Back
About RSIS
Introduction
Building the Foundations
Welcome Message
Board of Governors
Staff Profiles
Executive Deputy Chairman’s Office
Dean’s Office
Management
Distinguished Fellows
Faculty and Research
Associate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research Analysts
Visiting Fellows
Adjunct Fellows
Administrative Staff
Honours and Awards for RSIS Staff and Students
RSIS Endowment Fund
Endowed Professorships
Career Opportunities
Getting to RSIS
Research
Research Centres
Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)
Centre of Excellence for National Security
Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)
International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
Research Programmes
National Security Studies Programme (NSSP)
Social Cohesion Research Programme (SCRP)
Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
Other Research
Future Issues and Technology Cluster
Research@RSIS
Science and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
Graduate Education
Graduate Programmes Office
Exchange Partners and Programmes
How to Apply
Financial Assistance
Meet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other events
RSIS Alumni
Outreach
Global Networks
About Global Networks
RSIS Alumni
Executive Education
About Executive Education
SRP Executive Programme
Terrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
International Programmes
About International Programmes
Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)
Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)
International Conference on Cohesive Societies (ICCS)
International Strategy Forum-Asia (ISF-Asia)
Publications
RSIS Publications
Annual Reviews
Books
Bulletins and Newsletters
RSIS Commentary Series
Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
Commemorative / Event Reports
Future Issues
IDSS Papers
Interreligious Relations
Monographs
NTS Insight
Policy Reports
Working Papers
External Publications
Authored Books
Journal Articles
Edited Books
Chapters in Edited Books
Policy Reports
Working Papers
Op-Eds
Glossary of Abbreviations
Policy-relevant Articles Given RSIS Award
RSIS Publications for the Year
External Publications for the Year
Media
Cohesive Societies
Sustainable Security
Other Resource Pages
News Releases
Speeches
Video/Audio Channel
External Podcasts
Events
Contact Us
S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies Think Tank and Graduate School Ponder The Improbable Since 1966
Nanyang Technological University Nanyang Technological University
  • About RSIS
      IntroductionBuilding the FoundationsWelcome MessageBoard of GovernorsHonours and Awards for RSIS Staff and StudentsRSIS Endowment FundEndowed ProfessorshipsCareer OpportunitiesGetting to RSIS
      Staff ProfilesExecutive Deputy Chairman’s OfficeDean’s OfficeManagementDistinguished FellowsFaculty and ResearchAssociate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research AnalystsVisiting FellowsAdjunct FellowsAdministrative Staff
  • Research
      Research CentresCentre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)Centre of Excellence for National SecurityInstitute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
      Research ProgrammesNational Security Studies Programme (NSSP)Social Cohesion Research Programme (SCRP)Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
      Other ResearchFuture Issues and Technology ClusterResearch@RSISScience and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
  • Graduate Education
      Graduate Programmes OfficeExchange Partners and ProgrammesHow to ApplyFinancial AssistanceMeet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other eventsRSIS Alumni
  • Outreach
      Global NetworksAbout Global NetworksRSIS Alumni
      Executive EducationAbout Executive EducationSRP Executive ProgrammeTerrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
      International ProgrammesAbout International ProgrammesAsia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)International Conference on Cohesive Societies (ICCS)International Strategy Forum-Asia (ISF-Asia)
  • Publications
      RSIS PublicationsAnnual ReviewsBooksBulletins and NewslettersRSIS Commentary SeriesCounter Terrorist Trends and AnalysesCommemorative / Event ReportsFuture IssuesIDSS PapersInterreligious RelationsMonographsNTS InsightPolicy ReportsWorking Papers
      External PublicationsAuthored BooksJournal ArticlesEdited BooksChapters in Edited BooksPolicy ReportsWorking PapersOp-Eds
      Glossary of AbbreviationsPolicy-relevant Articles Given RSIS AwardRSIS Publications for the YearExternal Publications for the Year
  • Media
      Cohesive SocietiesSustainable SecurityOther Resource PagesNews ReleasesSpeechesVideo/Audio ChannelExternal Podcasts
  • Events
  • Contact Us
    • Connect with Us

      rsis.ntu
      rsis_ntu
      rsisntu
      rsisvideocast
      school/rsis-ntu
      rsis.sg
      rsissg
      RSIS
      RSS
      Subscribe to RSIS Publications
      Subscribe to RSIS Events

