Back
About RSIS
Introduction
Building the Foundations
Welcome Message
Board of Governors
Staff Profiles
Executive Deputy Chairman’s Office
Dean’s Office
Management
Distinguished Fellows
Faculty and Research
Associate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research Analysts
Visiting Fellows
Adjunct Fellows
Administrative Staff
Honours and Awards for RSIS Staff and Students
RSIS Endowment Fund
Endowed Professorships
Career Opportunities
Getting to RSIS
Research
Research Centres
Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)
Centre of Excellence for National Security
Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)
International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
Research Programmes
National Security Studies Programme (NSSP)
Social Cohesion Research Programme (SCRP)
Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
Other Research
Future Issues and Technology Cluster
Research@RSIS
Science and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
Graduate Education
Graduate Programmes Office
Exchange Partners and Programmes
How to Apply
Financial Assistance
Meet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other events
RSIS Alumni
Outreach
Global Networks
About Global Networks
RSIS Alumni
Executive Education
About Executive Education
SRP Executive Programme
Terrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
International Programmes
About International Programmes
Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)
Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)
International Conference on Cohesive Societies (ICCS)
International Strategy Forum-Asia (ISF-Asia)
Publications
RSIS Publications
Annual Reviews
Books
Bulletins and Newsletters
RSIS Commentary Series
Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
Commemorative / Event Reports
Future Issues
IDSS Papers
Interreligious Relations
Monographs
NTS Insight
Policy Reports
Working Papers
External Publications
Authored Books
Journal Articles
Edited Books
Chapters in Edited Books
Policy Reports
Working Papers
Op-Eds
Glossary of Abbreviations
Policy-relevant Articles Given RSIS Award
RSIS Publications for the Year
External Publications for the Year
Media
Cohesive Societies
Sustainable Security
Other Resource Pages
News Releases
Speeches
Video/Audio Channel
External Podcasts
Events
Contact Us
S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies Think Tank and Graduate School Ponder The Improbable Since 1966
Nanyang Technological University Nanyang Technological University
  • About RSIS
      IntroductionBuilding the FoundationsWelcome MessageBoard of GovernorsHonours and Awards for RSIS Staff and StudentsRSIS Endowment FundEndowed ProfessorshipsCareer OpportunitiesGetting to RSIS
      Staff ProfilesExecutive Deputy Chairman’s OfficeDean’s OfficeManagementDistinguished FellowsFaculty and ResearchAssociate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research AnalystsVisiting FellowsAdjunct FellowsAdministrative Staff
  • Research
      Research CentresCentre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)Centre of Excellence for National SecurityInstitute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
      Research ProgrammesNational Security Studies Programme (NSSP)Social Cohesion Research Programme (SCRP)Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
      Other ResearchFuture Issues and Technology ClusterResearch@RSISScience and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
  • Graduate Education
      Graduate Programmes OfficeExchange Partners and ProgrammesHow to ApplyFinancial AssistanceMeet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other eventsRSIS Alumni
  • Outreach
      Global NetworksAbout Global NetworksRSIS Alumni
      Executive EducationAbout Executive EducationSRP Executive ProgrammeTerrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
      International ProgrammesAbout International ProgrammesAsia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)International Conference on Cohesive Societies (ICCS)International Strategy Forum-Asia (ISF-Asia)
  • Publications
      RSIS PublicationsAnnual ReviewsBooksBulletins and NewslettersRSIS Commentary SeriesCounter Terrorist Trends and AnalysesCommemorative / Event ReportsFuture IssuesIDSS PapersInterreligious RelationsMonographsNTS InsightPolicy ReportsWorking Papers
      External PublicationsAuthored BooksJournal ArticlesEdited BooksChapters in Edited BooksPolicy ReportsWorking PapersOp-Eds
      Glossary of AbbreviationsPolicy-relevant Articles Given RSIS AwardRSIS Publications for the YearExternal Publications for the Year
  • Media
      Cohesive SocietiesSustainable SecurityOther Resource PagesNews ReleasesSpeechesVideo/Audio ChannelExternal Podcasts
  • Events
  • Contact Us
    • Connect with Us

      rsis.ntu
      rsis_ntu
      rsisntu
      rsisvideocast
      school/rsis-ntu
      rsis.sg
      rsissg
      RSIS
      RSS
      Subscribe to RSIS Publications
      Subscribe to RSIS Events

