResearchAssociate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research AnalystsVisiting FellowsAdjunct FellowsAdministrative Staff
  • Research
      Research CentresCentre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)Centre of Excellence for National SecurityInstitute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
      Research ProgrammesNational Security Studies Programme (NSSP)Social Cohesion Research Programme (SCRP)Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
      Other ResearchFuture Issues and Technology ClusterResearch@RSISScience and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
  • Graduate Education
      Graduate Programmes OfficeExchange Partners and ProgrammesHow to ApplyFinancial AssistanceMeet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other eventsRSIS Alumni
  • Outreach
      Global NetworksAbout Global NetworksRSIS Alumni
      Executive EducationAbout Executive EducationSRP Executive ProgrammeTerrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
      International ProgrammesAbout International ProgrammesAsia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)International Conference on Cohesive Societies (ICCS)International Strategy Forum-Asia (ISF-Asia)
  • Publications
      RSIS PublicationsAnnual ReviewsBooksBulletins and NewslettersRSIS Commentary SeriesCounter Terrorist Trends and AnalysesCommemorative / Event ReportsFuture IssuesIDSS PapersInterreligious RelationsMonographsNTS InsightPolicy ReportsWorking Papers
      External PublicationsAuthored BooksJournal ArticlesEdited BooksChapters in Edited BooksPolicy ReportsWorking PapersOp-Eds
      Glossary of AbbreviationsPolicy-relevant Articles Given RSIS AwardRSIS Publications for the YearExternal Publications for the Year
  • Media
      Cohesive SocietiesSustainable SecurityOther Resource PagesNews ReleasesSpeechesVideo/Audio ChannelExternal Podcasts
  • Events
  • Contact Us
    • Connect with Us

      rsis.ntu
      rsis_ntu
      rsisntu
      rsisvideocast
      school/rsis-ntu
      rsis.sg
      rsissg
      RSIS
      RSS
      Subscribe to RSIS Publications
      Subscribe to RSIS Events

      Getting to RSIS

      Nanyang Technological University
      Block S4, Level B3,
      50 Nanyang Avenue,
      Singapore 639798

      Click here for direction to RSIS

      Get in Touch

    Connect
    Search
    • RSIS
    • Publication
    • RSIS Publications
    • The Burden of COVID-19: Urgent Need for Social Safety Nets
    • Annual Reviews
    • Books
    • Bulletins and Newsletters
    • RSIS Commentary Series
    • Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
    • Commemorative / Event Reports
    • Future Issues
    • IDSS Papers
    • Interreligious Relations
    • Monographs
    • NTS Insight
    • Policy Reports
    • Working Papers

    CO20043 | The Burden of COVID-19: Urgent Need for Social Safety Nets
    Jose Ma. Luis P. Montesclaros, Mely Caballero-Anthony

    19 March 2020

    download pdf

    SYNOPSIS

    The lockdown policies to fight COVID-19 have caused massive economic disruptions, seriously affecting poorer income groups that live on a hand-to-mouth existence. Policies to keep countries safe from pandemics must come with clear and timely social safety net programmes to protect these vulnerable groups.

    COMMENTARY

    UP UNTIL 11 March 2019 when the World Health Organisation (WHO) declared COVID-19 a global pandemic, government responses mostly focused on preventing further disease spread by imposing restrictions on travel and movements of people. These border controls and lockdowns have caused tremendous economic disruptions.

    COVID-19 is bringing about a global ‘economic contagion’. In fact, G7 countries of the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom and Japan have committed ‘to do whatever it takes, using all policy tools…’ to prevent both types of global threats.

    Dire Economic Consequences

    Signs show a COVID-19-induced global economic recession is imminent, with widespread travel bans, cancellations of major events and conferences, prohibitions of mass gatherings and shutdowns of cities and other areas. The stock market prices in several major economies have plunged severely and massive job layoffs seem inevitable.

