Back
About RSIS
Introduction
Building the Foundations
Welcome Message
Board of Governors
Staff Profiles
Executive Deputy Chairman’s Office
Dean’s Office
Management
Distinguished Fellows
Faculty and Research
Associate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research Analysts
Visiting Fellows
Adjunct Fellows
Administrative Staff
Honours and Awards for RSIS Staff and Students
RSIS Endowment Fund
Endowed Professorships
Career Opportunities
Getting to RSIS
Research
Research Centres
Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)
Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS)
Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)
International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
Research Programmes
National Security Studies Programme (NSSP)
Social Cohesion Research Programme (SCRP)
Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
Other Research
Future Issues and Technology Cluster
Research@RSIS
Science and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
Graduate Education
Graduate Programmes Office
Exchange Partners and Programmes
How to Apply
Financial Assistance
Meet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other events
RSIS Alumni
Outreach
Global Networks
About Global Networks
RSIS Alumni
Executive Education
About Executive Education
SRP Executive Programme
Terrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
International Programmes
About International Programmes
Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)
Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)
International Conference on Cohesive Societies (ICCS)
International Strategy Forum-Asia (ISF-Asia)
Publications
RSIS Publications
Annual Reviews
Books
Bulletins and Newsletters
RSIS Commentary Series
Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
Commemorative / Event Reports
Future Issues
IDSS Papers
Interreligious Relations
Monographs
NTS Insight
Policy Reports
Working Papers
External Publications
Authored Books
Journal Articles
Edited Books
Chapters in Edited Books
Policy Reports
Working Papers
Op-Eds
Glossary of Abbreviations
Policy-relevant Articles Given RSIS Award
RSIS Publications for the Year
External Publications for the Year
Media
News Releases
Speeches
Video/Audio Channel
Events
Contact Us
S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies Think Tank and Graduate School Ponder The Improbable Since 1966
Nanyang Technological University Nanyang Technological University
  • About RSIS
      IntroductionBuilding the FoundationsWelcome MessageBoard of GovernorsHonours and Awards for RSIS Staff and StudentsRSIS Endowment FundEndowed ProfessorshipsCareer OpportunitiesGetting to RSIS
      Staff ProfilesExecutive Deputy Chairman’s OfficeDean’s OfficeManagementDistinguished FellowsFaculty and ResearchAssociate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research AnalystsVisiting FellowsAdjunct FellowsAdministrative Staff
  • Research
      Research CentresCentre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS)Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
      Research ProgrammesNational Security Studies Programme (NSSP)Social Cohesion Research Programme (SCRP)Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
      Other ResearchFuture Issues and Technology ClusterResearch@RSISScience and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
  • Graduate Education
      Graduate Programmes OfficeExchange Partners and ProgrammesHow to ApplyFinancial AssistanceMeet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other eventsRSIS Alumni
  • Outreach
      Global NetworksAbout Global NetworksRSIS Alumni
      Executive EducationAbout Executive EducationSRP Executive ProgrammeTerrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
      International ProgrammesAbout International ProgrammesAsia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)International Conference on Cohesive Societies (ICCS)International Strategy Forum-Asia (ISF-Asia)
  • Publications
      RSIS PublicationsAnnual ReviewsBooksBulletins and NewslettersRSIS Commentary SeriesCounter Terrorist Trends and AnalysesCommemorative / Event ReportsFuture IssuesIDSS PapersInterreligious RelationsMonographsNTS InsightPolicy ReportsWorking Papers
      External PublicationsAuthored BooksJournal ArticlesEdited BooksChapters in Edited BooksPolicy ReportsWorking PapersOp-Eds
      Glossary of AbbreviationsPolicy-relevant Articles Given RSIS AwardRSIS Publications for the YearExternal Publications for the Year
  • Media
      News ReleasesSpeechesVideo/Audio Channel
  • Events
  • Contact Us
    • Connect with Us

      rsis.ntu
      rsis_ntu
      rsisntu
      rsisvideocast
      school/rsis-ntu
      rsis.sg
      rsissg
      RSIS
      RSS
      Subscribe to RSIS Publications
      Subscribe to RSIS Events

      Getting to RSIS

      Nanyang Technological University
      Block S4, Level B3,
      50 Nanyang Avenue,
      Singapore 639798