      Getting to RSIS

      Nanyang Technological University
      Block S4, Level B3,
      50 Nanyang Avenue,
      Singapore 639798

      Click here for direction to RSIS

      Get in Touch

    Connect
    Search
    • RSIS
    • Publication
    • RSIS Publications
    • Malaysia’s Ageing Population: What It Means for Singapore
    • Annual Reviews
    • Books
    • Bulletins and Newsletters
    • RSIS Commentary Series
    • Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
    • Commemorative / Event Reports
    • Future Issues
    • IDSS Papers
    • Interreligious Relations
    • Monographs
    • NTS Insight
    • Policy Reports
    • Working Papers

    CO20205 | Malaysia’s Ageing Population: What It Means for Singapore
    Jose Ricardo Sto. Domingo

    01 December 2020

    download pdf

    SYNOPSIS

    Malaysia’s gradually ageing population may influence its migration flows. By 2040 and beyond, this could imply fewer migrants for a country such as Singapore, which has historically been reliant on immigrants for both its economy and its population.

    COMMENTARY

    IN MARCH 2020, the Malaysian government enforced the first of a series of Movement Control Orders (MCOs) to curb the spread of COVID-19 by restricting movement within the country and across its borders. This included the Johor-Singapore Causeway and the Malaysia-Singapore Second Link, effectively closing one of world’s busiest borders.

    Thousands of Malaysians and Singaporeans, along with businesses that rely on them, had to make difficult decisions on where they should remain in the meantime. The closing of borders by both sides has exposed both the deep personal ties and economic interdependency between the two nations.

    Cross-Border Trends

    Malaysia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hishammuddin Hussein, was quoted by The Star in July 2020, and said that between 200,000 to 250,000 people passed through these border crossings daily. In September, Johor’s Menteri Besar (Chief Minister), Hasni Mohammad, expressed deep concern for some 100,000 Malaysians, who may lose their jobs due to prolonged border closure, as reported by news outlets.

    Malaysians regularly travelled through these crossings to Singapore for work or school, while Singaporeans often visited Johor for day trips. Some Singaporeans also resided in Johor and commuted daily to Singapore. Businesses in Johor that were dependent on tourists from Singapore have been severely affected.

    Hasni also said in September that about five per cent to 10% of businesses had stopped operating in Johor due to the border closing, and some have seen revenue declines of up to 70%.

    Prolonged border control measures against COVID-19 have highlighted broader concerns for both countries’ reliance on foreign labour. Although these will likely subside along with the pandemic, both face long-term demographic trends that are harder to manage.

    Singapore’s Dependency on Malaysian Migrants

    While Malaysia is reliant on foreigners mostly for work, Singapore’s far smaller population has relied on immigration not only for its economy, but also for population growth.

    According to the United Nations, most of the migrants in Singapore are Malaysian. Based on their estimates, Malaysians in Singapore numbered 952,621 people (2019). They comprised 44.2% of Singapore’s own foreign-born population or migrant stock, which includes naturalised citizens, permanent residents, students, work pass holders and their dependents.

    The next closest to Malaysians were migrants from China at 17.6%, and Indonesia at 6.4% of Singapore’s foreign population.

    The high number of Malaysians in Singapore is likely due to proximity and cultural affinity, which makes it easier for Malaysians to integrate with Singaporeans. While Malaysians comprise the largest group of Singapore’s migrant stock, fewer Malaysians may be headed to Singapore towards 2040 and beyond, when Malaysia becomes an aged country.

    Malaysia’s Ageing Population

    Today, Malaysia is estimated to be an ageing nation, with seven per cent of its population aged 65 years old and above. A country is defined as “aged” when more than 14% of its population is 65 years old or higher. When this figure exceeds 20%, it is “super-aged”.

