Research@RSIS Newsletter Feedback Form
Getting Inside the Head of War Leaders: The Critical Decision Method and Historical Case Studies
Dr Pascal Vennesson Senior Fellow ; Head of Research, RSIS and Professor of Political Science, University Panthéon-Assas, Paris II (on leave)
Dr Pascal Vennesson
Ms Wendy He Senior Analyst
Ms Wendy He
Steven Robert Adam
Steven Robert Adam
3
A behavioral revolution has expanded experimental research in IR. Yet in the study of real-world decisions, political scientists still face challenges to establish empirically how cognitive processes work. The sources they use may contain valuable clues to understand how decision-makers perform cognitive tasks, but methodological guidance is needed on what to look for. The critical decision method (CMD), an influential knowledge elicitation method in cognitive psychology, provides useful tools to approach real-world individual mental processes. It helps probe how decision-makers interpret situations, make perceptual discriminations, solve problems, and use their cognitive skills to carry out challenging tasks. We show how the CMD captures key cognitive processes in IR such as overconfidence, the (mis)use of analogies and reliance on intuition. We illustrate CMD’s viability for historical case studies by using it to assess General MacArthur's Incheon landing decision in the Korean War.
| Theme: | General / Conflict and Stability / International Politics and Security |
| Region: | Global |
| Entity: | IDSS |