      Click here for direction to RSIS
Connect
Search
  • RSIS
  • Publication
  • RSIS Publications
  • CO14114 | Pakistan’s Home-grown Terrorism Threat: War Beyond 2014
  • Annual Reviews
  • Books
  • Bulletins and Newsletters
  • RSIS Commentary Series
  • Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
  • Commemorative / Event Reports
  • Future Issues
  • IDSS Papers
  • Interreligious Relations
  • Monographs
  • NTS Insight
  • Policy Reports
  • Working Papers

CO14114 | Pakistan’s Home-grown Terrorism Threat: War Beyond 2014
Abdul Basit

17 June 2014

download pdf

Synopsis

The upsurge in terrorist violence in Pakistan this month indicates the trajectory of its home-grown terrorism by Islamist insurgents well beyond 2014. Besides a strong military response to win the fight against militants, the political leadership must take ownership of the war and demonstrate strong political will.

Commentary

TWO HIGH-PROFILE attacks in Karachi and Balochistan have highlighted the resurgent threat of home-grown terrorism by Islamist insurgents in Pakistan. On 8 June 2014 militants from the Islamic Uzbekistan Union (IMU) and their Pakistani counterparts mounted a brazen terrorist attack on Pakistan’s biggest airport in Karachi. In the five-hour long siege, around 39 people, including 10 militants and 12 security personnel, were killed.

Meanwhile, three suicide bombers of a Sunni militant outfit Jaish-ul-Islam (Army of Islam) targeted a hotel hosting around 300 Shia pilgrims in south-western Balochistan province’s Taftan town, killing 30 people. The Shia pilgrims were returning from visits to shrines and holy places in Iran.

Implications of airport attack

The attack on Karachi airport virtually stymied the peace process between the militants’ umbrella group, the Pakistan Taliban (Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan TPP), and the Pakistani government. It has pushed the country’s political and military leadership onto the same page. The public anger over the attack allowed the embattled Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to announce a military operation in North Waziristan Agency, along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. On 15 June the Pakistani Army formally launched the military operation, Zarbe Azb (Sword of the Prophet) against local and foreign militants in the Agency.

The attack on Karachi airport has brought home the realisation that Pakistan’s fight against home-grown terrorism will continue well beyond 2014. The US exit from Afghanistan in 2014 will not bring any respite but more trouble for Pakistan’s internal security. In the context of growing militancy in Pakistan, the US presence in, or absence from Afghanistan and Pakistan-US counter-terrorism cooperation, have become irrelevant factors.

Ahead of 2014, the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), had shifted its strategic objective from fighting the US occupation of Afghanistan to Pakistan-focused operations. TTP has reconfigured itself as a Pan-Islamist jihadist group in Pakistan. Its war is now against the Pakistani state for the establishment of Taliban-style Sharia system in Pakistan. TTP’s campaign against Pakistan’s May 2013 parliamentary elections was a clear signal of the strategic shift.

In August 2013, TTP wrote a four-page letter to Pakistan’s religious scholars seeking their opinion (Fatwa) about democracy as a system of governance in Pakistan. The letter categorically stated that TTP’s struggle was not only against Pakistan’s alliance with the US in the WOT but also against the democratic system in Pakistan.

TTP has been carefully orchestrating and spreading its terror campaign to mainland Pakistan. Moving to cities is a part of the Taliban’s evolving strategy for post-2014 operations inside Pakistan. The struggle to weaken Pakistan and bring about a Shariah system will not occur in the hinterlands of FATA but in the streets and cities of Punjab and Sindh. By targeting Karachi airport the TTP has announced the shift in the militant trajectory from tribal to urban areas.

Peace talks or military operations?

The Karachi airport attack has also raised serious questions about the efficacy of the political approach alone to deal with militancy. Since his assumption of power in May last year, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has engaged the TTP politically but only achieved a 40-day ceasefire (1 March-10 April).

The current government deemed suspension of drone strikes and military operation in FATA as a pre-condition for peace talks to succeed. Reluctantly, the Pakistan army supported Sharif’s political approach and gave his government the time and space it needed to try its political approach. During the peace talks, the US suspended drone strikes in Pakistan from December 2013 to 10 June 2014, and the Pakistan army did not conduct any major military operation in FATA as well.

