2024 Elections in the West: Are They Helping the Extreme Right?
2024 has been dubbed the “ultimate”[i] election year, with more than 60 countries and territories worldwide undertaking major elections. Some elections in many parts of the West come as the world is transiting through a post-COVID-19 phase amidst further intensifying Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas conflicts and a general economic slowdown. Across the West, the political centre has somewhat eroded, and a sizeable segment of the political right has shifted further to the right. Worryingly, extreme right-wing terrorist incidents in the United States (US) have increased in recent years,[ii] and the threat has “remained significant” and stable in Western Europe.[iii] This article assesses how the extreme right-wing terrorist threat could evolve and take advantage of the inroads the right-wing political movement has made in the just concluded 2024 European Union (EU) parliamentary election and the upcoming US presidential election.
The Far-Right’s Complex Relationship with Mainstream Politics
Right-wing politics is a major and legitimate component of the political landscape in Western democracies, where political affiliations and positions are often broadly grouped as ‘left’ and ‘right’. Across the political spectrum, people with diverse value systems, beliefs and positions hold varying stances on a range of issues. Generally, right-leaning people and groups hold conservative and traditional views on issues such as abortion, same-sex marriage and fiscal policies. The far-right, in itself a broad category, is a subset of right-wing political ideologies that espouse “extreme nationalism, nativist ideologies, and authoritarian tendencies”.[iv] The far-right advocates for lesser (or in some cases no) immigration from non-Western countries and take anti-Islamic, anti-Semitic and anti-LGBTQ+ positions. Some Western far-right groups are also driven by and promote Christian nationalism to replace secular, liberal democracies.[v]
Given the diverse nature of the West’s right-wing political movements, there is often non-standardisation of the use of terms related to the far-right. This article adopts the definition by the political scientist and eminent scholar of the Western far-right, Cas Mudde. According to Mudde, the far-right comprises the radical and extreme right.[vi] While the radical right rejects liberal democracy and promotes an illiberal order, the extreme right rejects democracy altogether,[vii] although sometimes it is challenging to clearly demarcate the two. Some far-right parties have put forward very intolerant political views targeted at particular minority communities, especially Muslims and the LGBTQ+ community. Geertz Wilders, whose party won a shocking victory in the Dutch parliamentary elections in December 2023, for instance, had proposed banning mosques and the Quran in the Netherlands.[viii] The proposal was later retracted during considerations to form a political coalition with moderate parties.[ix] While Geertz later fell out of the running to become the Dutch prime minister, the agenda seemed rather extreme.
For its part, the extreme right can, on occasion, take things further by explicitly calling for violence against communities that it deems undesirable. Unlike the far-right political parties in the West, the extreme right takes an “anti-democratic position towards democracy”[x] and seeks to upend the democratic and liberal order in the West through violence.
Extreme Right-Wing and the 2024 US Presidential Election
In the United States (US), former President Donald Trump’s legal troubles have not dampened his popularity, including among a few extreme right groups. The former president is set to be the Republican Party’s presidential nominee for the November 2024 election in a rematch with the incumbent Joseph Biden. The extreme right in the US gathered momentum during Trump’s first term in office from 2016 to 2020.[xi] This culminated in violent rioting by some Trump supporters and members of extreme right groups such as the Proud Boys, Three Percenters and No White Guilt, at the US Capitol on January 6, 2021.[xii] In the lead-up to the polls, Trump’s rhetoric has been categorised in some quarters as more overtly authoritarian and polarising, raising concerns that if re-elected, his presidency could embolden the extreme right further.[xiii]
The Biden-Trump 2024 election rematch is galvanising the extreme right again, but there are some differences this time around. Curiously, there has been a drop in the public appearances and activities of the Proud Boys, which is unusual and uncharacteristic for a group that promotes and engages in political violence, and which played an important role in the US Capitol insurrection in 2021.[xiv] The greater public scrutiny of the group and the conviction and jailing of its key leaders, such as Enrique Tarrio, who has been sentenced to decades in jail,[xv] could have motivated some to leave the group. Some who left the Proud Boys are believed to have joined other even more extremist groups that have since emerged, such as Active Chaos, Patriot Front and Blood Tribe.[xvi]
There is also potential for violence from the extreme right if Trump does not win the 2024 election.[xvii] Trump’s many legal civil and criminal civil cases and a possible conviction might erode the support of some relatively moderate Republicans.[xviii] But these legal troubles, which the former president alleges are politically motivated and witch hunts, might end up further motivating his hardcore base. Extreme right groups and some of their followers who are serving long jail sentences for their involvement in the 2021 Capitol Hill riots might be banking on Trump’s victory and a subsequent presidential pardon.[xix] Some commentators have gone as far as to claim that if the former president faces jailtime, amid his mounting legal troubles and conviction in the hush money trial,[xx] some extreme right groups and hardcore supporters may even try to mount a jailbreak to free the former president.[xxi] A few experts have also cautioned that, in a worst-case scenario, the US could be headed towards a civil war-like situation,[xxii] and Trump’s court cases and the 2024 presidential election might serve as inflection points.
