Back
About RSIS
Introduction
Building the Foundations
Welcome Message
Board of Governors
Staff Profiles
Executive Deputy Chairman’s Office
Dean’s Office
Management
Distinguished Fellows
Faculty and Research
Associate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research Analysts
Visiting Fellows
Adjunct Fellows
Administrative Staff
Honours and Awards for RSIS Staff and Students
RSIS Endowment Fund
Endowed Professorships
Career Opportunities
Getting to RSIS
Research
Research Centres
Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)
Centre of Excellence for National Security
Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)
International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
Research Programmes
National Security Studies Programme (NSSP)
Social Cohesion Research Programme (SCRP)
Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
Other Research
Future Issues and Technology Cluster
Research@RSIS
Science and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
Graduate Education
Graduate Programmes Office
Exchange Partners and Programmes
How to Apply
Financial Assistance
Meet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other events
RSIS Alumni
Outreach
Global Networks
About Global Networks
RSIS Alumni
Executive Education
About Executive Education
SRP Executive Programme
Terrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
International Programmes
About International Programmes
Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)
Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)
International Conference on Cohesive Societies (ICCS)
International Strategy Forum-Asia (ISF-Asia)
Publications
RSIS Publications
Annual Reviews
Books
Bulletins and Newsletters
RSIS Commentary Series
Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
Commemorative / Event Reports
Future Issues
IDSS Papers
Interreligious Relations
Monographs
NTS Insight
Policy Reports
Working Papers
External Publications
Authored Books
Journal Articles
Edited Books
Chapters in Edited Books
Policy Reports
Working Papers
Op-Eds
Glossary of Abbreviations
Policy-relevant Articles Given RSIS Award
RSIS Publications for the Year
External Publications for the Year
Media
Cohesive Societies
Sustainable Security
Other Resource Pages
News Releases
Speeches
Video/Audio Channel
External Podcasts
Events
Contact Us
S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies Think Tank and Graduate School Ponder The Improbable Since 1966
Nanyang Technological University Nanyang Technological University
  • About RSIS
      IntroductionBuilding the FoundationsWelcome MessageBoard of GovernorsHonours and Awards for RSIS Staff and StudentsRSIS Endowment FundEndowed ProfessorshipsCareer OpportunitiesGetting to RSIS
      Staff ProfilesExecutive Deputy Chairman’s OfficeDean’s OfficeManagementDistinguished FellowsFaculty and ResearchAssociate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research AnalystsVisiting FellowsAdjunct FellowsAdministrative Staff
  • Research
      Research CentresCentre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)Centre of Excellence for National SecurityInstitute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
      Research ProgrammesNational Security Studies Programme (NSSP)Social Cohesion Research Programme (SCRP)Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
      Other ResearchFuture Issues and Technology ClusterResearch@RSISScience and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
  • Graduate Education
      Graduate Programmes OfficeExchange Partners and ProgrammesHow to ApplyFinancial AssistanceMeet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other eventsRSIS Alumni
  • Outreach
      Global NetworksAbout Global NetworksRSIS Alumni
      Executive EducationAbout Executive EducationSRP Executive ProgrammeTerrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
      International ProgrammesAbout International ProgrammesAsia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)International Conference on Cohesive Societies (ICCS)International Strategy Forum-Asia (ISF-Asia)
  • Publications
      RSIS PublicationsAnnual ReviewsBooksBulletins and NewslettersRSIS Commentary SeriesCounter Terrorist Trends and AnalysesCommemorative / Event ReportsFuture IssuesIDSS PapersInterreligious RelationsMonographsNTS InsightPolicy ReportsWorking Papers
      External PublicationsAuthored BooksJournal ArticlesEdited BooksChapters in Edited BooksPolicy ReportsWorking PapersOp-Eds
      Glossary of AbbreviationsPolicy-relevant Articles Given RSIS AwardRSIS Publications for the YearExternal Publications for the Year
  • Media
      Cohesive SocietiesSustainable SecurityOther Resource PagesNews ReleasesSpeechesVideo/Audio ChannelExternal Podcasts
  • Events
  • Contact Us
    • Connect with Us

      rsis.ntu
      rsis_ntu
      rsisntu
      rsisvideocast
      school/rsis-ntu
      rsis.sg
      rsissg
      RSIS
      RSS
      Subscribe to RSIS Publications
      Subscribe to RSIS Events

      Getting to RSIS

      Nanyang Technological University
      Block S4, Level B3,
      50 Nanyang Avenue,
      Singapore 639798

