Right-Wing Extremism in Australia: Current Threats and Trends in a Diverse and Diffuse Threatscape
The Australian extreme right currently represents an energetic and diverse threat to the safety and security of the Australian public. The extreme right-wing (XRW) generally has been described as a “moving target… [that] is ever changing and evolving whilst being studied”.[1] However, it appears that the online environment, ideological idiosyncratisation and the decreasing age of individuals associated with the Australian extreme right have augmented that challenge further. This evolution has no linear dimension or direction, and is seemingly able to maintain momentum despite the best efforts of counter terrorism authorities.
Introduction
In the past several years in Australia, there have been numerous high-profile incidences. The historic Museum of Democracy in the Australian Capital Territory was the victim of a destructive arson attack in broad daylight. A plot to impersonate federal police to enact a coup was also effectively disrupted across several states, while religious right-wing extremists ambushed and killed law enforcement and a civilian in the state of Queensland. Additionally, numerous individuals across the country associated with extreme right organisations have been charged with Terrorism Act offences, while the country has also borne witness to offences relating to the manufacture of explosives and firearms.
Amidst this, questions continue to be asked of the motivation behind the mass-casualty attack in a Sydney shopping centre on April 13, 2024 by the perpetrator Joe Cauchi, in which he appears to have preferentially targeted women (and a female infant). Cauchi killed six people and wounded 12 others – most of them women, revealing a gender-based dimension to the violence.[2]
This article reviews the current landscape of the Australian extreme right, and then considers the persistent trends and challenges posed by online extremism, the engagement of young people and threats to critical infrastructure. It concludes with a threat assessment. Broadly, it is argued the extreme right is not a homogenous entity in any geographic context, but, in Australia, it is rather represented by a series of overlapping milieus, spanning the ethnocentric, the religious, the anti-government and the idiosyncratic extreme right.[3]
Current Extreme Right Threatscape
Historically, the most visible facet of the Australian extreme right has been the ethnocentric milieu, which comprises neo-Nazism and other forms of fascism, white supremacy and white nationalism.[4] Organised groups remain prominent both online and offline. For example, online groups such as the Nationalist Socialist Movement Australia (NSMA), part of the United States (US)’s Nationalist Socialist Movement, have been issuing ideological statements aimed at recruiting new members by warning of declining white demographics and of the risk of being “slaughtered” by a new “non-white majority”.[5]
Rinaldo Nazzaro (aka Norman Spear, or Roman Wolf), the Russian-affiliated leader of The Base – a US neo-Nazi accelerationist group which is a designated terror group in Australia – advised Australian followers to establish a separate organisation, engage in survival and tactical training, and undertake the illegal acquisition of firearms to prepare for when they are “ready to “go hot” or when the “Collapse” occurs”.[6] Offline, both the Nationalist Socialist Network (NSN) and the Sturmjäger Resistance (SR) have reportedly been escalating recruitment initiatives.[7] A number of individuals associated with the extreme right, including the NSN, are facing terrorism charges in a number of states, including New South Wales and South Australia, for a range of offences including acts in preparation for a terrorism offence. Despite this being the most visible milieu of the contemporary extreme right, it is no longer the most lethal in the country.[8]
The religious extreme right, in a single event, has become the most lethal milieu in recent years. On December 12, 2022, two Queensland police officers approached a rural property at Wieambilla as part of a missing persons case. Nathaniel Train, a former school principal, had not made contact with his family in New South Wales since October 9, so Queensland Police were conducting a welfare check and following up on an outstanding warrant at the home of his brother Gareth and partner Stacey Train. When the four police constables arrived at the property, they were ambushed by the Trains. Two constables were shot and then executed at close range, while one constable escaped and another hid in nearby bushland.
The Trains lit a grass field to attempt to flush out the remaining constable, which prompted the arrival of their neighbour, Alan Dare, whom they fatally shot in the back. Police responded and a six-hour siege commenced, which eventually concluded when Special Emergency Response officers breached the property and allegedly shot and killed the Trains. The Trains, it would later manifest, subscribed to a premillennial extremist Christian ideology.[9] This event highlighted the presence of the extreme religious right in Australia, which has been well established in other geographic contexts through diverse movements including Christian Identity, the Wotansvolk, the Order of Nine Angles, the World Church of the Creator and others.[10]
The anti-government milieu also retains its vibrancy, regularly buoyed by conspiratorial vogue. Again, as a contrast to the recent simple plots of the ethnocentric milieu, the anti-government milieu has demonstrated more sophistication. Beyond the December 31, 2021 arson attack by anti-government individuals on Australia’s former Parliament House, now the Museum of Australian Democracy, there have been more elaborate plots.