    By 2040, the Department of Statistics Malaysia estimated that 14.5% of its population will be 65 and older. Last month, the World Bank also released a report that estimated Malaysia to reach the aged country status by 2044. At the same time, the country’s birth rate has been below replacement levels since 2012 and continues to decline gradually.

    The UN projects Malaysia’s total fertility rate (TFR) – the average number of children born to a woman – to eventually dip to 1.731, below replacement, between 2040 to 2045.

    The country’s current population is estimated at 32.7 million people, 69.7% of which are between 15-64 years old (working age group). The next biggest group is those aged 14 years old and under (dependents), who make up 23.3% of the population. They are rounded out by those 65 years old and above (the elderly), at seven per cent.

    Nevertheless, Malaysia’s population is still relatively youthful compared to some of its ASEAN neighbours such as Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. Malaysia’s current median age is estimated at 29.2, while Singapore’s is at 41.1. By 2040, Malaysia’s median age is projected to become 38.3 years old.

    The Malaysian government has acknowledged that a gradual ageing and growing elderly population present serious long-term challenges, such as economic sustainability, retirement security, and adequacy of elder healthcare. Last September, Khazanah Research Institute released a report that stated that nearly 40% of Malaysian workers did not have retirement savings plans, while the World Bank’s November report highlighted these challenges.

    Malaysia’s Ageing and its Migration Flows

    A future elderly Malaysian population could also slow its migration flows. It would have a smaller portion of the working age, and a growing number of retirees.

    With a smaller and older workforce, demand for labour could grow in Malaysia. The Malaysian government could respond by controlling the flow of its own emigrants and make the country a more attractive option for work.

    Malaysia’s ageing population could also increase the country’s own inward migration flow. Indeed, the government has ramped up efforts to attract members of the Malaysian diaspora to return to the country and contribute to the economy. Their experiences and expertise would be valuable in terms of skills-sharing and knowledge-transfer.

    These factors could make it difficult in the future for Singapore to attract and retain Malaysian migrants, especially the young. If Singapore continues to rely on foreign workers, the government may have to raise wages and provide further benefits for Malaysians or look elsewhere to replace the potentially lost labour.

    Singapore’s Own Ageing Population

    The Singaporean government is also dealing with its own ageing population and has been exploring a combination of solutions to reduce its labour requirements and increase the employability and productivity of its elderly.

    In fact, Malaysian migrant flows to Singapore appear to have slowed down. From 1990 to 2015, UN estimates showed that Malaysian migrants in Singapore were increasing in five-year intervals. However, when compared between 2015 and 2019, UN estimates show that total migrants (including Malaysians) in Singapore actually decreased by 15.3%.

    Interestingly, Malaysian migrants decreased by 15.3% in 2019 as well. While this recent slowdown may not be due to Malaysia’s ageing population, it could contribute to a trend leading towards 2040 and beyond.

    Will Singapore Tap Other ASEAN Countries More?

    Today, re-opening the border between Singapore and Malaysia remains a pressing issue. Malaysia and Singapore initiated a Reciprocal Green Lane (RGL) and a Periodic Commuting Agreement (PCA) in August to allow some form of minimal business travel between the two countries but the numbers were a far cry from the old border traffic.

    Talks are underway between the two countries to formalise Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) for a daily commute scheme between Singapore and Johor. This could, however, take some time.

    Most states in Peninsular Malaysia were recently put under a Conditional Movement Control Order (CMCO) in November, until 6 December 2020, including Johor. However, the state’s CMCO was lifted on 21 November, and the government announced a targeted CMCO within the Batu Pahat district from 29 November to 13 December.

    For the longer term, Singapore would have to consider how its labour and population growth needs might evolve. Artificial Intelligence and automation could reduce future manpower needs. The government may also diversify sources of immigration and tap other ASEAN countries more. This would in turn require a review of the fundamental make-up of Singapore’s population – and therefore, that of its economy and society.

    About the Author

    Jose Ricardo S. Domingo is a Research Analyst with the Malaysia Programme at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore.

