Professor Daron Shaw, the University Teaching Professor and Frank C. Erwin Chair of State Politics in the Department of Government at The University of Texas at Austin, led an RSIS Webinar on “On the Home Stretch: The Race to 270 and the Domestic and Foreign Policy Implications of the 2024 Elections” on 2 Oct 2024.
Prof Shaw gave an overview of the Presidential race, including President Joe Biden’s decision to drop out in late July following his disastrous debate performance and the launch of Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign. He noted that Harris has more paths to victory than Biden, while also winning over 68 percent of the 17 percent of voters that expressed distaste for both Biden and Trump.
However, the race still looks like it will be close. Harris is polling better among youth voters than Biden, but voters are still concerned about rising prices. Polling data also suggests that voters like Trump’s policies, but not his personality, while the reverse is true for Harris. The outcome will hinge on a handful of swing states such as Pennsylvania. Prof Shaw also expressed concerns for a potential nightmare scenario in which state legislatures may override or refuse to certify municipal or country-level election results, describing such actions as corrosive and damaging for America.
Prof Shaw noted that foreign policy does not necessarily play a large role in elections, but failures can give the impression that an incumbent President is weak. He also observed that neither Republicans nor Democrats have a coherent foreign policy amid changes to their support base. This raises the possibility of changes to America’s foreign policy stance in the future, especially since young voters do not appear to view China as a critical military threat.