In one instance, a South Australian woman was part of an interstate group which sought to overthrow the government. She was alleged to have been involved in ordering 470 fake federal police badges, as part of a plot to impersonate the police and arrest politicians and public servants.[11] This was disrupted by counter terrorism authorities in 2021. Despite the plot having been doomed to failure, it represented a substantive escalation from the anti-government milieu, which had to that point largely been represented by sovereign citizens incurring traffic offences or becoming subject to High Risk Terrorism Offenders legislation while in prison for other charges.
Finally, the Australian threatscape is also threatened by ideologically motivated individuals who represent more idiosyncratic extremism, where general beliefs might be extreme right, but there exist specific beliefs which contradict others. This phenomenon was recently examined by Brace et al., who suggested that some individuals have mixed or unclear ideologies which are difficult to categorise.[12] An example of this comes from a hostage situation in the town of Windang, New South Wales, where an individual associated with the extreme right also held other incoherent or contradictory beliefs.
Perhaps another manifestation of this comes from male supremacists (elsewhere referred to as involuntary celibates, or incels), who typically perpetrate extreme gender-motivated violence and terrorism. Examples include Scott Beirle, Elliot Rodgers, and the unnamed teenager who attacked a massage parlour in Toronto in 2020. In Australia, on April 13, 2024, Joe Cauchi committed murder at Sydney’s Westfield Bondi Junction mall, where he preferentially targeted women. It is not yet known if ideology was a factor in this attack as investigations and an inquiry are still underway. The attack has nevertheless been incorporated in extreme right narratives. It was discussed on the White Lives Matter Telegram channel and described as an “anti-white” attack encouraged by Jews, despite the perpetrator being identified as a white male.[13]
Since November 28, 2022, Australia has maintained its National Terrorism Threat Level from Probable (mid-range) to Possible (low range), citing a moderated threat from Salafi-jihadists, an increase in issue-motivated extremism, and the persistent recruitment and radicalisation efforts of ideologically motivated violent extremists.[14] Despite this, there have been numerous government inquiries into the threat of right-wing extremism, including the Parliamentary Joint Committee on Intelligence and Security Inquiry in 2021 (which lapsed), the Legal and Social Issues Committee Inquiry into Extremism in Victoria in 2022, and now the Senate Legal and Constitutional Affairs Inquiry into Right Wing Extremist Movements in Australia in 2024.
In the latter inquiry, Australia’s intelligence authority, the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO), claimed that ideologically motivated violent extremism accounted for 25 percent of its current priority counter terrorism caseload.[15] Australian right-wing extremists[16] were noted to have been engaging in private conversations domestically and internationally, with some aspiring to accelerate a race war or potentially attack critical infrastructure. The Australian Federal Police (AFP), in the same inquiry, identified that, in the past four years and over 40 joint counter terrorism operations, they had charged 58 people.[17]
In 2023 alone, five people were charged following five operations, including two right-wing extremists and one individual with a mixed or unclear ideology. The AFP suggested that the number of individuals associated with such ideologies would continue to increase.[18] This inquiry further brought to the fore some key foci in the right-wing threatscape in Australia: online extremism, the engagement of young people, and threats to critical infrastructure.
Trends in the Australian Threatscape
ASIO has indicated that the XRW threat has been abetted by the online extremist environment, which enables fast and often free connection with individuals around the world. The Department of Home Affairs echoed this concern regarding the online environment, and further suggested that the “nexus” between online extremism and youth radicalisation remains a concern.[19] The AFP further noted that the online environment is attractive for extremists, allowing for rapid growth and geographical diversity, the dissemination of ideology, and operational support.[20] Indeed, greater time spent online is thought to increase the opportunity for chance encounters with offensive materials – a consideration proposed by scholars in 2016.[21]
On the burgeoning online gaming sphere, the Australian eSafety Commissioner recently released data stating that 20 percent of adolescent gamers had seen or heard hate speech online, 11 percent had seen or heard misogynistic ideas, and 8 percent had seen or heard ideas regarding the superiority of one nationality, race, religion or culture over another.[22] Academic scholarship augments this, where a survey by Costello et al. found that 46.3 percent of young people had encountered negative material pertaining to ethnicity or race, 24.8 percent had encountered negative material advocating hatred, and 19.9 percent had encountered negative material advocating violence.[23] Going forward, the online environment will continue to be an avenue where Australian right-wing extremists can project their presence, propagandise and recruit. Indeed, neo-Nazi groups such as Antipodean Resistance and Identity Australia once used the online domain to make it clear they were exclusively interested in recruiting young people.