    Categories: RSIS Commentary Series / Country and Region Studies / International Political Economy / Non-Traditional Security / East Asia and Asia Pacific / South Asia / Southeast Asia and ASEAN / Global
    comments powered by Disqus

    SYNOPSIS

    Malaysia’s gradually ageing population may influence its migration flows. By 2040 and beyond, this could imply fewer migrants for a country such as Singapore, which has historically been reliant on immigrants for both its economy and its population.

    COMMENTARY

    IN MARCH 2020, the Malaysian government enforced the first of a series of Movement Control Orders (MCOs) to curb the spread of COVID-19 by restricting movement within the country and across its borders. This included the Johor-Singapore Causeway and the Malaysia-Singapore Second Link, effectively closing one of world’s busiest borders.

    Thousands of Malaysians and Singaporeans, along with businesses that rely on them, had to make difficult decisions on where they should remain in the meantime. The closing of borders by both sides has exposed both the deep personal ties and economic interdependency between the two nations.

    Cross-Border Trends

    Malaysia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hishammuddin Hussein, was quoted by The Star in July 2020, and said that between 200,000 to 250,000 people passed through these border crossings daily. In September, Johor’s Menteri Besar (Chief Minister), Hasni Mohammad, expressed deep concern for some 100,000 Malaysians, who may lose their jobs due to prolonged border closure, as reported by news outlets.

    Malaysians regularly travelled through these crossings to Singapore for work or school, while Singaporeans often visited Johor for day trips. Some Singaporeans also resided in Johor and commuted daily to Singapore. Businesses in Johor that were dependent on tourists from Singapore have been severely affected.

    Hasni also said in September that about five per cent to 10% of businesses had stopped operating in Johor due to the border closing, and some have seen revenue declines of up to 70%.

    Prolonged border control measures against COVID-19 have highlighted broader concerns for both countries’ reliance on foreign labour. Although these will likely subside along with the pandemic, both face long-term demographic trends that are harder to manage.

    Singapore’s Dependency on Malaysian Migrants

    While Malaysia is reliant on foreigners mostly for work, Singapore’s far smaller population has relied on immigration not only for its economy, but also for population growth.

    According to the United Nations, most of the migrants in Singapore are Malaysian. Based on their estimates, Malaysians in Singapore numbered 952,621 people (2019). They comprised 44.2% of Singapore’s own foreign-born population or migrant stock, which includes naturalised citizens, permanent residents, students, work pass holders and their dependents.

    The next closest to Malaysians were migrants from China at 17.6%, and Indonesia at 6.4% of Singapore’s foreign population.

    The high number of Malaysians in Singapore is likely due to proximity and cultural affinity, which makes it easier for Malaysians to integrate with Singaporeans. While Malaysians comprise the largest group of Singapore’s migrant stock, fewer Malaysians may be headed to Singapore towards 2040 and beyond, when Malaysia becomes an aged country.

    Malaysia’s Ageing Population

    Today, Malaysia is estimated to be an ageing nation, with seven per cent of its population aged 65 years old and above. A country is defined as “aged” when more than 14% of its population is 65 years old or higher. When this figure exceeds 20%, it is “super-aged”.

    By 2040, the Department of Statistics Malaysia estimated that 14.5% of its population will be 65 and older. Last month, the World Bank also released a report that estimated Malaysia to reach the aged country status by 2044. At the same time, the country’s birth rate has been below replacement levels since 2012 and continues to decline gradually.

    The UN projects Malaysia’s total fertility rate (TFR) – the average number of children born to a woman – to eventually dip to 1.731, below replacement, between 2040 to 2045.

    The country’s current population is estimated at 32.7 million people, 69.7% of which are between 15-64 years old (working age group). The next biggest group is those aged 14 years old and under (dependents), who make up 23.3% of the population. They are rounded out by those 65 years old and above (the elderly), at seven per cent.

    Nevertheless, Malaysia’s population is still relatively youthful compared to some of its ASEAN neighbours such as Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. Malaysia’s current median age is estimated at 29.2, while Singapore’s is at 41.1. By 2040, Malaysia’s median age is projected to become 38.3 years old.

    The Malaysian government has acknowledged that a gradual ageing and growing elderly population present serious long-term challenges, such as economic sustainability, retirement security, and adequacy of elder healthcare. Last September, Khazanah Research Institute released a report that stated that nearly 40% of Malaysian workers did not have retirement savings plans, while the World Bank’s November report highlighted these challenges.