The extreme right’s conspiratorial narratives related to the election also need to be watched, given their apparent expanding reach. According to one estimate, around a quarter of Americans – an increase from previous years – believe in the QAnon conspiracy.[xxiii] The QAnon conspiracy originated in 2017, and is centred upon the idea that the political opponents of Trump in the US’ Democratic Party are running a secret cabal and child-trafficking ring and are conspiring against the former president. QAnon continues to inspire acts of violence,[xxiv] raising concerns that more incidents might follow in the rest of the year. Another related conspiracy theory is the “Red Caesar”, which promotes the idea that an authoritarian right-wing leader, i.e., Trump, is needed to restore the Republic.
Christian nationalism is also on the rise.[xxv] Some obscure groups and societies, such as the very secretive Society for the American Civic Renewal, have been advocating for a redefining of American politics with a greater role for Christianity.[xxvi] This has not had wide traction previously. However, increasingly some actions and statements of former President Trump are directed at galvanising support from Christian groups,[xxvii] to an extent unseen before. In a video pitch, believed to be for raising funds for his lawsuits and election campaign, he promoted the “God Bless the USA” Bible,[xxviii] which contains religious scripture along with the American Constitution. Trump has also accused Democrats of being anti-Christian and called November 5, the date of the presidential election, as “Christian visibility day”.[xxix]
Extreme Right-Wing and the 2024 EU Parliamentary Elections
Unlike the US presidential system, which has become increasingly politically polarised, a number of countries in Western Europe operate as parliamentary democracies. Also, as the European Union (EU) is a regional bloc, there is no central figure in Europe like Trump who can galvanise the far-right, and the movement is thus more fragmented. But there are still concerns over the inroads the far-right has made in the recently concluded EU parliamentary elections and what that might mean for violence from the extreme right – according to some observers, the far-right’s electoral gains can increase the possibility of violence.[xxx]
There was a steady level of terrorist incidents from the extreme right even whilst far-right parties were making significant gains in their national politics in the past few years in the EU countries.[xxxi] While the data does not show a clear trend of a rise or fall in terrorist incidents and arrests, there was a steady level of activity that should warrant continued attention to the problem. The number of “completed”, “failed” and “foiled” attacks remained low in single digits.[xxxii]But there were a considerable number of arrests for “right-wing terrorist offences” in the EU member states, with France, Germany and Italy having the greatest number of arrests.[xxxiii]
In a few countries in Europe, such as Hungary and Italy, far-right parties have become part of governing coalitions in recent years.[xxxiv] The far-right’s capture of political power in these countries reflects a sea change in political sentiments, also noticeable to some degree in other parts of Western Europe. In France and Germany, far-right political parties have gained significant momentum in the political opposition. However, their rise is also being challenged by parties in the political centre and the left, which still constitute the core political base in these countries. The Alternative for Germany (AfD), a far-right political party which adopts some of the most hardline positions on immigration and minorities, has gained greater traction as a political force in recent years.[xxxv] In the recently concluded EU parliamentary elections, it is expected to improve further on its performance from the 2019 election .[xxxvi] This is even while the AfD is suspected of supporting extremism.[xxxvii] Entities like the AfD also face significant opposition from civil society groups, who organise counter-movements and protests.
In other non-EU Western democracies, such as the United Kingdom (UK) and Australia, the far-right still operates very much on the fringes. But even in these countries, certain far-right narratives on immigration and conservative policies might be slipping into the political ‘mainstream’ as centrist parties try to appease voters leaning to the far-right.