      Click here for direction to RSIS

      Get in Touch

    Connect
    Search
    • RSIS
    • Publication
    • RSIS Publications
    • US-China Rivalry: Managing a Deep and Wide Gulf
    • Annual Reviews
    • Books
    • Bulletins and Newsletters
    • RSIS Commentary Series
    • Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
    • Commemorative / Event Reports
    • Future Issues
    • IDSS Papers
    • Interreligious Relations
    • Monographs
    • NTS Insight
    • Policy Reports
    • Working Papers

    CO24057 | US-China Rivalry: Managing a Deep and Wide Gulf
    Han Fook Kwang

    03 May 2024

    download pdf

    SYNOPSIS

    US-China relations are looking better than they were a year ago, but the gulf remains deep, wide and probably long-lasting on most of the important issues between the two great powers. Both sides know this and do not expect much progress. In this new reality, the rest of the world needs to adjust its expectations about what can be achieved.

    US China
    Source: Canva

    COMMENTARY

    United States President Joe Biden met his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in San Francisco in November, the first American trip by the Chinese leader since 2017. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen was in Guangzhou and Beijing in April, her second China trip in nine months. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Friday (26 April) wrapped up a visit to the Chinese capital after meeting business leaders in Shanghai.

    Ties between the two countries are so fraught these days that observers look for the slightest signs of detente that might indicate a cooling of tensions between the two great powers.

    Such is the low bar of expectation; the fact that they have been talking is a reason to cheer.

    But has there been an improvement, a meeting of minds? Are the two sides closer now to resolving their differences? Has the likelihood of potential armed conflict receded, even if only slightly?

    Thorny Issues

    The Biden and Xi meeting produced several agreements on military-to-military communications and on ways to curb the supply of the narcotic drug fentanyl. However, on the big issues that have troubled relations between the two, there were no movements, not even a hint of that.

    China complained about US export controls on advanced technology such as semiconductors, and Biden made no headway in getting Xi’s support over the conflict in the Middle East.

    Other issues have recently cropped up, the latest being the complaints by the European Union and the US suggesting that China is dumping its green energy products, such as electric cars and solar panels in their markets, undercutting local businesses.

    The Chinese might be forgiven for wondering what the fuss was about when the world is facing a climate crisis and trying to wean itself off fossil fuels.

    Reports said the two talked past each other over these thorny issues.

    I had a taste of this as an observer in an annual meeting between scholars and analysts from the two countries held here last week, with Singapore as an interlocutor.

    The 5th Trilateral Exchange organised by the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) was a useful two-day forum on how far apart they are, and in which areas they might be able to work together.

    Participants came from academia and think tanks, including the American Enterprise Institute, the Eurasia Group, the Atlantic Council, the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), the People’s Liberation Army Academy of Military Sciences, and Tsinghua University.

    How wide is the gulf?

    Americans at the meeting had plenty to say on this.

    Several said the differences were structural over a wide range of issues, including trade, technology, and their differing positions on international issues such as the Ukraine war, the Middle East conflict, and the South China Sea disputes.

    One American participant noted that the two sides were at loggerheads in so many areas that it could only be described as a cold war, but with a small “c” and “w”, suggesting that they are some distance away from the level of tension seen during the Cold War of the last century when differences between the West and the Soviet Union were irreconcilable and there was always a danger of the rivalry erupting into a nuclear conflict.

    He said it was useful to acknowledge this so there could be a better understanding of the nature of the rivalry and how to manage it.

    It is an important message. One US speaker sharpened the point, for me at least, when answering a question about how to improve relations between the two said: Achieving better ties was not a goal the US was currently seeking. Rather, its focus was on maintaining its position amid the changing geopolitical landscape.

    It was a sobering reality check about expecting any improvement in the relationship.

    The Chinese side was not so emphatic on this point. Rather, their underlying message was that China could not be pushed around, that the era of complete American domination was over, and a new balance had to be struck to take into account China’s place in the world.

    One interesting point from a Chinese speaker: A strong China is necessary for global stability.

    He did not say it, but the inevitable conclusion must be that the country will relentlessly pursue its development in all the areas that will strengthen its global power, including advanced technology, defence, and its international relations.

    It is no longer only about improving the livelihood of the Chinese people, which, of course, remains centre stage, but it is also about making the world more secure.

    That is how China is framing its position.

    As with the American side, there was also a hint of fatalism about this new order when a Chinese participant made the somewhat startling but, perhaps, entirely realistic declaration that trust was not a critical factor as both sides tried to manage their relations.

    He observed that during the Cold War, there was deep mistrust between the US and the Soviet Union, but they were able to agree on issues such as nuclear controls and, most importantly, avoided direct conflict.

    It was another sobering reality check.

    The Divide will Remain

    Many third parties, including Singapore, made the point that without trust on both sides, there can be little progress.