      Getting to RSIS

      Nanyang Technological University
      Block S4, Level B3,
      50 Nanyang Avenue,
      Singapore 639798

      Click here for direction to RSIS

      Get in Touch

    Connect
    Search
    • RSIS
    • Publication
    • RSIS Publications
    • Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: The Role of Airpower
    • Annual Reviews
    • Books
    • Bulletins and Newsletters
    • RSIS Commentary Series
    • Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
    • Commemorative / Event Reports
    • Future Issues
    • IDSS Papers
    • Interreligious Relations
    • Monographs
    • NTS Insight
    • Policy Reports
    • Working Papers

    CO20188 | Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: The Role of Airpower
    Ben Ho

    30 October 2020

    download pdf

    SYNOPSIS

    The ongoing war in the Nagorno-Karabakh has been notable for how airpower is deployed. What are its key features?

    COMMENTARY

    ON 27 SEPTEMBER 2020, the second Nagorno-Karabakh conflict broke out when Azerbaijan launched a ground offensive against the self-proclaimed Republic of Artsakh, supported by Armenia, in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh enclave. A month into the fighting, one can glean from it various trappings of 21st century warfare, including the extensive use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and information operations waged on social media.

    While definitive figures for combat losses for both sides are currently unavailable, it is believed that Armenia’s losses, especially in its armoured units, exceed that of Azerbaijan. This is due to no small part to the exploits of Azerbaijan’s much-vaunted UAVs. What do we make of what has transpired in the airpower realm of the conflict?

    Where are the Manned Aircraft?

    One of the integral features of the second Nagorno-Karabakh war is the limited role manned airpower has played so far. Baku has an overwhelming advantage over Yerevan in this regard, and yet the former has chosen not to capitalise on this advantage. According to The Military Balance 2020, Azerbaijan has 36 tactical jets comprising mainly SU-25 attack aircraft and fourth-generation MIG-29 fighters.

    On the other hand, only 14 SU-25s and no fighters whatsoever make up Armenia’s manned combat airpower. In addition, Armenia’s air defences consist largely of anaemic Soviet-era surface-to-air missiles like the SA-3 and SA-4 dating back to the 1960s.

    One plausible reason holding the Azeris back from deploying their manned jets is Armenia’s possession of a limited number of the more sophisticated long-range SA-10 and medium-range SA-11 anti-air systems, with the former especially noted for its range and detection capabilities. It is also worth noting that even a small quantity of these high-end assets could arguably have a deterrent value out of proportion to their numbers.

    These systems have not been deployed yet for operations as they are probably held in reserve. It is also telling that even after a number of Armenian SA-10s were reportedly damaged or destroyed by Azeri UAVs, Baku has not deployed its manned combat airpower to any significant degree After all, Azerbaijan sees a reasonable alternative to crewed aircraft in drones and their use has been making the headlines thus far.

    Advantages of UAVs

    Most airpower experts maintain that one of the key advantages unmanned aviation has over its manned counterpart is cost (in financial and human terms), and this is arguably one reason behind the almost-exclusive use of the UAVs in the second Nagorno-Karabakh war. To illustrate, the ubiquitous Turkish-made TB2 unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV) that has featured in various propaganda videos released by Baku costs about US$5 million each.

    On the other hand, an MIG-29 costs few tens of million dollars. To be sure, the payload of an MIG-29 can be equalled only by a few TB2s, though the MIG-29s are way ahead in various other attributes like speed and range.

    However, to deploy a manned jet even in the more permissive environs of the Nagorno-Karabakh war would still risk its pilot, not to mention the prodigious training time and dollars invested in him, being shot down and killed or captured. If cleverly exploited, this could lead to a propaganda coup for the opposing side.

    Think Jordanian flyer Muath Safi Yousef al-Kasasbeh whose execution by ISIS in 2015 was shown to the whole world as well as downed Allied pilots during the 1991 Gulf War. On the other hand, given their larger numbers, lower costs, and lack of a human in the cockpit, the loss of UAVs can be better tolerated.

    Harbinger of Future Warfare?

    Going forward, a number of commentators have proclaimed that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is a harbinger of future warfare. For instance, they make proclamations along the lines of UAVs being game-changing or that their exploits thus far portend a new era of warfare. These comments, usually made in inexpert journalistic terms, are slightly off the mark.