Thus far, the far-right’s impact has been largely seen in the national elections of individual countries in Europe. The surge by far-right coalitions Identity and Democracy (ID) and the European Conservatives and Reformists (ERC)in the 2024 EU parliamentary elections on the other hand, could shape the character and influence the agenda of the regional bloc. There are, however, disagreements within the far-right parties and among their leaders over issues such as support for Vladimir Putin in Russia’s war on Ukraine and the deportation of immigrants.
Concerns over the infiltration of state apparatuses, such as the police, the military services and other institutions by right-wing extremists have further increased recently. A “culture of extremism” with an increase in sympathy for far-right ideas and racism has developed among some segments of the UK and European police forces.[xxxviii] The situation is particularly acute in Germany, where at least 400 officers at various levels of government are currently being investigated for having right-wing extremist views or conspiracy ideas.[xxxix] Some of these officials have been found to have spread extremist right-wing ideas, engage in racist rhetoric and “relativize Nazi crimes”.[xl] The political inroads by the far-right in the EU bloc can make this threat even more pronounced.
It is as yet unclear how the inroads by the far-right political parties in the 2024 EU parliamentary elections will impact extreme right-linked terrorism in the member countries. It is possible that the political gains of the far-right can appease and placate some demands of the extreme right, as some policy positions of the far-right may appear to come close to what the extreme right seeks to achieve through violent acts. But there is also a limit to the far-right’s influence in EU policies. Although the far-right parties have increased their numbers in the EU Parliament and would seek to steer the bloc,[xli] they may only be able to exert limited influence in major policies. The set-up of the EU Parliament, with an independent EU Council helming it, also makes it harder for a far-right takeover of the institution. Also, some centrist and left parties have formed a firewall to not work with the far-right parties. The far-right ID coalition excluded the AfD in the lead-up to the EU parliamentary elections, considered a major shake-up in right-wing politics in Europe, as a key leader of the latter sought to downplay the role of the SS, a Nazi paramilitary group, in manning concentration camps during World War II. It is therefore possible that while the far-right is gaining ground politically, some in the extreme right may not see it as a gain for their movement.
Countering the Extreme Right
Countering the extreme right is relatively under-explored. Given the increasing mainstream political association of some right-wing extremist sentiments, it is likely to become even harder to challenge the extreme right. However, some policy approaches can help limit the spread of extremist sentiments and violence associated with the ideology. In the UK context, for instance, where right-wing extremism among security forces has emerged as a concern, enhancing vetting processes, addressing “hypermasculinity and racism”, and improving accountability mechanisms have been highlighted as relevant approaches that can help manage the threat.[xlii] While these approaches were derived based on the UK context, which is also set for a general election on July 4, they can also be applicable in the EU countries that share parallels with the UK. Also, “reducing motives”, “reducing means”, and “removing opportunities” for violent actors can be some ways through which law enforcement can lower the possibility of violence happening in and around the election period,[xliii] especially in the US, where the political landscape is extremely polarised.
Conclusion
The 2024 elections in the US and the EU might be watersheds. In the EU, they could usher in an era of a shift to the political right, one that has already happened at the national level in some countries. Trends in the US suggest there is a possibility that the presidential election in November could be a major inflection point. While it will be an important year for the far-right, it remains to be seen how it will impact the extreme right movement. Caveats apply, but the situation appears to be more polarised and volatile in the US than in the EU, with a potentially greater degree of large-scale violence from the extreme right in the former.
About the Author
Kalicharan Veera Singam is a Senior Analyst with the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR), a constituent unit of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore. He can be reached at [email protected].
Thumbnail photo by Colin Lloyd on Unsplash
Citations
[i] Koh Ewe, “The Ultimate Election Year: All the Elections Around the World in 2024,” TIME, December 28, 2023, https://time.com/6550920/world-elections-2024/.
[ii] “Right-Wing Extremist Terrorism in the United States,” Anti-Defamation League, November 15, 2023, https://www.adl.org/resources/report/right-wing-extremist-terrorism-united-states.
[iii] Europol, European Union Terrorism Situation and Trend Report 2023 (TE-SAT) (Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2023), p. 43, https://www.europol.europa.eu/publication-events/main-reports/european-union-terrorism-situation-and-trend-report-2023-te-sat.