The fanfare with which Prime Minister Sharif initiated the peace dialogue with the TTP has subsided now. It has dispelled the misguided belief that the Pakistan army’s counter-terrorism operations, unrest in Afghanistan and US-led drone programme in FATA had fuelled terrorism in Pakistan. The critics of military operations and drone strikes failed to realise that to date almost all the peace deals with the Taliban have failed.

At the same time, military operation alone is not a solution to militancy in Pakistan either. There is no one silver bullet for this pernicious issue. Disrupting and destroying terrorist infrastructure is only one component of counter-terrorism. Physically gaining an upper hand against the militants in the battlefield is a tactical gain that remains incomplete without discrediting and delegitimising the terrorist ideology.

Need for robust counter narrative

At a strategic level, winning the war of ideas is more important. Pakistan will have to come up with a robust counter narrative against the Taliban’s ideology to win the war of ideas as well. A comprehensive policy ensuring a strict legal and administrative counter terrorism regime that ensures timely and efficient trials of detained militants is also needed.

Given the above, Pakistan’s problem will only increase after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. TTP-led terrorism in Pakistan is not just about the retaliation of military operations and the US drone strikes.

Instead it is a means to force the state to accept the Islamist militant as a stakeholder in the system and create space for the terror group in Pakistan beyond 2014. To win against terrorists, besides a strong military response, it is critical that the political leadership takes ownership of the war and demonstrate strong political will.

The US withdrawal places Pakistan at a crossroads:to become an economic bridge between Central and South Asian regions by curbing the internal militancy that has regional and global aspirations, or be an obstruction to regional peace by continuing its support for favourable militant groups, the so-called “good Taliban”. The latter scenario will lead to a new wave of proxy wars in the region.

About the author

The writer is a Senior Analyst at the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR) of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University.

Categories: RSIS Commentary Series / Conflict and Stability / Country and Region Studies / International Politics and Security / Terrorism Studies / South Asia / Global

Synopsis

The upsurge in terrorist violence in Pakistan this month indicates the trajectory of its home-grown terrorism by Islamist insurgents well beyond 2014. Besides a strong military response to win the fight against militants, the political leadership must take ownership of the war and demonstrate strong political will.

Commentary

TWO HIGH-PROFILE attacks in Karachi and Balochistan have highlighted the resurgent threat of home-grown terrorism by Islamist insurgents in Pakistan. On 8 June 2014 militants from the Islamic Uzbekistan Union (IMU) and their Pakistani counterparts mounted a brazen terrorist attack on Pakistan’s biggest airport in Karachi. In the five-hour long siege, around 39 people, including 10 militants and 12 security personnel, were killed.

Meanwhile, three suicide bombers of a Sunni militant outfit Jaish-ul-Islam (Army of Islam) targeted a hotel hosting around 300 Shia pilgrims in south-western Balochistan province’s Taftan town, killing 30 people. The Shia pilgrims were returning from visits to shrines and holy places in Iran.

Implications of airport attack

The attack on Karachi airport virtually stymied the peace process between the militants’ umbrella group, the Pakistan Taliban (Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan TPP), and the Pakistani government. It has pushed the country’s political and military leadership onto the same page. The public anger over the attack allowed the embattled Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to announce a military operation in North Waziristan Agency, along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. On 15 June the Pakistani Army formally launched the military operation, Zarbe Azb (Sword of the Prophet) against local and foreign militants in the Agency.

The attack on Karachi airport has brought home the realisation that Pakistan’s fight against home-grown terrorism will continue well beyond 2014. The US exit from Afghanistan in 2014 will not bring any respite but more trouble for Pakistan’s internal security. In the context of growing militancy in Pakistan, the US presence in, or absence from Afghanistan and Pakistan-US counter-terrorism cooperation, have become irrelevant factors.

Ahead of 2014, the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), had shifted its strategic objective from fighting the US occupation of Afghanistan to Pakistan-focused operations. TTP has reconfigured itself as a Pan-Islamist jihadist group in Pakistan. Its war is now against the Pakistani state for the establishment of Taliban-style Sharia system in Pakistan. TTP’s campaign against Pakistan’s May 2013 parliamentary elections was a clear signal of the strategic shift.