The engagement of young people by XRW entities has also been a noted feature of the Australian security landscape for the past few years. AFP stated that in 2021, they conducted operational activities against individuals aged between 11 and 16.[24] This caseload included young people planning or preparing for acts that would meet the terrorism offence threshold – including the production of explosives. Young people are increasingly being engaged by peers or online extremists during critical developmental periods, when they are developing their identities and “learning different forms of socialisation”, and potentially experiencing social dislocation, mental health or neurodiversity challenges, or traumatic events.[25]
This is buttressed by emerging scholarship which has increasingly exposed the presence of Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACEs) in the extreme right milieu,[26] and the presence of neurodiversity across the motivational spectrum (without it necessarily being a causal factor).[27] These vulnerabilities may contribute to the overall susceptibility of young people to supporting violent ideologies and their strategies for social change.
Separately, ASIO recently also suggested that targeting critical infrastructure such as power grids, electrical substations and railways is a possibility.[28] The potentiality of critical infrastructure being targeted comes with the proliferation of accelerationist strategies and ideologies within extreme right contexts. Siege, an anthology of pro-Nazi essays by James Mason, promotes accelerationism as a way to achieve “saturation point” – where society becomes so out of sorts and corroded that the entire system collapses.[29] This was promoted heavily on Ironmarch around 2015 (leading to a fringe set of beliefs categorised as “Siege culture”),[30] and has since become popular with the ethnocentric milieu, particularly including Christchurch terrorist Brenton Tarrant.
While accelerationism can constitute part of an ideology,[31] it can also be used as a strategy to hasten the collapse of society. The Terrorgram publication Militant Accelerationism suggests numerous avenues for the targeting of critical infrastructure to create crises which discomfort the masses (“electricity presides over their life as their great provider, never forget this”),[32] and encourages kneejerk governance which erodes social unity and trust. While terrorism is sometimes defined by its threat to life and targeting of civilians,[33] the ideological and strategic prominence of targeting critical infrastructure in recent years cannot be discounted.
Calibrating Future Threats
While ASIO maintains the current risk of terrorism as “Possible”, the precise calibration of terror threats may be more of an art than a science. This is due to the unpredictability of lone actors, and the paucity of knowledge regarding idiosyncratic forms of right-wing extremism, which may not be readily identifiable or reportable by the broader Australian public. In the 2024 Senate inquiry, ASIO suggested that possible attacks would use simple, low-cost weapons (such as knives) and tactics, and would most likely occur in crowded places in major cities, such as shopping centres, or by targeting critical infrastructure.[34] Such simple weaponry is particularly difficult to monitor or prohibit, while crowded spaces are difficult to entirely secure. Nevertheless, Pantucci and Singam suggest that Australia was the most affected Asia-Pacific country by extreme right-wing violence in recent years, noting the persistent challenge posed by neo-Nazis, but conclude that the threat as of 2023 had plateaued in the West despite its increasingly transnational nature.[35]
It is this transnational nature which makes the Australian threatscape so subject to the rise and fall of the tides elsewhere, both offline and online. The online environment is a well-established vector for the proliferation and promotion of extreme right ideologies (both defined and idiosyncratic), which can be readily disseminated to vulnerable young people. Synchronously, such ideologies may be consumed by susceptible individuals with anti-government or religious outlooks, and may recast their worldviews into ones beset by oppression, decadence or threat. This can lead to ideological and conspiratorial interpretations of geopolitics, the glamourisation of the dark celebrities of extreme right violence, and the justification and legitimisation of violence (often constructed as “self-defence”), and could potentially inspire illicit activities or violence, either alone or in unison with others. It preys upon the vulnerable, the young and the misinformed alike.
Pertinently, the Australian extreme right in all its manifestations and across its milieus continues to pose a threat to the lives of Australian citizens domestically through these challenges. The result of this diffuse and diverse activity has been the emphasis on law enforcement: from the ideological calibration of law enforcement as valid targets, to the attempted impersonation of them, through to the ambush and execution of them without provocation. This, in addition to the existing targets of XRW violence, such as ethnic and religious minorities, further demonstrates the diverse and wide target-set thus far exhibited by the milieus.