    While this is true, a more realistic way of thinking about the problem might necessitate going beyond strengthening trust since it is so difficult to achieve.

    Accept that the mistrust will be around for a long time and see what can be achieved in the meantime.

    It also calls for managing expectations of the future, especially for third parties, and how they can better protect their interests amid the continuing tension.

    So, expect that the US will place more sanctions, especially if Donald Trump returns to the White House, and that tariffs on a whole range of Chinese goods will go up.

    Expect that the Chinese will continue to make further progress in advanced technology and increase their production capabilities and that its vision of the world will be different from America’s.

    For me, the main message of the trilateral meeting was: Both sides knew how wide the gulf was and were not expecting any resolutions of their many issues or any improvement in their overall relationship.

    The focus was more on managing the deep and wide gulf.

    In such an environment, perhaps the lowest bar of all becomes the most important: How not to start a war between the two sides.

    This is not to say there can be no progress in areas that are mutually beneficial.

    One Chinese speaker highlighted artificial intelligence and outer space as two areas where both can work together. They are relatively new issues which neither has an entrenched position on.

    A question that was not raised but is worthy of future discussions: If this is the new reality, that the divide will remain and that trust will be elusive for some time to come, what sort of world will it be in, say, 10 years’ time?

    Can there still be peace and prosperity for all in such a divided and distrusting world? Is it possible to have a working relationship between the two sides in this new order?

    How will such a modus vivendi work?

    One final note on the role of an interlocutor: A Chinese speaker complimented Singapore for holding the talks and raised the suggestion that it could play the role which Vienna did during the Cold War when it was used as a meeting place for the two protagonists.

    Singapore will hope that if, indeed, it becomes one, it will be dealing with only a small c and w.

    About the Author

    Han Fook Kwang was a veteran newspaper editor and is a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore. This commentary is a slightly edited version of an article published in Channel News Asia on 29 April 2024. It is republished here with permission.

    Categories: RSIS Commentary Series / Country and Region Studies / International Politics and Security / East Asia and Asia Pacific / South Asia / Southeast Asia and ASEAN / Global
    comments powered by Disqus

    SYNOPSIS

    US-China relations are looking better than they were a year ago, but the gulf remains deep, wide and probably long-lasting on most of the important issues between the two great powers. Both sides know this and do not expect much progress. In this new reality, the rest of the world needs to adjust its expectations about what can be achieved.

    US China
    Source: Canva

    COMMENTARY

    United States President Joe Biden met his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in San Francisco in November, the first American trip by the Chinese leader since 2017. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen was in Guangzhou and Beijing in April, her second China trip in nine months. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Friday (26 April) wrapped up a visit to the Chinese capital after meeting business leaders in Shanghai.

    Ties between the two countries are so fraught these days that observers look for the slightest signs of detente that might indicate a cooling of tensions between the two great powers.

    Such is the low bar of expectation; the fact that they have been talking is a reason to cheer.

    But has there been an improvement, a meeting of minds? Are the two sides closer now to resolving their differences? Has the likelihood of potential armed conflict receded, even if only slightly?

    Thorny Issues

    The Biden and Xi meeting produced several agreements on military-to-military communications and on ways to curb the supply of the narcotic drug fentanyl. However, on the big issues that have troubled relations between the two, there were no movements, not even a hint of that.

    China complained about US export controls on advanced technology such as semiconductors, and Biden made no headway in getting Xi’s support over the conflict in the Middle East.

    Other issues have recently cropped up, the latest being the complaints by the European Union and the US suggesting that China is dumping its green energy products, such as electric cars and solar panels in their markets, undercutting local businesses.

    The Chinese might be forgiven for wondering what the fuss was about when the world is facing a climate crisis and trying to wean itself off fossil fuels.

    Reports said the two talked past each other over these thorny issues.

    I had a taste of this as an observer in an annual meeting between scholars and analysts from the two countries held here last week, with Singapore as an interlocutor.

    The 5th Trilateral Exchange organised by the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) was a useful two-day forum on how far apart they are, and in which areas they might be able to work together.

    Participants came from academia and think tanks, including the American Enterprise Institute, the Eurasia Group, the Atlantic Council, the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), the People’s Liberation Army Academy of Military Sciences, and Tsinghua University.

    How wide is the gulf?

    Americans at the meeting had plenty to say on this.

    Several said the differences were structural over a wide range of issues, including trade, technology, and their differing positions on international issues such as the Ukraine war, the Middle East conflict, and the South China Sea disputes.

    One American participant noted that the two sides were at loggerheads in so many areas that it could only be described as a cold war, but with a small “c” and “w”, suggesting that they are some distance away from the level of tension seen during the Cold War of the last century when differences between the West and the Soviet Union were irreconcilable and there was always a danger of the rivalry erupting into a nuclear conflict.