    Malaysia’s Ageing and its Migration Flows

    A future elderly Malaysian population could also slow its migration flows. It would have a smaller portion of the working age, and a growing number of retirees.

    With a smaller and older workforce, demand for labour could grow in Malaysia. The Malaysian government could respond by controlling the flow of its own emigrants and make the country a more attractive option for work.

    Malaysia’s ageing population could also increase the country’s own inward migration flow. Indeed, the government has ramped up efforts to attract members of the Malaysian diaspora to return to the country and contribute to the economy. Their experiences and expertise would be valuable in terms of skills-sharing and knowledge-transfer.

    These factors could make it difficult in the future for Singapore to attract and retain Malaysian migrants, especially the young. If Singapore continues to rely on foreign workers, the government may have to raise wages and provide further benefits for Malaysians or look elsewhere to replace the potentially lost labour.

    Singapore’s Own Ageing Population

    The Singaporean government is also dealing with its own ageing population and has been exploring a combination of solutions to reduce its labour requirements and increase the employability and productivity of its elderly.

    In fact, Malaysian migrant flows to Singapore appear to have slowed down. From 1990 to 2015, UN estimates showed that Malaysian migrants in Singapore were increasing in five-year intervals. However, when compared between 2015 and 2019, UN estimates show that total migrants (including Malaysians) in Singapore actually decreased by 15.3%.

    Interestingly, Malaysian migrants decreased by 15.3% in 2019 as well. While this recent slowdown may not be due to Malaysia’s ageing population, it could contribute to a trend leading towards 2040 and beyond.

    Will Singapore Tap Other ASEAN Countries More?

    Today, re-opening the border between Singapore and Malaysia remains a pressing issue. Malaysia and Singapore initiated a Reciprocal Green Lane (RGL) and a Periodic Commuting Agreement (PCA) in August to allow some form of minimal business travel between the two countries but the numbers were a far cry from the old border traffic.

    Talks are underway between the two countries to formalise Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) for a daily commute scheme between Singapore and Johor. This could, however, take some time.

    Most states in Peninsular Malaysia were recently put under a Conditional Movement Control Order (CMCO) in November, until 6 December 2020, including Johor. However, the state’s CMCO was lifted on 21 November, and the government announced a targeted CMCO within the Batu Pahat district from 29 November to 13 December.

    For the longer term, Singapore would have to consider how its labour and population growth needs might evolve. Artificial Intelligence and automation could reduce future manpower needs. The government may also diversify sources of immigration and tap other ASEAN countries more. This would in turn require a review of the fundamental make-up of Singapore’s population – and therefore, that of its economy and society.

    About the Author

    Jose Ricardo S. Domingo is a Research Analyst with the Malaysia Programme at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore.

    Categories: RSIS Commentary Series / Country and Region Studies / International Political Economy / Non-Traditional Security

    Popular Links

    About RSISResearch ProgrammesGraduate EducationPublicationsEventsAdmissionsCareersVideo/Audio ChannelRSIS Intranet

    Connect with Us

    rsis.ntu
    rsis_ntu
    rsisntu
    rsisvideocast
    school/rsis-ntu
    rsis.sg
    rsissg
    RSIS
    RSS
    Subscribe to RSIS Publications
    Subscribe to RSIS Events

    Getting to RSIS

    Nanyang Technological University
    Block S4, Level B3,
    50 Nanyang Avenue,
    Singapore 639798

    Click here for direction to RSIS

    Get in Touch

      Copyright © S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. All rights reserved.
      Privacy Statement / Terms of Use
      Help us improve

        Rate your experience with this website
        123456
        Not satisfiedVery satisfied
        What did you like?
        0/255 characters
        What can be improved?
        0/255 characters
        Your email
        Please enter a valid email.
        Thank you for your feedback.
        This site uses cookies to offer you a better browsing experience. By continuing, you are agreeing to the use of cookies on your device as described in our privacy policy. Learn more
        OK
        Latest Book
        more info