SECURITY CHALLENGES AND RESPONSES IN THE ASIA–PACIFIC

Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen, I am delighted to be here today to deliver the Keynote Address at the Opening Session of the First General Meeting of the Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific (CSCAP).

Regional Security Situation

It is often said that the 21′ Century belongs to the Asia-Pacific. The projections support this claim. The Asia-Pacific countries are enjoying a period of rapid economic growth. By the year 2010, it is projected that East Asia alone will account for one-third of the global production growth. East Asian countries are also expected to generate up to 40% of the world’s new purchasing power and demand for imports. The Asia-Pacific region is projected to out-perform other regions of the world in economic growth.

The prospects are bright. But whether the Asia-Pacific fulfils its potential depends on whether there is a stable and secure international and regional environment. Countries cannot concentrate on economic development unless there is peace and stability.

The strategic landscape of the Asia-Pacific region has undergone fundamental changes over the past few years. The situation is likely to remain dynamic in the foreseeable future. Fortunately, the outlook is an optimistic one. While there are some areas of contention, the countries in the region are acutely aware that it is in their own interest to help maintain a regional environment which is conducive to further economic growth and development. This means broadening avenues of cooperation, and minimising or better managing issues which could lead to tension and hostilities. We see evidence of this in regional initiatives at the Track One or official level through forums such as the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum and the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF). At the Track Two or non-governmental level, discussions and cooperation are also taking place in forums such as CSCAP and the Western Pacific Naval Symposium (WPNS), which have as their objective the enhancement of regional security.

As the Asia-Pacific countries develop economically and the political relationships evolve and stabilise, the geostrategic landscape in the region will begin to take a more definite shape. The key challenge for all the Asia-Pacific countries is to manage the transition in a way that will foster a stable and peaceful environment.

The regional security landscape will be determined in large part by the triangular relationship among the three major players in the region, namely, the United States, China and Japan. How the relationship between each pair of countries develops will have a significant impact on security and stability not only of the two countries involved but also of the third country and the region.

As the sole superpower in the world today, the US plays a pivotal role. For many years, the military presence of the US has been a key factor for stability in the region. In the years ahead, the US military presence will be no less significant a factor for regional stability. The US military presence contributes to a stable environment which is conducive for economic activity and economic development. It is therefore reassuring that the US has acknowledged that it has vital interests in the Asia-Pacific and will continue to maintain the current level of military presence in the region. Only last week, President Clinton reiterated how the United States’ interests, both its security and its prosperity, are very closely tied to the future of the Asia-Pacific region.

President Clinton also recognised the vital importance of the relationship between the US and China. A strong China, with a significant political and economic status in global affair’s and potentially a military capability to match, is something the rest of the world will have to co-exist with. Whether we co-exist happily and work together for mutual benefit or whether the future will be characterised by tension and conflict will depend as much on how the US and the rest of the world deal with China as on China itself.

Japan too will have an important role to play in determining the future geopolitical landscape in the Asia-Pacific region. We are happy to note that the US-Japan security alliance will continue to be an important element contributing to regional peace and stability. The development of the relationship between Japan and China can be one of potentially vast economic benefit to both countries, Friendly relations marked by economic cooperation between Japan and China can also be an important underpinning for regional peace and stability.

Potential Areas of Tension

With the three major players — the United States, China and Japan — all committed to stability and cooperation, the outlook for the Asia-Pacific region is a bright one. But we cannot deny that there are areas of potential conflict in the region which could flare up quickly.

The situation on the Korean Peninsula is obviously of great concern to everyone.

The dispute over the Spratly islands is another potential hotspot. The Spratlys dispute is not only about sovereignty. It is also about the right of international shipping to navigate the waters around the Spratlys. The freedom of navigation is an issue of vital importance to Singapore and other countries in the region. We hope that the various claimants will abide by internationally accepted codes of conduct and resolve their territorial dispute by peaceful means. In the meantime, confidence-building measures and cooperative activities can help to reduce tensions.

A third area of uncertainty is the Taiwan Strait. This is a major area of concern as any conflict in the Strait will alter the strategic balance and have serious adverse effects on the whole region. The crisis last year demonstrated how quickly the situation can destabilise. Cool heads and rational calculations are necessary to manage this potentially difficult situation.

Responding to the Challenges

No country in the region would want to see the trend of dynamic economic growth disrupted and the promise of a better life for its people unfulfilled. It is therefore of great concern to all of us that regional peace and stability be preserved. So it is important for us to work together with one another as partners in the effort to enhance regional security and stability.

Singapore believes that regional stability and security can best be ensured by having a security architecture comprising strong bilateral relationships interwoven with multilateral security arrangements. Strong bilateral relationships should be fostered not only between countries in the region but also between regional countries and those outside the region which have an interest in the stability of the region. This network of bilateral relationships should be complemented by multilateral arrangements such as ASEAN, the ARF, APEC, and the Five Power Defence Arrangements (FPDA). Such relationships and arrangements help develop understanding and trust between and among countries, and foster an environment in which difficult issues can be discussed and disagreements resolved.

Bilateral Relationships

Strong bilateral relationships are the basic building blocks in the regional security architecture. Singapore enjoys close ties with many regional countries and cooperate with them in many sectors, including in the defence sector. These are relationships which go back many years. Over the years, the interactions and cooperation have fostered understanding and rapport and deepened the friendship between Singapore and our regional friends. Our defence cooperation extends to military training in countries such as Indonesia, Thailand and Brunei as our friends generously offer facilities which enable the Singapore Armed Forces to overcome the lack of training space in Singapore.