    Firstly, the drone era is already upon us. It has been so ever since the Predator UAV made its first kill during Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan in October 2001. Since then, the continued sensitivity to the loss of human pilots has accentuated the use of drones. Ditto the relatively low intensity of wars being fought during this period.

    Indeed, what has happened in the Caucasus over the past month is just another confirmation during recent times of the usefulness of drones – in permissive operating environments. These capabilities have proven their operational worth in, for instance, the September 2019 strikes on Saudi oil facilities as well as the ongoing Libyan civil war because they were given relatively free rein in the absence of significant air defences.

    That being said, Azeri UAVs have been primus inter pares in the second Nagorno-Karabakh war simply because their opponents cannot put up a decent fight. Indeed, observers have praised the performance of Baku’s Israeli-made Harop “kamikaze” drone during the war. It can stay in the air for up to six hours sniffing out any target of opportunity before attacking it in a suicide dive. The UAV might not have such luxury of time in other circumstances, especially against much more credible opposition.

    True UCAVs Some Time Away

    In a high-intensity exchange between great powers with significant counter-air capabilities, however, do not be surprised if the life expectancy of drones is measured in terms of a couple of hours, if not less. And this would be par the course until the day a true UCAV is deployed, one whose attributes equal or at least approach that of manned aircraft.

    However, this does not seem to be any time soon. Indeed, with states becoming ever more cognisant to the threat posed by UAVs, expect even lesser powers to beef up their counter-drone capabilities going forward. All in all, while the recent good performance of drones in the Caucasus shows their utility to some extent, do not read too much into it. As is often the case in extracting lessons from a particular battle or war, sui generis should be the watchword here.

    About the Author

    Ben Ho is an Associate Research Fellow with the Military Studies Programme at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore.

    Categories: RSIS Commentary Series / Conflict and Stability / Country and Region Studies / Non-Traditional Security / Central Asia / East Asia and Asia Pacific / Europe / South Asia / Southeast Asia and ASEAN
    comments powered by Disqus

    SYNOPSIS

    The ongoing war in the Nagorno-Karabakh has been notable for how airpower is deployed. What are its key features?

    COMMENTARY

    ON 27 SEPTEMBER 2020, the second Nagorno-Karabakh conflict broke out when Azerbaijan launched a ground offensive against the self-proclaimed Republic of Artsakh, supported by Armenia, in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh enclave. A month into the fighting, one can glean from it various trappings of 21st century warfare, including the extensive use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and information operations waged on social media.

    While definitive figures for combat losses for both sides are currently unavailable, it is believed that Armenia’s losses, especially in its armoured units, exceed that of Azerbaijan. This is due to no small part to the exploits of Azerbaijan’s much-vaunted UAVs. What do we make of what has transpired in the airpower realm of the conflict?

    Where are the Manned Aircraft?

    One of the integral features of the second Nagorno-Karabakh war is the limited role manned airpower has played so far. Baku has an overwhelming advantage over Yerevan in this regard, and yet the former has chosen not to capitalise on this advantage. According to The Military Balance 2020, Azerbaijan has 36 tactical jets comprising mainly SU-25 attack aircraft and fourth-generation MIG-29 fighters.

    On the other hand, only 14 SU-25s and no fighters whatsoever make up Armenia’s manned combat airpower. In addition, Armenia’s air defences consist largely of anaemic Soviet-era surface-to-air missiles like the SA-3 and SA-4 dating back to the 1960s.

    One plausible reason holding the Azeris back from deploying their manned jets is Armenia’s possession of a limited number of the more sophisticated long-range SA-10 and medium-range SA-11 anti-air systems, with the former especially noted for its range and detection capabilities. It is also worth noting that even a small quantity of these high-end assets could arguably have a deterrent value out of proportion to their numbers.

    These systems have not been deployed yet for operations as they are probably held in reserve. It is also telling that even after a number of Armenian SA-10s were reportedly damaged or destroyed by Azeri UAVs, Baku has not deployed its manned combat airpower to any significant degree After all, Azerbaijan sees a reasonable alternative to crewed aircraft in drones and their use has been making the headlines thus far.