[iv] Dictionary of Populism, “Far or Extreme Right,” European Centre for Populism Studies (ECPS), https://www.populismstudies.org/Vocabulary/far-or-extreme-right/.
[v] Jason Wilson, “Revealed: Far-Right Figures Try to Create Christian Nationalist ‘Haven’ in Kentucky,” The Guardian, January 20, 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/jan/20/kentucky-far-right-community-real-estate-development.
[vi] Cas Mudde, “The Far-Right Threat to Liberal Democracy in Europe, Explained,” Vox, December 21, 2022, https://www.vox.com/world/23516807/europe-right-wing-parties-orban-meloni.
[vii] Dictionary of Populisim, “Far or Extreme Right.”
[viii] “Dutch Election Winner Geert Wilders Scraps Mosque Ban Proposal,” Euronews, January 8, 2024, https://www.euronews.com/2024/01/08/dutch-election-winner-geert-wilders-scraps-proposal-banning-mosques-and-quran.
[ix] Ibid.
[x] C-REX Compendium, “What Is Right-Wing Extremism?” Center for Research on Extremism (C-REX), https://www.sv.uio.no/c-rex/english/groups/compendium/what-is-right-wing-extremism.html.
[xi] Aurelien Mondon and Antonia Vaughan, “White Supremacist Extremism and the Far Right in the U.S.,” Political Extremism and Radicalism: Far-Right Groups in America, Cengage Learning (EMEA) Ltd., 2021.
[xii] Masood Farivar, “Researchers: More Than a Dozen Extremist Groups Took Part in Capitol Riots,” VoA, January 16, 2021, https://www.voanews.com/a/2020-usa-votes_researchers-more-dozen-extremist-groups-took-part-capitol-riots/6200832.html.
[xiii] David Smith, “’A Campaign for Vengeance’: Critics Warn of a Radical Second Trump Term,” The Guardian, March 17, 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/17/critics-warn-radical-second-trump-term.
[xiv] Kieran Doyle, “United States: Intensifying Polarization and the Looming Presidential Election,” Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), January 17, 2024, https://acleddata.com/conflict-watchlist-2024/usa/.
[xv] Mike Wendling, “Ex-Proud Boys Leader Enrique Tarrio Jailed for 22 Years for Capitol Riot,” BBC News, September 6, 2023, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-66712589.
[xvi] Tess Owen, “Headed into Election Year, Proud Boys Appear to Be on Decline,” VICE News, January 5, 2024, https://www.vice.com/en/article/epv894/headed-into-election-year-proud-boys-appear-to-be-on-decline.
[xvii] Steve Contorno and Kate Sullivan, “Trump Doesn’t Rule Out Political Violence If He Loses, and Other Takeaways From His Time Interview,” CNN, April 30, 2024, https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/30/politics/trump-political-violence-2024-time-interview/index.html.
[xviii] Nimo Omer, “Thursday Briefing: Will Trump’s Day in Court Finally Put off His Loyal Supporters?” The Guardian, April 4, 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/04/thursday-briefing-trump-court-finally-stormy-daniels-hush-money-supporters.
[xix] Ed Pilkington, “‘January 6 Never Ended’: Alarm at Trump Pardon Pledge for Capitol Insurrectionists,” The Guardian, January 6, 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/jan/06/trump-pardon-january-6-rioters-if-elected-president.
[xx] Stephen Collinson, “Trump conviction heralds a somber and volatile moment in American history,” CNN, May 31, 2024, https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/31/politics/trump-conviction-consequences-analysis/index.html.
[xxi] Ibid.
[xxii] Bruce Hoffman and Jacob Ware, “Opinion: Is the US on the Brink of Another Civil War?” CNN, March 16, 2024, https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/16/opinions/us-brink-of-civil-war-hoffman-ware/index.html.
[xxiii] David Smith, “Nearly One in Four Americans Believe Political Violence Justified to ‘Save’ US,” The Guardian, October 25, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/oct/25/us-political-violence-justified-survey.
[xxiv] Ryan J. Reilly, “Ex-Military Member Charged with Crashing into FBI Office Had Online Links to QAnon, Report Says,” NBC4 Washington, April 4, 2024, https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/national-international/fbi-atlanta-man-qanon/3583677/.