    He said it was useful to acknowledge this so there could be a better understanding of the nature of the rivalry and how to manage it.

    It is an important message. One US speaker sharpened the point, for me at least, when answering a question about how to improve relations between the two said: Achieving better ties was not a goal the US was currently seeking. Rather, its focus was on maintaining its position amid the changing geopolitical landscape.

    It was a sobering reality check about expecting any improvement in the relationship.

    The Chinese side was not so emphatic on this point. Rather, their underlying message was that China could not be pushed around, that the era of complete American domination was over, and a new balance had to be struck to take into account China’s place in the world.

    One interesting point from a Chinese speaker: A strong China is necessary for global stability.

    He did not say it, but the inevitable conclusion must be that the country will relentlessly pursue its development in all the areas that will strengthen its global power, including advanced technology, defence, and its international relations.

    It is no longer only about improving the livelihood of the Chinese people, which, of course, remains centre stage, but it is also about making the world more secure.

    That is how China is framing its position.

    As with the American side, there was also a hint of fatalism about this new order when a Chinese participant made the somewhat startling but, perhaps, entirely realistic declaration that trust was not a critical factor as both sides tried to manage their relations.

    He observed that during the Cold War, there was deep mistrust between the US and the Soviet Union, but they were able to agree on issues such as nuclear controls and, most importantly, avoided direct conflict.

    It was another sobering reality check.

    The Divide will Remain

    Many third parties, including Singapore, made the point that without trust on both sides, there can be little progress.

    While this is true, a more realistic way of thinking about the problem might necessitate going beyond strengthening trust since it is so difficult to achieve.

    Accept that the mistrust will be around for a long time and see what can be achieved in the meantime.

    It also calls for managing expectations of the future, especially for third parties, and how they can better protect their interests amid the continuing tension.

    So, expect that the US will place more sanctions, especially if Donald Trump returns to the White House, and that tariffs on a whole range of Chinese goods will go up.

    Expect that the Chinese will continue to make further progress in advanced technology and increase their production capabilities and that its vision of the world will be different from America’s.

    For me, the main message of the trilateral meeting was: Both sides knew how wide the gulf was and were not expecting any resolutions of their many issues or any improvement in their overall relationship.

    The focus was more on managing the deep and wide gulf.

    In such an environment, perhaps the lowest bar of all becomes the most important: How not to start a war between the two sides.

    This is not to say there can be no progress in areas that are mutually beneficial.

    One Chinese speaker highlighted artificial intelligence and outer space as two areas where both can work together. They are relatively new issues which neither has an entrenched position on.

    A question that was not raised but is worthy of future discussions: If this is the new reality, that the divide will remain and that trust will be elusive for some time to come, what sort of world will it be in, say, 10 years’ time?

    Can there still be peace and prosperity for all in such a divided and distrusting world? Is it possible to have a working relationship between the two sides in this new order?

    How will such a modus vivendi work?

    One final note on the role of an interlocutor: A Chinese speaker complimented Singapore for holding the talks and raised the suggestion that it could play the role which Vienna did during the Cold War when it was used as a meeting place for the two protagonists.

    Singapore will hope that if, indeed, it becomes one, it will be dealing with only a small c and w.

    About the Author

    Han Fook Kwang was a veteran newspaper editor and is a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore. This commentary is a slightly edited version of an article published in Channel News Asia on 29 April 2024. It is republished here with permission.

    Categories: RSIS Commentary Series / Country and Region Studies / International Politics and Security

    Popular Links

    About RSISResearch ProgrammesGraduate EducationPublicationsEventsAdmissionsCareersVideo/Audio ChannelRSIS Intranet

    Connect with Us

    rsis.ntu
    rsis_ntu
    rsisntu
    rsisvideocast
    school/rsis-ntu
    rsis.sg
    rsissg
    RSIS
    RSS
    Subscribe to RSIS Publications
    Subscribe to RSIS Events

    Getting to RSIS

    Nanyang Technological University
    Block S4, Level B3,
    50 Nanyang Avenue,
    Singapore 639798

    Click here for direction to RSIS

    Get in Touch

      Copyright © S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. All rights reserved.
      Privacy Statement / Terms of Use
      Help us improve

        Rate your experience with this website
        123456
        Not satisfiedVery satisfied
        What did you like?
        0/255 characters
        What can be improved?
        0/255 characters
        Your email
        Please enter a valid email.
        Thank you for your feedback.
        This site uses cookies to offer you a better browsing experience. By continuing, you are agreeing to the use of cookies on your device as described in our privacy policy. Learn more
        OK
        Latest Book
        more info