Conclusion
To conclude, the Australian extreme right-wing landscape is defined by its considerable diversity, diffusion and rapid evolution in nonlinear ways. It is a moving target, with nonlinear expansion and momentum. The online environment is simply an information vector for extremists, but is nonetheless one that allows for extremist attitudes, narratives and beliefs to be disseminated and socialised – especially among young people. Young people are increasingly being targeted for recruitment by extremist organisations and individuals, and being arrested or charged in association with terrorism act offences. While threats have typically manifested as threats to life, threats against critical infrastructure are being maintained in extremist discussions online and would allow for the enactment of popular accelerationist ideology. The Australian extreme right continues to be a lethal – if difficult to predict – threat to the Australian public generally and to Australian law enforcement specifically.
About The Author
Dr Kristy Campion is Senior Lecturer of Terrorism and Security Studies at the Australian Graduate School of Policing and Security, Charles Sturt University, New South Wales, Australia. She can be reached at [email protected].
Thumbnail photo by Fabien Maurin on Unsplash
Citations
[1] Donald Holbrook, “Far Right and Islamist Extremist Discourses: Shifting Patterns of Enmity,” in Extreme Right Wing Political Violence and Terrorism, eds. Max Taylor, Donald Holbrook and P.M Currie (New York: Bloomsbury Academic and Professional, 2013).
[2] Catherine Hanrahan and Jesse Hyland, “NSW Police Commissioner Karen Webb Says Bondi Junction Stabbing Offender Targeted Women as Investigators Trawl for Evidence,” ABC News Australia, April 15, 2024, https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-04-15/westfield-bondi-attack-stabbing-investigation/103706698.
[3] Kristy Campion, Mark Nolan and Nick O’Brien, “Framing the Australian Extreme Right: Proposing a Threefold Typology with Consideration of Legislation and Listing Regulations,” Journal of Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism, Vol. 18, No. 3 (2023), pp. 1-25.
[4] Ibid.
[5] “’Our Patience Has Reached Its Limits’: Australian Neo-Nazis Urge Immediate Action to Combat White Population Decline,” SITE Intelligence Group, 2024.
[6] “Accelerationist Paramilitary Founder Advises Australian on Forming Group, Acquiring Firearms to ‘Go Hot’,” SITE Intelligence Group, January 30, 2024, https://ent.siteintelgroup.com/Far-Right-Far-Left-Threat/accelerationist-paramilitary-founder-advises-australian-on-forming-group-acquiring-firearms-to-go-hot.html.
[7] “Neo-Nazi Group Issues Recruiting Call in Us, Europe, Australia after Members ‘Arrested’,” SITE Intelligence Group, November 21, 2023, https://ent.siteintelgroup.com/Far-Right-Far-Left-Threat/neo-nazi-group-issues-recruiting-call-in-us-europe-australia-after-members-arrested.html.
[8] Bearing in mind that the Australian citizen and ethnocentric white supremacist, Brenton Tarrant, conducted his attack in New Zealand.
[9] QPS Media, “Investigation Update: Wieambilla Shooting Event,” Queensland Police News, February 16, 2023, https://mypolice.qld.gov.au/news/2023/02/16/investigation-update-wieambilla-shooting-event/.
[10] Encyclopedia of Whitepower: A Sourcebook of the Radical Racist Right, ed. Jeffrey Kaplan (New York: Rowman and Littlefield, 2000); Jeffrey Kaplan, “America’s Apocalyptic Literature of the Radical Right,” International Sociology, Vol. 33, No. 4 (2018), pp. 503-522, https://doi.org/10.1177/0268580918775583; Mattias Gardell, Gods of the Blood: The Pagan Revival and White Separatism (London: Duke University Press, 2003).
[11] Eric Tlozek, “Peterborough Woman Teresa Van Lieshout Arrested Over Fake Police Badges,” ABC News Australia, September 10, 2021, https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-10/peterborough-woman-arrested-over-fake-police-badges/100452416.
[12] Lewys Brace, Stephane J. Baele and Debbie Ging, “Where Do ‘Mixed, Unclear, and Unstable’ Ideologies Come From? A Data-Driven Answer Centred on the Incelosphere,” Journal of Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism, Vol. 19, No. 2 (2024), pp. 103-124, https://doi.org/10.1080/18335330.2023.2226667.