[xxv] There is also a sharper conservative turn among a faction within the Republican Party and their supporters. The right-leaning Supreme Court of the United States reversed Roe vs Wade, which granted a constitutional right to abortion. The Arizona Supreme Court’s complete ban on abortion in April 2024 and a Christian prayer “in tongues” led by the Alabama House Chair before the court’s ban raise concerns that a certain segment of the right might be pushing for ultra-conservative positions based on Christian theology.
[xxvi] Jason Wilson, “Revealed: US Conservative Thinktank’s Links to Extremist Fraternal Order,” The Guardian, March 11, 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/11/claremont-institute-society-for-american-civic-renewal-links.
[xxvii] Adam Gabbatt, “Christian Nationalists Embrace Trump as Their Savior – Will They Be His?” The Guardian, April 7, 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/07/christian-nationalists-embrace-trump-as-their-savior-will-they-be-his.
[xxviii] Rachel Treisman, “Cash-Strapped Trump Is Now Selling $60 Bibles, U.S. Constitution Included,” NPR, March 27, 2024, https://www.npr.org/2024/03/27/1241186975/donald-trump-bible-god-bless-usa.
[xxix] Sarah Posner, “Trump’s ‘Christian Day of Visibility’ Tantrum Is Also a Warning,” MSNBC, April 4, 2024, https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/trump-christian-day-of-visibility-trans-rights-rcna146225.
[xxx] Maik Baumgärtner et al., “Why Are Attacks and Incitement on the Rise in Germany?” SPIEGEL International, May 13, 2024, https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/new-hatred-for-politicians-why-are-attacks-and-incitement-on-the-rise-in-germany-a-06bdd32d-d64e-4446-9b34-440fe06703ec.
[xxxi] Europol, European Union Terrorism Situation and Trend Report 2023 (TE-SAT), p. 43.
[xxxii] Ibid., p. 45.
[xxxiii] Ibid., p. 48.
[xxxiv] Mudde, “The Far-Right Threat to Liberal Democracy in Europe, Explained.”
[xxxv] Julie VanDusky, “A Far-Right Political Group Is Gaining Popularity in Germany – But So, Too, Are Protests Against It,” The Conversation, March 7, 2024, https://theconversation.com/a-far-right-political-group-is-gaining-popularity-in-germany-but-so-too-are-protests-against-it-223151.
[xxxvi] Nette Nostlinger, “German conservatives first, far-right AfD second in EU election,” Politico, June 9, 2024, https://www.politico.eu/article/conservatives-finish-first-germany-eu-election-early-projection-cdu-csu/.
[xxxvii] Damien McGuinness, “Germany: Court Says Far-Right AfD Is Suspected of Extremism,” BBC News, May 13, 2024, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-69003733.
[xxxviii] Mark Townsend, “Growing ‘Culture of Extremism’ Among UK and European Police Forces, Report Warns,” The Guardian, July 10, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jul/10/growing-culture-of-extremism-among-uk-and-european-police-forces-report-warns.
[xxxix] Oliver Towfigh Nia, “Hundreds of Far-Right Extremists Have Infiltrated German Police System: Report,” Anadolu Ajansı, April 4, 2024, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/hundreds-of-far-right-extremists-have-infiltrated-german-police-system-report/3183816.
[xl] Ayhan Șimșek, “14 German Police Officers Under Investigation for Suspected Far-Right Ties,” Anadolu Ajansı, February 21, 2024, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/14-german-police-officers-under-investigation-for-suspected-far-right-ties/3144173.
[xli] Philip Blenkinsop, Europe’s far right seeks policy influence to match seat gains, Reuters, June 10, 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/europes-far-right-seeks-policy-influence-match-seat-gains-2024-06-09/.
[xlii] Claudia Wallner, Jessica White and Simon Copeland, Defending Our Defenders: Preventing Far-Right Extremism in UK Security Forces (London: Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies, 2024), https://static.rusi.org/defending-our-defenders-final-proof.pdf.
[xliii] Jacob Ware, “Preventing U.S. Election Violence in 2024,” Council on Foreign Relations, April 17, 2024, https://www.cfr.org/report/preventing-us-election-violence-2024.