In August 2013, TTP wrote a four-page letter to Pakistan’s religious scholars seeking their opinion (Fatwa) about democracy as a system of governance in Pakistan. The letter categorically stated that TTP’s struggle was not only against Pakistan’s alliance with the US in the WOT but also against the democratic system in Pakistan.

TTP has been carefully orchestrating and spreading its terror campaign to mainland Pakistan. Moving to cities is a part of the Taliban’s evolving strategy for post-2014 operations inside Pakistan. The struggle to weaken Pakistan and bring about a Shariah system will not occur in the hinterlands of FATA but in the streets and cities of Punjab and Sindh. By targeting Karachi airport the TTP has announced the shift in the militant trajectory from tribal to urban areas.

Peace talks or military operations?

The Karachi airport attack has also raised serious questions about the efficacy of the political approach alone to deal with militancy. Since his assumption of power in May last year, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has engaged the TTP politically but only achieved a 40-day ceasefire (1 March-10 April).

The current government deemed suspension of drone strikes and military operation in FATA as a pre-condition for peace talks to succeed. Reluctantly, the Pakistan army supported Sharif’s political approach and gave his government the time and space it needed to try its political approach. During the peace talks, the US suspended drone strikes in Pakistan from December 2013 to 10 June 2014, and the Pakistan army did not conduct any major military operation in FATA as well.

The fanfare with which Prime Minister Sharif initiated the peace dialogue with the TTP has subsided now. It has dispelled the misguided belief that the Pakistan army’s counter-terrorism operations, unrest in Afghanistan and US-led drone programme in FATA had fuelled terrorism in Pakistan. The critics of military operations and drone strikes failed to realise that to date almost all the peace deals with the Taliban have failed.

At the same time, military operation alone is not a solution to militancy in Pakistan either. There is no one silver bullet for this pernicious issue. Disrupting and destroying terrorist infrastructure is only one component of counter-terrorism. Physically gaining an upper hand against the militants in the battlefield is a tactical gain that remains incomplete without discrediting and delegitimising the terrorist ideology.

Need for robust counter narrative

At a strategic level, winning the war of ideas is more important. Pakistan will have to come up with a robust counter narrative against the Taliban’s ideology to win the war of ideas as well. A comprehensive policy ensuring a strict legal and administrative counter terrorism regime that ensures timely and efficient trials of detained militants is also needed.

Given the above, Pakistan’s problem will only increase after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. TTP-led terrorism in Pakistan is not just about the retaliation of military operations and the US drone strikes.

Instead it is a means to force the state to accept the Islamist militant as a stakeholder in the system and create space for the terror group in Pakistan beyond 2014. To win against terrorists, besides a strong military response, it is critical that the political leadership takes ownership of the war and demonstrate strong political will.

The US withdrawal places Pakistan at a crossroads:to become an economic bridge between Central and South Asian regions by curbing the internal militancy that has regional and global aspirations, or be an obstruction to regional peace by continuing its support for favourable militant groups, the so-called “good Taliban”. The latter scenario will lead to a new wave of proxy wars in the region.

About the author

The writer is a Senior Analyst at the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR) of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University.

Categories: RSIS Commentary Series / Conflict and Stability / Country and Region Studies / International Politics and Security / Terrorism Studies

Popular Links

About RSISResearch ProgrammesGraduate EducationPublicationsEventsAdmissionsCareersVideo/Audio ChannelRSIS Intranet

Connect with Us

rsis.ntu
rsis_ntu
rsisntu
rsisvideocast
school/rsis-ntu
rsis.sg
rsissg
RSIS
RSS
Subscribe to RSIS Publications
Subscribe to RSIS Events

Getting to RSIS

Nanyang Technological University
Block S4, Level B3,
50 Nanyang Avenue,
Singapore 639798

Click here for direction to RSIS

Get in Touch

    Copyright © S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. All rights reserved.
    Privacy Statement / Terms of Use
    Help us improve

      Rate your experience with this website
      123456
      Not satisfiedVery satisfied
      What did you like?
      0/255 characters
      What can be improved?
      0/255 characters
      Your email
      Please enter a valid email.
      Thank you for your feedback.
      This site uses cookies to offer you a better browsing experience. By continuing, you are agreeing to the use of cookies on your device as described in our privacy policy. Learn more
      OK
      Latest Book
      more info