    A study by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in early March 2020 surveyed 24 Asian countries to establish the impacts of the pandemic. It found that the region stands to lose 5.7 million jobs in the best-case scenario, but this could easily balloon to 35 million jobs under what they deemed a ‘hypothetical’ worst-case scenario.

    Yet, even this worst-case scenario is conservative considering that the ADB assumed only a 50% decline in outbound tourism from China, and in tourism revenues in other developing economies in East and Southeast Asia. These did not explicitly include declines in South and Central Asian countries. It is not inconceivable then, given nationwide lockdowns and community quarantines imposed in multiple countries, for COVID-19 to cause a complete lull in travel for all countries.

    Economic effects extend beyond the tourism sector. When people do not leave their homes and spend, businesses suffer badly, leading to closures and bankruptcies. Quarantine policies affect supply chains, effectively halting factory production. COVID-19’s economic damage will likely exceed the 2% decline in domestic consumption assumed in the ADB’s study.

    Who Bears the Burden of COVID-19?

    These economic consequences are the collateral costs which society needs to pay to contain the COVID-19 threat. While the ‘greater good’ still lies in fighting the disease than in preventing recession, the problem lies in the fact that these costs are borne differently across class and income groups within countries.

    Unlike the middle class and above who may suffer some discomfort in their inability to move around, the situation is starkly different for daily-waged households and those who live from hand-to-mouth. In their case, not being able to work also means not being able to eat and meet their other basic needs. Poorer households thus face a bigger share of the burden if they do not have sufficient income to ride out the economic downturn caused by quarantine measures.

    In fact, further analysis using ADB’s data shows that the hardest hit are individuals working in lower-wage economic sectors. The two hardest hit sectors, where most job losses occur, are in the agricultural, mining and quarrying sectors (34%), followed by hotels, restaurants and other personal services sector (23%).

    In the majority of countries studied, incomes in these two sectors were well below national average; for instance, in China, agriculture, mining and quarrying wages were close to half the national average wage, while hotels, restaurants and other personal services wages were less than a third of the national average.

    Worst hit are those working in the ‘gig economy’, as well as vendors and others in the informal sector, who have little or no protection or safety nets which include income support or direct cash transfers, food aid, and healthcare.

    Helping Business and Workers

    The domino effects of COVID-19 on the health of economies have put governments in the spotlight, particularly their different approaches in dealing with health and economic concerns.

    Australia’s state of Queensland is planning to release US$16.5 million to help businesses affected by COVID-19 measures while trying to convince the larger federal government, which thinks otherwise, to do the same. In contrast, New Zealand is allocating US$5.2 billion for affected businesses, with another US$2 billion for income support and health.

    Apart from providing funding to businesses, a more challenging issue is whether governments should focus spending on expanding healthcare system capacity (for disease surveillance, mitigation, developing vaccines) or providing additional social safety nets too.

    The US previously focused on the former, with US$8.3 billion mostly for the healthcare system, but recently announced an US$850 billion – US$1 trillion budget that doubles also as an economic stimulus package that supports individuals and small businesses badly hit by the crisis.

    The UK, while previously an outlier with its ‘herd immunity’ approach, has also about-turned and in fact, already integrated US$14.5 billion to deal with the outbreak, in its annual budget. Singapore is currently mulling wage support, in addition to the initial US$2.8 billion stimulus in its annual budget. Meanwhile, Malaysia is allocating US$27 million to give US$137 per month to an estimated 33,000 employees earning below US$915 who could be forced to take unpaid leave.

    Urgently Needed: More Social Safety Nets

    Debates on whether safety net policies should be strengthened or not become moot and academic when one examines the gravity of the situation. For poorer populations, the risk of contracting or spreading COVID-19, and the painfully palpable certainty of not eating, is not a matter of choice.