Singapore’s defence ties with friendly countries extend to countries outside ASEAN. Australia, New Zealand and the United States are Asia-Pacific countries with which Singapore has extensive defence cooperation within the context of strong bilateral relations. In these countries, the Singapore Armed Forces have access to valuable training facilities. Australia and New Zealand are our partners in the FPDA. In the case of the US, Singapore has allowed the US forces to use military facilities here so as to facilitate the US military presence in the region, which we regard as an important contribution to regional peace and stability. Our bilateral relationships with our friends, as well as the web of bilateral relationships our friends have among themselves, are all important threads in the strong fabric of regional peace and stability.

Multilateral Arrangements

Strong multilateral arrangements are equally important. ASEAN has shown how much can be achieved through cooperation for the benefit of its members and the region as a whole. ASEAN provides a forum for member countries to engage in frank discussions of issues, including security issues., The evolution of a tradition of consultation and consensus has helped to develop a higher level of understanding and trust among the member states. Cooperation in such things as the ASEAN Free Trade Area has brought about economic benefits for member states, and are in themselves confidence-building measures. A notable effort by ASEAN to promote regional stability is the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapons Free Zone (SEANWFZ) initiative. The SEANWFZ Treaty has now entered into force. It represents the contribution of ASEAN states to nuclear non-proliferation, and is consistent with ASEAN’s goal of making Southeast Asia a Zone of Peace; Freedom and Neutrality.

ASEAN is also the driving force behind the ASEAN Regional Forum. The ARF has elicited a significant level of interest because it is a forum for both regional and extra-regional countries to discuss security issues of common concern and interest. The ARF helps build up trust and fosters greater confidence among its members, so that any differences we may have are more likely to be resolved peacefully without the use of force. The ARF thus adds an important layer to the regional security framework.

Although only in its fourth year, the comfort level among member participants of the ARF has increased significantly. The ARF has moved from general discussions to discussions on more substantive issues, such as cooperation in Search and Rescue, Peacekeeping, Disaster Relief, and the development of Confidence-Building Measures, at the various inter-sessional meetings. The recent ARF Senior Officials Meeting in Langkawi has agreed to move the ARF process towards preventive diplomacy. This is a step forward which will build on the current success of the ARF.

A development which Singapore welcomes is the increasing participation of defence officials in the ARF. Defence officials already participate in some of the ARF inter-sessional meetings as well as the ARF Senior Officials Meetings. The interactions among the defence officials at these meetings are a useful confidence-building measure. The proposal to include defence officials in ARF Ministerial Meetings is a step in the right direction as it will level up the participation of defence officials in the ARF. Singapore believes that the increased involvement of defence officials will strengthen the ARF’s usefulness as a forum to discuss security issues. We recognise, however, that this should be done at a pace that is comfortable to all ARF members. There may be difficulties and challenges ahead as the ARF moves into uncharted territory. But so long as ARF member countries are willing to work together, we will be able to strengthen the forum and thereby enhance regional peace and stability.

While we are building up the newer cooperative groupings, we must not forget the older and time-tested organisations. The Five Power Defence Arrangements (FPDA) has been and continues to be an important element in the regional security framework. Although the geopolitical situation in the region has changed since the FPDA was established, the value of the FPDA has not diminished. It is a deterrent to aggression and thereby promotes regional security.

Singapore is committed to working with other countries in the Asia-Pacific to promote and strengthen the existing multilateral arrangements, as well as to develop new ones as and when the need arises.

Track Two

The cooperative approach to maintaining regional peace and stability extends beyond the building up of bilateral ties and multilateral arrangements at an official level. Non-governmental or Track Two organisations also have a part to play. They add another layer of relationships among the countries in the region. Discussions at the Track Two level are often open and frank and new ideas for enhancing regional peace and stability are often generated. Track Two makes a valuable contribution in surfacing ideas which may later be discussed and adopted at the official, i.e., Track One, level. In fact, in order for Track Two activities to effectively contribute to regional peace and security, the new ideas that are generated should be workable recommendations, if not immediately at least in the foreseeable future.

As an important feature of the ARF Track Two circuit, CSCAP has an important role to play in the regional security process. With the 16 member committees and two associated member committees, CSCAP is almost congruent to the ARF. This means that it can serve a useful role in generating new ideas for cooperation among the ARF member countries. For example, with the ARF moving towards preventive diplomacy and increasing the participation of defence officials, CSCAP could think ahead of the ARF, and explore in detail the types of preventive diplomacy measures that can be adopted-as well as the specific roles that defence officials can play in the ARF and the modalities of such participation.

CSCAP has made substantial progress since its inception. Four CSCAP Working Groups have been established to look into the areas of comprehensive and cooperative security, maritime security, confidence and security building measures in the Asia-Pacific, and security cooperation in the North Pacific. The recommendations from these Working Groups would provide useful ideas that can be considered at the ARF.

Conclusion

It is vital that we all work together, both at the Track One and Two levels, to ensure the security and stability of the Asia-Pacific region. The challenges facing the region are by no means small. Security and stability cannot be taken for granted. Regional countries need to be active, imaginative, and committed to cooperation to enhance security and stability. We also need to engage other extra-regional countries in this effort. Working together is the way ahead. Only then can the Asia-Pacific develop to its fullest potential, and the people of all our countries enjoy a higher standard of living.

The First CSCAP General Meeting today is a significant milestone in the progress of the Council. It is a useful opportunity for the participants to renew acquaintances and to make new friends. It is also a time for CSCAP to consolidate its success and to chart future directions. I wish all participants a successful and fruitful Meeting.

Thank you.