    Advantages of UAVs

    Most airpower experts maintain that one of the key advantages unmanned aviation has over its manned counterpart is cost (in financial and human terms), and this is arguably one reason behind the almost-exclusive use of the UAVs in the second Nagorno-Karabakh war. To illustrate, the ubiquitous Turkish-made TB2 unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV) that has featured in various propaganda videos released by Baku costs about US$5 million each.

    On the other hand, an MIG-29 costs few tens of million dollars. To be sure, the payload of an MIG-29 can be equalled only by a few TB2s, though the MIG-29s are way ahead in various other attributes like speed and range.

    However, to deploy a manned jet even in the more permissive environs of the Nagorno-Karabakh war would still risk its pilot, not to mention the prodigious training time and dollars invested in him, being shot down and killed or captured. If cleverly exploited, this could lead to a propaganda coup for the opposing side.

    Think Jordanian flyer Muath Safi Yousef al-Kasasbeh whose execution by ISIS in 2015 was shown to the whole world as well as downed Allied pilots during the 1991 Gulf War. On the other hand, given their larger numbers, lower costs, and lack of a human in the cockpit, the loss of UAVs can be better tolerated.

    Harbinger of Future Warfare?

    Going forward, a number of commentators have proclaimed that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is a harbinger of future warfare. For instance, they make proclamations along the lines of UAVs being game-changing or that their exploits thus far portend a new era of warfare. These comments, usually made in inexpert journalistic terms, are slightly off the mark.

    Firstly, the drone era is already upon us. It has been so ever since the Predator UAV made its first kill during Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan in October 2001. Since then, the continued sensitivity to the loss of human pilots has accentuated the use of drones. Ditto the relatively low intensity of wars being fought during this period.

    Indeed, what has happened in the Caucasus over the past month is just another confirmation during recent times of the usefulness of drones – in permissive operating environments. These capabilities have proven their operational worth in, for instance, the September 2019 strikes on Saudi oil facilities as well as the ongoing Libyan civil war because they were given relatively free rein in the absence of significant air defences.

    That being said, Azeri UAVs have been primus inter pares in the second Nagorno-Karabakh war simply because their opponents cannot put up a decent fight. Indeed, observers have praised the performance of Baku’s Israeli-made Harop “kamikaze” drone during the war. It can stay in the air for up to six hours sniffing out any target of opportunity before attacking it in a suicide dive. The UAV might not have such luxury of time in other circumstances, especially against much more credible opposition.

    True UCAVs Some Time Away

    In a high-intensity exchange between great powers with significant counter-air capabilities, however, do not be surprised if the life expectancy of drones is measured in terms of a couple of hours, if not less. And this would be par the course until the day a true UCAV is deployed, one whose attributes equal or at least approach that of manned aircraft.

    However, this does not seem to be any time soon. Indeed, with states becoming ever more cognisant to the threat posed by UAVs, expect even lesser powers to beef up their counter-drone capabilities going forward. All in all, while the recent good performance of drones in the Caucasus shows their utility to some extent, do not read too much into it. As is often the case in extracting lessons from a particular battle or war, sui generis should be the watchword here.

    About the Author

    Ben Ho is an Associate Research Fellow with the Military Studies Programme at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore.

    Categories: RSIS Commentary Series / Conflict and Stability / Country and Region Studies / Non-Traditional Security

    Popular Links

    About RSISResearch ProgrammesGraduate EducationPublicationsEventsAdmissionsCareersVideo/Audio ChannelRSIS Intranet

    Connect with Us

    rsis.ntu
    rsis_ntu
    rsisntu
    rsisvideocast
    school/rsis-ntu
    rsis.sg
    rsissg
    RSIS
    RSS
    Subscribe to RSIS Publications
    Subscribe to RSIS Events

    Getting to RSIS

    Nanyang Technological University
    Block S4, Level B3,
    50 Nanyang Avenue,
    Singapore 639798

    Click here for direction to RSIS

    Get in Touch

      Copyright © S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. All rights reserved.
      Privacy Statement / Terms of Use
      Help us improve

        Rate your experience with this website
        123456
        Not satisfiedVery satisfied
        What did you like?
        0/255 characters
        What can be improved?
        0/255 characters
        Your email
        Please enter a valid email.
        Thank you for your feedback.
        This site uses cookies to offer you a better browsing experience. By continuing, you are agreeing to the use of cookies on your device as described in our privacy policy. Learn more
        OK
        Latest Book
        more info