    The desperation to go and find work could potentially trigger further infections, since lower-wage individuals are often concentrated in the ‘high contact’ sectors especially hotels, restaurants and other personal services. Clearly, there is a need for governments to urgently put in place safety nets now.

    It is necessary for government agencies to cooperate and collaborate with civil society to target the groups requiring immediate assistance. Business conglomerates have to join in to provide the minimum safety nets for workers while longer-term policy measures are designed and implemented. Neglecting the plight of vulnerable groups will result in heavier political and social costs in the long-term.

    About the Authors

    Jose Ma. Luis Montesclaros is Associate Research Fellow with the Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre) at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) Nanyang Technological University, Singapore (NTU), and Mely Caballero-Anthony is Professor of International Relations at RSIS and Head of the NTS Centre. This is part of a series.

    Categories: RSIS Commentary Series / Country and Region Studies / Non-Traditional Security / East Asia and Asia Pacific / South Asia / Southeast Asia and ASEAN / Global
    comments powered by Disqus

    SYNOPSIS

    The lockdown policies to fight COVID-19 have caused massive economic disruptions, seriously affecting poorer income groups that live on a hand-to-mouth existence. Policies to keep countries safe from pandemics must come with clear and timely social safety net programmes to protect these vulnerable groups.

    COMMENTARY

    UP UNTIL 11 March 2019 when the World Health Organisation (WHO) declared COVID-19 a global pandemic, government responses mostly focused on preventing further disease spread by imposing restrictions on travel and movements of people. These border controls and lockdowns have caused tremendous economic disruptions.

    COVID-19 is bringing about a global ‘economic contagion’. In fact, G7 countries of the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom and Japan have committed ‘to do whatever it takes, using all policy tools…’ to prevent both types of global threats.

    Dire Economic Consequences

    Signs show a COVID-19-induced global economic recession is imminent, with widespread travel bans, cancellations of major events and conferences, prohibitions of mass gatherings and shutdowns of cities and other areas. The stock market prices in several major economies have plunged severely and massive job layoffs seem inevitable.

    A study by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in early March 2020 surveyed 24 Asian countries to establish the impacts of the pandemic. It found that the region stands to lose 5.7 million jobs in the best-case scenario, but this could easily balloon to 35 million jobs under what they deemed a ‘hypothetical’ worst-case scenario.

    Yet, even this worst-case scenario is conservative considering that the ADB assumed only a 50% decline in outbound tourism from China, and in tourism revenues in other developing economies in East and Southeast Asia. These did not explicitly include declines in South and Central Asian countries. It is not inconceivable then, given nationwide lockdowns and community quarantines imposed in multiple countries, for COVID-19 to cause a complete lull in travel for all countries.

    Economic effects extend beyond the tourism sector. When people do not leave their homes and spend, businesses suffer badly, leading to closures and bankruptcies. Quarantine policies affect supply chains, effectively halting factory production. COVID-19’s economic damage will likely exceed the 2% decline in domestic consumption assumed in the ADB’s study.

    Who Bears the Burden of COVID-19?

    These economic consequences are the collateral costs which society needs to pay to contain the COVID-19 threat. While the ‘greater good’ still lies in fighting the disease than in preventing recession, the problem lies in the fact that these costs are borne differently across class and income groups within countries.

    Unlike the middle class and above who may suffer some discomfort in their inability to move around, the situation is starkly different for daily-waged households and those who live from hand-to-mouth. In their case, not being able to work also means not being able to eat and meet their other basic needs. Poorer households thus face a bigger share of the burden if they do not have sufficient income to ride out the economic downturn caused by quarantine measures.

    In fact, further analysis using ADB’s data shows that the hardest hit are individuals working in lower-wage economic sectors. The two hardest hit sectors, where most job losses occur, are in the agricultural, mining and quarrying sectors (34%), followed by hotels, restaurants and other personal services sector (23%).