[13] “WLM April 17 Weekly Report: Demonstrations, Recruitment, Propaganda Disseminations in US, Europe,” SITE Intelligence Group, April 17, 2024, https://ent.siteintelgroup.com/Far-Right-Far-Left-Threat/wlm-april-17-weekly-report-demonstrations-recruitment-propaganda-disseminations-in-us-europe.html.
[14] Australian National Security, “Current National Terrorism Threat Level,” November 28, 2022, https://www.nationalsecurity.gov.au/national-threat-level/current-national-terrorism-threat-level.
[15] Australian Security Intelligence Organisation, “ASIO Submission to the Legal and Constitutional Affairs References Committee,” Inquiry into Right Wing Extremist Movements in Australia (Canberra: Parliament of Australia, 2024), https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Legal_and_Constitutional_Affairs/RWExtremists23/Submissions.
[16] Whom ASIO refers to as “nationalist and racists violent extremists”, or NRVE.
[17] Australian Federal Police, Inquiry into Right Wing Extremist Movements in Australia (Canberra: Parliament of Australia, 2024), https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Legal_and_Constitutional_Affairs/RWExtremists23/Submissions.
[18] Ibid.
[19] Department of Home Affairs, Inquiry into Right Wing Extremist Movements in Australia (Canberra: Parliament of Australia, 2024), https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Legal_and_Constitutional_Affairs/RWExtremists23/Submissions.
[20] Australian Federal Police, Inquiry into Right Wing Extremist Movements in Australia.
[21] Matthew Costello et al., “Who Views Online Extremism? Individual Attributes Leading to Exposure,” Computers in Human Behavior, Vol. 63 (2016), pp. 311-320, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chb.2016.05.033.
[22] Office of the eSafety Commissioner, Inquiry into Right Wing Extremist Movements in Australia (Canberra: Parliament of Australia, 2024), https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Legal_and_Constitutional_Affairs/RWExtremists23/Submissions.
[23] Costello et al., “Who Views Online Extremism?” p. 316.
[24] Australian Federal Police, Inquiry into Right Wing Extremist Movements in Australia.
[25] Ibid.
[26] Michael K. Logan, Steven Windisch and Pete Simi, “Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACE), Adolescent Misconduct, and Violent Extremism: A Comparison of Former Left-Wing and Right-Wing Extremists,” Terrorism and Political Violence, Vol. 36, No. 1 (2022), pp. 1-20. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2022.2098725; Steven Windisch et al., “Measuring the Extent and Nature of Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACE) Among Former White Supremacists,” Terrorism and Political Violence, Vol. 34, No. 6 (2022), pp. 1207-1228, https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2020.1767604.
[27] Fiona Druitt et al., “Do Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD) Increase the Risk of Terrorism Engagement? A Literature Review of the Research Evidence, Theory and Interpretation, and a Discussion Reframing the Research-Practice Debate,” Journal of Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism, Vol. 18, No. 3 (2023), pp. 307-332, https://doi.org/10.1080/18335330.2022.2158361.
[28] Australian Security Intelligence Organisation, “ASIO Submission to the Legal and Constitutional Affairs References Committee.”
[29] James Mason, Siege, 2nd ed. (Ironmarch.org, 2015).
[30] Benjamin Lee, “What Is Siege Culture?” CREST Security Review, No. 14 (2022), https://crestresearch.ac.uk/comment/what-is-siege-culture/.
[31] “White Supremacists Embrace ‘Accelerationism’,” Anti-Defamation League, April 16, 2019, https://www.adl.org/blog/white-supremacists-embrace-accelerationism.
[32] Militant Accelerationism: A Collective Handbook (A Terrorgram Publication, n.d.), p. 47.
[33] The Routledge Handbook of Terrorism Research, ed. Alex Peter Schmid (New York: Routledge, 2011).
[34] Australian Security Intelligence Organisation, “ASIO Submission to the Legal and Constitutional Affairs References Committee.”
[35] Raffaello Pantucci and Kalicharan Veera Singam, “Extreme Right-Wing in the West,” Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses, Vol. 16, No. 1 (2024), pp. 106-111, https://www.rsis.edu.sg/rsis-publication/icpvtr/counter-terrorist-trends-and-analyses-ctta-volume-16-issue-01/.
[36] Shandon Harris-Hogan, “Is Far-Right Violence Actually Increasing in Australia?: Tracking Far-Right Terrorism and Violence in Australia Between 1990–2020,” Perspectives on Terrorism, Vol. 17, No. 2 (2023), pp. 1-29, https://www.jstor.org/stable/27255590.