    In the majority of countries studied, incomes in these two sectors were well below national average; for instance, in China, agriculture, mining and quarrying wages were close to half the national average wage, while hotels, restaurants and other personal services wages were less than a third of the national average.

    Worst hit are those working in the ‘gig economy’, as well as vendors and others in the informal sector, who have little or no protection or safety nets which include income support or direct cash transfers, food aid, and healthcare.

    Helping Business and Workers

    The domino effects of COVID-19 on the health of economies have put governments in the spotlight, particularly their different approaches in dealing with health and economic concerns.

    Australia’s state of Queensland is planning to release US$16.5 million to help businesses affected by COVID-19 measures while trying to convince the larger federal government, which thinks otherwise, to do the same. In contrast, New Zealand is allocating US$5.2 billion for affected businesses, with another US$2 billion for income support and health.

    Apart from providing funding to businesses, a more challenging issue is whether governments should focus spending on expanding healthcare system capacity (for disease surveillance, mitigation, developing vaccines) or providing additional social safety nets too.

    The US previously focused on the former, with US$8.3 billion mostly for the healthcare system, but recently announced an US$850 billion – US$1 trillion budget that doubles also as an economic stimulus package that supports individuals and small businesses badly hit by the crisis.

    The UK, while previously an outlier with its ‘herd immunity’ approach, has also about-turned and in fact, already integrated US$14.5 billion to deal with the outbreak, in its annual budget. Singapore is currently mulling wage support, in addition to the initial US$2.8 billion stimulus in its annual budget. Meanwhile, Malaysia is allocating US$27 million to give US$137 per month to an estimated 33,000 employees earning below US$915 who could be forced to take unpaid leave.

    Urgently Needed: More Social Safety Nets

    Debates on whether safety net policies should be strengthened or not become moot and academic when one examines the gravity of the situation. For poorer populations, the risk of contracting or spreading COVID-19, and the painfully palpable certainty of not eating, is not a matter of choice.

    The desperation to go and find work could potentially trigger further infections, since lower-wage individuals are often concentrated in the ‘high contact’ sectors especially hotels, restaurants and other personal services. Clearly, there is a need for governments to urgently put in place safety nets now.

    It is necessary for government agencies to cooperate and collaborate with civil society to target the groups requiring immediate assistance. Business conglomerates have to join in to provide the minimum safety nets for workers while longer-term policy measures are designed and implemented. Neglecting the plight of vulnerable groups will result in heavier political and social costs in the long-term.

    About the Authors

    Jose Ma. Luis Montesclaros is Associate Research Fellow with the Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre) at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) Nanyang Technological University, Singapore (NTU), and Mely Caballero-Anthony is Professor of International Relations at RSIS and Head of the NTS Centre. This is part of a series.

    Categories: RSIS Commentary Series / Country and Region Studies / Non-Traditional Security

    Popular Links

    About RSISResearch ProgrammesGraduate EducationPublicationsEventsAdmissionsCareersVideo/Audio ChannelRSIS Intranet

    Connect with Us

    rsis.ntu
    rsis_ntu
    rsisntu
    rsisvideocast
    school/rsis-ntu
    rsis.sg
    rsissg
    RSIS
    RSS
    Subscribe to RSIS Publications
    Subscribe to RSIS Events

    Getting to RSIS

    Nanyang Technological University
    Block S4, Level B3,
    50 Nanyang Avenue,
    Singapore 639798

    Click here for direction to RSIS

    Get in Touch

      Copyright © S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. All rights reserved.
      Privacy Statement / Terms of Use
      Help us improve

        Rate your experience with this website
        123456
        Not satisfiedVery satisfied
        What did you like?
        0/255 characters
        What can be improved?
        0/255 characters
        Your email
        Please enter a valid email.
        Thank you for your feedback.
        This site uses cookies to offer you a better browsing experience. By continuing, you are agreeing to the use of cookies on your device as described in our privacy policy. Learn more
        OK
        Latest Book
        more info